Looking like an El Niño year.

(48 Posts)

Very briefly, more later!

Looks like its going to be an El Niño year this year. How is it going to affect our weather? Well, for the summer, the affect on Europe really isnt understood. It tends to get swamped by other factors. However it does seem to be associated with very cold winters.

So there you go, your first winter 2014-15 weather forecast grin

captainmummy Wed 23-Apr-14 08:40:52

Not another cold winter! 3 in a row, then 1 wet, then cold again? I'm emigrating to spain.

VivaLeBeaver Wed 23-Apr-14 08:41:37

Didnt the last El Niño summer have lots of rain?

magimedi Wed 23-Apr-14 09:10:06

It's going to be a long hot summer.

I've said it before - I've ordered it! grin

Its true that in the last El Niño year (2009) had that extraordinarily wet July but ironically that was the year the Met office forecast the famous 'bbq summer' grin That following winter saw the most severe winter in 30 years.

I think that as its not really forecast to get into a proper El Niño until the summer, its not really going to influence our summer. It takes time for the effects to propogate world wide. Remember this is a phenomenon based around ocean circulation in the pacific.

Meglet Wed 23-Apr-14 20:30:05

I had smashing sunflowers in Summer 09. Never had anything like it since.

I can't even get my sunflower seeds to hatch this year sad I shall try harder just in case!

digerd Fri 25-Apr-14 20:50:22

SE>
The first rainy dull, miserable day for ages today.
When I was into all the bother of seedsowing etc, I bought a heated propagating covered tray which sprouted practically overnight.
Never tried Sunflowers though.
Like the thought of yours hatching like birds and chicksgrin and the cat on your head grin

grin

GloriaSmud Sat 26-Apr-14 08:43:43

Lol at the first 2014-2015 winter forecast <makes notes for reference purposes for when winter arrives>

ophiotaurus Sat 26-Apr-14 08:46:37

Maybe I'll get to use the sledge I bought last October this year then!
Really hope it's not a wet summer. We were very lucky last year.

PollyCazaletWannabe Sat 26-Apr-14 08:51:14

Thank you OYBBK smile so what is the summer looking like this year please?

PaulinesPen Sat 26-Apr-14 08:52:54

Um so is El Nino supposed to = good or bad summer?(generally speaking). I'm confused. If it's bad I won't bother emerging from hibernation.

Paulines, you will see claims that they lead to a hot dry summer, but I think the evidence is weak for that. Much more evidence on how it affects winters.

I actually have no idea how this summer will turn out grin

MsBumble Sat 26-Apr-14 10:25:35

Last summer was lovely. I'm hoping for some warm weather this year so I can get out and about with my newborn and shed my excess baby fat.

BuzzardBird Sat 26-Apr-14 10:27:37

Weather be predicted more than 5 days ahead.

PaulinesPen Sat 26-Apr-14 12:51:30

Thanks Kittengrin Ooh I really hope it's long and hot this year though. And yes last year was so nice - we were lucky. I can put up with a rubbish winter better if I think a nice summer will follow. No more rain though, please no more endless rain. Gawd I thought we were going to have to build an ark at one point last winter. And when it rains constantly in the summer it seems doubly depressing especially in a blimmin tent.

Thanks Kitten.

Is it predicted to be a strong event?

Oh gawd. I am pregnant, due in October. I would like a cool dry summer and a mild dry winter!!

But, but, but… I was under the impression you made the weather shock, Kitten? <lost and bewildered>

Waddaya mean you 'don't know what the weather is going to be like' this summer?! sad

grin

Manky, NOAA say they don't know how strong it will be yet. ENSO neutral for the rest of spring and then looking like it will become positive this summer or autumn.

HesterShaw Mon 28-Apr-14 12:05:15

But, but, but… I was under the impression you made the weather shock, Kitten? <lost and bewildered>

I thought that too <indignant> Have you been misleading us? grin

Anyway, everyone says last summer was great. Actually that's not technically correct. July was great, and August was decent. The rest was the same old same old, and it was freezing until June. Then the long wet winter started at the end of September. However we had good autumn leaves.

I'm uneasy when I remember that good Marches and Aprils have turned into awful summers in the last few years.

However I know nothing.

Hester, you understand me.

And yy to last summer - the 3 weeks that we had nice weather here last July (Scotland) we spent on the Continent sweltering in 35+C heat. We left in rain and returned to rain.
No, I am Not Bitter hmm

BorisJohnsonsHairdresser Mon 28-Apr-14 13:50:54

Cold in winter you say, blow me.

Well as its the opposite of last winter Boris....

For anyone who doesn't 'know' me any seasonal forecast I do is very tongue in cheek. I wouldnt attempt to forecast a month ahead, never mind 3 seasons away. It is however interesting to look at the trends that conditions like El Nino tend to produce and then observe what actually does happen.

We managed to miss much of the nice weather last summer by going to a country that was even colder and wetter than it normally is. A lot of hiking in fog, wind and rain!

BorisJohnsonsHairdresser Mon 28-Apr-14 19:42:28

Thank goodness for Noah's ark the past winter.

The BBC seem to have picked up the possibility of El Nino here...www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27343057

Though they are more worried about the impact on the World Cup, rather thank anything else. confused

Valpollicella Sat 10-May-14 05:57:13

meg, us too! huuuuuuge bloody things!

BuzzardBird Sat 10-May-14 08:45:33

Oh kitten, oh wise one. Dh tells me we are going to have a 'heat wave' next week, could you tell me exactly what time to the nearest minute it will arrive so that I can get all my jobs out of the way in time?

Meglet Sat 10-May-14 08:54:47

valp mine were in my old google street map photo. They were like triffids looming over the fence. Pesky google updated the photos last summer though (very dry!), my sunflower pic is no more sad.

Basically I have to get my legs waxed by about thursday don't I hmm.

Meglet Sat 10-May-14 08:59:05

And I'd better finish and water in my last allotment veg too. If the weather is dry I might be able to mow my jungle lawn.

NCISaddict Tue 13-May-14 08:18:43

www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/summer-2014-forecast/

Is this a reasonable forecast for the summer OYBBK ?

I do take them with a pinch of salt especially as I'm moving somewhere with a big BBQ and a nice garden which will, no doubt, ensure a very wet summer.grin

GloriaSmud Tue 13-May-14 11:51:37

Netweather are saying this for the next few months, with a drier and warmer July.
<cleans BBQ>

NCISaddict Tue 13-May-14 11:53:47

Step away from the BBQ, you'll ruin it all, everyone should buy waterproofs and wellies, it's the only way to ensure sunshine.grin

Sorry Buzzard - missed this! Heatwave is clearly pushing the definition slightly!

BuzzardBird Tue 13-May-14 12:13:25

Damn. Was it because I bought two new pairs of sandals this week? Have I ended summer?

Met office are making it increasingly hard to find their long term forecast probabilities. its now under contingency planning here

To summarise they are saying it looks like an El Nino year later on but it will occur too late to influence this summers weather. For May through July No indication whatsoever as to whether it will be warmer, colder or average temps, ditto precip levels but they dont think it will be extremely wet. In fact the documents basically admit they havent a scooby what it will be like!

It does look pretty pleasant over the next few days smile Pretty much dry and temps pushing to around 20C, esp in the south. Then its a bit pear shaped again Monday so get all your mowing/washing etc done before then!

Hadn't appreciated this fact from the bbc: "The predictions are based on observations from a system of ocean buoys, which can detect warming in the waters and help scientists hone their estimates about the likelihood of an event happening during the year.

But cuts in US and Japanese funding for the monitoring system may be having an impact. In the past two years, nearly half the buoys in the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean array have stopped working.".

Not a great busget cut to make really considering climate scientists are trying to understand how these events occur. its still not very well understood.

GloriaSmud Wed 14-May-14 06:34:46

<puts away BBQ. Buys snow gear instead to make sure of extra nice summer>

It does look nice for the next few days <forecasts a few days at the allotment>

Methinks the metoffice are remembering their "BBQ summer" forecast a few years ago and instead what followed was a "washout summer." So after that one, they don't want to look silly now by doing 'proper' forecasts for months ahead!

I do admire their honesty grin

RubySparks Wed 14-May-14 08:02:35

I'm in central Scotland and we had a niceish sunny day yesterday followed by massive thunderstorm, heavy rain then huge hailstones! How does that happen?

NCISaddict Wed 14-May-14 08:46:21

I start nights tomorrow for the weekend. Why does that always happen when the sun starts to shine?

Good old convection Ruby - the sunshine adds lots of energy to the system and helps the clouds grow upwards quickly. If the atmosphere becomes unstable then boom!

RubySparks Wed 14-May-14 21:09:13

Thank you - hailstones were really big chunks of ice very impressive

What sort of huge Ruby? What did they look like, was there any damage?

RubySparks Fri 23-May-14 23:31:48

They were like small marbles so not really huge I guess... Most damage to my poor plants - I had to run outside in it to get some of them back into the greenhouse! Really hurt when hail hit my arms.

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