BadKitten's Christmas forecast thread.

(571 Posts)
OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 08-Dec-13 10:57:36

A just for fun thread! Remember I’m not a professional and it’s important not to base decisions on what I say in forecasting threads as I may very well get it wrong. At this point in time I am looking at GFS, as other charts come into range I will start discussing those too. I’m also looking at the GFS ensembles (which at present as you would expect have a wide range of solutions, most of which are mild). The forecast will change as we go along considering how far out we are at present.

In general over the next couple of weeks we seem to be kept in mild southerlies or south-westerly’s, with more potential for storms and there isn’t much promise of a cold Christmas. The 24th December has finally made into the range of the GFS. What a chart!! It shows a deep low which would bring severe gales and a mix of heavy snow (for some) and heavy rain (for most) across the UK with the snow risk being greater the further north you are.

It’s a stonker of a chart, but probably not a welcome one!

SpottyChristmasCakes Sun 08-Dec-13 13:44:26

Boo I hate rain!

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 08-Dec-13 13:47:35

It wouldn't be very Christmasy would it? Really hope that chart doesn't come off, there would be a lot of damage -again.

SpottyChristmasCakes Sun 08-Dec-13 13:49:43

I would prefer it to snow at Christmas to be honest. We're in the sticks with steep narrow hills on all exits! Rain is miserable though. Bright and cold for me please smile

Perihelion Sun 08-Dec-13 15:23:17

Nooooooo! Am actually lookng forward to Xmas for once, as have chucked dull relative duty and am gong to a pals house for relaxed fun. This requires travel and crossing the Forth Bridge. Happy to get snowed/stormed in when we get there, but not before! Although on the very unscientific basis of my memory, interesting weather usually starts on Christmas day evening. Have drven home more than a few times, with the snow starting. Also remember Boxing day 1998, where the neighbour's wndows got blown in. Hogmanay is also quite popular for wind in Edinburgh.......

Currently a totally unseasonable 12C.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 08-Dec-13 15:36:31

oh how fickle gfs is! The 06Z model run shows a very benign Christmas eve! Maybe a bit of frost around.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 08-Dec-13 19:33:55

The storm is back again in the latest run but with the centre to the north of Scotland rather than over it bringing in stormy but mild conditions.

Perihelion Sun 08-Dec-13 21:51:39

That's not necessarily cheering me up Kitten, wasn't this week's storm centre just to the North of Scotland too? If you ignore Shetland...

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 08-Dec-13 23:06:31

It's not terribly reassuring, though I've not looked at it in detail. I suspect it will be different tomorrow.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 09-Dec-13 08:35:07

Christmas day is almost in our reach on GFS with the model taking us up to midnight on Christmas Eve.

This time the model shows a nice little high pressure over us - giving a cold dry Christmas eve and some hints of rain or snow moving in on Christmas day.

Will update after lunch to see what happens next!

TwentiethCenturyGirl Mon 09-Dec-13 08:46:26

Oh, fingers crossed for some Christmassy weather. This mild grey cloud is so unfestive. I want cold frosty mornings and blue skies please!

GloriaSmud Mon 09-Dec-13 10:40:49

'Tis not right or festive this weather.
But for those that are missing cold and snow, Lapland is looking snowy (click on a blue camera to see a different place) this morning, with temepratures in some places down to -39C overnight fshock

DameDeepRedBetty Mon 09-Dec-13 10:46:31

Ooooo goody goody goody a BadKitten weather page! <placemarks for future reference>

TweenageAngst Mon 09-Dec-13 10:52:52

How about Marrakesh kitten? We are there at Christmas

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 09-Dec-13 12:15:45

Marrakesh! I'll have to look up where it is on a map first blush

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 09-Dec-13 12:18:03

The gfs I look at doesnt reach that far south. The ECMWF model does - give me a prod in 5 days.

purplepippininapeartree Mon 09-Dec-13 14:08:33

We are in Aberdeenshire for christmas, is it looking like we may get some snow ? I'm in the south east and it's so mild haven't even got the hats and gloves out yet.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 09-Dec-13 14:27:36

It might be better if I answer specific questions next week as GFS is swinging wildly between high pressure in charge and monster storm. In the latest model run monster storm wins!

TweenageAngst Mon 09-Dec-13 18:39:44

OK will do. As long as it avoids the monster storm grin

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 09-Dec-13 18:42:34

Monster storm is a boxing day storm this model run.

Its going to be a long 2 weeks this! fgrin

oricella Mon 09-Dec-13 18:44:30

Really can't do with another storm up here; lots of beautiful old trees come down, leaving the ones standing even more vulnerable. On the plus side, a couple of afternoons out with the chain saw and we're a long way forward on next winter's wood supply!

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 09-Dec-13 18:45:30

I don't need another storm either - I've run out of places to put logs!

oricella Mon 09-Dec-13 18:50:40

grin - I'm sure we could find some space if we had to, but overall I prefer the trees standing

IamInvisible Mon 09-Dec-13 18:53:24

Oh, please don't let it snow!

Perihelion Mon 09-Dec-13 22:36:12

grin, see as I unscientifically noted, interesting weather starts xmas day evening.....fwink

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Tue 10-Dec-13 07:55:13

This model run shows a storm on the 18th, strong winds til Christmas Eve or so and then a storm grazes Scotland and another storm following Boxing Day.

At the moment it looks mild and wild I'm afraid.

BiscuitsandBaileys Tue 10-Dec-13 11:29:25

For the first time ever I'm hoping it doesn't snow this Christmas as we are flying to Lapland on the 22nd! grin

Don't mind getting stuck out there though.....

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Tue 10-Dec-13 13:30:21

Timing of the various gales and storms has moved around on the latest run but nevertheless, at the moment windy and mild seems to be the order of the day.

SpottyChristmasCakes Tue 10-Dec-13 14:42:05

Humph. We're going to London on 18th hmm

johnworf Tue 10-Dec-13 15:26:48

Is any of the snow on the east coast of the US going to make it's way here?

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Tue 10-Dec-13 16:45:00

johnworf - not as snow at present.

knittedslippersx3 Tue 10-Dec-13 16:49:18

I'm in Suffolk and I'll take anything but snow. If you could arrange that for me Kitten, I'd be very grateful!grin

Fluffy40 Tue 10-Dec-13 16:55:31

In Essex. Lots of snow Christmas Eve, with a rapid thaw on Boxing Day please!

I know it won't.

Meglet Tue 10-Dec-13 23:02:40

<Comes back sheepishly after trying, and failing to understand the hi-tech maps on net weather>.

Although on the jetstream map it did look a little crazy over xmas / boxing day. That must be the potential bad weather then confused.

I don't want a storm, my fence is wobbly and I can't afford to get it fixed. A foot of snow would prop it up a bit grin.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Wed 11-Dec-13 08:26:40

Once again the timing of the storms/gales differs on GFS, but nevertheless it still shows a mild and wild Christmas period.

GloriaSmud Wed 11-Dec-13 10:00:31

Meglet ~ grin snow is renowned for its fence propping abilities!

I think, from my very limited understanding of weather models, colder stuff isn't very far away. It's all out west at the moment and being kept there by the great wodge of high pressure that we've got sitting over us at the moment. So 'tis great for the heating bills but a bit 'meh' and not very festive for those that like a bit of the white stuff at this time of year.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Wed 11-Dec-13 11:02:43

That's not really the case Gloria as when the high pressure collapses and moves off into Europe more as its starting to do so over this week we are going to end up with milder much more Atlantic driven weather. Next week looks very unsettled but not cold.

gaggiagirl Wed 11-Dec-13 11:06:06

I want snow! I want snow!

<stamps foot and wails>

I would like some snow but only on or after 28th December. Too much driving to do before then!

SpottyChristmasCakes Wed 11-Dec-13 12:57:42

I can't believe how foggy it still is shock oybbk is it going to clear?

GloriaSmud Wed 11-Dec-13 13:09:29

Ah, I got the wrong sort of weather out west ~ back to the model reading lessons!

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Wed 11-Dec-13 13:31:26

They are having a loooot of snow on the east coast of the US!

I'm just reading up on the Lake Effect Snow warnings that the USA have out now, it's really interesting, but some of the amounts of snow that fall as a result are mind boggling!

GloriaSmud Wed 11-Dec-13 14:19:17

Perhaps they've got our snow ~ they should really think about sharing just a little bit of it!

GloriaSmud Wed 11-Dec-13 14:30:23

Just spotted the metoffice have some weather warnings out for strong winds/gales for Saturday and Sunday, for Scotland/northern England.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Wed 11-Dec-13 14:42:57

I'm not totally surprised they have warnings out tbh, all the main models have the storm going north of Scotland bringing gales, but if it develops a little further south it could be pretty nasty again.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Wed 11-Dec-13 14:43:22

I think they should share their snow too!

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Thu 12-Dec-13 08:10:47

Manic morning!!

Latest GFS outlook for Christmas is wet and windy but some northern hill snow. Air looks more polar maritime in origin this am. (Ie a bit colder)

GloriaSmud Thu 12-Dec-13 09:35:22

Today's offering from the Express and this week it's going to be 'The Christmas from HELL' with the 'biggest winter storm EVER.'
I'm sensing some desperation together with a heavy dose of exaggeration going on. Maybe we need a thread dedicated to 'weather in the media' and then we can laugh hysterically examine critically the forecasting abilities of the Express/Daily Mail.

GloriaSmud Thu 12-Dec-13 09:56:37

'Tis not just the US that has had problems with snow, Cyprus has had extreme cold as well!

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Thu 12-Dec-13 12:38:40

I really like the idea of weather in the media grin even on mn you see a lot of posts saying 'they said it would be catastrophically hot/cold/snowy/wet and its not' and getting the real forecasters (the met office and some decent private companies) muddled with the (struggling to find a polite way to phrase it) more imaginative ones.

However, there is on this model run a very nasty little low running across us on Christmas day. Would bring snow to some northern elevated areas and buckets of rain to the rest with gales across the south and east.

Its still too far to forecast with accuracy but the theme of mild and wild continues.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Thu 12-Dec-13 12:56:52
SpottyChristmasCakes Thu 12-Dec-13 15:48:14

It's suddenly got really foggy again!

gaggiagirl Thu 12-Dec-13 16:00:09

Its so foggy here too and its been dark all day.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Thu 12-Dec-13 18:23:14

The fog issues will fade away tomorrow as the weather becomes more dominated by wet and windy.

SpottyChristmasCakes Thu 12-Dec-13 18:32:03

Think I prefer that to fog!

Do you know what it will be like in London on Wednesday yet?

thanks

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Thu 12-Dec-13 18:34:17

It may well change but at the moment it looks rather windy (perhaps even gales) and very wet by the afternoon. Sorry.

Twit Thu 12-Dec-13 18:41:56

No no no no. I want snow. I want to not have to get up tomorrow please. or Sunday for il's Christmas thing
Make it so please. fgrin

SpottyChristmasCakes Thu 12-Dec-13 19:23:45

It's ok we're not planning an open top bus tour grin at least we can be prepared!!

AngryFeet Thu 12-Dec-13 19:23:46

Bugger we booked tickets to winter wonderland on boxing day. I hope it isn't pissing down or blowing a gale sad

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Thu 12-Dec-13 20:22:19

In forecasting land Christmas is still in fantasy Island time. I'd be astonished if it turned cold for it but we can hope for the storms to bugger off far north.

Open top tour bus! fgrin would be like an open air swimming pool if GFS came off.

getyourshoesonNOW Thu 12-Dec-13 21:03:01

Marking my spot!

PacifistDingDong Thu 12-Dec-13 21:18:42

Oh, I'll be here too - I love your forecasts, Kitten, accurate or not smile.

I'd prefer snow and cold over mild and scary windy - last week's storm had me wibbling a bit. I thought my poor offspring would fly away on the way to school.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Thu 12-Dec-13 21:22:49

I'm glad you don't need accurate fgrin

PacifistDingDong Thu 12-Dec-13 21:24:20

Oh, I love accurate, but no, I don't need it fwink

I love your enthusiasm on the subject tbh...

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Thu 12-Dec-13 22:05:55

fsmile it's nice to be able to share it here, else can you imagine my poor dh having to put up with every update!

WestieMamma Thu 12-Dec-13 22:06:14

I'm in Sweden and our snow has melted and gone already. Normally that doesn't happen until March. Pretty depressing really, especially as it massively reduces our light levels.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Thu 12-Dec-13 22:29:13

That's interesting Westie, I'd noticed how warm Central Europe was compared to usual. Seems very strange for Sweden not to have snow.

mandmsmummy Thu 12-Dec-13 22:56:35

I'd love a white christmas but for the first time in years we are doing all the visiting! Typical! X

Definitely worrying about potential for the " Monster storm is a boxing day storm this model run "

<Marks place, and tries to quell panic>

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Fri 13-Dec-13 07:30:23

It's all change on GFS again grin this morning it shows a north westerly feed bringing rain to southern areas on Christmas Eve but snow over northern hills, then <whispers> quite a cold Christmas Day with the potential for some snow showers on higher ground in the south and maybe a mix of rain and a little snow in the south on Boxing Day.

No big Christmas storm showing. Wonder if it will be back later today.

leesmum Fri 13-Dec-13 07:34:04

That sounds promising fsmile Thanks Kitten x

PaulSmenis Fri 13-Dec-13 08:33:01

I'm hoping for a mild festive season as it saves on heating bills, although I do have a wood burning stove so should complain too much. Cold spells are rough for the elderly and vulnerable and I hate to see old dears slip over in the snow and ice.

Sorry to be a humbugger. blush

Dawndonnaagain Fri 13-Dec-13 08:48:33

I know it's rude, but I'm just marking my place.

digerd Fri 13-Dec-13 10:27:56

SE
+10 degrees already and feels mild out with no cold wind.
NW winds are usually cold?

FunnyFestiveTableRunner Fri 13-Dec-13 10:33:12

Marking place smile

AuntieStella Fri 13-Dec-13 10:40:07

I'm hoping for a gentle sprinkle of snow on Christmas Eve and Christmas morning, followed by crisp winter sunshine and thaw on Boxing Day.

But it sounds like the predictions just aren't showing anything that benign or festive.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Fri 13-Dec-13 10:40:33

I think that cold and quiet is probably better than monster storm! fgrin

LucilleBluth Fri 13-Dec-13 12:02:04

I'm loving this thread. I quite like stormy and mild. After 5 years of living through Canadian winters I wouldn't mind never seeing snow again. smile

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Fri 13-Dec-13 12:03:15

I can't believe how mild it is out there today! 12C. Almost don't need a coat.

Maitri Fri 13-Dec-13 15:51:12

Marking place. grin

DziezkoDisco Fri 13-Dec-13 16:28:35

I want a frosty, crispy day please. With sun and blue skies.

This is how this works isn't it?

digerd Fri 13-Dec-13 16:33:32

The breeze was surprisingly mild for December., but overcast and dull. However, the forecast for SE says the skies will clear during the night making it very cold but by morning probably cloudy and raining confused

BiscuitsAreMyDownfall Fri 13-Dec-13 16:37:20

Just marking place as I'm fascinated by what the weather will do.

Praying for no disruption for anyone.

Thanks OYMLK

marcos Fri 13-Dec-13 17:22:40

My little darling really wants a White Christmas and I think that even if you live in a big city in the South (as we do) you should have at least one when you are little :-)

MadeOfStarDust Fri 13-Dec-13 19:30:07

live in the SW and expect Christmas will be mild and slightly damp with grey overcast skies - as usual......

it varies a little, but on average (from dodgy memory..) - grey/dismal/slight drizzle on a soft breeze...

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 14-Dec-13 07:29:51

Nasty storm is back for the north on Christmas eve with potential blizzards in Scotland to boot. Christmas Day looks less windy but with some cold rain about.

More later, running behind this morning.

PacifistDingDong Sat 14-Dec-13 09:30:29

Oooooh, a White Christmas!! <claps excitedly> smile

noblegiraffe Sat 14-Dec-13 12:30:47

Just saw something about a massive storm next Thursday?

Golddigger Sat 14-Dec-13 12:34:21

Just had a very strange gust of wind.
The wind has been picking up the last couple of days, but just now was a gust out of seemingly nowhere.
Picked up the cats dishes etc and flung them around.
I live quite western Britain.
Just wanted to warn people.
Maybe it was normal for other people? Just not seen it myself before.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 14-Dec-13 13:25:52

Golddigger, sometimes you can get little eddys of wind as a gust moves past a building which can cause a locally strong 'patch' of wind.

Possibly a nasty storm on thursday (or maybe wednesday night). Something I'm keeping my eye on but as you can imagine I'm a bit run ragged trying to fit everything in at the moment. Very busy at home smile

Golddigger Sat 14-Dec-13 13:27:04

ah, that would make sense. It was exactly like that.

Dont overdo things Kitten.

SirChenjin Sat 14-Dec-13 13:29:07

No no no - you keep your horrible predictions of snow 'further north' to yourself. Or change that to 'snow in the SE' please grin

AChristmassyJerseySpud Sat 14-Dec-13 13:29:19

Im starting to panic about this storm. on the 21st (next saturday) we are sailing accross the channel Jersey to Weymouth

Are we in for a nightmare trip or the boat being cancelleD??

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 14-Dec-13 14:04:49

dont worry Golddigger - just having one of those aaaarrrggggghhhhh days!

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 14-Dec-13 14:20:08

Ok quick low down for the following week as GFS currently stands (no doubt it will change lots!). ECMWF has quite a different picture!!

Tomorrow - Stormy in the NW of Scotland and NI and generally galeish across much of Scotland. Wet for most. Pretty blowy across central and southern areas later.

Monday - mild. damp in the south. Calmer winds.

Tuesday - colder than of late, esp in the north where there may be some sunshine smile

wednesday - clouding over and rain moving in. Possibly a deep low moving across Scotland bringing more very strong winds to somewhere northish.

Thursday - deep low may still be an issue. Generally windy/gales and rain.

Friday into Saturday another deep low possible and it doesnt look especially nice. Gales/severe gales for many.

Sunday - calmer (ECMWF has it stormy in the south!)

Monday - calmer til the evening

Christmas Eve - Wet but not too windy (ECMWF is milder and doesnt have the little low over the opt of us)

Christmas Day - <whispers> maybe cold enough for snow over hills. Rain elsewhere

Boxing day - wet for some. (snow possibly over some hills???)

And there we have it. Longer term ginormous uncertainty!

EndoplasmicReticulum Sat 14-Dec-13 15:20:45

Metcheck gives it sleet/snow for Christmas day! (North Yorks, but not hilly enough so we'll probably get the sleet).

I'd really like some snow while we are still on holiday. We have sledges at the ready.

Yankeecandlequeen Sat 14-Dec-13 16:30:21

I'd love some snow for Christmas. I live on a mountainside so I'm crossing all I can!

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 14-Dec-13 16:32:31

Endo Metcheck uses the raw output from GFS (which is kind of reassuring as it tallies roughly with my thoughts on the charts). Needs to be taken with a huge pinch of salt.

JadedAngel Sat 14-Dec-13 16:39:07

It's very stormy all of a sudden on the coast of SE Cornwall. I wondered if there was weather coming because the breakers which are normally 2ft ish on the south coast have been in excess of 6-8 the last couple of days and very loud. And the cats didn't want to go out this morning which is extremely unusual.

I'm sure we weren't forecast high winds like this in this part of the country? Heavy rain yes but it's really very windy indeed. V different from the storm we had in Oct which was like a wall of wind hitting and all moving in the same direction. This is wild, squally and crazy out there. Really difficult to stay upright. And came on v suddenly in the last 30 minutes.

Cindy34 Sat 14-Dec-13 16:47:31

Any forecast for 21/22nd for those of us travelling? Last year it was very wet, driving through the Lake District I remember the rain being so bad that it came into the car through the door seals. Think it must have been combination of wind and rain making for terrible drive. Then once in Scotland there was flooding which blocked roads.

Same again this year? If the storm is coming Christmas Day/Boxing Day will that mean it is not too bad before, or will it be bad all week?

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 14-Dec-13 16:52:18

It's gusting to about 50mph in Cornwall atm, it's all part of the storm system that's hitting NI and Scotland. Once the cold front has gone through it should calm down (about 9ish)

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 14-Dec-13 16:53:36

cindy see post timed 14:20. Will update each day with any important highlights.

JadedAngel Sat 14-Dec-13 16:56:03

Marvellous, just in time for sleep. Good good. It's like standing inside a jet engine in the south facing rooms of our house right now. The sea is really roaring too.

Last Christmas was the same. We had high winds and some very bad flooding. Although I think the same extreme of flooding is unlikely because the ground isn't as saturated as it was this time last year.

AChristmassyJerseySpud Sat 14-Dec-13 17:04:41

Ill start crying now sad we sail mid day on saturday!!

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 14-Dec-13 17:06:14

Don't yet jersey spud! It's ages away and it may end up being much better!

CCTVmum Sat 14-Dec-13 17:57:23

Anyone know what 16th is like? Travelling ip M4 then flying out from Gatwick in evening. We reurn early hours 24th, hope it is ok then not windy landing!!!

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 14-Dec-13 18:25:16

Maybe a bit wet on the 16th but not windy.

OYBBK, I do love your weather threads.
SW - London next Thurs/Fri - will we be in trouble travelling do you think?

Cindy34 Sat 14-Dec-13 19:17:51

Thanks. Deep low does not sound good, will that mean wet and windy?

CCTVmum Sat 14-Dec-13 19:57:02

thanks OYMLK dont mind rain its the wind that frightens me.

Coveredinweetabix Sat 14-Dec-13 20:02:44

As with every year when I am hosting the family Christmas, I could really do with it being cold so I can keep some stuff in a box in the garage rather than have to squeeze it all in the fridge. And good weather on 27th so all the relies can travel home again when they're supposed to and I can put my feet up and scoff my favourite chocolates which will be well hidden from everyone else!

AChristmassyJerseySpud Sat 14-Dec-13 22:41:28

I wouldn't mind but we had a horrendous crossing in April which i felt sick for most of (which most likely wasn't helped by my best mate giving birth at 4 in the morning and i was her birthing partner lol. i had 4 hours sleep before getting on the boat)

This time we have our 2 DD's with us too sad

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 15-Dec-13 12:31:04

Yuk Jerseyspud!

Ok the lowdown today:

Tomorrow: Far south are under a heavy rain warning. [[ http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1387411200&regionName=uk wrnings]] Maybe a couple of inches of rain over 24 hours for some. Perhaps some snow over scottish hills tomorrow night.

Tuesday: Colder but quite a pleasant day for many. Maybe some rain or snow (high ground) for parts of Scotland.

Wednesday: rain moves in from the west through the day. Mild. Gales for most towards the end of the day.

Thursday: Met office have weather warnings out for severe gales for parts of Scotland and NI but there will be strong-gale force winds across the UK.

Friday: Still windy and another deep low pressure may bring further gales.

saturday: still windy, esp across the north.

Sunday: turning a bit colder.

Monday: windy

Christmas eve: Gales and mild

Christmas day: GFS and ECMWF look rather different. ECMWF brings in a nice little low over us bringing in colder air from the north and unsettled. GFS brings in mildish westerlies (esp in the south, colder further north)

Boxing day:Only the GFS model goes out this far of the 3 main models. Very wet and mild, perhaps cold enough for snow in northern elevated areas.

To summarise: Keep an eye on the met office warnings, we are in for a potentially rather stormy spell over the Christmas period.

ChippingInLovesChristmasLights Sun 15-Dec-13 12:48:32

OYBBK - I do love your threads fgrin

You know where I live (CSE) - my only request is warning to get my snow tyres put on and I'm a happy bunny fgrin

'Running behind' at 7.30 on a Saturday morning beggars belief - I think you have FARRRRR too much on!

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 15-Dec-13 13:04:34

It has been a little crazy fgrin

You aren't going to need your winter tyres for the forecastable future I'm afraid. Wellies more probably.

PacifistDingDong Sun 15-Dec-13 15:34:42

Winter tyres are recommended for temperatures below +8C and are v good in the wet grin guess who's got her winter tyres on?
fsmile

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 15-Dec-13 16:00:48

That is true.
Its 12C here grin but we have had some colder weather.

BlackeyedShepherdswatchsheep Mon 16-Dec-13 00:24:49

loving the oo theres a stom, oh it's gone, ahh, its back theme going on here. tis like a weather soap opera. fsmile

thanks.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 16-Dec-13 07:53:30

fgrin

DrankSangriaInThePark Mon 16-Dec-13 08:01:43

Hello MerryLittleKitten! It's Bucharest from deepest Italy, checking in to see if I will be able to land at Stansted on Thursday as usual....looks like windy but no major issues.

I almost miss those couple of Christmasses when I sat obsessively refreshing flight pages and your threads to see if the snow would let me go home! fgrin

DrankSangriaInThePark Mon 16-Dec-13 08:02:18

(our schools were all closed two weeks ago because of an absolute tempest of a storm)

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 16-Dec-13 08:18:08

Ok, looking mainly at GFS, will try to get time to look at the other models later (life will be much less bonkers after today)

Tomorrow: When the rain clears from the SE (might not happen during the day for the far SE) it should be a reasonable day for most. Bit cooler than of late.

Wednesday: A deep area of low pressure moves in from the west through the day bringing gales/strong winds for all with heavy rain. By late wednesday night into thursday there is the potential for severe gales/storm force winds through Scotland and NI . Possibly very nasty looking and more widespread than this weekends pair of storms but once again it depends on the exact path the storm takes.

Thursday: Still very stormy in Scotland, later on perhaps some snow showers to lower levels there. A pleasant but colder day for many in England until some showers and cloud moves in later.

Friday: actually a reasonably pleasant day for many, especially in the east apart from the wind. Feeling colder than of late. Scotland some rain. Later the wind builds again with strong winds/gales for all by the end of the day.

Saturday: windy, damp and mild.

Sunday: calmer, cooler, damp

Monday: similar to Sunday

Christmas eve: nasty storm is back again. Gales/severe gales. silly thing.

Christmas day: horrible disgusting, wet cold and very very windy.

Boxing day: windy, but cold enough for the rain to be snow on higher ground even through england.

Back later smile

DameDeepRedBetty Mon 16-Dec-13 08:43:01

Right that's it, I am ABSOLUTELY NOT going to drive ten miles, over big hills and through a patch of thick woodland with notorious form for getting blocked by fallen trees, drink half a glass of low alcohol 'champagne' while MIL does her once a year granny act for half an hour, then traipse back home again, all at exactly the same time as I ought to be doing very important things to our own roast beef lunch. She's going to have to accept that it is actually possible to wish her granddaughters happy Christmas and exchange presents at another time than 'after Church but before lunch on Christmas Day'.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 16-Dec-13 09:05:40

hang fire, it may well change again!

I am currently standing in bike shed at a train station sheltering from the rain. im soaked and cold. bah humbug! give me snow any day.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 16-Dec-13 09:07:12

bucharest its so very different isnt it. it feels like back to the winters of the 00's

SpottyChristmasCakes Mon 16-Dec-13 09:27:30

Quite flooded round here now hmm

Oybbk my met office app is showing dry for London on Wednesday?

BiscuitsAreMyDownfall Mon 16-Dec-13 09:31:24

Thanks for the updates OYMLK

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 16-Dec-13 09:35:00

spotty rain will move in later on Wednesday into your area.

my next train is now delayed. grrrrr. full on shivering due to soggy jeans. sad

singaporeswing Mon 16-Dec-13 09:36:44

Hoping things aren't too gusty around Manchester - my flight is due to arrive at 7am on Thursday!

digerd Mon 16-Dec-13 10:11:12

Soggy jeans are the worst as take ages to dry. Just got back from a rainy dog walk and still in my polyester fleece trousers
Hope it's not raining on Wednesday morning in SE.

Really mild last night at 12 degrees minimum, but the down side is today is wet and dismal.

SpottyChristmasCakes Mon 16-Dec-13 10:12:24

It is really mild isn't it? It's quite odd but for once I'm not dreading the heating bill grin

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 16-Dec-13 13:39:38

Very different looking feature on Christmas day now with a little rapidly developing low which would bring gales to the south.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 16-Dec-13 13:42:08

Above comment was with regards to GFS (06z). ECMWF has a really horrible looking storm for Christmas day. Would bring severe gales/storm force winds across much of England.

Kitten - anything looking likely to disrupt trains running from London to Scotland on Saturday? My DPs got caught up a couple of weeks ago when everything was cancelled, and we're travelling north this weekend [worried].

Also flights to Inverness at the weekend, and back south on Boxing Day? Not worried about getting to the airport to collect/drop off, just the actual flights themselves being disrupted by storms/gales. Any thoughts?

Perihelion Mon 16-Dec-13 15:58:43

Finally got colder in Scotland, 5C.

digerd Mon 16-Dec-13 16:28:40

Gales in the south?shock. Not again and on Xmas day too! sad
Had 13 degrees today but tomorrow will be 8 and dry/sunny intervals so still inconsistent weather patterns.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 16-Dec-13 22:04:57

Saturday does have the potential to be a bit dodgy in Scotland I'm afraid.

sad but thanks Kitten

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Tue 17-Dec-13 08:38:50

A new day, a new forecast.

met office warnings for wednesday, thursday

Wednesday: A deep area of low pressure moves in from the west through the day bringing gales/strong winds for all with heavy rain across the UK by evening. Although the met office have warnings for just Scotland and NI even across the south the wind could be gusting to 60mph. By late wednesday night into thursday there is the potential for severe gales/storm force winds through Scotland and NI .

Thursday: Still very windy in Scotland, later on perhaps some snow showers to lower levels there. A pleasant but colder day for many in England until some showers and cloud moves in later.

Friday: actually a reasonably pleasant day for many, especially in the east apart from the wind. By the afternoon though rain spreads from the west Feeling colder than of late. Later the wind builds again with strong winds/gales for all by the end of the day.

Saturday: Still very windy, wet and mild.

Sunday: calmer, cooler, damp. Maybe some snow showers in parts of Scotland

Monday: GFS now creates another stormy low, with the potential for severe gales.

Christmas eve: GFS brings in a developing low in the south which has the potential to be an issue. ECMWF shows a larger deep low moving moving across Scotland Christmas eve night. Possibly some snow for some in Scotland

Christmas day: ECMWF shows the deep low bringing severe gales to the north, GFS looks calmer. Again possibility of the precip being snow for some northern areas,

Boxing day: Both models show different scenarios, either very windy or stormy.

And so the wild and windy theme continues beyond although there is a trend for it to be a bit colder during Christmas and beyond bringing in the potential for some snow for those 'up north' esp over higher ground.

GloriaSmud Tue 17-Dec-13 11:25:58

It's like these storms are on some sort of conveyor belt, all coming from the West/South West. I think I read on netweather that some of it's down to the very strong jetstream and it being right over us at the moment.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Tue 17-Dec-13 19:27:36

Very quiet thread compared to snowy years!!

It is down to the jet stream roaring along at the moment. Such a contrast.

AChristmassyJerseySpud Tue 17-Dec-13 19:38:56

condor are cancelling ferries

Everyone keep fingers crossed please that we can get there sad

FunnyFestiveTableRunner Tue 17-Dec-13 21:00:15

Much colder here the last few days but also very windy. Gales after gales and another lot howling outside tonight.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Tue 17-Dec-13 21:15:32

sad Jerseyspud.

I'm afraid there are a lot of weather warnings for the next few days here including for snow for western Scotland, rain, severe gales.

All of the west is affected by warnings at some point, the east escapes.

AChristmassyJerseySpud Tue 17-Dec-13 21:25:16

I'm phoning tomorrow and going to try and get booked in on the over night ferry as thats more likely to go than the fast ferries.

My girls will be heart broken if we have to lose part of our holiday because we can't get there

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Tue 17-Dec-13 21:42:36

I think that's a really sensible idea. Good luck.

Perihelion Tue 17-Dec-13 22:50:15

Wind getting up again, although am not in a weather warning area at all for the next few days.....

digerd Wed 18-Dec-13 07:07:04

SE
Was +4 minimum last night and still is plus 90% relative humidity.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Wed 18-Dec-13 08:12:04

warnings thread for my discussion of imminent weather tonight and tomorrow.

As well as the gales today/tonight the day will become very wet for all with heavy rain spreading across the UK by evening.

Tomorrow: Perhaps some heavy snow in parts of Scotland, even to lower levels. North central Scotland seems to be most at risk. Maybe some snow in hilly areas of Wales too. AND perhaps a little surprise wet snow in central and southern areas, esp around the Bristol area and the Chilterns. Elsewhere, some rain in the west, showers elsewhere, perhaps rather pleasant in the east. Quite blowy and colder than of late.

Friday: Another day, another deep low moving in. strong winds-gales everywhere but especially on western coasts. Rain across most areas by night, but earlier in the day perhaps some snow across Scottish high ground.

Saturday:lots of wet, esp in the south (drier for a while northern England) and gales along the south coast. generally windy.

Sunday: windy, esp in Scotland. Some showers about.

Monday: GFS and eCMWF develop another nasty storm bring gales across the UK but severe across Scotland.UKMO isnt so developmental.

Christmas eve: Hard to pick out the detail in ECMWF as it jumps in 24 hour increments. GFS sad an absolute shocker of a chart, esp for Scotland (again) really really nasty and it is very slow to clear.

Christmas day: The Scottish storm is very slow to clear and would erm perhaps bring blizzards to northern Scotland. sorry. colder elsewhere too

Boxing day: If the southerners have been feeling left out well GFS now introduces a storm for you bringing severe gales across the south. Very wet, snow over hilly areas in northern England, Wales and Scotland.

27th: A little calmer (just windy) and a smidgen warmer.

Next storm after that isnt modelled until 1st Jan.

HesterShaw Wed 18-Dec-13 11:38:38

Christmas Day weather forecast
for anyone heading down to Cornwall for festive fun

shockshockshock

FunnyFestiveTableRunner Wed 18-Dec-13 12:18:46

Hester that's a good website, interesting to see it won't be anything out of the ordinary here - so far anyway!

HesterShaw Wed 18-Dec-13 12:24:53

Funny it's generally pretty good, though a week out is stretching it a bit. They tend to overestimate wind speed and underestimate precipitation and temperature! Three days is usually fairly accurate.

However judging on what OYBBK has said as well, it does look as though the Christmas period is going to see some bastard weather.

Not really looking forward to driving six hours on Christmas Eve.

JadedAngel Wed 18-Dec-13 13:00:30

Oh joy hester, it's pretty wild out there today isn't it? I'm looking out at the sea and not looking forward to the walk to school to pick DD up at all!!

HesterShaw Wed 18-Dec-13 13:08:12

At least the heating doesn't have to be on Jaded!

JadedAngel Wed 18-Dec-13 13:10:10

Yes that's a bonus. Am being stingy with the oil this year so very glad when it's still in double figures!

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Wed 18-Dec-13 13:22:39

Hester - I believe that is taken from the raw output from GFS. Could be wrong though.

HesterShaw Wed 18-Dec-13 13:35:36

GFS - the daddy of computer modelling :D

HesterShaw Wed 18-Dec-13 13:37:30

That was supposed to be a grin

Like you often say, there's no point really looking at beyond about three days out. I don't know why I do really! Unless you're in the middle of a really big, fat static anticyclone, it will invariably change.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Wed 18-Dec-13 14:50:59

absolutely it will though its interesting when the same storm does pop up over and over on models a week or so in advance.

GFS is freely available hence its ubiquity.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Wed 18-Dec-13 19:28:50

The latest gfs is a little kinder over the Christmas period - very windy rather than blow everything away windy. ECMWF has a storm very similar to today's and then another on Boxing day, so we arent really getting any closer to any detail.

PacificDingbat Wed 18-Dec-13 21:32:05

Nonononono, I want snow bright cold weather please!

Horizontal rain is just the pits and difficult to protect against... fangry

NK5BM3 Wed 18-Dec-13 21:52:34

V windy and wet and cold ATM where we are - east kent. Have been busy at work recently so haven't even checked met office app or read anything beyond news flashes.

Is it going to be like this all Christmas?? We are travelling up north!

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Thu 19-Dec-13 07:38:14

Morning, just going to check the models.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Thu 19-Dec-13 07:40:13

Don't be too surprised if you see some snow today. Some areas of Scotland may see lots. Welsh hills, Chilterns, Pennines may all see some later and perhaps to lower levels briefly.

leesmum Thu 19-Dec-13 07:54:11

Thanks Kitten fsmile

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Thu 19-Dec-13 07:55:56

Tomorrow: Some rain or snow for Scotland, nicer elsewhere to start. By night time windy or perhaps stormy across the UK.

Saturday: Once again very windy, especially Scotland and the south coast. Heavy rain in the south.

Sunday: Some showers about which could fall as snow in central Scotland. Remaining windy.

Monday: Becoming very windy, especially along the south coast - gusting to 60mph again. Heavy rain spreading west.

Christmas eve: Probably wet and very windy again. gFS diverges from UKMO to show the winds calming down whereas UKMO shows gusts to 70mph along the south coast and also stormy in the north of Scotland.

Christmas Day: ECMWF shows very windy in north of Scotland, calmer elsewhere. GFS goes for a less deep solution and hence not so stormy but colder with temps around or below zero for much of the north and 4-6C across the south.

Boxing day: a cold day away from the south coasts with perhaps some snow showers smile calmer as this model run takes the pesky nasty low further south into France.

27th: GFS shows a cold day (but with warm lurking off the SW) and perhsps some snow showers where precip meets the colder air in central southern Britain/southern midlands (take that with a massive pinch of salt!!!)

28th on: GFS looks less stormy and cold. Potential for more seasonal weather perhaps?

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Thu 19-Dec-13 10:56:26

06Z GFS brings the storm back to Scotland (and wild everywhere) on Christmas eve and it also beings the risk of some heavy snow not just in Scotland, but perhaps elsewhere too. Interesting run this one.

It also brings the nasty storm back over us Boxing Day and into the 27th - really wild again with the focus being more on England this time.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Thu 19-Dec-13 11:03:00

life is a little less busy now so happy to try and help with a few queries smile (as long as you dont rely on the answer actually being correct fgrin

nannynick Thu 19-Dec-13 11:20:18

Sat night (21 Dec), Glasgow area. No snow please. What are the chances of nice weathe

ChippingInLovesChristmasLights Thu 19-Dec-13 11:21:06

fgrin

Do you want to take a punt at what the weather will be like in London tomorrow?

I'm thinking about getting the train in to 'Ooh and Ahh' at the lights, the tree, the shop windows, mooch around the markets, drink mulled wine and generally pretend I still live in London <sob & sigh> & I don't much fancy it in the peeing rain - funnily enough fgrin

Oh and of course - when I need to get the winter tyres put on fgrin

I hope it's not all too windy & wet for Santa & the boys to deliver all the pressies!!

ChippingInLovesChristmasLights Thu 19-Dec-13 11:22:14

Nannynick - who gave you a pass to cross the border? fgrin

allthegoodnameshavegone Thu 19-Dec-13 11:25:52

Meant to be getting a ferry to Belfast on Boxing Day. Is it going to be hideously rough?!! Also driving down from Glasgow to Stranraer to get the ferry, have rather unpleasant memories of the drive a few yrs ago in the ice and snow...

nannynick Thu 19-Dec-13 11:26:31

I will have my passport grin I like Scotland but have yet to experience lots of snow there, last Christmas was wet.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Thu 19-Dec-13 11:30:39

nannynick - at present I'd say windy and showery/wet depending on which model you look at. Not too stormy at present but there is a low pressure to the north modelled so if that were to track further south it could be an issue.

Chipping, its possible (just) that you may need the winter tyres after christmas - a bit of a hint of change in the weather this morning. As for tomorrow is a good day to go for it smile some rain towards the evening perhaps but it starts off looking lovely and sunny. Wind not too bad during the day, picking up by about 9pm as the rain comes in.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Thu 19-Dec-13 11:33:05

It could be allthegood. at the moment the storm isnt forecast until the evening/night of boxing day, but seas get rough ahead dont they and of course we dont know the real timing of the storm yet - if indeed it happens.

HesterShaw Thu 19-Dec-13 11:34:47

My best ever Christmas was near Aviemore in 1995 <nostalgic>. We rented a little farmhouse. There was a bit of snow on the long drive up, but nothing too bad. After we arrived, the temperature fell and fell. I've never known cold like it - the very air was glittering. We cross country skied, skated on frozen Loch Garten, and drank mulled wine....even the Spey was frozen solid. It was like being in Lapland. Or an Arthur Ransome novel grin

Ah those were the days. Proper weather etc.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Thu 19-Dec-13 11:35:38

You had diamond dust by the sound of it smile

HesterShaw Thu 19-Dec-13 11:44:38

Is that what they call it? I guessed it was a meteorological Thing. Frozen water vapour or something?

Incidentally, when I was little, the term "freezing fog" used to confuse and alarm me. I thought it would mean the fog freezing solid in the sky and falling down in big blocks and chunks. Aren't kids weird?

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Thu 19-Dec-13 11:59:05

It is - its very tiny ice crystals and it needs to be very cold and dry for them to happen.

I used to get a bit worried about ground level thunderstorms happening in fog!

AutumnStarOfWonder Thu 19-Dec-13 12:02:16

Hester that sounds beautiful.

I went to Moscow briefly this year and was amazed by the snowflakes. Not wet like we have here. Tiny and dry and proper fully formed little stars and patterns. It was lovely.

Kitten are you self-taught in weather forecasting?

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Thu 19-Dec-13 12:03:30

I am Autumn grin been to a few lectures and conferences and done an OU course. The rest is book and internet learning. Sometimes it really shows fgrin

PacificDingbat Thu 19-Dec-13 12:05:14

So far there has been only hail/rain here (outside Glasgow) today, not much in the way of wind.

Diamond dust sounds magical.

Christmas tends to be a grey and wet affair here... fhmm - you have to make your own festive cheer, nannynick fgrin

HesterShaw Thu 19-Dec-13 12:06:09

Nonsense! You're an oracle.

I used to want to be a meteorologist when I was 14. Then I was told I'd need physics and maths A levels. Ah well....

PacificDingbat Thu 19-Dec-13 12:06:10

Oh, and we had a great rollicking thunderstorm around midnight a few days ago - v strange.
I am used to continental summer thunderstorms at the end of a hot day, not this kind of nonsense fwink

PacificDingbat Thu 19-Dec-13 12:07:37

Kitten, 'self-taught-, pay!
You have a direct line to St Peter (or whoever makes the weather), don't you?
I need to believe....

AutumnStarOfWonder Thu 19-Dec-13 12:37:11

That's brilliant Kitten. You're so knowledgeable about it all!

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Thu 19-Dec-13 12:37:43

Oh absolutely Pacific - in fact I control the weather donchyaknow. What would you like tomorrow?

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Thu 19-Dec-13 12:38:38

I think the meteorologists I know must absolutely roll their eyes if they come across my threads!

nannynick Thu 19-Dec-13 12:38:57

Thanks. Sounds similar to last year. Had better pack my wellies.

Xmas2013SantaC5542 Thu 19-Dec-13 12:40:25

I knew it!!

I am not fussy re weather - Christmas Day with snow or bright and cold would be nice.
Now I know about Diamond Dust I want some of that too fgrin

Xmas2013SantaC5542 Thu 19-Dec-13 12:40:42

Oooops, outed <hides>

ChippingInLovesChristmasLights Thu 19-Dec-13 12:41:53

Oh bugger - I just wrote a long reply and it ate it. Grrr.

Essentially -

Thank you flowers I'll go into London tomorrow and enjoy the day, I'll think of you while glugging sipping my Mulled Wine fgrin

Re the winter tyres, part of me thinks 'FFS just get the bloody things put on!' but the other part of me thinks 'They are so expensive and I probably wont have this car long enough to justify buying another set of winter tyres for it, so I'd prefer not to have them on unless absolutely necessary'. GAH.

Perhaps I need a donkey fgrin

Little Donkey, carry Mary, safely on her way...

Perihelion Thu 19-Dec-13 13:09:42

Snow on the Ochils today and sunny at the moment in Edinburgh.

GloriaSmud Thu 19-Dec-13 13:33:05

Lots of snow on the Cairngorm webcam and Braemar is looking pretty at the moment.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Thu 19-Dec-13 14:33:27

At least there is a bit of winter about in the UK smile

FunnyFestiveTableRunner Thu 19-Dec-13 15:31:35

Snowing here! Also snowed overnight. None lying where we are thankfully but has drifted in places.

SpottyChristmasCakes Thu 19-Dec-13 15:51:16

Raining here hmm

FunnyFestiveTableRunner Thu 19-Dec-13 15:55:14

Bloody hell, heavy snow here now! Lying even on the wet ground. Gigantic big flakes. Hope DH can get away earlyish and collect DC confused

AutumnStarOfWonder Thu 19-Dec-13 16:23:51

Whereabouts are you Festive? I'm jealous!

teta Thu 19-Dec-13 16:33:05

Massive flakes in Shropshire as well.Seems to be sticking at the moment.

digerd Thu 19-Dec-13 17:25:22

We have +5 degrees out atm so no snow. SE

BiscuitsAreMyDownfall Thu 19-Dec-13 17:45:27

Snow in Shropshire? So is it coming down to England then?

How are we looking for North Yorkshire? Been very very cold today. Has rained a bit, but no snow (thankfully)

NakedTigarCub Thu 19-Dec-13 17:51:30

No snow in South yorks but cold and raining.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Fri 20-Dec-13 07:48:32

morning all, another day, another forecast coming right up.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Fri 20-Dec-13 07:49:46

met office warnings
Might change my name to OhYousoggySoggyBritain if this carries on.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Fri 20-Dec-13 08:03:50

Today: A lot of pleasant weather, esp in the east until rain and high winds move in this evening. Could be quite squally in Scotland with some hail and thunder mixed in.

Sat: Wet in north western parts of Scotland and the SE. A very windy day with gales along southern and western coasts and also NW Scotland.

Sun: cold in northern Britain and quite cold in the midlands too. Very windy everywhere. Gales in the usual places.

Monday: Another storm. Poor NW scotland, poor south and west coast. In general very windy.

Christmas eve: At the moment gusting 70mph+ along the south coast, esp the SE during the morning also severe gales in Scotland later.

Christmas day. Potential storm in northern scotland. oh dear. Also with temps dropping snow is possible for northern areas, but just perhaps for higher ground of southern areas too.

Boxing day: Cold and calm smile

27th - another storm moves in. Nasty on ECMWF, not quite so bad on GFS.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Fri 20-Dec-13 13:46:22

Christmas Eve still has a very nasty storm for Scotland on the latest GFS.
27th still has a nasty storm for the south.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Fri 20-Dec-13 15:21:54

Found out on the weather media thread that Meridian are saying that the Met office are saying it may be a white Christmas

Interesting how that tallies up quite well with my mornings thoughts and nobody seemed excited!

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Fri 20-Dec-13 15:28:05

Why arent you excited???? This is exciting news - if only for a short while til the next model run.

HesterShaw Fri 20-Dec-13 15:30:58

I'm excited <loyal>

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Fri 20-Dec-13 15:31:55

Thank you Hester fsmile

HesterShaw Fri 20-Dec-13 15:32:38

Where is Meridian, though?

SpottyChristmasCakes Fri 20-Dec-13 15:43:47

I'm not excited. We won't get snow here just rain and hales hmm

Tonight is going to be wet and windy and I've had my hair done got my works Christmas do humph.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Fri 20-Dec-13 15:45:52

southern England Hester.

I know spotty, but its nice to have a dream.

SpottyChristmasCakes Fri 20-Dec-13 15:52:08

That should have said gales probably grin
One year I would quite like to go somewhere in the snow for Christmas and stay in a log cabin with a hot tub, no bears though!

seriously? seriously? where did that come from???shock grin

BiscuitsAreMyDownfall Fri 20-Dec-13 15:58:41

So not in the north then. Phew. <wipes brow in relief>

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Fri 20-Dec-13 16:01:18

oh no - the north is a possibility too!

The air being drawn in by the low pressure modelled comes from more polar sources, so instead of being stormy and mild it looks stormy and cold/er.

BiscuitsAreMyDownfall Fri 20-Dec-13 16:07:48

oh no - the north is a possibility too!

As long as it doesn't disrupt anything then its fine.

LadyBeagleEyes Fri 20-Dec-13 16:13:32

I live in NW Scotland and am used to winter gales but this year we seem to be having them most days.
I'ts blowing a hoolie at the moment.
Please tell me when it's going to stop.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Fri 20-Dec-13 16:25:10

There are some hints of it being less silly wind wise in the New Year LadyB.

nannynick Fri 20-Dec-13 16:52:56

White Christmas! White Christmas!
Great as I plan not to drive anywhere between Christmas and New Year.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Fri 20-Dec-13 17:20:10

ironically, for once we are driving!

for the first time ever we're not going anywhere, let it snow, let it snow, let it snowgrin

EndoplasmicReticulum Fri 20-Dec-13 17:50:42

I'm excited. I like snow. Will believe it when I see it though.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Fri 20-Dec-13 18:01:59

potential is still there I think on the 12Z GFS smile however it also shows a really really deep storm on Christmas eve and also a nasty one on the 27th again, so actually we probably shouldnt be wishing for it to come off.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Fri 20-Dec-13 18:08:03

OYMLK thanks for the fab thread. We are supposed to be going ice skating at an open air rink tomorrow mid afternoon in Hertfordshire. I really don't want to skate for a number of reasons.... will it be rained off?

I think the last thing anyone needs is another storm. I particularly don't like the idea as our village looses power easily and we have an electric oven. dp had suggested the option of bbq turkey!

GobbySadcase Fri 20-Dec-13 18:17:08

Everything crossed for snow!

HesterShaw Fri 20-Dec-13 18:18:14

Cheesed with daily gales! Monday looks like a belter.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Fri 20-Dec-13 18:19:17

It's going to be very wet in the morning and into the early afternoon qUeen.

GloriaSmud Fri 20-Dec-13 18:31:10

Oooo a chance of snow on Christmas Day <does embarrassing snow dance> Just a little bit would be nice but not enough to disrupt people's plans.

inamerrymuckingfuddle Fri 20-Dec-13 18:33:51

Hmm, travelling north to south on 24th and back again on 27th...

MooseyMoo Fri 20-Dec-13 18:46:27

ooh, possible chance of white Christmas! Tries to contain excitement. I have always wanted a white Christmas. Even a hard frost would be great.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Fri 20-Dec-13 19:17:20

Oh dear fuddle!

digerd Fri 20-Dec-13 19:35:30

Just noticed it has got milder, after a sunny chilly day max 7. Now has risen to 9 and feels very mildhmm

thank you!

Perihelion Fri 20-Dec-13 22:00:33

There's an overuse of the word urged, in that Met Office press release. Wet and windy in Edinburgh and back to 10C.
Am as ever, excited at the prospect of snow, but am currently imagining a sideyways blizzard, rather than a sparkling winter wonderland fgrin

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 21-Dec-13 07:09:18

morning all. has to be a bit quick this am.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 21-Dec-13 07:10:55
OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 21-Dec-13 07:25:45

today: heavy rain across the south, and across northern scotland. Rain moving in everywhere by the end of the day with strong winds - gale force along the south coast.

Sunday: remaining very windy and some showers about, esp in the far south and Scotland. In scotland some may be snow.

Monday: horrible day. Note the met office warnings. GFS takes the low to a very deep 930hPa. Gusting to 70mph + in the south (esp south east) and also northern Scotland and gales elewhere. Continues into Christmas eve.

Christmas eve - starting off awful but slowly easing through the day.

Christmas day - mostly dry and cold, but maybe some snow showers. The south is I think too warm to snow but elsewhere showers, esp over higher gound might be snow.

Boxing day: winds easing, cold away from the south coast and not too bad a day.

27th: still keeping an eye on this one as at present it would be the most severe storm so far in terms of coverage v windspeed (though I have no idea about coastal flooding)

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 21-Dec-13 11:17:29

torro have issued a tornado watch for today. also hail, c-g lightning.

PacificDingbat Sat 21-Dec-13 11:18:55

Tornados? In the UK??
I did not know that was possible fshock

BiscuitsAreMyDownfall Sat 21-Dec-13 11:19:56

Thanks Kitten

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 21-Dec-13 11:23:29

Pacific - we get on average 33 a year smile

HesterShaw Sat 21-Dec-13 11:23:47

We have quite a few, Dingbat. I used to watch them coming up the Bristol Channel when I was little, though they'd usually dissipate before getting to land. Sometimes they can be quite destructive (usually in Birmingham for some reason)

PacificDingbat Sat 21-Dec-13 11:26:33

Well, I never - thanks for educating me.
Do I have to be worried in Scotland?

We've just discovered that this morning's horizontal rain has entered my bedroom through the window frame... bastard!!

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 21-Dec-13 11:32:33

To summarise the two main events I'm watching:

Storm 1 - Monday/Christmas Eve.
Monday is worst for the south, esp the SE - gusts to 70mph+ Then that night into Christmas Eve the main risk transfers to scotland/NI/north of England. The low is forecast to be at 930hPa - which is very deep. Christmas eve could see winds of 90mph in NI and parts of Scotland. Can I urge you to please keep an eye on the met office warnings and be prepared for powercuts and horrid disruption. Build the storm into your plans.

Storm 2 - Friday27th/Saturday 28th.
Clearly this storm is sometime off and hopefully the models will back down but again you should be aware of it as GFS is showing it very consistently - unusual for the time frame. GFS shows it as a 940hPa storm and takes it right over the country - at this point in time it is impossible to say where the worst of it will be but at present I'm hazarding a guess at the west country followed by the east midlands. That will change.

Interestingly although the UKMO also develops the storm, ECMWF really doesnt seem that impressed with it this model run, though it was picking up on it very much so in previous runs. It may be the first to pick up a down grade, or it may be a dodgy run. Time will tell.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 21-Dec-13 11:33:38

Pacific, you dont seem to get very many up there and not this time smile But you have enough to contend with I think.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 21-Dec-13 11:53:49

The potential for some surprise snowfall is still there on Christmas day. Though I guess its not so much of a surprise if you read the weather treads fgrin

nannynick Sat 21-Dec-13 13:22:23

Very heavy rain a couple of hours ago in Warwickshire. Dry now in Cheshire.
Not looking forward to driving through lake district this afternoon as I doubt it will remain dry.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 21-Dec-13 14:21:43

you are right nannynick, rain will be moving in again.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 21-Dec-13 15:52:14

Forecast remains as before with two potentially damaging storms coming up. No change in the 12z GFS for though on monday there is now a tighter gradient showing in NW England. met office warnings now covering almost all of Britain, warning of gusts to 90mph in some places but more widespread gusts of 70mph across the country. As I said earlier, please please do build the storm into your plans when considering travel. I'm off out in a bit but will be able to answer specific questions when i get back.

PaschasDanglyReindeerBaubles Sat 21-Dec-13 15:56:49

Goodness, Kitten. Its pretty disgusting here in south Kent today. Is it going to be worse monday and tuesday?

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 21-Dec-13 16:01:45

Yes Pascha, much windier esp on Monday for your area. I think the met office will go to. Amber tomorrow when they are more certain about which areas will be hit hardest.

We still have the risk of severe thunderstorms today too!

SpottyChristmasCakes Sat 21-Dec-13 16:06:18

Oybbk if someone was travelling from bath to w Sussex for Christmas which day would be better Monday or Tuesday?!

I have to work both days finish at 6:30 Monday evening and start 6:45 Tuesday morning hmm

HesterShaw Sat 21-Dec-13 16:10:04

I'm concerned.My mother is refusing to let any storm get the better of her and is not even considering the possibility of staying another night at her sister's before driving back to Wales, instead of sticking to her plans to driving on the 27th. As the Severn Bridge is NEVER shut (only for ice) there is no need to be concerned.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 21-Dec-13 16:10:21

As things stand Tuesday spotty and the later the better.

SpottyChristmasCakes Sat 21-Dec-13 16:12:27

Thanks smile

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 21-Dec-13 16:12:34

Hester, does your mum do Internet? good link for her!

HesterShaw Sat 21-Dec-13 16:14:30

She thinks the Internet is for Modern (read "weak") people.

I'll tell her anyway.

HesterShaw Sat 21-Dec-13 16:15:13

That's the old Severn Bridge, Kitten!

PaschasDanglyReindeerBaubles Sat 21-Dec-13 16:27:03

Thanks Kitten. I think fconfused.

TeenageWaistband Sat 21-Dec-13 16:35:20

Hi Kitten,

Many thanks for this - I logged on just to find a weather thread as it is VERY windy outside (E Kent)

It's been raining all day, without really stopping at all. Some strong gusts.

Can't believe Monday will be worse! Yikes...last week the finial thing fell off our (3 storeys up) roof ridge, it's about 9" long and has a core of slag iron with brick around it.

Thankfully it only fell onto the playhouse then smashed on the patio - but if little one had been out there it could easily have killed him instantly.

It wasn't even windy when it fell off but I'm guessing that the storm before that dislodged it. Then it only took a daft seagull to send it down!

Wondering what else is left up there to fall...

nannynick Sat 21-Dec-13 16:40:24

Lotsof rain currently near Carlisle. Makes for fun driving. No strong wind yet or snow so there is a plus side to all the rain.

ChippingInLovesChristmasLights Sat 21-Dec-13 17:10:30

Thanks for keeping us all updated fsmile I might take my snowboots & salopets with me at Christmas, just in case there's a chance of a snowball fight! << more like a slush slug out I should think!

digerd Sat 21-Dec-13 17:18:32

S. Herts.

Had some hefty gusts here too and thought my rose arch would be hurled sideways. It was definitely rocking at times.

MooseBeTimeForSnow Sat 21-Dec-13 17:27:13

Hello OYMLK

It's -38 here today. -47 with the wind chill!!

PacificDingbat Sat 21-Dec-13 19:22:19

More hail here (SW of Glasgow) just now.

Moose, -38 shock?? I jolly well hope you are where your name suggests

digerd Sat 21-Dec-13 20:22:41

+11 in S.Herts. Has drizzled/rained all day and been blustery/gusty.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 21-Dec-13 20:48:08

Im not really very up on my severn bridges grin

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 21-Dec-13 20:51:57

unfortunately the 12Z ECMWF echos the GFS with regard to Monday/tuesday, but fortunately its still not so keen on the storm of the 27th. Fingers crossed its on to something.

Meglet Sat 21-Dec-13 20:54:08

Henceforth this will be known as the Xmas I spent more time worrying about my fence than actually organising Xmas.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 21-Dec-13 20:56:15

You need to ask Santa for a new fence!

Is it worth just taking it down and stashing it until the weather calms down?

HesterShaw Sat 21-Dec-13 21:10:34

Xcweather are saying 75mph on Tuesday for west Cornwall!

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 21-Dec-13 21:26:58

Spotty, please don't let them travel Tuesday morning, it now looks equally, if not more severe than Monday. They need to wait until the afternoon or travel Monday morning.

Could gust up to 80mph along the south coast.

SpottyChristmasCakes Sat 21-Dec-13 21:30:07

Ooo ok I will pass it on! thanks

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 21-Dec-13 21:34:22

Glad you saw my post, I suddenly worried that it was out of the frying pan....

inamerrymuckingfuddle Sat 21-Dec-13 21:38:55

Starting to get a bit worried now, durham to Wiltshire on tues, we have to do it, but will it be awful and if so when's the best time to go...?! Crystal ball time kitten, sorry!

SpottyChristmasCakes Sat 21-Dec-13 21:39:04

I'm not sure I can dissuade them confused

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 21-Dec-13 21:42:22

Fuddle, leave it as late as you can. You might find roads blocked due to fallen trees, but at least they won't be falling on you!

Spotty, what time are they aiming to go?

inamerrymuckingfuddle Sat 21-Dec-13 21:44:09

Thanks kitten, you're a star

NK5BM3 Sat 21-Dec-13 21:47:13

Hi kitten
We are due to travel on Monday from kent to the Manchester area. What are your thoughts? With 2 kids (5, 3) and presents!! Should I buy an emergency turkey and stay here instead??!!

SpottyChristmasCakes Sat 21-Dec-13 21:50:21

She said morning...I assume 9/10.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 21-Dec-13 21:55:15

NK5 obviously keep an eye on the met office warnings and that goes for everyone really, these are important decisions and I don't want anyone to get hurt because I made the wrong call. That would be truly awful.

I wouldn't cancel your trip if it were me personally but I would be on the road very early and aiming to complete the journey before lunch time, by midday the met office is saying approx 50-60mph for the manchester area. Best thing though would be to go tomorrow and then hate me when it's all been not as bad as predicted!

TheDoctrineOfSanta Sat 21-Dec-13 21:55:26

I knew I should have finished work on Thursday. Fingers crossed for commuter trains on Monday.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 21-Dec-13 21:57:07

Well the positive side to that spotty is that the storm should be in full flow before then and they should be able to tune in to local radio and hear about any road closures etc and get a good measure of it.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 21-Dec-13 21:57:35

Doctrine, you should get in fine.......

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 21-Dec-13 22:04:09

bbc have a nice little weather forecast on it.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 21-Dec-13 22:09:41

national rail are warning of potential disruption Monday.

TheDoctrineOfSanta Sat 21-Dec-13 22:10:21

I also want to get back fine fgrin, hopefully leave london around 1700...

TheDoctrineOfSanta Sat 21-Dec-13 22:10:55

Ta! I will keep the site open on my phone for latest rail news.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 21-Dec-13 22:11:56

18z GFS is out now. Hang on a mo......

NK5BM3 Sat 21-Dec-13 22:12:56

Ahh! We can't go tomorrow because... We've not packed yet. Seriously. Aggh.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 21-Dec-13 22:16:27

Still a 930hPa low. Looks pretty similar, perhaps not quite so windy on Tuesday for the south but Monday in the south and through the night still looks severe and also northern Scotland still looks severe on Tuesday. High winds everywhere and even in the midlands still gusting to 60mph or so.

piratecat Sat 21-Dec-13 22:34:34

hi there, you mentioned storms on the 27th, would this affect the south west?

Have relative flying in from southern europe to devon mid morning. x

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sat 21-Dec-13 22:38:02

Piratecat two out of the three main models are showing the storm on the 27th. If it happened as they forecast then yes I would expect some disruption.

piratecat Sat 21-Dec-13 23:59:11

oh poo balls.

guess we will wait and see.

thanks thoughsmile

MooseBeTimeForSnow Sun 22-Dec-13 00:43:19

Hi Pacific
Yes, I'm in Northern Canada smile

leesmum Sun 22-Dec-13 07:46:52

Just had a huge flash of lightening and thunder!!! And now throwing it down in nth Manchester fsad

digerd Sun 22-Dec-13 08:35:11

S.Herts.
All quiet here - hope it's not the lull before the storm. It can wait until I've been out with the dog.

digerd Sun 22-Dec-13 08:40:39

Ooh. The sky is breaking up into blue bits to the south, but seems to be struggling hmm

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 22-Dec-13 08:54:02

At the moment the low hasn't even become a closed off low pressure, but if you follow it through GFS it just 'bombs' going from 985hPa to 935hPa in 24 hours and then deepening to 930hPa.

My advice, which you should take very guardedly and checking with the met office site, remembering that overrules anything I say, and also remembering that things can change rapidly and unexpectedly in weather, so use your own common sense is (sorry about the really poor grammar!):

If you have to travel in the south then do so early tomorrow, the earlier the better or leave it if you can until later on Tuesday. If you are in the north, especially the NW and Scotland then it would be better to travel tomorrow weather wise. What happens on the roads and rail though I cannot forecast, weather is my thing!

Will catch up with the forecast in more detail a bit later, am on my ipad in bed and my ipad isn't fab for this.

SpottyChristmasCakes Sun 22-Dec-13 08:56:49

Digerd it's still raining in my part of Sussex cloud seems to be thinning though.

Oybbk I have a twenty minute journey to work tomorrow lunch time and finish at 6:30 it's going to be a crappy drive isn't it?!

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 22-Dec-13 09:04:38

With regards to the 27th/28th all 3 main models are back to modelling it. It seems a little further north to me, taking the worst of the winds through the midlands. It's not good news, GFS has it as a 940hPa low and again rapidly deepening as it approaches. ECMWF isn't quite as developmental. So at the moment, it does look like there will be storm but its severity and position are yet to be pinned down.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 22-Dec-13 09:19:39

I'm reading some very worried posts about both storms from people who are normally pretty restrained forecasters.

One thing I've neglected to highlight is the very high rainfall totals for some, with a couple of inches over the two days possible in some areas. Surface flooding could start to become a real issue.

Apologies for repeating my posts in this and the Weather warning thread, I seem to have different people following in each one and my thoughts apply equally to both threads.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 22-Dec-13 09:28:27

estofex are forecasting more lightning for today.

oadcb Sun 22-Dec-13 09:39:56

Tuning in..... Any major concerns for Cornwall please oybbk?

SpottyChristmasCakes Sun 22-Dec-13 09:42:44

Hmm it's already pretty flooded round here

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 22-Dec-13 09:49:37

Oad, very much so for tomorrow, especially for the morning into the early afternoon. I think pretty widespread gusts of 70mph are possible, perhaps higher along the coast. High mean wind speed too.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 22-Dec-13 09:50:44

Situation is pretty complex really!!

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 22-Dec-13 09:51:59

Which means I guess that in the SW take great care about travelling in the morning too. Oh dear!

TheDoctrineOfSanta Sun 22-Dec-13 09:52:24

We have to drive from J5 on the N4 to Cardiff on Tuesday. It's not looking good fsad

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 22-Dec-13 09:55:56

Doctrine, try and leave it later in the day if you can, certainly don't go first thing!

oadcb Sun 22-Dec-13 09:57:53

Oh no snuggles with friends newborn planned. Will assess in morning. Thank you.

myrtleWilson Sun 22-Dec-13 09:58:02

Am supposed to be driving from NE England to Reading area tomorrow... Will it be hours of fun?!

Geckos48 Sun 22-Dec-13 10:38:28

I am working in and around salisbury on Christmas night, Boxing Day and Boxing Day night.

I am praying the weather isn't too fierce as I have to get to my calls!

SpottyChristmasCakes Sun 22-Dec-13 10:42:30

I think it's going to settle Christmas Day?

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 22-Dec-13 10:43:48

Geckos, it looks much calmer over Christmas day and Boxing day. something to be thankful for!

myrtle. That isnt ideal. Hopefully central England wont be too bad but it still will be very windy indeed. Keep an eye on the highways agency and do take risks if it starts to look dangerous. If the police say stay off the roads they mean it!

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 22-Dec-13 10:44:47

In fact the highways agency have issued a severe weather alert.

Geckos48 Sun 22-Dec-13 11:01:23

Yes I've just read on the other thread, I feel sorry for my work colleagues out in the terrible weather but very very glad I will be missing it!

BiscuitsAreMyDownfall Sun 22-Dec-13 11:01:59

Thanks Kitten

Are we just looking at wind and rain then or is there still chance of snow?

Im driving down the A1 in North Yorkshire on Christmas day and up to Newcastle 27th. Will be keeping an eye on the second storm that has been mentioned for the 27th

Hope people get to their destinations safely over the next week or so.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 22-Dec-13 11:12:19

Some snow may come in off the west coasts on saturday, esp 'up north' sorry, theres so much to look at that snow has fallen off my radar. It seems rather likely to me that northern scotland could well be seeing blizzards on Christmas eve, esp over high ground.

06Z GFS is out and I'm afraid it isnt any better sad Rare to not have a bit of downgrading by now. Storm on the 27th/28th is still also very much an 'oh shit' storm.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 22-Dec-13 12:09:26

yellow warnings for snow in Scotland are up now. The wind warnings are still missing.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 22-Dec-13 12:29:09

half updated warnings with just yellows for scotland and no wind yet for the south. That will change!! I expect some of the scottish yellows will turn to amber tomorrow and there is no way on earth that tomorrows weather doesnt warrant warnings in the south.

I'm off out now, so someone else will need to update when the warnings are fully updated. I can check in on my phone.

Perihelion Sun 22-Dec-13 13:15:03

Blazing sunshine forecast for Edinburgh for Christmas....just a wee bit more wind and rain first smile

nannynick Sun 22-Dec-13 13:28:46

White Christmas in Scotland perhaps. Coming through perthshire could see snowcapped mountain tops. Sunny right now in Aberdeen but there are a few days yet for snow to come.

BlackeyedShepherdswatchsheep Sun 22-Dec-13 14:20:47

definitely orange in the south now for rain

south and south wales

myrtleWilson Sun 22-Dec-13 14:59:51

Thanks Badkitten!

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 22-Dec-13 16:46:51

Ok so to round up we have

tomorrow:
Severe gales along the south coast, with the Sw being affected by late morning and the EA coast and SE early afternoon through the night.
Gales through southern counties. Flooding likely with very heavy rain.
Snow in the NW and central areas of scotland.
Very windy everywhere.

Tuesday:
Severe gales in central and NW Scotland.
Blizzards in central and NW Scotland.
Heavy rain continues in the south for a while.
Windy everywhere.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 22-Dec-13 16:50:37
noblegiraffe Sun 22-Dec-13 17:30:33

If I'm travelling east along the M4 from Cardiff to London tomorrow and leave at 6am, will I miss the worst of it? I'm going to have a carful of kids and presents and getting a bit worried.

digerd Sun 22-Dec-13 17:59:10

Spotty
We did have a sunny day from 9am until dark. A while ago I heard it pelting down, but quiet again now.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 22-Dec-13 18:00:44

You will, that would be a good plan noble.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 22-Dec-13 18:02:30

looks like some snow for the pennines tomorrow too I think.

noblegiraffe Sun 22-Dec-13 18:15:56

Thanks Kitten!

idobelieveinfairies Sun 22-Dec-13 18:25:26

We are on red alert now for the Channel Islands tomorrow :/ the bad weather coming in two bands apparently.

Sounds scary!

Meglet Sun 22-Dec-13 19:18:54

Idobeliveinfairies wow, have you battened down the hatches?

We're on amber rain and yellow wind in Hampshire. I'm still worrying about my fence.

I'd much prefer a decent dumping of snow, at least the kids can play out if it snows, they're stuck inside when it's rainy.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 22-Dec-13 20:50:57

I'll post an update when the next GFS comes out at about 10:30 (hopefully I will still be awake!)

idobelieveinfairies Sun 22-Dec-13 21:18:53

It's looking pretty school Beaufort 12 according to some forecasts!

Would much rather snow too!!

smile

We love you kitten wine I usually love a good bit of weather but the timing of this one is wrong wrong wrong.

BlastOff Sun 22-Dec-13 21:21:54

Hmmm travelling from west mids to south east tomorrow. Wondering whether to leave it til Tuesday, but will it be just as bad then?

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 22-Dec-13 21:42:15

It would be better weather wise on Tuesday. Evein if you get through the high winds its going to be very very wet indeed.

D&p wine the timing is so rubbish and that's what has made me concerned with people travelling a long way and a storm that begins in the day.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 22-Dec-13 22:09:24

18z GFS is in. Looks very similar to the 06z, no weird double centre to it, tight pressure gradient in the south tomorrow, even tighter pressure gradient NW Scotland Tuesday. Some very heavy and prolonged rain in the south and snow in Scotland and perhaps over the Pennines. No changes from my previous forecast.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 22-Dec-13 22:20:11

Hyde park winter wonderland is closed tomorrow due to the weather.

HerdyTheRedNosedHerdwick Sun 22-Dec-13 22:21:31

Kitten I may be a bit confused but did you say up there ^^ that the 27/28 th dont look good?
I'm driving from south Cheshire to Cumbria. I need to be in Cumbria for 3pm. Its about a 2.5 hour drive usually.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 22-Dec-13 22:27:20

It looks really pretty awful. I'll update tomorrow about the next storm when we start to know how this one is panning out.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 22-Dec-13 22:29:32

In saying that Herdy, at the moment I'd be aiming to leave on Friday morning. At present it actually looks to have wider and more prolonged impact than tomorrow's storm.

HerdyTheRedNosedHerdwick Sun 22-Dec-13 22:37:01

Thanks so much kitten. I can leave any time after 7am and no later than 12 noon. Will look out for your updates.

PacificDingbat Sun 22-Dec-13 22:41:54

Kitten, just to let you know I just did my Big Christmas Shop because I fear the weather is going to be truly awful here in Scotland tomorrow - alerted by your thread, so thanks. It's done.
And even if the weather is not as bad as I fear tomorrow, it's still done <smug>

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 22-Dec-13 22:43:40

Well done pacific smile you can rest easy!

Wight link travel updates saying nada yet.

WaitingForPeterWimsey Sun 22-Dec-13 22:46:25

About to catch up on this.

DSis leaving home near Stansted to come up to the NorthEast to see us on the afternoon/evening of the 24th. Would she be ok to travel?

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 22-Dec-13 23:03:00

I think so, the storm should calm down fairly early in the south on Christmas Eve. It won't be great weather, very windy but hopefully over the worst.

sittingbythefairylights Sun 22-Dec-13 23:03:47

You are such a star, kitten!

Supposed to be skating in London tomorrow, at 11.15am.not winter wonderland, but think it's going to be a nightmare. If we can even get into Town!

WaitingForPeterWimsey Sun 22-Dec-13 23:06:05

Thank you smile

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 22-Dec-13 23:14:01

You are both welcome smile

I don't think I'd enjoy skating tomorrow!

BlastOff Sun 22-Dec-13 23:14:05

Thank you so much thanks

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 22-Dec-13 23:14:52

You are welcome blastoff smile

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 23-Dec-13 08:42:03

Morning all, quick forecast now, more later when I'm out of bed!

So the storm seems to be perhaps a little slower in terms of main impact in Scotland tomorrow. Unfortunately the result is a storm that will perhaps linger into Christmas Day. However it is right on track today sad pressures are dropping rapidly as the low pressure bombs (and meets the criteria for that twice over).

Flooding might not be quite so bad, but I don't think it means we can relax about that. Wind I think might be an issue even in non warned areas so take it easy where ever you are.

I will eat my snotty tissue if the met office don't issue an amber for the SE for late tonight when it still looks likely that some of it will see gusts of 70-80mph. Other than that, there is still the snow for Scotland to contend with, but also I think perhaps welsh hills and the Pennines.

SpottyChristmasCakes Mon 23-Dec-13 08:48:51

It's not raining here yet just a bit breezy. I'm sure it'll be nice and heavy when I have to go to work hmmgrin

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 23-Dec-13 08:52:40

We have some light rain and its a little blowy. I expect it to get a lot worse!

SpottyChristmasCakes Mon 23-Dec-13 08:58:08

I think you're east of me (as I'm sitting here dd has just put a belt around my neck confused) so I'm sure it's on its way!

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 23-Dec-13 09:00:34

West of you spotty smile am so glad I'm not going anywhere today, just pootling about with washing and whatnot.

SpottyChristmasCakes Mon 23-Dec-13 09:04:25

Argh west is what I meant blushblush

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 23-Dec-13 09:11:22

Being strangled does tend to disrupt concentration somewhat grin

PaschasDanglyReindeerBaubles Mon 23-Dec-13 09:17:30

I'm sitting here in my kitchen looking out at the marsh towards the coast - light cloud, a tiny bit of sunshine, blowy.

Then I go into my living room and look out towards Tenterden/Maidstone/Ashford and its all so dark! I appear to be right on the edge.

How long have I got til I should get the washing in?

amistillsexy Mon 23-Dec-13 09:25:47

Oybbk, when you say chances of snow over the penines, where do you think that will be? We're near junction 22 of m62 and we'd love some snow tomorrow, if you can manage it, please. grin

PacificDingbat Mon 23-Dec-13 10:00:12

Grey and dull here today, no wind to speak of.
More stormy in local M+S according DH's experience who has just come back from The Turkey Mission.

Happy Christmas week to you all fsmile

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 23-Dec-13 10:03:07

I think it will over the higher passes if it happens. Not great for those wanting to travel between sheffield and manchester!

And probably buxton. Buxton always gets it!

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 23-Dec-13 10:04:52

Pascha, Id get it in now if you havent already done so!

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 23-Dec-13 10:10:12

still a lot of concern today for the south from some well seasoned, notoriously calm forecasters.

thekingfisher Mon 23-Dec-13 10:18:36

kitten - would we be mental to drive into London now and be heading back to North essex at around 6 tonight - we are wavering have cancelled train tickets and were going to drive - now are completely in a mix and can't decide what to do.

we have tickets for charlie and chic factory which have been bought for us - going with friends - but hey are staying in london - we can't have to get back...

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 23-Dec-13 10:27:54

kingfisher, consider it carefully. Journey now will be ok. Have you got to go over the dartford crossing? Winds arent forecast to get really really strong until later tonight, so whilst my sensible hat says maybe not, if it were me I might go (cos I'm not always a 'do as I say' person)

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 23-Dec-13 10:28:09

So, the storm for Friday/Saturday:

At the moment gFS has it on the edge of NI by Thursday midnight. Its a different sort of set up from today, at the moment it is modelled to be a mature storm and slowly weakening as it moves over us. Nevertheless the central pressure is forecast to go down to 940hPa.

By Friday evening it will be affecting the whole of the UK with strong/gale force winds. The rain although heavy in places shouldnt be as problematic today, except that it will be falling on saturated ground. Id say at the moment the worst affected areas look to be northern england and the midlands, but this may well change. It is a very slow moving storm and unfortunately will cause issues right through Saturday for the north.

Outlook is for it to remain very unsettled but some hints of winter arriving in January.

sittingbythefairylights Mon 23-Dec-13 10:37:02

Well, we're in London waiting for our ice skating session. Fairly quiet, few gusts but dry at the moment. Expecting the rain to start just as we get on the ice.

More worried about the journey home up the met line. Lots of trees on route home. Think we'll go straight back rather than looking around shops.

PaschasDanglyReindeerBaubles Mon 23-Dec-13 10:45:53

OK its in - about 80% dry so thats good. Tumble dryer can do the rest. Wind is picking up a bit, spitting about but still quite bright.

I'm looking forward to some wintery weather. January you say? That suits me. Got DS1 some Fireman Sam snow boots for christmas so he will be happy.

thekingfisher Mon 23-Dec-13 11:11:53

Thanks kitten we are braving it and have packed overnight bag in case of emergencies !

HerdyTheRedNosedHerdwick Mon 23-Dec-13 11:13:31

Kitten thanks for the update for Fri/Sat too.
The M6 is horrendous at the best of times and it's not looking good. I wish I could go up to Cumbria on Thursday night but I can't.

Meanwhile is anyone currently in Buckinghamshire/Northants ? What's it doing there right now please?

HesterShaw Mon 23-Dec-13 11:18:27

Absolutely miserable here! Very glad we delayed our journey for 24 hours.

Just had a 61mph gust and the rain is coming into the kitchen conservatory and down the chimney again. Waaaaah sad

HesterShaw Mon 23-Dec-13 11:18:42

Oops, wrong thread.

LurcioLovesFrankie Mon 23-Dec-13 11:20:44

Thought you might all like to have a play with this (not sure if it works in IE - you may have to open in firefox). It's yesterday's NCEP forecast for today's winds, beautifully displayed. Defaults to surface winds - you can see the depression off to the west, incredibly strong southwesterlies and what looks to me like a sting-jet just SSE of the depression centre.

earth.nullschool.net/

If you click on "earth" in the bottom left, you can select upper level winds - 250hPa will give you the jet stream and you can see what the BBC's Peter Gibbs is talking about when he says the steering jet is incredibly strong.

digerd Mon 23-Dec-13 11:32:16

S. Herts
Just noticed the gusts have increased in velocity and ferocity. hmm

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 23-Dec-13 11:33:07

hester - its as good a thread as any :-) We've been admiring it here. Hope there isnt a sting jet, its possible though I guess, with the rapid deepening.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 23-Dec-13 11:34:51

oops, forgot to separate the two comments. Bit distracted here, have lots of weather going on, people phoning, head over a bowl of menthol crystals and cats who think its all terribly exciting. Half of that was to Lurcio!

LurcioLovesFrankie Mon 23-Dec-13 11:38:49

Should reiterate - it's yesterday's forecast data, not observations or analysis - so won't be 100% what's going on at the moment. But still a beautiful tool for visualizing what's going on. (It's blowing a hooley down here in the SW at the moment).

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Mon 23-Dec-13 11:40:36

amber warnings for the SE

I think the northern ambers will go up later today.

LurcioLovesFrankie Mon 23-Dec-13 11:41:12

0600 analysis chart suggests low is further south than shown on the nullschool site.