Possible severe gales on Monday 28th.

(955 Posts)
OhYouWickedWickedWitch Wed 23-Oct-13 14:10:38

I'm keeping a pretty close eye on developments for Monday. some of the models (in particular gfs) are showing a deep low developing over England, with the majority of the gfs runs taking the worst of the wind over the south.

Massive if. But if the weather were to pan out as those models are suggesting it would be a damaging storm, especially given the trees still being in leaf. I'd keep an eye on the met office early warnings page and if they start warning about it then it would be a good weekend to tidy the garden before you lose your stuff wink

I'll update as things become clearer.

SnakeyMcBadass Wed 23-Oct-13 14:33:01

Gah. I hate strong winds. Freaks me right out. How far north might it go, do you think? I'm south Derbyshire.

SuperiorCat Wed 23-Oct-13 14:39:00

Thanks for the warning kitten, time to put away the garden furniture and secure the trampoline

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Wed 23-Oct-13 15:02:33

Snakey, utterly impossible to know at the moment I'm afraid, the models are too divergent. As soon as they start to converge on a solution I'll update smile

SnakeyMcBadass Wed 23-Oct-13 15:47:34

Thanks Kitten/Witch <nails down trampoline in case>

HesterShaw Wed 23-Oct-13 15:51:43

Oh hurray a storm for half term. Yes I've been looking ar the possibly of 70mph gusts for Cornwall.

Bilpbip Wed 23-Oct-13 15:58:40

DS is going on the ferry to Ireland on Monday 28th... oh dear sad

leesmum Wed 23-Oct-13 16:54:45

Thanks for keeping everyone updated Kitten

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Wed 23-Oct-13 17:09:53

dh is supposed to be flying out then. oh dear here too!
Still it is early days, so plenty may change yet!

LineRunner Wed 23-Oct-13 17:11:20

Bugger.

SpookyTeacakes Wed 23-Oct-13 18:09:41

Ooo marking my place for this. We've got a very dodgy fence which probably won't survive hmm

29chapel Wed 23-Oct-13 18:12:07

us too spooky and we are flying out on Monday... think DH will spend the w/e fixing the fence - he'll be delighted.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Wed 23-Oct-13 19:33:03

Latest gfs takes the winds through France instead. There is about as much uncertainty as there possibly can be with this potential little nasty.

digerd Thu 24-Oct-13 06:20:51

Will the winds be westerly, southerly or SW?

KenDoddsDadsDog Thu 24-Oct-13 06:23:35

Oh dear I'm flying back from holiday on Monday sad

digerd Thu 24-Oct-13 06:27:38

Many trees in our area have been dropping their leaves for the last 2 weeks. I assume it was the very dry hot summer, or an omen of things coming early?
We normally have our Autumn Colour display after 29th October - or used to- and some years didn't fall until well into Novemberhmm

Marks place. We're on a hill facing the sea so feel the storms!

Carol on Breakfast has just mentioned the potential for Monday - she said it could be "gales, severe gales, or the potential to be something more than that"

Meglet Thu 24-Oct-13 07:07:44

This could be the death knell for a couple of my fence panels.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Thu 24-Oct-13 07:38:00

3 main models look very different!!

GFS has a wind storm tracking over England giving severe gales across southern England.

UKMO has a fairly deep large low to the north of the UK giving generalised strong winds.

ECMWF gives a less deep solution, but I can't quite work out the track.

So it's all still in the air (so to speak)

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Thu 24-Oct-13 07:40:07

Manky. Perfect summary.

One option though is instead of a discrete low forming a squall line develops giving brief severe gusts with erm the potential for more tornadoes.

Digerd, impossible to give the direction of the wind until we know the track of any storm that develops.

TheDoctrineOfAnyFucker Thu 24-Oct-13 07:40:34

<marks place>

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Thu 24-Oct-13 07:45:35

The Bracknell fax chart takes the storm winds through France.

NAVGEM takes a less strong storm to the north of the UK.

Aaargh!!

todaysdate Thu 24-Oct-13 07:48:21

Nooo
We are moving house on Monday!

capercaillie Thu 24-Oct-13 07:50:51

Watching with interest...we'll be in Wales

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Thu 24-Oct-13 07:58:01

Rotten timing todaysdate. Suggest everything is securely boxed!

SpookyTeacakes Thu 24-Oct-13 08:12:15

I have to work...is severe wind a good enough excuse not to go in? wink

GobbySadcaseFucker Thu 24-Oct-13 08:15:19

Argh. Supposed to be driving to Wales on Monday.

digerd Thu 24-Oct-13 08:56:59

What happened to our summer warmth? Last night went down to 4 degrees and is still only 5 despite the sun shiningconfused
Worse still, my heating will not go offangry.
It did turn out sunny after 9am yesterday but was much cooler and fresher than the equatorial feel of the day before. Even more confused at our recent weather.
At least it is a clear blue skysmile
hmm wondering what to wear this morning for dog walk. Surely it will warm up by 10am?

SpookyTeacakes Thu 24-Oct-13 09:09:45

Met office app says max of 15 today...

digerd Thu 24-Oct-13 09:48:25

When I lived in Northern Germany, not far from the north sea, the westerlies were strong but never came in stormy gusts. The wind was at a constant speed. Wonder why we have these ferocious gusts that cause damage?

Makinglists Thu 24-Oct-13 11:32:53

We'll our local paper is reporting that Monday's storm will be the worse in decades (Plymouth herald) not being known for its reliable reporting I will be keeping an eye on OYWWW posts! But am getting a bit concerned!!!

shallweshop Thu 24-Oct-13 11:35:50

Oh bugger - off to Center Parcs Longleat on Monday.

HesterShaw Thu 24-Oct-13 11:44:21

From what I've seen, I'm not sure if it will be the worst in decades. A bit draughty perhaps, but certainly not the 90mph we had the other winter. Interestingly this didn't even make it onto the news because we're not in the south east of England.

Could be wrong of course....

HesterShaw Thu 24-Oct-13 11:51:31

Oh if the herald is getting excited I won't bother worrying - they're always wrong grin

Makinglists Thu 24-Oct-13 12:43:20

Yep if the herald are reporting a storm it will prob be fine and sunny. That said will be watching posts and met office with interest I love dramatic weather!

PeppermintScreams Thu 24-Oct-13 12:45:02

We'll be staying by Pagham harbour then. <packs inflatable boat*>

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Thu 24-Oct-13 12:58:20

The express were also screaming about 90mph winds the other day which means nothing will happen grin

going to look at the latest models now.

HesterShaw Thu 24-Oct-13 12:59:33

Oh the Express. That well known meteorological source of wisdom, common sense and science.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Thu 24-Oct-13 13:05:59

oh dear.

amber warning already from the met office.

If you look at the matrix here you can see that there is pretty high uncertainty but if it does develop as it could the impact would be high.

Looking at 80mph+ gusts worse case scenario.

Which is enough to cause substantial disruption. Where I am all the leaves are still on the trees.

HesterShaw Thu 24-Oct-13 13:08:29

Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck! My boat!

ouryve Thu 24-Oct-13 13:15:40

Glad to be up North, for once. We just get wet, this time.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Thu 24-Oct-13 13:15:57

Models are still all over the place. I'm not surprised, its a really complex situation, with the storm not even developing until Sunday night. I don't think we will really know what is going to happen until Sunday!

mummylin Thu 24-Oct-13 13:22:36

What can we expect in Bournemouth Kitten ?

nomorecrumbs Thu 24-Oct-13 13:27:42

Really digerd? I thought Autumn was late this year. Most trees are nearly all green still here in London.

Okay I am slightly worried about my dodgy roof now...

Clutterbugsmum Thu 24-Oct-13 13:54:34

What about Torquay. We are taking the children down there for a few days. Monday to Friday, we staying a holiday park.

Torbay is included in the severe weather warning. But who knows, it might miss this bit of Devon out completely.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Thu 24-Oct-13 14:38:55

as jimjams says, we have no real idea at the moment where will be hit worst if it even develops. However, currently I'd say the balance of models probably hint at the south coast being worst hit.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Thu 24-Oct-13 14:40:11

if it goes south into France then flooding could be somewhat of an issue I think and we would start to see rain warnings for the event.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Thu 24-Oct-13 14:41:26

good press release from the met office.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Thu 24-Oct-13 14:44:47
digerd Thu 24-Oct-13 15:42:05

I am remembering 70s-80s. And in 2001 or was it 2 my heating didn't go on until 10th Dec.
There are many tree leaves on the ground even if the trees are not bare yet. The storm winds will blow many more off.
2 small trees opposite me are bare, but the enormous Ornamental dark leaved plum tree is hanging on to its. < it's the culprit for blocking the sun from my window at this time of year and forcing me to use more gas grrrr>. Of course, the ivy smothering a crab apple tree < latter does not bloom anymoresad> is evergreen.
We have 17 degrees in the shade atm and was very warm in the sun at 2.30pm

HesterShaw Thu 24-Oct-13 15:46:24

Eeeeeeeeeeeeeeek!

So, the eye of the storm is most likely to go dancing off over west and south Wales, yes? And the most damaging areas of a storm are around the edges of the centre i.e. south west/south England and north Wales, is that right?

ElbowPrincess Thu 24-Oct-13 15:49:02

Ach, nothing exciting for Scotland then?

ICameOnTheJitney Thu 24-Oct-13 15:51:54

Oh bottoms. I am planning a day out on Monday with a friend and our DC!

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Thu 24-Oct-13 15:52:14

at current forecast probably not elbow, but it could be rather wet.

I'm going to be busy for a few hours but will update as soon as I get back tonight smile

HesterShaw Thu 24-Oct-13 15:52:46

OYWWW, remember the other day when I asked about the low over Greenland which was 956mb? Well, is that what's coming here or does it not work like that?

RustyBear Thu 24-Oct-13 15:54:16

"Four or five days before the storm struck, forecasters predicted severe weather was on the way. As they got closer, however, weather prediction models started to give a less clear picture. Instead of stormy weather over a considerable part of the UK, the models suggested severe weather would pass to the south of England - only skimming the south coast."

That was the storm of October 1987. I seem to remember that one was preceded by a few days of unseasonably warm weather - and my Weather pro app is saying 18 degrees tomorrow and 17 on Saturday...

FunnyRunner Thu 24-Oct-13 15:54:29

For once they're going to miss those of us oooop north!

piratecat Thu 24-Oct-13 16:00:16

oh for heavens sake, i have a funny feeling my train from London to Devon will not be running. Exeter floods all the bloody time.

OhChristYouFuckersHavent Thu 24-Oct-13 16:01:35

Right, I will be in the garden this weekend putting away garden furniture, cutting back branches, putting away garden toys, oh and nailing down the summerhouse, again!

I'm glad I didn't get those fences replaced yet - thank you for this smile

BadRoly Thu 24-Oct-13 16:08:01

So assuming Cornwall is going to be hit, what is the best thing to do to secure the kids' trampoline? It doesn't have a net so I guess flipping it over is safest?

BuzzardBirdBloodBath Thu 24-Oct-13 16:50:37

OP, are you MSC by any chance? wink

mummylin Thu 24-Oct-13 17:06:54

Oh my god , it looks like it will be right over Dorset. I won't be going out in that

YoureAllABunchOfBastards Thu 24-Oct-13 17:15:15

Great time to head to Cornwall for the week, then. hurray.

BadRoly Thu 24-Oct-13 17:23:37

YoureAll - it could be worse, you could live here wink

Theimpossiblegirl Thu 24-Oct-13 17:27:20

If my fences blow down, is it likely they would be covered by our insurance?

shallweshop Thu 24-Oct-13 17:30:50

Think of us in our log cabin in the middle of Longleat Forest hmm.

If the Express say it nothing will happen

I had a tree guy come round to quote for a job and he said that the express said it was going to snow from the beginning of November until the end of February

I said hmm and he was put out, claimed it was definitely going to happen and would probably mean he couldn't do my tree work

Total bugger really as his quote was the cheapest grin

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Thu 24-Oct-13 18:12:46

Just popping back to say the latest gFS still looks nasty. worst of the winds are in the channel with that one but still severe gales for the south.

I'll try and do a 'splanation of where the storm is coming from tonight or tomorrow. Speed eating my dinner while typing and looking atm.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Thu 24-Oct-13 18:13:23

shallweshop confused

Laurie - what a cheeky bugger shock

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Thu 24-Oct-13 18:14:07

RB I can see why you might be thinking that - though this is coming from a different region.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Thu 24-Oct-13 18:14:48

badroly - thats a really good idea - then you can weight it down. Good thinking smile

InkleWinkle Thu 24-Oct-13 18:16:09

If you were to be flying into Scottish airport (west) late Sunday night would it be seatbelt / sick bag territory??

DanielHellHoundMcSpaniel Thu 24-Oct-13 18:17:02

Goodness! We're sitting just above the Romney Marsh. Should we be nailing down anything/removing the garden slide etc?

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Thu 24-Oct-13 18:25:39

from where winkle?

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Thu 24-Oct-13 18:28:01

catch you all later smile

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Thu 24-Oct-13 18:28:53

Mcspaniel. I'd think about how you may need to prepare but maybe not do it til Sunday.

lirael Thu 24-Oct-13 18:44:24

Going to St Ives on Saturday - staying in a cottage, rather than camping, thank goodness. Is Cornwall going to be hairy then?

DanielHellHoundMcSpaniel Thu 24-Oct-13 18:45:23

Oh god. Thank you. I will be watching this thread. I give you just as much credence as the met office now OYSSS smile

YoureAllABunchOfBastards Thu 24-Oct-13 18:51:02

BadRoly wish I did live there! As DH said tonight, I'd rather be in Cornwall in a storm than here full stop.

maudpringle Thu 24-Oct-13 18:51:25

oh no dh is flying up from Spain to Bristol on monday sad

youarewinning Thu 24-Oct-13 18:57:11

I'm Hampshire South Coast. Feel I may be charging Ipad and driving alone beach front filming on Monday grin Off to check tide times and see if they are compatable. <disclaimer: the bit I'm going to does not have houses along it and theres no risk of damage to property - I wouldn't find that exciting at all>

AnyaKnowIt Thu 24-Oct-13 19:05:41

When you say its moving towards France? What about the channel isles?

Eeeek, I am flying back to London from Amsterdam on Monday afternoon..... <wibble>

Eeeek, I am flying back to London from Amsterdam on Monday afternoon..... <wibble>

So wibbly I posted it twice.... confused

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Thu 24-Oct-13 22:05:49

Anya, I'll have a proper look for you tomorrow (rare pub visit tonight!) I want to double check my thoughts.

AnyaKnowIt Thu 24-Oct-13 22:40:32

thanks

digerd Fri 25-Oct-13 07:03:17

The air flights in storm winds has reminded me of one time only coming into Heathrow
The plane was violently rocking, shaking and juddering from side to side as we were landing. We passengers were terrified and a deathly silence descended on the plane. I was gripping on to my arm rest for dear life . We were just above the landing strip and was sure the wings would scrape the ground.
The pilot got us down safely and we all cheered - phew smile

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 07:20:59

Might be slightly bad timing that tale digerd grin still we should take away the happy fact that you are alive to tell us this tale!

Models are still producing all sorts of different results. GFS doesn't develop the storm and instead we get widespread lesser gales. UKMO however does produce them. northern Germany and Denmark would possibly get it even worse than us.

anya, at the moment it's impossible to tell, it depends on the track. I wouldprepare for it though in general terms as it doesn't take much of a jiggle in course for northern France (and hence you) to cop the brunt of it.

Oh dear. We are getting the ferry from Hull to Rotterdam overnight on Monday. It's not going to be a fun trip is it? envy <-- me feeling sea sick!

Meglet Fri 25-Oct-13 07:32:49

rusty I was wondering if this would turn into an October 87 level storm confused.

It will be a miracle if my fence survives Monday.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 08:03:33

oh golly thehappycamper.

I've looked at the metoffice weather maps. At the moment the worst of the gales go through between midnight and 9am, with gusts hitting 70mph through parts of central England, as well as the south coast.

It will be interesting to see how it evolves. Anya - that would keep you out of the worst of it, but things may still change drastically.

VirtuousVamp Fri 25-Oct-13 08:16:55

Hmmm. We are flying back in a turbo prop plane To Southampton late on Sunday evening, should I pack spare underwear for a cancelled flight???confused

Love exciting weather if I know everyone is going to be ok!

Thanks for the updates OYWWW. I'm a normal lurker but breaking cover!grin

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 08:29:01

At the moment (and this may very well change!) the met office map shows gusts to about 50mph at 10pm at southampton gusting to 54mph by midnight and 70mph at 3am.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 08:29:57

I'm going to be out this am - but hoping for a good look at the situation this afternoon and will try and tackle some of the questions that have come up smile

GobbySadcase Fri 25-Oct-13 08:32:30

I'm giving it every bit of go south vibes I can get!

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 08:32:33

ECMWF has the storm going through later, through Monday morning daylight hours rather than dark o'clock.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 08:32:59

Poor France gobby!

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 08:36:04
musicposy Fri 25-Oct-13 08:44:53

Thank you for this, Kitten, as I probably wouldn't have noticed the warnings. It's DH's last day off today so I've just told him to secure everything in the garden. We're Chichester, right on the South Coast.

I do hope it improves later in the week, we're due to get the ferry to France Friday for the day (glad I didn't book Monday!) But that's a whole other question I will ask after this is all over!

rubyrubyruby Fri 25-Oct-13 08:54:30

I hate high winds!
At least I'm not supposed to be working on Monday - I would have to cancel.

digerd Fri 25-Oct-13 09:25:41

Had the flu jab yesterday, but tomorrow must prune my neighbour's dead,deseased plum tree which is hanging over my shed roof.
The very tall, old pinetree on the towpath I am more worried about as is opposite my shed with a large open field behind it <with sheep in it>. They get the full force of the westerlies.

Shall I repeat my experience of my ferry journey from Harwich to Hamburg in a force 12 gale? NO? OKgrin
The young people in the disco at the top part of the ferry had a wonderful enjoyable time I was told. Dancing to the left and then to right. They found it hilarious .smile

digerd Fri 25-Oct-13 09:26:55

oops diseased.

FunnyRunner Fri 25-Oct-13 09:52:46

I think gusts of 60 or 70mph are usually fine unless you have loose tiles or light furniture in the garden. Just watch on the road for falling trees while driving as we had very bad summer gales here one time and it broke lots of branches and felled lots of trees which were in full leaf. Nightmare drive home that day due to fallen trees on roads and diversions. The leaves have been falling like mad here so not as risky.

1leggedwobbler Fri 25-Oct-13 10:31:03

I agree with funnyrunner, gusts up to 70mph are normally fine, just make sure your garden is tidy first & put as much stuff as possible into your garage.

Where I live, which is a small island off UK coast, 2 autumns ago we had a succession of 3 storms coming through & each one had Force 11 gusts & it was fine.

The PP who is flying in a small plane to southampton on Sunday will be fine. We have flights in very small planes going all the time in that weather here, my mum went on one this morning!

digerd Fri 25-Oct-13 11:17:39

Just returned from the dog walk and the breeze is really mild again. Leaves falling even faster and must be beware of walking under the oaks trees as we got pelted by showersof acorns falling off them. The squirrels were in a frenzy to collect as many as possible off the ground .
Seen more bare trees today.
The people I spoke to knew nothing about the storm warning.

lagoonhaze Fri 25-Oct-13 11:29:40

Grr two rare days off with children.

Looks like Eden and crealy Will be wash outs!

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 13:23:56

met office warnings have expanded.

Problem is, down in the south and central england our trees are not used to such wind loads and the main risks will be down to trees coming down.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 13:24:58

I noticed trees are turning more here too but temp outside is 17C and we are running 2.7C above the october CET average currently.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 13:27:05

Met office are no more certain about whether the storm will develop or not than they were yesterday! warnings matrix still shows low probability.

nulgirl Fri 25-Oct-13 13:36:51

I'm due to fly from Glasgow to London city first thing Monday morning. I'm normally a good flyer but am going to be anxious now all weekend.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 13:41:22

useful graphic of met office thoughts on track of storm.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 13:42:02

nulgirl. Don't be anxious - if it's not safe they will cancel it.

HesterShaw Fri 25-Oct-13 13:48:06

Looking at that meteociel.fr link, I can't actually make out Britain. Are we hidden under that dark red mass of awfulness, or do the French merely deem us too insignificant to include? grin
"Ah so les rosbifs are going to get...ow you say?....clobbered?" <Gallic shrug> <pffff sound>

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 14:04:01

Meteociel has the very very awfullest stuff going through the channel, but southern England coasts are at level 2 of awfulness!

I've been looking at when flights are cancelled due to high winds. If it goes through in the early hours then the worst will be through before rush hour. Seems that if its a headwind then depending on the aircraft spec they can takeoff at speeds of up to 50knts (58mph). If its a cross wind it is much lower.

Heathrow and Gatwick runways go east-west. southampton is a bit trickier it goes roughly north south.

Is there anyone who knows more about this stuff????

Theimpossiblegirl Fri 25-Oct-13 14:04:48

My plan of action:
Secure the garden.
Stock up on wine and candles.
Have some board games and food that doesn't need cooking handy.
Stay in.
I suggest you do the same if you can.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 14:09:39

Very similar indeed to my plan TIG smile

but mine involves charging up my phone and hanging onto my internet for as long as possible!

BlackeyedSusan Fri 25-Oct-13 14:13:38

oh joy. we have gone amber. the question is hose roof would I prefer to sleep under. my do a downstairs sleep over with the dc rather than go to mums and sleep under her chimney pot.

29chapel Fri 25-Oct-13 14:17:26

pants - 9am flight from Luton - OhYouWickedWitch any ideas if it's likely to be cancelled?

29chapel Fri 25-Oct-13 14:17:50

9am on MONDAY that is grin

Theimpossiblegirl Fri 25-Oct-13 14:18:14

Where are you all? I'm in Somerset.
Good idea about keeping phone charged.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 14:20:17

So where is this storm coming from?

We have a frontal wave on the western side of the Atlantic. It looks like it will interact with a very strong Jet Stream. Add in an upper trough coming down from Newfoundland, bringing in cold air and moist tropical air coming from the south and if they all interact just right you end up with an explosively deepening low.

The 1987 storm snuck in from the Bay of Biscay.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 14:21:40

29chapel. I'm not an aviation expert, but if the forecast doesnt change I'd expect some disruption.
I think that one of the main issues will be getting to the airport if we do get 70-80mph gusts.

29chapel Fri 25-Oct-13 14:24:46

ok thank you, i'll allow additional time to get there. I don't think i know what 80mph winds feel like to be honest!

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 14:25:16

Stick your head out of your car window down the motorway grin

I'm in Somerset too Theimpossiblegirl. Surrounded by trees. Will be spending tomorrow tidying the garden I think.

Theimpossiblegirl Fri 25-Oct-13 14:27:46

I see how you got your name- it's your sense of humour.
wink

Theimpossiblegirl Fri 25-Oct-13 14:29:11

I can see this thread becoming the place where we sit the storm out together. smile

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 14:41:48

grin

Apparently the storm is going to be called St Jude - cos Monday is St Jude's day.

ElbowPrincess Fri 25-Oct-13 14:54:27

Anything at all for Scotland?

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 15:11:37

At the moment it looks doubtful Elbowprincess though if it tracks further north then flooding could be an issue for you.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 15:13:08

good read for those who want to watch it develop on Satellite.

maudpringle Fri 25-Oct-13 15:29:48

Getting nervous now. Haven't spoken to dh yet so I am not sure if he is aware of the weather warning.
Somerset here too.

QuintsHollow Fri 25-Oct-13 15:32:19

Oh, what will it be like in Bournemouth?

mummylin Fri 25-Oct-13 15:35:21

Hello quints hollow, I too am in Bournemouth !

Another Somerset here too! Off to tidy up the garden...

QuintsHollow Fri 25-Oct-13 15:41:19

Hi there mummylin, long time no speak!

We have chosen Bournemouth as our half term weekend break.....

<wibble>

Might have to get the heck out of the area after Breakfast, en route to Bealieu for the Top Gear ...

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 15:44:52

will update more this evening smile

digerd Fri 25-Oct-13 15:57:47

The 1987 storm was also in October caused by cold polar air meeting tropical warm air and large differnces in the 2 pressure systems < not that I understand any of that> Did learn at school, many moons ago about how thunder and lightning was caused and that was similar - warm air meeting colder air.
18 degrees atm.

RustyBear Fri 25-Oct-13 16:11:14

Isn't St Jude the patron saint of desperate situations? We might all be praying to him come Monday... grin

Watching with interest. We live 50 yards from the sea on an exposed part of the coast in south Cornwall. We look directly out into the Channel grin.

It's already rather gusty here although incredibly warm and sunny. Sitting out on the deck with a cuppa and planning what to tie down...

VirtuousVamp Fri 25-Oct-13 16:43:43

Ooh it's does sound exciting but as I said before only if everyone is safe. Assuming plane lands on Sunday eve, I assume my car journey east into kent may not be advisable on Monday morning!!

maudpringle Fri 25-Oct-13 16:53:45

Thank you OYWWW

HesterShaw Fri 25-Oct-13 17:40:10

I'm getting more than slightly nervous. It's still telling us on xcweather that we'll be ok here.

<scurries off to check ugrib>

digerd Fri 25-Oct-13 17:42:49

Starfish envy. Warm here but sun behind all the trees and sky collecting more clouds now.

HesterShaw Fri 25-Oct-13 17:43:04

Hmmm. Even the Grib isn't saying anything more than about 45mph WNW.

digerd Fri 25-Oct-13 17:47:42

Is WNW for the SE too?

QuintsHollow Fri 25-Oct-13 18:05:21

Please help me, should we still drive to Bournemouth tonight????

LisaMed Fri 25-Oct-13 18:14:45

rant

I finally get ds to go further than 80 miles away from the house to the sodding Doctor Who Experience, bearing in mind ds doesn't like to go further than the end of the street, and we are taking a fucking train from Leeds to fucking Cardiff on Monday right into the fucking storm. We have been planning this for nearly a whole fucking year. Why this weekend? I have already paid for the fucking train tickets and the sodding hotel. I can't lose the money!

Thank you, rant over. And breathe.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 18:37:42

another tornado watch - for tonight here

<groans>

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 18:40:04

Lisa - what time are you travelling?

Just going to look at the latest models and updates.

AnyaKnowIt Fri 25-Oct-13 18:44:20

Channel isles have been issued with a warning by jersey met office

youarewinning Fri 25-Oct-13 18:46:09

Oh quint I live near Southampton and have told DS we'll do Beaulieu on Monday if weather bad as indoors grin

QuintsHollow Fri 25-Oct-13 18:49:31

Quite conserned about the drive back and forth, debris, etc

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 18:54:18

Latest GFS model (which is just one model and has been producing some pretty varying results over the last few model runs) is of the 'oh shit' variety.

The low is delayed a few hours and produces gusts of up to 80mph over densely populated areas of the south in daylight hours.

Let's hope its wrong. Even for me its getting a bit too exciting. It does look like there will be a storm - but the intensity and path are still to be defined. Worst case=damaging storm. Best case=gales and some localised flooding.

MegBusset Fri 25-Oct-13 18:56:12

I'm supposed to be going to Essex (Harlow) on Monday to take some (outdoor) photos. Is it likely to be horrid there?

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 18:57:06

Received a funny but caring email from a company that supplies flags and bunting. Hope they don't mind me reposting.
" The Met Office forecaste has warned residents in Cornwall, southern Devon and along the south coast to expect winds exceeding 80mph at times, starting early on Monday morning and continuing for up to 24 hours.

In other areas of the UK, winds may still be the strongest we’ve had in 26 years, so we strongly advise you to take down all your flags, banners, bunting or any other display products that are likely to catch the wind, or you might damage or even lose them all together, and please:
Please take care on Monday 28th October!"

So don't forget your bunting grin

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 18:58:17

Meg - if the current forecast doesnt change then a) it will be terribly rainy b)it will be hard to keep the camera still and c)depending on what you photograph you may be better of with a video as it sails away.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 18:58:47

Quint, let me catch up with your posts.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 19:00:05

You are fine heading there quint. Are you supposed to be travelling back on Monday? Bournemouth is in the firing line and I would be prepared to cancel travel plans on Monday.

LEMisafucker Fri 25-Oct-13 19:02:09

Im in Kent, by the sea - should I be worried?

BoiledEggandToastSoldiers Fri 25-Oct-13 19:04:48

Dorset here, surrounded by oaks...

captainbarnacle Fri 25-Oct-13 19:09:20

sad supposed to be going by hovercraft to take 3 small people to see Chris and Pui at 9am Monday! Have warned them that is unlikely to happen now sad

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 19:09:49

LEM - I would be prepared.

Of course the worst of the storm could track out through the channel. We just don't know yet. I don't want anyone going away with the impression that I'm saying that there will be a damaging storm on Monday. I'm not, I'm saying that the models are currently generally pointing that way.

condor ferries are cancelling services Sunday and Monday in anticipation.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 19:11:10

sad captainbarnacle.

There are going to be so many half term plans cancelled or disrupted.

I personally wouldnt cancel things yet, I'd wait until Sunday as I always veer on the side of forecasts can be wrong. But be prepared.

goodbyeyellowbrickroad Fri 25-Oct-13 19:14:09

My parents are due to travel to Heathrow from Hampshire to fly out to us on Tuesday. Does it look like flights will be delayed and will it be safe for them to drive to the airport?

Stay safe over there.

kiriwAnyFuckerwa Fri 25-Oct-13 19:14:30

ooh LEM we're neighbours smile
I'm taking the net off the trampoline, flipping it over and putting all the garden furniture on the mat. I'm bringing what I can inside and hoping the fence doesn't blow down on the car

quoteunquote Fri 25-Oct-13 19:15:01

there is this grin

and I get to play with my chainsaw.

but I did take down a load of scaffolding today, and have been strapping all the sites down.

CatAmongThePigeons Fri 25-Oct-13 19:15:24

I'm south Devon, the gloriously inaccurate BBC weather said it should miss us, but theres a tree out the back that is gradually dying. I hope it doesn't fall in the winds forecast, it'll be right over my bed.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 19:16:17

Anya. I'm a bit concerned for you with the gfs run. At current track you might be looking at even higher wind speeds (90mph????) I would stock up and hope it moves.

StillSlightlyCrumpled Fri 25-Oct-13 19:16:26

I can remember the storm all those years ago as a 14 year old watching our shed fly into next doors garden. I went to tell my Dad (middle of the night), he thought I was exaggerating! He soon ate his words grin.

I'm really not good with extreme weather conditions of any kind, thankfully have very easy to cancel plans for Monday.

Hope it doesn't come to so much for the sake of all those travelling / moving house etc on Monday.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 19:17:19

goodbye - if they are travelling on tuesday the storm will be gone and it will be any leftover disruption that they have to contend with.

what about the Cardiff/Bristol - London trains please? They get disrupted at the slightest hint of weather of any kind, so I'm presuming Monday wouldn't be a good day to travel from Bath to Surrey by train?

I am in north herts, should I dismantle the trampoline and put away all of dd's garden toys?

also dh is suppose to land at heathrow on Tuesday late morning, let's hope there won't be too much delays

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 19:18:33

I would like a chainsaw. Would beat my rusty old bow saw any day. Worried we would cut our legs off though - dh and I are a bit of a diy disaster!

MrsJohnDeere Fri 25-Oct-13 19:19:46

Dh needs to drive from London to the Midlands for Monday morning. He normally would go late on Sunday evening. Would this make sense or would he be better going earlier on Sunday? When do you think it will hit this part of the world?

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 19:20:35

Just to remind everyone - I'm only an amateur grin

if you need an accurate answer then check out the met office page. I don't want you hating me if I get something wrong, nor do I want you basing life or death situations on what I say!

QuintsHollow Fri 25-Oct-13 19:21:52

We have moved our reservation to another weekend.
Bournemouth for a long weekend just did not seem such a good idea. Not with travelling home on Monday.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 19:21:53

MrsjD. I would aim to complete travel by midnight on Sunday.
Bear in mind that Sunday in itself is going to be pretty blowy!

Babie - I would do that.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 19:22:41

aww Quints. Glad you could do that. I hope its not too disappointing.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 19:23:19

ok guys <sniffs armpit> I'm going for a bath. Updates later smile

Nailvarnishaholic Fri 25-Oct-13 19:26:18

OhYou, I have to travel Sunday and Monday. Will it be ok - tracelling Manchester-Leeds on Sunday and Sheffield-York on Monday by train?
I vaguely remember the 87 storm. I hope it's not like that!

SpookyTeacakes Fri 25-Oct-13 19:28:51

I have a febrile convulsion during the great storm of '87 and the ambulance broke down...

MrsJohnDeere Fri 25-Oct-13 19:37:22

Thank you flowers

Brittany Ferries has cancelled sailings on Sunday night to France and Spain out of Plymouth.

GloriaSmud Fri 25-Oct-13 19:42:54

(Still on holiday in a static caravan in Devon) Not surprisingly, this was the lead story on the local news at 6 30.

My brother is flying into East Midlands Airport late Sunday into Monday. I hope/think he's prepared for some disruption (thanks digerd for the tale of your bumpy Heathrow landing this morning!)

OYWWW - Lol at your e-mail. I'll be sure to take down my bunting when I get home tomorrow!

digerd Fri 25-Oct-13 19:47:54

MegB
I live not far away from Harlow. What time do you have to leave home?
I can report how it is on MN on Monday at 6am - that's if I have no power cut.

BlackberrySeason Fri 25-Oct-13 19:48:53

Have a visitor stating this weekend from foreign parts who was doing a bus your on Sunday - really hoping they can still go sad

digerd Fri 25-Oct-13 19:58:12

Gloria
The moral of the story was to have faith in the expertise of the pilots and not worry yourself sick like we didsmile.

My poor mum is flying to us from Spain tomorrow - she was hoping to be able to visit family by train on Monday. It's lovely and hot where she lives smile

I remember in '87 having to go out and collect the washing off of our crazily spinning dryer. And finding a pair of jeans that didn't belong to us.

Oh fook.

I have just started a new job (well actually its a training thingy)

Monday will be day 3.

My commute takes me across the hills and is tree lined all the way....

Am in the east midlands....sounds as though my journey could potentially be littered with fallen trees? ??

AnyaKnowIt Fri 25-Oct-13 20:11:45

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 19:16:17
Anya. I'm a bit concerned for you with the gfs run. At current track you might be looking at even higher wind speeds (90mph????) I would stock up and hope it moves.

shock

Twighlightsparkle Fri 25-Oct-13 20:14:23

I am hoping that the weather people err on the side of caution after they messed up in '87.

I suppose meteorology is more advanced now right enough.

The north of Scotland often get severe gales, not such a big deal is made!

youarewinning Fri 25-Oct-13 20:22:27

OYWWW Do you think a 10 minute travel down the M27 would be a good idea on Monday? DS wants to go to Beauliea to motor museum. He has SN and doesn't cope with change (suspected ASD) so if it really would be stooopid to consider it I'll cancel (rearrange) now to save a bigger meltdown on the actual day. grin

LostInWales Fri 25-Oct-13 20:22:58

<Battens down chickens/ducks/dogs and footballing children> glad I didn't see your TORRO update until we were back from football, the black scudding clouds were ominous enough without looking for tornadoes! I think tomorrow will be spent finally securing the side pass roof after promising myself I'd do it for months. (West Wales coast here) Thank goodness the only half term plans I had were to stay home and keep warm.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 20:23:01

interesting chart!

Twilight - Our trees are southern softies - not used to high winds. They come down much more easily. Our houses are not designed for severe gales. Our roads clog up if a motorbike falls over as the traffic density is so high. We just aint built for it!

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 20:25:26

youarewinning - if it were me having to make that decision I would cancel. You might be really angry at me if the storm skids south and misses the region, but if you have to make a firm decision today then cancelling is the safer option.
sorry in advance if I'm wrong.

MrsDeVere Fri 25-Oct-13 20:28:02

I am going to be in a static caravan on the suffolk coast on Monday.

Eeek

jalopy Fri 25-Oct-13 20:29:03

Kitten, that chart looks like embroidery instructions.

StillSlightlyCrumpled Fri 25-Oct-13 20:29:41

OYWWW you are an actual genius. I look at that chart and get white noise for my eyes!

Clutterbugsmum Fri 25-Oct-13 20:29:42

MrsDeVere we are going to a caravan to Torquay on Monday.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 20:33:11

Look at the top right of the chart. Where it says DVPLG HURCN FORCE.

confused

LisaMed Fri 25-Oct-13 20:33:49

OYWWW We are leaving Leeds @ 10.20 and arriving in Cardiff @ 14.30. As far as I can tell it will be okay - won't it? That was a rhetorical question. All the weatherpeople on tv are saying how unpredictable the chart is. It does look busy

It's just the icing on the cake of a rotten month.

And I read all your posts with interest. I think we are all grateful for a heads up, especially as it's looking so much stronger than normal.

youarewinning Fri 25-Oct-13 20:34:12

Id rather cancel if it's potentially that bad than end up being blown off the motorway into the Hamble grin Its ok because I'm thinking we can go tomorrow (party Sunday) and have housework and film day Monday - get the feeling blinkbox will love me grin

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 20:35:08

the chart is by NOAA - the ones who do the US hurricane forecasting. Doesnt mean they are right of course. Also doesnt mean its going to be a hurricane. Means the gusts look to be of hurricane strength.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 20:36:42

Lisa sad
I would play it by ear on the day. Tune into local radio and check out highways agency

MrsDeVere Fri 25-Oct-13 20:37:02

clutter we are travelling tomorrow so at least we have time to batten down the hatches by Monday shock

We have to go. Its the only chance we have to shut the van down for the winter.

Eeeek again.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 20:37:14

Also of course the local police force fb page and twitter accounts are very useful places to book mark now.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 20:37:42

youarewinning. Splendid plan all round!

HesterShaw Fri 25-Oct-13 20:39:00

Twilight, a lot of Scots make that assertion. Think of the difference in topography and tree cover and you do the math, as our American cousins say.

In far SW we frequently get gusts of 80mph plus, but the trees are all leaning over anyway. Trees in the south east stand straight up, and there are lots more cars on the road and more buildings to send guttering flying and so on. I also remember a few years ago seeing the supply ship come in from the Scillies and saw the crew kiss the ground when they got off grin. That was a force 11.

The Daily Mail, another well known source if meteorological wisdom, are telling us this will be the worst storm since '87. But I seem to remember '90 being pretty awful, with lots of deaths, as it struck in the daytime. That was when Gordon Kaye copped a billboard in the forehead.

PestoSpookissimos Fri 25-Oct-13 20:41:01

Oh god! DD2 is s'posed to be on an all day beginners course at the dry ski slope at Tunbridge Wells on Monday. I don't think I'll even manage the drive there by the sounds of things (am outskirts of Brighton) Bugger!!

Clutterbugsmum Fri 25-Oct-13 20:42:19

I know, I'm hoping as we are traveling latter in the day we should be over the worse.

drinkyourmilk Fri 25-Oct-13 20:44:07

PESTO is Brighton going to be hit badly?

digerd Fri 25-Oct-13 20:46:20

I have been searching for types of trees that are storm proof. It does depend on the type of soil they are in, their age, position etc. So not really sure about the many Oaks, Maples, Limes that line our dog walks.
If windy I like to walk protected by the trees and bushes, but now thinking of wearing a crash helmet for walking under an oak as got battered this morning rom the falling acorns or was it the squirrels that picked them and dropped them on the floor to crack them open?

The very old, tall Pine tree at the back is at risk and got a bashing last time we had a storm.

AllabouttheE Fri 25-Oct-13 20:49:09

OYBBK
there are huge trees behind my house in SE London. I've been moaning at the old dears for years to lop the tops.
The ground is soft, we've had lots of rain.

So which way will the wind blow across SE London? Just trying to figure out if the tree will land on my house or go sideways to a large garden grin

And if you say westerly or whatever, what does that actually mean. The tree is NW ish to my bedroom (I think)

PestoSpookissimos Fri 25-Oct-13 20:49:49

I hope not drinkyourmilk but we do always seem to bear the brunt of storms as they come swishing up off the English Channel <<nervous>>

AllabouttheE Fri 25-Oct-13 20:50:42

NE maybe according to my iPhone. Should have paid attention in Guides.

PestoSpookissimos Fri 25-Oct-13 20:50:50

My suggestion to everyone would be to make sure your insurance is fully up to date!

Iwantanelephant Fri 25-Oct-13 20:50:59

I am a bit worried now. DH isn't worried at all. Do we know exactly where the storm is going to hit and when? What about the animals? My cats will be terrified sad.

LetsFaceTheMusicAndDance Fri 25-Oct-13 20:51:29

I'm in Cardiff and our garden is windy anyway because of the lie of the land and the way the wind bounces off the roofs of the bungalows behind our house. The last time there was a big windy thing, the leader branch was blown out of the oak with a TPO in our back garden. It's still in full leafand overhangs DS3's bedroom so he'll be sleeping at the front of the house on Sunday night I think.

BoreOfWhabylon Fri 25-Oct-13 20:53:24

Kitten, What do your Maps of Mystery predict for South Glos, very very near R Severn, please?

I am taking up residence on this thread - safety in numbers. I will bring candles and wine.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 20:56:41

coming from the SW AllaboutE (so trees would fall NE) then veering W later (trees fall E)

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 20:57:56

Whabylon - hard to know at the moment. Exact track could either have you in the thick of it or missing the worst. Be prepared grin

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 20:58:39

should be ok E smile

dinner time!!!

SpookyTeacakes Fri 25-Oct-13 20:58:59

Glad I've got lots of candles I'm sure we will get a power cut...

BoreOfWhabylon Fri 25-Oct-13 20:59:28

Thanks Kitten - I shall stay here and drink wine grin

DanielHellHoundMcSpaniel Fri 25-Oct-13 20:59:50

I have a bloody great copper beech within striking distance of my house. I'm in trouble aren't I?

drinkyourmilk Fri 25-Oct-13 21:01:46

Thanks Pesto.
I shall get the camping stove out and air the extra duvets then. Sigh.

Perihelion Fri 25-Oct-13 21:04:12

Hopefully the Met Office will issue a Red Warning for wind if required. The first time they did this was for Hurricane Bawbag in 2011. This shut schools, suspended a lot of public transport and flights and the police advised people not to travel.
If I remember the red warning was only issued the night before. I think it being half term could potentially cause problems with people travelling because they have plans.......

tenementmonster Fri 25-Oct-13 21:20:39

hurricane bawbag?
grin
I missed that one!

alexw Fri 25-Oct-13 21:25:12

Eek. Am meant to be taking overnight ferry from Portsmouth to St Malo on Sunday night...what r the chances?.

magicscares Fri 25-Oct-13 21:29:18

I am meant to be travelling to the south coast for the weekend, driving home on Sunday. Do you think we are safe til Monday, or is it best to cancel?

SpookyTeacakes Fri 25-Oct-13 21:33:33

What time Sunday magic?

I think lots of ferries are being cancelled? I think if the storm doesn't hit is it'll be hitting the channel and France? I could be wrong...

Meglet Fri 25-Oct-13 21:38:36

We're meant to be going to our local huge soft play on monday morning. Knowing what the building is like (bit shabby) and the fact it's already a little leaky I'm half wondering if it will open.

Us too spooky. We always get cut off down here. Am popping out in the morning to get paraffin for our oil lamps and DH is in log duty bringing in wood for the stove.

Wind up radio and gas stove top kettle at the ready...

alex at the moment Brittany Ferries has just cancelled the ferries that do the Bay of Biscay run, x-channel seems to be ok. Shipping forecast says 'rough to high' though so that could change.

spiderlight Fri 25-Oct-13 21:46:32

We're in Cardiff but will be travelling to Poole tomorrow. Will we have a roof to come back to?

magicscares Fri 25-Oct-13 21:53:32

Spooky, we were hoping to make the most of the trip arrive Early tomorrow and drive home to Herts Sunday evening. We've paid for our accommodation Saturday night but I'm tempted to cancel and just stay home and get prepared. Would that be a massive overreaction?

Thesouthernwindisblowing Fri 25-Oct-13 21:54:26

Going to devon from london on Monday. Will this be doable?

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 22:03:28

Magic you'll be ok if you complete your journey Sunday.

Southernwind what time?

Thesouthernwindisblowing Fri 25-Oct-13 22:04:35

Hi. Leaving london about midday.

South Somerset here, DH has cleared garden and strengthened fences........................but not a lot he can do with re the fact that I'm 6 days overdue with dc3, I guess I get him to read up on "delivering your baby at home" and get camping lights/stove/clean towels at the ready grin

Mum2toomany Fri 25-Oct-13 22:06:40

Is it going to hit london? Which areas? West? East?

TheDoctrineOfAnyFucker Fri 25-Oct-13 22:08:43

Very pleased we're travelling back Sunday not Monday from Wales now!!

georgedawes Fri 25-Oct-13 22:12:33

friend is meant to be coming to us in N Derbyshire on Sun evening, is it likely to be bad? The wind is v strong here tonight and I want to cancel her if it is, don't want her to be caught in anything extreme.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 22:13:50

Are there any mners from Calderdale or Warrington lurking on the thread who had some more exciting weather than they expected today? Theres a thread in weather for you: here smile

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 22:14:28

At the moment N. Derbyshire isnt expected to be in the worst of it. This may change though!

oh goodness threeblondies!

A number of the documentaries made about the 87 storm include the story of a woman who was in labour and trying to get to hospital, they had to abandon the car and return home on foot to deliver the baby. Very dramatic!

I remember that storm well, we were living upcountry on top of a large hill in Surrey, I was 8 and had a 3 week old baby brother. We sat up in my mum and dad's bed looking out at the trees bending over double and listening to the deafening wail of the wind. I'll never forget that sound.

Am worried about DS's epilepsy. Bombing of atmospheric pressure is a well documented seizure risk. I'm going to remind myself of his emergency procedures, cpr etc tomorrow. I doubt the air ambulance could get to us in the height of the weather.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 22:17:03

mum2many - at the moment its impossible to say for certain. currently it does look pretty likely London will be hit. if it is, all of it will be.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 22:18:11

southernwind, you'll need to play it by ear I'm afraid. hopefully the worst will be through by the time you are due to set off so you will know what sort of disruption has been caused.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 22:19:24

starfish - I think the worst of it will be over in a 6 hour period (with the very worst being shorter than that).

Nat38 Fri 25-Oct-13 22:21:12

Sorry-have not read the whole thread but I`ve heard the gales are coming late afternoon -evening on Sunday 27th!!

edam Fri 25-Oct-13 22:23:20

ooh, this may be a hostage to fortune but I do love a good storm. With the wind whistling and crying... (as long as I'm toasty warm inside and no trees fall down).

The 1988 (?) hurricane, the one Michael Fish said woudn't happen, was quite bizarre. Was in student digs and was woken by the bedroom window being torn open. My room-mate and I spent what seemed like hours fighting the wind to get the window shut again before the glass shattered.

Then we realised the door had slammed shut - the one with the broken handle that we now couldn't open. And having woken up in the middle of the night, we both really needed to pee. grin Have never worked a pair of tweezers so assiduously.

Had no idea that it had been an actual hurricane until the next morning. Our landlady had the radio on, gleefully reporting every new item of disaster on the news. Then we left the house to get a bus to university and were astonished at the devastation right on our doorstep. We were clambering over trees that had come down right across the road. The idea that buses might be running had been stupidly optimistic.

Thanks OYWWW (I keep wanting to type OYBBK).

Wasn't the 87 storm a 2hr job? Or is that something the docu's have got wrong? I remember the devastation. All those trees...

We have barely any trees down here in Cornwall so at least that's one less thing to worry about. We had loads of sea spray on the windows overnight when it was windy last weekend so I expect plenty more of that on Sunday night.

LightasaBreeze Fri 25-Oct-13 22:23:28

We were meant to be towing our caravan home from South coast on Monday morning, coming home on Sunday now, still be windy though.

Nat38 Fri 25-Oct-13 22:23:39

StarfishOrange hope everything is ok for your son!!

scripsi Fri 25-Oct-13 22:24:39

We have some very windy weather here already in Herts. I am hoping the weather will miss us (I shall be cycling around on Monday).

Thank you Nat. His epilepsy is pretty well controlled but when it happens it's dramatic because he stops breathing. A minute can be a very long time with a blue child.

Epilepsy is a funny thing. Low pressure and full moons seem to be triggers for lots of people. Thankfully the full moon was last weekend!

Be careful on that bike scrip

georgedawes Fri 25-Oct-13 22:29:24

thanks! It's very windy here tonight hoping it calms down

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 22:31:03

s'alright I'm still really OYBBK - I didnt even make the short list!

the 87 storm had about 4 hours of 80mph gusts being recorded in the SE as far as I know.

Nat - those are the pre storm gales - from the low pressure to the north of the UK.

magicscares Fri 25-Oct-13 22:33:01

Thank you OYWWW thanks

skyeskyeskye Fri 25-Oct-13 22:35:31

I remember the January storm of 1990 and I got stranded in Exeter as the trains stopped running. I got the train home the following morning and all i could see was flood water and fallen down trees.

I am supposed to be driving from Devon to Cornwall on Monday morning for a holiday ...

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 22:36:25

latest eCMWF has the storm slap over the middle of the uk at midday - so slower than GFS. So clearly the timing is still up in the air (so to speak). Still looks nasty.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 22:36:58

you are welcome magic smile

PseudoBadger Fri 25-Oct-13 22:41:07

We've got a 9am appointment to register DD's birth on Monday. We're on the outskirts of N London, I wonder whether we'll end up driving or walking there...

RevoltInParadise Fri 25-Oct-13 22:51:51

Please can you give us a landmark on that aptly called crochet pattern you posted earlier? I can see the hurricane force but have no idea where that actually is!thanks!

Thesouthernwindisblowing Fri 25-Oct-13 22:52:49

Thanks, OYWWW!

ZombieMonkeyButler Fri 25-Oct-13 22:53:37

DH & all 3 DCs are in a caravan in East Devon until Tuesday. I hope the roof doesn't get blown off! sad

It's a static so unlikely to actually blow over I would think? <hopeful>

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 22:57:30

its just along the south coast of the UK Revolt.

Zombiemonkey - They should be ok smile. They should keep an eye on the met office warnings though.

If it was me zombie I'd be booking them a nearby travelodge for sun night if the forecast looks nasty.

youarewinning Fri 25-Oct-13 23:01:32

Ok bit worried - looking at actual wind speeds over uk on a map I saw it shows worst area is over Hampshire. Please tell me that isn't where the hurricane bit on the (crochet pattern - that was a brill post!!!!!) map was?.

classifiedinformation Fri 25-Oct-13 23:03:23

Going to Devon (from Oxfordshire) tomorrow until Wed to see DP's family. I'm getting rather worried about it. I don't want to cancel as DP and DS are really looking forward to it.

Not sure what to do!

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 23:04:23

Well, the hurricane strength gusts could reach anywhere along the south really (or indeed miss and wallop poor france instead) or perhaps go a little further north.

I guess it does seem pretty likely now that a storm will form. But exactly where and when will it go? Thats the million pound question!

Nat38 Fri 25-Oct-13 23:04:24

StarfishOrange I sort of know how dangerase epilepsy can be.
My MIL had epilepsy & ex best friend has epilepsy-different sorts!!
So know the basics!!
Be prepared is all I can advice!!

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 23:06:17

Classified. As long as you havent got cast iron plans to travel Sunday or Monday then I wouldnt hesitate in going. You might have some disruption in Devon, or it might be in Oxfordshire, or it might not happen at all. However, I would get everything put away in the garden and put the neighbours on standby to notify you of any issues just in case.

TeamANYFUCKER Fri 25-Oct-13 23:10:21

Oh shit. We're in Hastings. Badly effected by '87.

And now living with a rickity 60ft ash tree only 30ft from the house...

youarewinning Fri 25-Oct-13 23:14:14

Oh starfish - hope ur DS will be ok. It's shocking how much the weather can affect epilepsy. I have a student who gets really affected by low pressure. Do you have emergency meds for him in case?

BlackeyedSusan Fri 25-Oct-13 23:15:40

i am keeping my fingers crossed that the trees in the garden will be fine. there are several very large trees. I am rather fond of them.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 23:16:11

latest gfs out.

it does the opposite of backing down the storm strength. And unfortunately hits during monday morning daylight hours.

Just hope it is over egging things.

TeamANYFUCKER Fri 25-Oct-13 23:24:09

Eeek!

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 23:25:56

Exactly.

Anyhoo. Am off to bed. Be back with you tomorrow fellow storm watchers. Sleep well!

HesterShaw Fri 25-Oct-13 23:26:20

Oh my God, it's the Perfect Storm!!! <American accent>

BlackeyedSusan Fri 25-Oct-13 23:27:06

oh nice. [sarcastic]

which is the most likely path now. laast time you posted the storrn track it had moved slightly north and we went amber. (sometime today I think)

HesterShaw Fri 25-Oct-13 23:28:24

Seriously, though this might be scarily badass. Am definitely going to take boat precautions.

DIddled Fri 25-Oct-13 23:28:34

We are in NW with a partial roof- arrrrrrrggggh

Moodykat Fri 25-Oct-13 23:30:08

OYWWW - I love your weather threads! Have been watching this one with a mixture of fear and excitement. Sleep well and I look forwards to reading more tomorrow. (After I've cleared away the garden toys!)

Exciting. Will get the camping gear out tomorrow. Will be lurking on this thread all weekend I expect!

HesterShaw Fri 25-Oct-13 23:37:39

If anyone wants to see anything very colourful have a look at this. In particular the swell forecast for tomorrow just west of Ireland. I know quite a lot about the sea and surf, and I can't remember seeing a swell forecast that dramatic on that site shock. If anyone is on the south coast at sea level, then it might be an idea to take flood precautions. I think there might be bit of a storm surge up the Channel. The tide isn't massive at the moment, thank goodness. The initial system which gets to Ireland isn't the one which is going to hit on Monday, but it sucks up a secondary low from Biscay, which is the one which needs watching.

Happy to be corrected on this. Would be very happy.

MaryZombie Fri 25-Oct-13 23:38:43

Hi Kitten,

is this going to get across to Dublin do you think? dh is worried about the Marathon on Monday morning being rained off/blown out.

My parents were to come back from Hollyhead today, but the fast ferry was cancelled due to bad weather and heavy seas. So it's started already.

RevoltInParadise Fri 25-Oct-13 23:41:29

Um Hester, does that say 48 ft on Saturday?? shock

MaryZombie Fri 25-Oct-13 23:42:23

Wow, Hester, that's impressive.

HesterShaw Fri 25-Oct-13 23:42:46

Yes but that's wave height at sea. Doesn't mean we've got 48 ft waves breaking on our beaches. We'd be royally fucked grin

RevoltInParadise Fri 25-Oct-13 23:43:04

Also Sunday 9 am looks a little scary....

Mil is in Wales in the south. Should we warn her?

HesterShaw Fri 25-Oct-13 23:43:23

Um, MaryZed, you're in Ireland aren't you? <casual> Which part?

MaryZombie Fri 25-Oct-13 23:44:42

It's ok. I'm East Coast. And 20 miles inland. And on top of a hill.

I'll be ok.

West Cork might be under water a bit.

RevoltInParadise Fri 25-Oct-13 23:45:03

Xpost. Yeah I realise it was out to sea but I wondered what the pull back (?) from that would be?

And yes 48 ft on the beach would be royally fucked!!

Talisin Fri 25-Oct-13 23:46:20

Looks like the Eye of Sauron is coming for Ireland, according to that magicseaweed site!

HesterShaw Fri 25-Oct-13 23:55:31

Ah that's ok then.

I have a friend in Baltimore, Cork, with a charter boat. I imagine they'll be taking precautions.

Revolt, apparently it relates to wave period. If it's long period swell, then the waves will be bigger when they get to land, because the waves have more energy. If the wave period is short, then massive waves at sea are smaller when they get to land. A wave period of about 10 seconds generally equates to the same sized waves hitting the shore as they are out at sea. This is why we can get really good surf when there is absolutely no wind here, because the waves have been generated by storms hundreds or even thousands of miles out in the Atlantic. Swell which is generated closer to land creates waves which are chaotic and disorganised, but essentially contain less energy. This secondary depression we are due on Monday has only created waves fairly close to shore and also on the continental shelf. However the waves heading for the west coast of Ireland tomorrow should be rather impressive. I imagine the cliffs of Moher will be a storm watcher's paradise, and also Ireland has a shorter continental shelf than we do (which is why it has such great and fucking freezing surf). Britain's continental shelf extends out 300 miles or so.

And now I'm starting to confuse myself smile. I am basically taking dictation from OceanographerHusband.

PS wave period is the amount of time between one wave crest and the next.

ChippingInNeedsANYFUCKER Sat 26-Oct-13 00:20:49

flowers

OYWWW - You are a star!! I wouldn't even know this storm was brewing if it wasn't for you Yes, I should probably watch the news like a grown up, but I don't!! I look at all of that and it means nothing, nada, zilch confused

Garden furniture brought inside, light pot plants re-located, rum water in smile Might have to buy a Hudle or something tomorrow though, the laptop wont work without mains anymore sad I'd have bought something already if I could make my bloody mind up what to buy!!

OYWWW these threads are brilliant. I posted a lot on the snow threads at the beginning of this year, and I don't think you got it wrong once for my part of the world!!!!! smile

Following with interest.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 07:09:43

Morning all. All models show the storm. GFS and ECMWF show it as a mature storm that is not still deepening with the worst hitting most of the southern uk over daylight hours. met office have it still deepening as it hits us and have it zipping through faster. The worst is along the southern coast and into the channel (incl. Channel Islands) All show severe gales.

SpookyTeacakes Sat 26-Oct-13 07:17:39

So what's best case scenario looking like now? I prefer daylight hours as at least we won't wake up to no electric!

We had a tornado here a few years back and the insurance company didn't believe anyone until they came out and looked and saw the path of damage!

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 07:42:08

Spooky, would be interested in hearing more about the tornado smile

It is better if it goes through at night. Fewer people out and about.
Best case I think for mainland Britain is the UKMO solution. The 70mph+ gales mostly confined to southern coastal counties. Slightly concerned about the possible squeeze of isobars around the Cheshire area as the low exits. Keep an eye on forecasts there! UKMO solution would mean that southern areas away from those coastal counties could have gusts in the 60-70mph region which isn't great but not worst case.

digerd Sat 26-Oct-13 07:47:20

Perihelion
Was Hurricane Bawbag 2011 on a Monday night?

Team
You could be lucky with the ash tree as they have very long roots and flexible branches. We get lots of saplings and have to get them at 4 " high otherwise the roots are already too long and firmly embedded in the ground. Also on the list of the lesser vulnerable to stormssmile

We had no wind last night in S. Herts, that I heard, and still none this morning. Despite the clouds racing at speed high in the sky.

CalmaLlamaDown Sat 26-Oct-13 07:51:54

OYWWW - we were planning to get the train from cornwall to paddington on Monday morning (leaving at 9am). Do you think there will be disruptions? I guess we will know more by then..

kitten should I drive London - Leeds Sunday avo instead of Monday morning as planned?

Monday will have to go Leeds - Durham

idobelieveinfairies Sat 26-Oct-13 07:57:21

I can't find much on what Jersey (Channel Islands) can expect storm wise.

I guess we are first to see it as it's coming from the south upwards isn't it?

SpookyTeacakes Sat 26-Oct-13 08:05:49

I can't remember what the weather was surrounding it but I will ask my dad tomorrow. He definitely remembers as it blew all his pheasants away gringrin

TiredDog Sat 26-Oct-13 08:09:41

Thank you OYWWW. I will tidy garden, find torches, batteries, matches and candles today. I will also shop and not hire the carpet cleaner (that needs electricity) for Monday.

Moodykat Sat 26-Oct-13 08:09:42

Blowing away pheasants Spooky?! Please don't tell me that, DH would have a breakdown if that happened!

curlew Sat 26-Oct-13 08:10:31

My ds is asking, (with rather more smarmy charm and puppy dog eyes than is strictly necessary), if anyone can tell him about the weather in Whitstable tomorrow at 2.00?

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 08:19:44

Not really Ibelieve, it's coming from the sw. Channel Islands could get it severely I'm afraid. Be prepared for storm force winds.

Calma I can't say for definite but yes disruptions are possible.

Girls that would be a better safe travelling choice to make (though I do quite like to be at home looking after my property in bad weather)

Just another reminder though that weather forecasting is my hobby, I'm not a professional meteorologist. Nor am I an expert on transport disruption or horticulturalist. All I can tell you is the choices I would make. What you choose to do and your own safety is down to your own personal responsibility.

Disclaimer over smile

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 08:22:05

Curlew, after a showery morning it looks rather pleasant if rather windy!

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 08:30:36

Waiting for the updated warnings from the met office here

Whatever I may say remember that they are the professionals!

LtAllHallowsEve Sat 26-Oct-13 08:33:51

Ahem. This is all my fault <<hangs head>>

In 1987 I was camping with a group of school friends. All of us had told our parents we were staying at each others houses. There were about 10 of us in 3 tents. We lost all 3 tents, a tree came crashing down almost on top of a friend (did smack his face up a bit) and with the 'wisdom' of youth we decided that we couldn't go home to face the music, so went to a nearby building site and settled in a half built house - which promptly lost its roof. We ended up walking the streets until about 8am, then went home. My mum still thinks I came home early because me & friend fell out.

On Monday I'm going.....camping.

I've already told DH that there is no way I am staying in a tent and he has agreed (reluctantly) to spend Monday at our caravan before moving to the campsite Tuesday. I'm not convinced a caravan is going to be any better.

I haven't been camping since 2006 - a disastrous trip when we lost 14 month DD under the side of the tent and she got 150 yards up the field before we noticed. I said I'd never camp again...

curlew Sat 26-Oct-13 08:34:18

Ds says thank you- wind is fine, if it's in the right direction it helps with corners!

Absolutely no concern for the trail of potential destruction sweeping the country......

thanks winning yes we have emergency meds. They go everywhere with us!

Hester that's so interesting what you say about the sea and wave patterns. After reading your posts I've just stood at the bedroom window and watched the breakers coming in on the shore. It's not what I expected at all.

Typically, before a period of very windy weather, we get lots of chop and lots of sideways water movement and froth, but this morning it looks like pretty much a1 perfect surf conditions. Very clean, quite big, I'd say 5ft, which for the south coast of Cornwall is pretty big.

We are about 50 yards from the sea, directly south facing out into the Channel, but raised up about 12 metres above sea level. Might sandbag the back door as the driving rain leaks in on an averagely rainy windy day.

Looking forward to your updates OYWWW, I find weather so fascinating and your interpretations of what's happening are brilliant.

kitten I am taking the dc.
Dh & lodger will b at home with the dog to do hatch battening

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 08:40:31

Is he racing curlew?

Bloody hell Eve! That's an experience and a half.
I'm curious as to why you wish to repeat it? grin

LtAllHallowsEve Sat 26-Oct-13 08:40:32

Sorry OYBBK, I had both pages open and meant to post on the other 'storm' one. I didn't mean to disrupt the 'proper' weather thread with my ramblings blush

You are doing a great job smile

LtAllHallowsEve Sat 26-Oct-13 08:41:29

Oh I don't want to repeat it Kitten - really I don't, but DH is a sadist grin

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 08:42:31

Splendid plan girls smile

Thanks starfish!

LetsFaceTheMusicAndDance Sat 26-Oct-13 08:43:42

Step AWAY from the camping gear.

That's it, genttly does it.

A bit further.

Or....we could all club together and get you last minute flights somewhere warm. Disaster aveted. grin

Thank you, as always, OYWWW. You deserve a rosette and a crown for helping MNetters with their weather-related decisions. flowers

I was in two minds about travelling Malvern-Brighton on Monday, or waiting until Tuesday. So I have consulted the oracle (the baddest kitten) and decided to delay.

I am going to hunker down in front of a log burner and sew instead.

Stay safe everyone

Helenagrace Sat 26-Oct-13 08:49:47

Thanks as ever OYWWW!

Think I need to speak to my SIL as my two nieces are due to travel alone (they are 14 & 12) from their home in Exeter to Southampton where we'll pick them up on Sunday afternoon. Not sure that's such a good idea!

Just shared my sandbag plan with DH. He thinks I'm mad. He thinks we aren't going to get much rain and the wind won't be 'big'. I had no idea he was a meteorologist...!

Another log burner and sewer here norks, by paraffin lamp if needs be smile

How are we looking down here OYBK? should I be clearing the garden before it all goes flying again? (Emsworth)

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 08:56:39

Helena, if they aren't travelling Monday they will be ok smile

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 08:59:13

Eve, not a problem smile . If more people ask what storm on that thread can you point the way here please? Save splaining in two places.

Tits a tidy up might be a good idea grin

FrogsGoWhat Sat 26-Oct-13 09:07:02

I'm bricking it. DC2 is overdue and I'm having to go into hospital to have her rather than the home birth I had planned for - what's the betting it will be during the worst bit of the storm?

What's more I hate storms and get flashbacks as I was caught up in the 1990 storm at my school which killed one classmate and badly injured others... Fun sad

ChasedByZombees Sat 26-Oct-13 09:12:33

Oh this storm does look badass. I'm in Oxfordshire so it won't be as bad as the coastal areas (I think) but my parents are on holiday for the weekend in IOW. confused I'm trying to get in touch to find out when they're due back.

Also wanted to say thanks to OYWWW. These threads and info are amazing and I've learnt a huge amount here. What a hobby to have! Thank you!

Ok

I know the models are probably still variable.

But could you summarise what parts of the UK are likely to be hit (or not if that's easier)

Feeling a bit lost.

42notTrendy Sat 26-Oct-13 09:19:37

Ditto. I always read with avid interest and read out loud to DH who has utmost respect for you OYWWW!

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 09:20:46

At the moment I would say
channel islands - exceptionally stormy (sorry down there)
southern coastal areas look especially bad. Severe gales - storm force winds.
Gales - severe gales possible from the midlands down. Later on Cheshire could also see some severe gales for a time.
Flooding is possible from northern England down.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 09:21:27

sad Frogs.

Bloody hell I've just checked out the surf forecast & it's saying 22 foot for Monday - for a south coast spot that is usually about 2 foot. I've never seen 22 foot forecast there.

kasbah72 Sat 26-Oct-13 09:23:23

My parents are also on the Isle of Wight this week. Any predictions for what they will face? Thank you
Fantastic thread!

Thankyou.

I'm in the East Mids...so will use this as motivation to tidy my back garden.

Are we really having to take the nets off trampolines confused

QuintsHollow Sat 26-Oct-13 09:27:20

I am trying to make sense of the met office website, 80mph seems pretty fast to me, and the Beaufort scale suggest it will be I hurricane territory? The amber warning is now extended to London. Putting my garden furniture under the trampoline, moved small pots to shelter.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 09:27:41

Edwinia - maybe not today, but get ready to take them off tomorrow.

kasbah - looks pretty stormy. Which side of the island are they on? mkes a massive difference!

QuintsHollow Sat 26-Oct-13 09:29:31

Oh and thank you for the tread ohyouwww

Blinkin' 'eck jimjams. Must check it out. I'm on the same bit of coast as you I think, just over the river grin

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 09:35:13

Keep an eye on this lovely satellite animation here as we go through today and tomorrow.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 09:37:00

Quints - some of the gusts could reach hurricane force.

Met office update will be around 11:30 I think. I have to go out soon so can someone else post to it when it updates please. link is here

ChasedByZombees Sat 26-Oct-13 09:37:53

Oh dear, mum and dad are due to get a ferry home from IOW on Monday, eek! It's one of those package things where the hotel and ferry are included so they feel at the mercy of whatever the company decide to do. Am a leeeeeetle bit worried. Dad just said "they never cancel a ferry". Hmm.

I'm off out in a moment too to get paraffin for lamps, batteries etc etc and sort the garden out but when I next pop into the thread if no-one's posted the met update already I'll do it x

youarewinning Sat 26-Oct-13 09:42:53

Good morning all grin

Well a chat with my DS and Mondays day out plans averted! I have asked if he wants to go today as outside things won't be possible and travel may be dangerous - he's excited and printing out a map as we speak! and panicking about the weather too!

Then told him we'd have to move food shop to tomorrow morning before our party - but will get some nice food for a day in.

Even better it said to ring about disabled consessions to museum so I just did and I'm free as his carer so we are going to have lunch there too - nice exciting day out where I can ignore housework! until the storms hit and I'm stuck inside when I have no excuse not to tidy whilst he goes round putting everything back where he thinks it should/ wants it to be grin

Bowlersarm Sat 26-Oct-13 09:44:10

We are currently abroad on a weeks holiday. Guess when we are due to land back in South East England. Early hours of Monday morning. Hmmmm. Anyone have any ideas what could happen? Will flights be cancelled?

youarewinning Sat 26-Oct-13 09:44:56

AHHHHHHH to 22 foot waves/swell.

Please don't give away location if you don't want but could you confirm or deny it's Hampshire? PM me if you'd rather.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 09:45:30

zombees. My memory says your Dad is somewhat wrong there!

brilliant plan winning.

Well, I ought to get going. The shopping aint going to do itself!

Double AHHHH to 22ft waves. I'm in East Dorset, please say you don't live near me.

No offence, I'm sure you're lovely. thanks

Oh man, we're on a ferry back from the Isle of Wight on Monday. We're fucked aren't we? sad

saintlyjimjams 22 feet?! shock Where are you?

I'm on the Sussex coast and it's already pretty gusty here. DH is taking 4yo DD to the bonfire parade and fireworks tonight so I hope it doesn't get much windier until tomorrow!

youarewinning Sat 26-Oct-13 09:51:06

Ferry might be OK - hovercraft will be cancelled. It all depends on how the weather is travelling up the solent and the affect on the harbours. Portsmouth harbour is quite well protected itself if you can get across the solent.

We've got 24ft forecast for Monday in south east Cornwall. It's already pretty big out there but I have NEVER seen 24ft so I will be up at the top of the house watching with amazement I expect.

For context, it's normally 2 to 4 ft.

Ferry to Southampton. The journey over was the worst I've ever had. I actually wished for death, I felt so bad. And my super duper sea sickness tablets are at home in Surrey where they'll doubtless be scattered all over the lawn with the rest of the house contents by the time we get back!

youarewinning Sat 26-Oct-13 09:53:31

Ah ha! wondered when you mentioned rivers if you were talking Langstone Harbour/ Chichester way! and thought West Sussex! I went camping in Rye 2 years ago when there was wind and rain - just a normal summers bad weather day and went to Hastings for the day - not sure why now grin

West Witterings and Selsey are renound for being hit hard and Selsey has seen it's fair share of tornados over the years.

That's the forecast for Bantham (south Devon) puddle.

I postponed a surf session for ds1 today because it was looking quite messy & big at 8 foot. But 22 foot!!!! I won't be driving out there to take a look.

Starfish - I think we get the same sort of swell usually. We have a roof terrace overlooking the sea but I don't think I'll be up there (I'm a bit worried about our roof)

youarewinning Sat 26-Oct-13 09:57:34

Southampton not so well protected and the journey is more westerly (if my geography is correct) as IOW is a difficult position to map from! It may have an affect on your journey. I'm fairly near Southampton so if your delayed and get back later than planned I can meet you at port with a sandwiches to keep to going til you get to Surry if you can stomach them after the crossing grin

SpookyTeacakes Sat 26-Oct-13 09:58:06

I'm near Chichester smile well it's my nearest city anyway

Thanks saintly! How do you find out how high the swell is going to be? I can't see it on the forecasts I've looked at.

Ugh Gwen that sounds grim!

Right I really must go out now and get on with things. See y'all later.

Spooky I'm near Littlehampton!

Ditto to roof worries jimjams. We have some loose slate and two distinctly dodgy dormers with wooden cladding that's already coming away. If the lot gets ripped off it may well be a good thing hmm.

Yep stay cosy, no roof terracing wink

ok, definitely off out!

SpookyTeacakes Sat 26-Oct-13 10:01:13

I'm off the beaten track the other side of Midhurst I expect to see a lot of fallen trees and power cuts possibly a flying cow grin

digerd Sat 26-Oct-13 10:03:12

Amazingly safe we were on the Harwich to Hamburg ferry in a force 12 gale < exept my vulnerability to sea sickness and forgot to take my pills as we had no warning>.
As I took a stroll at midnight on the deck to get some fresh air, I was horrified to see only an enormous wall of see as high as the sky at the side. and thought it would crash on deck. But NO, the next minute the wave had disappeared and sea looked flat. The large ferry just went with the flow smile .

middleeasternpromise Sat 26-Oct-13 10:03:20

Im due to fly out of Gatwick first thing Monday morning, sounds like we will be stuffed either way. To get there for the correct time will mean setting out just as storm predicted to be at its worst (wise? me thinks not) and if we survive that I imagine we would be grounded anyway for a few hours - aaarrrgghhh what to do !!

digerd Sat 26-Oct-13 10:04:02

sea

GnabGib Sat 26-Oct-13 10:04:39

Thank you so much OYWWW for all your advice smile I'm supposed to be driving to work from Brighton at 6.15am on Monday, 45 minute drive down lots of country roads. I'm starting to think a duvet day might be a better idea... Do you think the storm will still be going on then or will it be mostly overnight?

Puddle - have a look on magic seaweed. You need to know the name of your nearest surf beach. It gives you the wave period etc as well.

Eek at dormers! Our roof is flat, 100 years old but with turretty bits and i'm worried about falling masonary. :gibber:

LadyCelia Sat 26-Oct-13 10:07:04

Oh crikey, my mum's place is right on the beach in North Cornwall, & there are 20ft waves predicted for Sunday night. Feeling a bit worried now.

Thanks OYWWW for all the updates & advice, I have been following this thread avidly for the past couple of days !

Perihelion Sat 26-Oct-13 10:10:28

Digerd Hurricane Bawbag was Thursday 8th December 2011. There was another storm on Tuesday 3rd Jan 2012, which actually caused higher winds in Edinburgh ( 100mph gusts ). I seem to recall that a few days before Bawbag we had really strong winds too, with no weather warning.

Please everyone, if the police advise no travel, don't travel!

Mirage Sat 26-Oct-13 10:16:53

We are in the rural East Midlands and our power goes off for the slightest reason,so will be looking out the candles and torches.We are clearing the garden today and tomorrow.We are surrounded by elderly horse chestnut trees and I can almost guarantee the road will be blocked at some point.Our roof isn't great either.

My ponies live out,and I'm going to take their electric fence down in case a tree comes down and panics them.I don't want them tangled up in fencing.

On the plus side,Monday is my birthday and it looks like I'll have an unscheduled day off,I won't be able to work outside in a gale.

quoteunquote Sat 26-Oct-13 10:23:04
Meglet Sat 26-Oct-13 10:25:26

Memo to self; move bird table or lie it down before it gets blown over.....

shallweshop Sat 26-Oct-13 10:26:09

A bit of a dumb question but when we talk about 'coastal areas', are we talking purely about areas right next to the sea or is there a certain distance inland which is still defined as a coastal area?

Trying to bus across Southampton on Monday, with a 3yo and a newborn, is going to be a bad idea isn't it. sad

OYWWW, you managed to get a mention on facebook! You're famous! thlgrin

shewhowines Sat 26-Oct-13 10:41:26

I remember waiting hours for a ferry because of wind one December. Don't remember it being particularly bad wind.

HesterShaw Sat 26-Oct-13 10:51:09

No one is going to get 24 waves on the beach. You may get those on reefs, e.g pipeline in Hawaii, but you won't get waves that high on a beach break. It would take put a whole village.

HesterShaw Sat 26-Oct-13 10:53:52

Hurricane force gusts aren't hurricanes though. To be a hurricane it's got to be steady wind speed.

Magic seaweed has 13-20 foot surf, 22 foot swell at midday for bantham.

Whether it's that big or not that's a huge forecast for a south coast spot. It isn't predicting huge wind though - although I can't see the gusts on phone.

DanielHellHoundMcSpaniel Sat 26-Oct-13 11:00:48

Dh is out putting away stuff in the garden. He's moved the slide over and lashed it to the fence, best we can do really. We're sitting high looking over the Romney Marsh straight down to the channel 6-7 miles away. We're windy at the best of times and its quite gusty today already.

SnakeyMcBadass Sat 26-Oct-13 11:01:10

I have a dilemma. My weather station, which I purchased purposefully so that I could record awesome weather events, is mounted on my fence. I'm going to have to take it down, aren't I? sad

feelingdizzy Sat 26-Oct-13 11:02:08

I live on a small island of the west coast of Ireland, it's often very stormy here. Weather has just begun to change here, but it does that a lot ! Sky is a funny colour though. I have just been out tidying stuff up from the garden. As we have a lot of storms we have a storm box full of candles and stuff.
We shall see.

So I can justify screaming at my exH for not listening to me about the weather? He has taken the DDs to Torquay for a long weekend, coming back on Monday to Bristol.

I begged him not to take them but they have gone sad

digerd Sat 26-Oct-13 11:33:28

MsInga
YES! Men grrr. They never listen to our fears do theyangry]sad]
But we women are sometimes wrong - not often- and it is not 100% a certainty.
Very irresponsible of him.
Scream away at him for the frantic worry he caused you, especially with the official warning. He serves it.

There is still some hope of it missing us or not being so bad as anticipated.

.

digerd Sat 26-Oct-13 11:34:27

deserves

DameDeepRedBetty Sat 26-Oct-13 11:41:32

this is the link BadBadKitten, sorry WickedWickedWitch, wanted someone to repost after 11.30.

Not sure if it's been updated, can't see a time.

denialandanyfuckingpanic Sat 26-Oct-13 11:50:23

doesn't look updated yet.Can you imagine them all sat around going? we can't put the whole of the south under red, can we???

Still hasn't. Been updated I don't think... Refresh...refresh...

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 11:58:44

Just got back. no update from the met office yet.

BlackberrySeason Sat 26-Oct-13 11:59:07

Just been out and stocked up on food, matches etc etc - update please met office shock

mumofone25 Sat 26-Oct-13 11:59:08

The met office haven't updated yet! They mentioned updating the warnings Saturday morning, no sign as of yet!

If you click on the region you are interested in, it then tells you when it was issued. The London one is still the same as yesterday, not sure about any of the others!

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 11:59:55

eek! MrsMango. that's not good. <Dons invisibility suit>

BlackberrySeason Sat 26-Oct-13 12:03:03

Ours is still as yesterday.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 12:03:53

06Z GFS has updated. No change to earlier. Looks nasty across southern Britain.

I really want to see what the Met office are making of the latest model changes. In some ways the UKMO model was a slight downgrade in intensity for many of us but that doesnt tally with the GFS and I want to know what the experts are thinking!!!

InnitTogether Sat 26-Oct-13 12:04:33

updated now. looks more likely to be bad.

BoreOfWhabylon Sat 26-Oct-13 12:04:41

You deserve to be famous OYWWW. You should have your own weather channel!

So, I'm guessing it's pretty much out of the question that the whole storm will just fizzle out before it hits us?

ScaryHalloweenName Sat 26-Oct-13 12:06:29

I doubt the trains will be going any further south than Dawlish. It can get really bad there

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 12:08:55

The NAE model takes the storm force winds through France instead. Still huge huge uncertainty on the track!

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 12:10:57
OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 12:12:44

Look at the matrix - its stepped up a level in certainty.
If they become more certain then we are perhaps looking at a red warning being issued tomorrow.

QuintsHollow Sat 26-Oct-13 12:13:59

Is it yellow for rain and amber for wind?

FourAndDone Sat 26-Oct-13 12:19:09

Oh no! Just looked at the warnings, I'm in Derbyshire and thought we was yellow, but nope we're on amber warning shock

BoreOfWhabylon Sat 26-Oct-13 12:25:24

Amber wind here and from previous experience our power almost certain to go off (semi-rural area).

Off to Morrissons to panic-buy <wibble>

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 12:26:25

fouranddone - I'd say the uncertainty where you are is pretty high, but there is the potential for your area to be affected.

Quint - there's amber and yellow for wind depending on location. Yellow for rain.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 12:28:35

Bore - it is still possible that it doesnt deepen as much and follows the NAE route through France. However, scanning other weather boards it seems the met office are not going with the current NAE output. it was a pants model for last winters snow forecasting

Doyouthinktheysaurus Sat 26-Oct-13 12:35:31

I'm near Worthing.

It's already really windy. Been for a run down the seafront and it's a kite surfers paradise....not so much for runnersgrin

We have to drive the dses inland toward dartford tommorrow so hoping it's not too awful.

All looking a bit awful really!

cj1983 Sat 26-Oct-13 12:37:23

Wow this storm looks like it's going to be pretty bad!Hope everyone stays safe.OYWWW We are in east riding Yorkshire, is it looking likely to miss us?

FrightRider Sat 26-Oct-13 12:38:12

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Seabright Sat 26-Oct-13 12:39:56

I've blogged a bit about getting ready for the storm this morning.

But on the plus side, my washing's going to be dry in about an hour (so long as it doesn't rain again!)

Reastie Sat 26-Oct-13 12:40:33

marking place, good to see the weather genius predictor OP is here to tell us what to expect.

DH was talking earlier about where we keep our candles. Now I realise why blush <bit slow>

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 12:40:57

cj - you need to be aware that its possible that depending on the storm track you may get some severe gusts as the storm exits.

Casting my eyes over the models for the next week - unfortunately a similar event is showing for next weekend. (vaguely reminding me of Jan 1990)

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 12:42:43

seabright - don't forget - follow your local police force on twitter. Find that an excellent source of information on blocked roads.

RevoltInParadise Sat 26-Oct-13 12:47:01

Any chance you can let me know what looks like hitting us in herts?
Thinking if going out and taking down the trampoline!

babySophieRose Sat 26-Oct-13 12:47:18

According to Sky News A storm which could reach hurricane strengths of 80mph or more will definitely hit Britain on Monday, weather experts have warned.

cj1983 Sat 26-Oct-13 12:48:34

Ok thankyou for the warning.

Just hope dp listens and puts down the enormous slide that could come hurtling towards us thlhmm

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 12:50:20

I suppose if you note the word 'could' in that statement Sophie and substitute the word 'probably' for the word 'definitely' then it would be an accurate statement.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 12:51:16

Revolt. I'm fairly certain it would be a good idea to at least turn it upside down and weight it. If you can, wait until tomorrow, in case the NAE is right.

42notTrendy Sat 26-Oct-13 12:51:30

OYWWW, we are in Nottingham, which seems to be half amber half yellow. Does that mean we will be on the edge of gales and therefore less powerful?

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 12:52:17

42. at the moment, I would say that looks like a sensible conclusion. Don't underestimate the uncertainty though.

Annagramma Sat 26-Oct-13 12:53:06

Wow, the storm sounds pretty bad. My relatives mentioned the 1987 storm. What was it like (not around at the time)?

Thanks for reminding me to get stuff secured!

RevoltInParadise Sat 26-Oct-13 12:53:24

Thanks.

Reastie Sat 26-Oct-13 12:54:39

we're having our shed roof redone (it's slate tiles) and it's not been finished yet confused ....... oh dear.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 12:56:08

At the moment, there isnt much indication that it will be another 1987.

Seabright Sat 26-Oct-13 12:56:49

WickedWitch - excellent idea!

PestoSpookissimos Sat 26-Oct-13 12:58:47

Wonder whether the ski course will actually take place on Monday if the weather's that bad...? I'll ring them tomorrow.

CatAmongThePigeons Sat 26-Oct-13 13:04:29

Our chart has increased a bit on the Met Office, we're quite high but by the coast so it's always windy here. I hope it's not as bad as forecast.

DH has put everything in the garden away and has tucked the bins down the side.

My nan is due to drive back home Monday, think I'll make her stay until Tuesday to be safe.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 13:06:30

Latest eCMWF takes a swathe of 63KTS+ (73mph) (which is where the scale ends!) right through southern Britain.

aintnothinbutagstring Sat 26-Oct-13 13:07:57

It's very windy already here in Essex! I bought some candles yesterday for decoration, they may come in handy.

MagicLlama Sat 26-Oct-13 13:14:51

OYWWW I love your weather threads, but I usually lurk.

But I have to ask, Im in Staffordshire, our weather forecast says "stormy for a time" love it

Im supposed to be going to Wales Sun - Wed, and have arranged for a friend to throw food at the horses, and check they all alive. However if there are horrendous storms heading this way, they will need putting in the stable, and she cant do that, and im going to struggle to get back if something goes wrong and travel is all disrupted!

Do you reckon im best rearranging the whole trip?

I think I know the answer to this

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 13:17:06

I'll have to get back to you after I get back magicllama - can you put them in the stable tomorrow and then your friend let them out after shes checked fences later on Monday? If you were closer we'd do them for you!

Am off out again. Back later smile

misdee Sat 26-Oct-13 13:18:31

secured garden this morning, replaced the missing bolt on the plastic storing shed so now the roof is secure.

off to sainbos in a bit to buy milk, bread and loo roll.

Does anybody know what is expected in Devon/Cornwall? I have had a look at a couple of links but I don't really understand blush

I have a picnic bench, wooden bench and trampoline in the garden do I need to do anything to them? My garden is completely enclosed on all sides by quite high trees or fences and the house, will that help?

On and I have a plastic play house.

MagicLlama Sat 26-Oct-13 13:30:51

I would, but my big horse is a recent Beeston special, so im not 100% sure how she will be either a, being caught by a stranger, b, going into the stable and c, walking up the road, and cant ask friend risk life and limb walking a crazy rescue horse, when shes a novice, so biggie would have be in until Wednesday. It might work though, or I could maybe find a local horse sitter or something.

I love a good storm, but not when it disrupts plans.

Just to make it more fun we live in a woodland, so I suspect there will be trees down all over. sad

LostInWales Sat 26-Oct-13 13:31:28

Sent DH out with an extensive list for Tesco, charging everything up that needs charge and bookmarked all the interesting links on this thread. If we are on the South West coast of Wales will we be protected a bit by Ireland? I always imagine it there like a sort of wind break.

AllabouttheE Sat 26-Oct-13 13:31:58

I slept thru 87 hurricane age 11. Was good fun with kites day after. And we had no power for 3 weeks. (Rural childhood) caravan, greenhouse, shed - all travelled over 50 yards from their starting place.

I'm worried about trees. I have to train commute home from London Monday. Who said about likeliness of tree varieties coming down? Is that an official list?

Oh and Dartford bridge will most certainly get closed on Monday with those high winds. AVOID M25 at all costs!

ziggiestardust Sat 26-Oct-13 13:41:58

<strolls in>

I live on the Lizard Peninsula in Cornwall. Am I... Meant to be doing something about this? We're all wandering about in flipflops here still. Tis a tad blowy out there, though.

girliefriend Sat 26-Oct-13 13:44:52

Is Somerset likely to be badly hit? We normally are quite well protected by the hills either side of us.

<Looks nervously at tree outside living room window>

digerd Sat 26-Oct-13 13:53:15

Oh, it is getting very scary now as M25 not far from here but at the north end. DSis drives through the Dartford Tunnel when she travels north from kent.
Still just breezy gusts now and again in S. Herts but getting stronger at the back where the many pine trees are with an open field behind them and the wind blowing from behind them towards me.
My worst fear is a power cut < again so soon> and one that can't be repaired by the imergency insurancesad. 3 weeks no power in 1987shock

EndoplasmicReticulum Sat 26-Oct-13 13:56:54

To be honest, in 1987 nobody really knew it was coming (see Michael Fish "ha ha someone thought there was going to be a hurricane" comment).

I was on the IOW in 1987, slept through it, woke up to find no trees left standing. We got a day off school as all the roads were blocked with fallen trees. Many boats got smashed up.

We're in North Yorks now so shouldn't be too bad, although I'm going to put the guineas inside and secure the trampoline!

BlackeyedSusan Sat 26-Oct-13 13:58:48

I have sent the rubbish down to the bin so that ill weight it down a bit. I have had to chase it, or other peoples bins round the car park before now, even though the bins are in 3 sided binsheds.

I am worried that the tree willl fall on the garages and squish my car. sad I have worrried about this several times in the last 10 years and it has not come true yet.

ziggiestardust Sat 26-Oct-13 14:01:21

I have my bins kept in my car port which is under my house, should I be bringing these inside the house? Or weighing them down?

storynanny Sat 26-Oct-13 14:03:53

annagramma, I really hope its not as bad as the 1987 hurricane! We watched debris like shed roof, pond liners etc blow down the road like a strange parade. Our local park was closed for weeks due to fallen trees and there was an awful lot of structural damage in my area.
My children were young at the time and their school carried on as usual with 3 adults holding onto the doors to let them in.
Keeping my fingers crossed that it will less damaging.

Waves at ziggy and threedaughters smile

It is warm isn't it?

I've just popped into town for batteries, oil for the oil lamps and bringing in some extra wood for the stove. And some extra groceries and cat food.

Digging out the wired-in landline phone.

Have put away everything in the garden and moved plant pots to a sheltered spot. Our neighbours' deck is absolutely strewn with kids toys so I'm hoping they'll be back soon to put them away, otherwise I'll pop over and do it.

We always lose power here in very high winds. Overhead power lines. And we often get cut off as we're in a rural village right on the coast in between two valleys. We did last November in the big storms and floods. Only for a day, but still felt worth being prepared this year as last winter we just weren't and it was a bit nerve wracking at times.

ziggiestardust Sat 26-Oct-13 14:09:59

<waves at starfish>

Yes, we're not far from Culdrose actually, and other than the wind, it's actually a very dry, warm day!

Taking the DC to Truro to the cinema in a bit, and I'm stopping at the big Sainsburys on the way home to look at the toy sale and pick up a jumbo pack of tea lights and candles, matches, wine, chocolate and stuff for a fry up on Monday in case we can only use the gas stove top.

Went to sainsbo this morning very early to gather storm supplies. Batteries, cake, and chocolate.

Will charge up phone, and iPad, although without power the wifi will go, so no internet. Radio in kitchen will have new batteries, and dig out old corded phone.

Taken all toys etc and washing line into garage, bins etc.

Actually a bit scared. Very warm out and breezy.

lagoonhaze Sat 26-Oct-13 14:17:11

Waves at ziggy and fellow cornish crew. It is warm today!

ziggiestardust Sat 26-Oct-13 14:19:50

Oooooh lots of Cornish ladies about today!

Is this honestly something I should be taking seriously? Have day off on Monday, but was planning on a bit of shopping tbh. Barely even registered with the warnings on the news, any previous yellow or amber warnings haven't even come to half of what I thought they would in the past.

Well, I'm taking the view that if we're prepared it won't do any of us any harm. And then if it doesn't happen or isn't that serious then we can heave a sigh of relief.

Anyone know what the deal is with phone lines? Apparently DH said last power cut he plugged in a wired-in phone and that didn't work either?

We have no mobile signal in the village so this has always been a concern in case I need to call an ambulance for DS, or any other random emergency.

Wine. How exactly did I forget THAT? Toddles down to local shop...

Windyone Sat 26-Oct-13 14:26:23

It's often very windy where I live.

www.xcweather.co.uk

is good for wind speed. Everyone here uses it. I don't know how to make it a link on my phone.

magimedi Sat 26-Oct-13 14:34:52

www.xcweather.co.uk

Should work!

HesterShaw Sat 26-Oct-13 14:37:47

ziggie, I think you'll be fine as long as you don't live at sea level, by the mouth of a river, or you own an expensive boat you keep on the water.

lagoonhaze Sat 26-Oct-13 14:43:52

Ziggie Im getting prepared. Tinned baked beans and sausages etc here. Luckily we are campers so have portable stove, sleeping bags, rollmats etc.

If power goes off its likely that there will be a wait to get it back on.

We are making sure out hot water tank is full and heating on before storm hits so we have some reserves.

Right all large furniture has been moved to the most sheltered part of the garden and the wheelie bins have been taken off the driveway.

I am on the Devon/Cornwall border and the website Windyone linked to is saying that the early hours of Monday morning are expected to be the worst time, wind will possibly get up to 55mph.

Hester I've uploaded a couple of pictures to my profile of where I live. We're very close to the water (the Channel). What do you think? We're actually about 12 metres above the level of the beach and about 50 yards back from the sea wall, but others on the next beach down (village 2 in the pics) are at sea level.

Oh and Hester, that second pic is also the mouth of a river. Just wondering if I should pop down and make sure the elderly couple I know down there are prepared. In fact I'm going to go right now.

CbeebiesIsMyLife Sat 26-Oct-13 14:54:03

Ok well I'm in the south west on a coast. I've spent the morning arguing with dh about this storm, he things it's a hoohaa over nothing. I won my argument (Bette be safe than sorry, can we really afford to replace x,y and z?) and have cleared my garden of everything not nailed down, it's all now safely inside. I do however seem to be the only one in the street to have done this and my parents think I'm worrying over nothing, so if the storm doesn't hit I'll look very very stupid. You'd better be right! thlgrin

lagoonhaze Sat 26-Oct-13 14:57:14

Cbebbies Im a mile in land. Everyone things I batty.

I said to my DP well if Im right I'd just be safe and smug at home.

No he wont you'll be out helping everyone else out! Hes right I bloody will be too.

Thank you for your updates OYWWW. Just off outside to make sure everything's secure.

Runwayqueen Sat 26-Oct-13 15:07:11

I work in one of the SW's airports. It the hot topic of discussion amongst the staff and airlines at the moment. We should be getting our first Preliminary Gale warning about 2100 tonight

Bumbez Sat 26-Oct-13 15:10:18

I live on the Isle Of Wight, just in from tieing down the trampoline, taking down the flimsy plastic greenhouse and storing all the potted plants.

The back of our garden borders what used to be a cricket ground (housing estate now) with a row of pine trees, most of these blew over in the 87 hurricane. The 2 that remain are in mine and my next door neighbour's gardens and are very tall. Just to be on the safe side dd1 will sleep in the front with dd1.

Bumbez Sat 26-Oct-13 15:11:50

Thanks oywww smile

Antidote Sat 26-Oct-13 15:18:17

Marking place, checking stores, and looking out of window at the river Tamar and wondering if our cellar is going to get wet.

I'm also a bit anxious about the huge plane tree in the front garden and the neighbour's copper beech....

Oh anti my mum is on the Tamar too. Hope you stay dry.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 15:23:30

quickly popping in before a dash out again and then I'll get round to questions (tbh I'm keeping busy now until the next GFS update in an hour or so)

However - anyone in the south with a trampoline would be doing well to secure it smile (as dd has just said over my shoulder they are basically just massive kites)

runway - I and many others would be really grateful as to any updates you can bring about airports please.

casacastille Sat 26-Oct-13 15:28:22

Yes please to south of England airport updates, runway

DD is due to fly tomorrow afternoon, on her own...

HesterShaw Sat 26-Oct-13 15:31:23

Hi Starfish, I think you'll be alright. The worst looks like early Monday morning when there may be sustained wind of about 50mph from the south for a couple of hours, swinging round SW, and then WNW. Thank goodness this isn't coinciding with a spring tide like it did in October 2004, when south Cornwall got a proper battering.

No harm in checking on elderly neighbours though.

I guess if it does come to nothing, there'll be no damage done, whereas no one wants to go chasing a trampoline down the road at 4am in their pants! (DH had to do this last year when the wheelie bin went cartwheeling down the road grin )

morethanpotatoprints Sat 26-Oct-13 15:36:06

Hester

Sod the wheelie bin, they give you another if you call them grin

It was only ever a possibility anyway. I think some people get a bit carried away with the weather.
No pun intended grin

alcibiades Sat 26-Oct-13 15:38:52

I'm worried about the scaffolding over the house across the road. They've put on a temporary "roof" because they've taken all the roof tiles off. That temporary bit is corrugated metal sheeting, which I hope they've fixed securely. The fabric they've wrapped around the scaffolding makes enough noise as it is, without the noise of metal sheets flapping in the wind.

I've put pics on my profile.

WhirlyByrd Sat 26-Oct-13 15:39:05

I can't get the trampoline down, as its too rusty. I have taken the next down to try to stop it acting like a sail. We've taken in all equipment that we can and moved stuff in garden. DH thinks I am panicking over nothing. I am now looking at all the massive trees near our house and worrying!

kasbah72 Sat 26-Oct-13 15:40:33

Thanks OYWWW - Sorry, couldn't get hold of the parents until now but it seems they are on the East side. St Helens, Bembridge area. How is that looking please?
Thanks again for all your help

PeppermintScreams Sat 26-Oct-13 15:42:52

Oh no! The timing has changed since I last looked. We're going to be travelling from near Bognor Regis to London on Monday. Near Dartford tunnel! Caravan checkout latest at 10am. What's looking like a good time to travel?

Bunraku Sat 26-Oct-13 15:44:54

whirlybyrd roll the trampoline over So it's upside down

WhirlyByrd Sat 26-Oct-13 15:52:07

I can't - the net poles are built in on ours, so if I rolled it over the mat would be higher up!

digerd Sat 26-Oct-13 15:54:14

.S.Herts just north of London. It has rained this afternoon and got 2 degrees colder. 15atm

simpson Sat 26-Oct-13 15:59:32

Don't know what to do about my trampoline either.

No way I can take it down and nothing to tie it to (or the slide & playhouse).

Fences should be ok.

digerd Sat 26-Oct-13 16:00:53

Wind has disappearedhmm. All calm here now.

HesterShaw Sat 26-Oct-13 16:03:05

PS does everyone have a damn trampoline?

Herisson Sat 26-Oct-13 16:03:32

Is London going to be bad? Just asking as we live in a road with a lot of large trees and DH is away until Tuesday plus DD is of a rather nervous temperament... I want to be prepared. I have candles and a wind up radio and torch.

Herisson Sat 26-Oct-13 16:04:07

I don't have a trampoline, though, so that's one less thing to worry about!

FourAndDone Sat 26-Oct-13 16:06:41

Alcibiades- scaffolding looks very close!confused I hope it's secured properly blush

I have a long row of trees on industrial estste .trees run all down side of my house and Garden .This voukd get Intresting as well as carport with plastic panels on top that dtick out over edge .giant kite anyone

Stick

Wet and bit blowy in East East herts but nothing to write home about

Will worry more if planes stop taking off

Herisson Sat 26-Oct-13 16:12:33

It's horrid here, in SW London. V wet and blowy. The cover on our picnic table in the garden is already trying to take flight. I may just remove it so as not to have to rescue it from a tree or something later on.

Perihelion Sat 26-Oct-13 16:18:47

For trampolines, take the bouncy bed bit off, if the metal is too rusty......
And watch the Youtube Hurricane Bawbag trampoline clip grin

digerd Sat 26-Oct-13 16:18:49

Me too. The panels are fixed into metal strips. It is on the north side of house passageway then my 6 'fence then neighbour's long garage with bedroom extension attached.
He has fixed a solid wooden door to stop the wind getting through, but causes an explosive effect when strong winds collide with it and the only way for it to go is into my garden. Last time we had strong winds my lattice fence panel tops were ripped off. His flat roof garage was fineconfused

digerd Sat 26-Oct-13 16:22:10

My post was for the Humancatapult.
Still no wind in S. Herts but wet.

LostInWales Sat 26-Oct-13 16:26:05

V v wet on the West Wales coast now and according to the link ^^ up there somewhere the wind is 30-40 mph already. It's been very wet all week so I imagine we'll be seeing some flooding. I live right on a river but as we are at the bottom of a hill from every direction there are more problems with the water run off coming down from the fields and roads. Just going into the garden to secure the shed with DH. <wanders off muttering 'you'll be fine except at sea level or the mouth of a river' fine then, just great, I'll ignore the sea over there then and the river at the end of the garden>

Should NC to Confused of Cheshire. grin

OYWW you mentioned Cheshire earlier as being possibly involved at the end of the storm?So we're looking at it being later in the day, any approximate time? I'm in the south east of the county, not far from Buxton/Peak District.

My neighbour has got lots of stuff loose in her garden and is in denial about all this saying it's Met Office hysteria. I've asked her again this afternoon to put whatever she can in the garage but she's not having it.
If we expect to be on the tail end of this storm I will actually move her stuff into my garage if she refuses to.

captainbarnacle Sat 26-Oct-13 16:59:41

bumbez On IoW here too! Living above an empty pub, exposed on the Wild West coast. No properties between us and and ocean. Just me and 3 small boys! Have parked the car right against the back of the house, got batteries and torches and candles and milk. Written off our day on mainland on Monday!

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 17:03:31

Latest GFS - no change. (apart from getting a weirdy double centre as it exits.)

Cuckoocloud Sat 26-Oct-13 17:08:44

Alcibiades - the house two down from me has similar scaffolding and I've been looking nervously at it all day. It's got a corrugated metal roof which I really hope won't be flying around our neighbourhood on Sunday night. I s'pose these scaffolders know what they're doing.......?

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 17:09:34

NAE - now looks very similar to GFS.
All the big models have similar tracks at this point. Bringing severe gales into the midlands, through the south. Storm force winds for the CI. Timings vary a little and exact track varies (which makes a big difference to where exactly the worst stuff is)

And the models show more to come in a few days. sorry guys.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 17:11:38

hang on a few more minutes guys - I'm just going to glance around some weather boards to make sure I'm not missing anything really important and then I'll report back and try and tackle some questions.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 17:14:31

Going to start a new thread where specific travel disruptions can end up so they don't get lost.

Lexilicious Sat 26-Oct-13 17:14:36

Where do you stand if flying debris from your neighbours damages your house? Does your insurance company go after them? Do you still have to pay your own excess even if you kept asking them to secure their stuff? My neighbour has a back yard full of scrap wood and metal. Grrr.

it's bin collection here on Monday morning (also S Herts, digerd, S Watford actually). Wonder whether they will put bins back on our paths when emptied or leave them on the pavement in full wind pickup zone...

Meglet Sat 26-Oct-13 17:16:23

hester I was thinking that too grin. We don't have a trampoline.

In 1987 it was trees, this time it'll be trampoline chaos.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 17:17:42
Meglet Sat 26-Oct-13 17:19:32

lex I asked that on another thread just now. I know my insurance will deal with my stuff, but will it cover damage caused by a neighbours property?

LostInWales Sat 26-Oct-13 17:20:30

I was looking through all the charts and next weekend looks even worse for us, I imagine that is still subject to a lot of change at this point though?

Waves to all from grey and rainy Chichester.

I am somewhat concerned about the tree outside falling on my beloved campervan. And also that DS won't be able to go to his Nanna's on Monday, and he is so excited about it.

Have torch, candles, fully charged phone no help if the mast goes down . smile

eatyourveg Sat 26-Oct-13 17:25:03

I've just stuck our location into bbc weather and it seems the strongest winds are going to be 34mph, stuck in Winchester Oxford and Greenwich and they are all roughly the same.

Has the storm changed direction and southern England is to be spared?

TeamANYFUCKER Sat 26-Oct-13 17:30:59

Just been to Sainsburys. Plenty of bread, milk and wine left on the shelves, but you couldn't find a candle for love nor money!

Due to fly into Manchester very late on Sunday night, from Spain. Forecast is calm but wet from midnight-3am, someone has suggested the wind may blow us home early - what chance of that, Kitten?

digerd Sat 26-Oct-13 17:33:29

*lex and meglet*- it should do if they were negligent in knowing and not doing anything to prevent it. Just refusing to believe there was a risk is no excuse. But does depend on your insurers and your policy.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 17:35:38

To summarise the met office very very very approximately at the moment (and of course this may well change!!!)

South coast - 70-80mph (especially east of the IOW) perhaps more. Peak between 3am and 6am

Southern coastal counties 60-70mph. perhaps the odd spot seeing higher depending on topgraphy. Peak between 3am and 6am.

Central England gusting to 60mph. perhaps higher. peak around 6am.

East Anglia - gusting to 70mph peak 9am

Not so sure about a sting in the tail for Lincolnshire E Yorkshire as it exits. Not really seeing that on the met office site, but its still a possibility.

Bumbez Sat 26-Oct-13 17:36:58

captain waves, I'm in the East. Sounds like a good idea about your car, shame the pub is empty, must send Dh out to get wine. Do you have any friends you can descend on if it gets hairy?

digerd Sat 26-Oct-13 17:38:26

It did get really windy today in S.Herts, but then it rained and wind stopped. So to me the signs are so, but maybe just a lull before the storm - who knows atm?

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 17:39:05

Nicestsmile - I don't really know. The jet stream would be in a good position to speed up your flight, so possibly, it just depends on whether ATC allow a flight path to make the most of it (plus if the airports are starting to prepare for issues)

digerd Sat 26-Oct-13 17:40:13

The birds usually know things we don't but haven't heard them today, perhaps they have already flown to warmer climes?

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 17:41:24

digerd - the low that is forming is just a little low that hasnt really started yet and so hasnt any influence on our weather at this point. We are feeling the effects of the big low to the west of the UK. (which is sort of the mummy to the baby low thats going to be our storm)

Bumbez Sat 26-Oct-13 17:41:39

X post -East IOW oh bugger shock

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 17:42:34

eatyourveg - the bbc weather page isnt very good. Also you may have picked up on mean wind speeds rather than gusts. Try for 3am and see what it says.

Hmm hospital appointment may end up cancelled if peak is 9am as we have a high sided van

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 17:44:34

Lex - you arent responsible for your neighbours stuff. If you do get an issue def hand it over to your insurance. If you do get an issue remember that many many more people also will be and the insurance companies will be set up for a lot of claims coming in.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 17:45:48

Herdy - hang on until tomorrow. The met office arent picking up on the potential for cheshire and so perhaps I'm incorrect.

LostInWales Sat 26-Oct-13 17:48:13

Oooh thanks to whoever linked to XCWeather earlier, it's brilliant. Our strongest gust has been 52mph so far and we are in the 7/8 Beaufort scale region. I may never leave the computer watching all the different sites, I need one I can hand crank if the power goes out!

Thanks OYWWW will do.

Thanks, Kitten/Witch

Jet stream caused us a lot of turbulence on the way over last weekend so it owes us one!

DanielHellHoundMcSpaniel Sat 26-Oct-13 17:51:13

OYWWK does the South Coast include SE Kent? It might sound a divvy question but we often get different weather to southern central counties.

digerd Sat 26-Oct-13 17:59:52

Lex
As far as what the refuse collectors will do with the bins on Monday, I'd imagine they would do what they always do.
My neighbour has moaned to me that he has asked them to put the lid back on the boxes when it is raining but they never do.

YoureAllABunchOfBastards Sat 26-Oct-13 18:03:14

Well, just arrived in Cornwall this afternoon and it is pretty gusty already. Hoping the power holds out at least.

Methe Sat 26-Oct-13 18:13:37

I'm actually quite excited grin

LostInWales Sat 26-Oct-13 18:24:46

Me too Methe, it feels wrong but I have no where to go and lots of food (and camping equipment), bring it on so I can watch from inside. (and obviously keep everyone safe from danger too, be nice if everyone could enjoy it from safe inside).

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 18:27:04

Very much so McSpaniel.
I've noticed your climate is a bit different to the surrounds.

Methe Sat 26-Oct-13 18:27:57

I've got to leave for work at 7am on Monday and I'm still looking forward to it :-D

greenapples Sat 26-Oct-13 18:34:32

Guernsey's gonna have a fun ... We're forecast this Sunday night into Monday
"Wind, West Gale F8 soon increasing Severe gale F9 with gusts to 85mph by midnight veering southwest then south Storm F10 to severe storm F11 with gusts to F12 for a time. Decreasing Gale F8 to Severe Gale F9 and veering West by dawn becoming Southerly F7 to Gale F8 by afternoon with gusts to 60mph"
I have a bet on the tree comes down in the garden.

ChippingInNeedsANYFUCKER Sat 26-Oct-13 18:35:16

I really really want to go down to the coast tomorrow for a few days - I don't suppose work would be too chuffed at me taking a couple of days off at short notice though <sigh> I miss living on the coast - I want to see the sea!!

OYBBK I just wanted to say thank you for all the work you do keeping your weather threads updated. I don't have a TV and the met office site hadn't really highlighted this as being much of an issue for us here in the west mids but thanks to you I actually feel prepared even if it is as a 'just in case'. thanks

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 18:39:29

that makes me all shivery greenapples - I used to listen to the late night shipping forecast all tucked up in bed before I went to sleep (even as a student grin ), listening to the wind and imagining all those interesting sounding places and the poor sailors out at sea.

You are really welcome creeeak smile

Quick reminder to everyone - this still could downgrade into an ordinary autumn gale for most. We will have a much better feel tomorrow.

My dinner is calling!

What control said. Thanks Witchy person!

DH still hmm. But I don't care. Garden hopefully storm proofed. Bought a camping stove thing as we didn't have one although I was sure we did. Have torches and cake. What more do we need?

captainbarnacle Sat 26-Oct-13 18:43:37

IoW have been told by the council to NOT put out bins on Sunday night, but leave until Monday morning. 69mph predicted here at height at 10am Monday!

ElbowPrincess Sat 26-Oct-13 18:47:26

Ach, still nothing exciting for Scotland sad

We're in Ventnor at the moment. Would we be wise to get supplies in? We haven't as yet as we're supposed to be going home on Monday (ho ho) but I don't know whether to run out now and get stuff.

AChristmassyJerseySpud Sat 26-Oct-13 18:56:55

Do you know anything about Jersey?

Our met office couldn't even predict the heavy snow in march and hour before hand useless gits

captainbarnacle Sat 26-Oct-13 18:58:13

Ventnor gets cuts off in snow, and the tv and radio masts are on the highest point on the island. But the worst isn't coming until 1am Monday morning, so should be fine until tomorrow night.

KenAdams Sat 26-Oct-13 19:15:20

This is great OYWWW. Are they still saying the SE will bear the brunt of it? I'm in the East Mids and unable to get back to my own house in East Anglia until after the storm so nothing is tied down outside.

greenapples Sat 26-Oct-13 19:15:22

Jersey spud - I look at netweather.tv for Guernsey. There is also the daily forecast from gsyweather.com on facebook. Your weather will no doubt be similar to what we've been forecast.

ethelb Sat 26-Oct-13 19:29:01

@cider cake is good. I did a wine and chocolate run yesterday evening. Also bought a pack of fuses, in case power goes off, then comes back on again in a surge and blows everything! (Though of course I will run around pulling plugs out!)

GloriaSmud Sat 26-Oct-13 19:32:26

The folks on met-monkey (weather message board) have said that Ian Fergusson from the metoffice has said on Twitter that he thinks there might be some areas of Devon, Somerset and Dorset that could be upped to a red warning, depending on what the next few model runs show.
Not sure whether this section of the metoffice website has been linked to, about what to do in severe weather.

littlegem12 Sat 26-Oct-13 19:34:24

I think I should get out more because im actually quite excited about this.
Bought some candles today (you never know) keeping phone and laptop charge full and put freezer on fast freeze so everythings a bit extra frozen solid incase powers off a while. I remember 87 I was 7 and it was the first time I'd known a power cut it lasted 2 days.

SpookyTeacakes Sat 26-Oct-13 19:37:02

Umm can someone tell me what tomorrow will be like in terms of rain? My MO app isn't working and I really want to go pumpkin picking with dd grin in godalming (Surrey)

Also I'm currently stuck on a train because of a fallen tree in Liss. Ffs the storm hasn't even hit yet!

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 19:38:18

Jersey at the moment does look like it will really get the brunt.
The SEand central southern coasts looks pretty nasty too. See post at 17:35 smile

Plomino Sat 26-Oct-13 19:45:11

Well it's definitely picking up in the Norfolk Fens , and we're used to the wind here . Have been out and bought lots of torches and light sticks , topped up on the tins of soup , milk , and refilled the log store by the house from the big wood house . New gas bottle has been connected , cars fuelled up , horses and dogs have got feed , and I don't need to go anywhere till Tuesday morning . DH is coming home from the West Country tomorrow evening , so we're pretty prepared if it all goes wrong . That said , we're used to power cuts as we tend to get a lot this time of year , because the geese flying in from Russia are notoriously bad at landing at the bird reserve, and they clip the power lines at least once or twice a week !

I've

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Sat 26-Oct-13 19:46:45

I'd go in the morning teacakes. Damp afternoon!

I think that Sussex and Kent will get red warnings.

PestoSpookissimos Sat 26-Oct-13 19:48:39

Oh goodness, I'm supposed to be driving from Brighton to Tunbridge Wells for DD2's ski course. I do hope it gets cancelled on safety grounds <<worried>>