Forecast for May Day weekend?

(79 Posts)
hillbilly Mon 22-Apr-13 13:27:10

OYBBK of course this is directed to you (and anyone else!).....we are hoping to camp in Buckinghamshire and I have everything crossed for dry weather. What's the chance of that?

well at the moment the models show the bastard weather has decided to treat us all with a plummet in temperatures at the weekend. Risk of frosts I'm afraid and much colder by day. On the plus side, at the moment it does look dry.

hillbilly Mon 22-Apr-13 14:39:35

Hmmmm. That's not great!

AmandinePoulain Mon 22-Apr-13 14:42:45

Noooo!!! <Stamps feet repeatedly!> It's not fair! We cancelled our camping trip at Easter in france because of the damn snow, and I've booked to camp near Chessington that weekend to enjoy my last weekend off before going back to work from maternity leave!

IT'S NOT FAIR

sad

hillbilly Mon 22-Apr-13 15:10:46

So that's for Bank holiday weekend OYBBK, not this weekend right?

oh hang on... you are right! sorry, thought the bank holiday was this weekend sad

digerd Tue 23-Apr-13 10:10:40

S.Herts

It was so warm in my back garden at 9am, I decided to wear a cotton t-shirt with a thin knitted bolero on top to walk little dog, where it is not so sheltered and avoided the sunny side.

I was fine - hurray. Supposed to be 22 tomorrow ? before winter returns at weekend. More cloud than blue sky developed now sad

digerd Tue 23-Apr-13 10:14:02

More blue sky and sunshine now. Must water my Camelia planted in the ground as seems to be struggling due to the long dry months since the snow.

fatsamsgrandslam Tue 23-Apr-13 16:41:20

So is there still a chance the May Bank Holiday weekend weather will be dry and warm? We've got my daughter's christening on the 5th and I'd very much like to request weather like today's please....wink

digerd Wed 24-Apr-13 17:45:42

Very warm and muggy atm,. It could at least rain in the night as pots now need watering and still not mended my hosepipe. Too tired to walk round with the watering can.

hillbilly Wed 24-Apr-13 18:50:14

So, any sign yet of what the Bank holiday weekend will be like?

johnworf Thu 25-Apr-13 17:58:58

We're camping in Warks end of May bank holiday (is that the same one the OP is asking about?) and would love to know if we're going to get at least dry weather.

Purlease say yes.

meglet Sat 27-Apr-13 19:22:41

We need it to be sunny next weekend. I'm being thrifty and staying at home, if it's sunny I can chuck the kids in the garden.

Sorry, lots of real life!

Just going to have a check.

It's looking pretty unsettled which means that details for any particular day are going to be pretty sketchy at the moment and the models reflect that with differing solutions.

According to GFS Saturday doesn't look too bad, a bit showery really but then on Sunday a rather irritating low pressure is shown to the south of the UK which would bring rain and showers spreading in from the south west through Sunday and Monday. Pretty warm in parts of central eastern areas though.

ECMWF has a low pressure dominating northern UK on Saturday which would bring widespread wet or wettish weather and much cooler than the GFS model. It keeps this through the Sunday with the low sinking south.

UKMO only goes up to Saturday but has the low even further north and so the southern half would probably be fine and quite nice.

So as you can see, pretty impossible to forecast currently!

leesmum Sun 28-Apr-13 18:53:59

Aww so you can't tell me what the weekend of the 11/12 may will be like? It's Ds1's first holy communion on the sun and I'm having everyone back to ours...would be nice to think we could all be outside boozing in the sun wink wine

sadly not leesmum, but bump me closer to the time. I hope you all have a lovely day!

leesmum Sun 28-Apr-13 19:39:03

Will do and I'm sure it will be a special day whatever the weather x

hillbilly Mon 29-Apr-13 14:48:04

Thanks OYBK, I'm on weather watch from now on and it's not looking too good!

digerd Mon 29-Apr-13 16:52:46

S.Herts.
Decent night temp last night @ +8, and lots of sun but the wind was annoyingly very cold this morning and still chilly this afternoon.

We have gorgeous frollicking lambs in the field behind me smile

fatsamsgrandslam Tue 30-Apr-13 07:13:27

Thanks OYBBK! You've confirmed my fears and I've booked the local village hall for our party rather that have it in our garden. Think it will be a bit too chilly.

hillbilly Tue 30-Apr-13 11:37:55

It's starting to look promising for the weekend in Bucks according to BBC and UK.weather. Dryish and around 15.....

digerd Tue 30-Apr-13 12:33:57

S.Herts

It is the wind chill factor, though, here. Not so cold as yesterday was,

GFS paints a happier picture today smile Not entirely dry, some showers for the northern half on Saturday and then some scattered showers for others on Sun/Mon. I think that if these happen they may get a little thundery in nature on Monday, but some warm temps especially for central england.

UKMO has it a bit more unsettled for the north on the saturday and not quite so warm overall.

ECMWF tends to keep the more settled and warmer weather to the SE and is the least positive of the three models.

Still, trending in the right direction!

Latest model runs....

GFS shows a gradient from the NW to the SE with the NW seeing the coolest dampest weather and the SE seeing the warmest driest weather (though not as warm as the models showed yesterday). Through the BHW it tends to dry up a bit more and warm up a bit more and Monday looks dry almost everywhere.

UKMO shows a similar picture.

ECMWF shows the low pressure to the north with more influence over the UK, pushing the pleasant weather further south.

lirael Wed 01-May-13 08:19:04

We are camping near Lyme Regis from Sat - Mon. Any chance of some sun OYBBK? BBC promises a glimmer, but only 13 degrees, which is not warm enough for this fair weather camper... So annoying, as it's been lovely here in Somerset all week and we're promised 16 degrees today. 16! Time to break out the summer wardrobe.

Sun, yes quite probably. Warmth, well.... Unsure at present!

GFS is going for around 17C. It can over cook the temps a bit, but I don't think it is too much this time round.

It is absolutely gorgeous here in Warwick at the moment! I am in shorts!

lirael Wed 01-May-13 14:15:47

17C! I would happily settle for 17C grin. It's gorgeous here in Somerset today too - BBC says 14C but I'm sure it's way warmer than that.

AmandinePoulain Wed 01-May-13 14:29:40

grin

You mean to say that I'm going to go camping this weekend and not get wet? Chessington here we come!

grin

Amandine, it is possible smile perhaps some thundery showers later over the BH.

digerd Thu 02-May-13 06:49:34

S.Herts
We did have lots of sun yesterday, but that northerly wind was too cold.
Warm out of the wind.

Night temps +2 and a slight frost this morning. When will I be able to turn the heating OFF? angry

I know Digerd, I want to get the guinea pigs out of the house! Just for a couple of months <wheedles>

funkybuddah Thu 02-May-13 21:41:41

OYBBK (and anyone else of course) I know its a long way off but any ideas or inklings for 11th/12th May, from midnight going into the 12th until around 9am in London?

Im doing the Moonwalk and dont care about the weather as long as its not heavy rain (its gonna be torrential now Ive said that)

Thanks

At the moment it's looking good funky smile dry but on the chilly side.

funkybuddah Fri 03-May-13 03:09:18

Brilliant, cold is fine, will warm up anyway but 26 miles in the rain would not be great.

Looking to be a pretty nice weekend in general now smile bit of showers to get through tomorrow for some and perhaps the odd one about here and there. Northern England not quite so warm and much of Scotland positively cool but by Monday, England and Wales look pretty warm away from coasts and even by the coasts not too bad really. Hooray!

digerd Fri 03-May-13 12:44:45

S.Herts

Beautiful sunny and warm so far, and the cold wind has disappearedsmile.

digerd Fri 03-May-13 12:50:26

ps.
Not a cloud in the sky here.

digerd Fri 03-May-13 15:42:24

22 degrees here and too warm for me in the sheltered garden, and 8 climbing roses need watering. So later must try to mend my hosepipe.
There was a cooling nice breeze across the open fields for little furry dog's walk at 3pm. But now crashed out on the cold kitchen floor to cool down.

digerd Fri 03-May-13 15:43:31

ps
Little dog not me!

tiokiko Fri 03-May-13 16:02:33

Is it ever going to be sunny again in Edinburgh?

yes tio, probably some sunshine tomorrow smile

digerd i did wonder before I read on!

tiokiko Fri 03-May-13 17:30:56

<ungrateful alert> I meant real sun, warmer weather... maybe where the DDs won't need to wear vests any more?

Thanks OYBBK, will make the most of the feeble sun tomorrow and hope for a miracle in the summer!

lol!! sorry, took you a bit literally!

41notTrendy Fri 03-May-13 17:38:56

Planning a BBQ here in Nottm Sunday eve. OYBBK, what are the chances of a sunny warm(ish) evening? Would we be better doing it Sat? Sadly at in laws on Monday so can't do it then.

inia Fri 03-May-13 18:11:35

"and much of Scotland positively cool " is a bit of an understatement Kitten grin There's definitely snow mixed in with the rain and about 1 degree

... off to get some more wood for the fire

41, either day looks nice. Perhaps Saturday a bit sunnier and Sunday a bit warmer, but for this time of year I don't think you can go wrong. Have a nice time!

Inia, I heard that this morning! Spring isn't quite there yet for you is it?

41notTrendy Fri 03-May-13 21:24:33

Thank you smile

digerd Sat 04-May-13 07:10:29

S.Herts

Later in the afternoon it became more tolerable in the garden and managed to mend my hosepipe, water 8 climbing roses, several pots, other plants in the garden, do some weeding, and fill up the pond which had gone down again. Took little dog for a cool walk at 6.30pm < still sunny> and when I got back remembered I'd forgotten to turn off the hosepipe filling up the pond!!

Better night temp at +7 and sunny again. Heating came on at 6am, but now gone off for the day smile

digerd Sat 04-May-13 07:43:39

confused
Sun disappeared. Sky no longer bright blue!

Don't worry digerd, just need to get this little cold front out of the way then things should brighten up and improve loads this afternoon.

Oops re the pond! Mine needs refilling too, but hopefully without the garden flooding!

digerd Sat 04-May-13 12:36:20

S.Herts

At the moment it is thunder and lightening and pouring down.
Good for the garden but those poor campers sad

digerd Sat 04-May-13 12:45:08

And if it is the same at 3pm, no doggie walks in this. It was fine this morning if a bit chilly with no sun.
confused

digerd Sat 04-May-13 12:46:31

But the heating has stayed OFF - hooray. smile

BackforGood Sat 04-May-13 12:49:51

All mine are on various camps this weekend.
I persuaded all of them to take sun hats and sun cream and shorts.

We've had lots of HEAVY showers, ( admitedly inbetween sunny spells) here all morning blush

(Birmingham)

digerd Sat 04-May-13 12:58:42

Just looked out and the sky has developed some blue patches and lighter ones, so in respite at the moment. Temp plummeted from 15 to 12 in 30 minutes. It was 19 at 10.36

digerd Sat 04-May-13 13:01:51

Sun come out again now. smile

41notTrendy Sat 04-May-13 19:46:09

Beautiful evening here in Notts. smile

digerd Sun 05-May-13 06:43:38

S.Herts

The rain did stop and it became sunny again, but air was cooler.
Last night colder again at +4, but sunny atm.
[

It will warm up again through today and tomorrow smile

digerd Sun 05-May-13 10:06:07

Just got back from dog walk. In the sun it was very warm with a fresh breeze. More white clouds arriving from the east though.
But is lovely this morningsmile

More clouds than blue sky here. Not unexpected but I wish they would go away!

leesmum Sun 05-May-13 17:45:23

Same here Kitten, not seen the sun at all today, am hoping to need my factor 50 tomorrow wink

There will be some cloud around tomorrow but in general I think more sun than cloud.

PeneloPeePitstop Mon 06-May-13 20:37:18

Forecast giving 3 degrees for obligation, is that right? (Sussex)

Shoud I protect my tomatoes?

Obligation? Do you mean overnight? grin where did you get that temp from? I think that a min of around 7c is prob the worst you will see.

However, gales on weds thurs. your plants may need staking!!!

PeneloPeePitstop Mon 06-May-13 21:29:36

Overnight. Lovely autocorrect!

digerd Mon 06-May-13 21:39:31

Had a lovely warm sunny day today and + 10 minimum temp last night.

What is this about only +3 tonight? confused Turned my heating off couple of days ago < it only came on for a short while in the mornings anyway>
15 atm S.Herts.

PeneloPeePitstop Mon 06-May-13 21:51:36

It was Netweather.

Don't worry GFS does tend to go too low on these night time minima.

digerd Tue 07-May-13 09:25:59

rilliant prediction as bang on +7 last night. Warm and sunny today.

We do still need rain for the garden, though. During the night will be finesmile

digerd Tue 07-May-13 09:27:39

Brilliant -

smile

We need rain too, but unfortunately for those who want it in the south east and eastern england, it looks like the more useful rain will stay to the west of us. You may see some showers or patchy rain tomorrow but at the moment your best bet is for thursday night I think.

fraid things cool off drastically tomorrow sad

digerd Tue 07-May-13 21:30:53

Oh NO!! Not drastically cooler. Just put my winter fleece trousers away and brought out my summer velour ones. < but still got my thermal long johns on> . And been wearing my summer light jackets.angry

It was lovely today, just right for me. But after filling up my pond a few days ago, noticed yesterday the pump has suddenly stopped working sad

leesmum Tue 07-May-13 21:49:10

Does that mean this weekend will be bobbins for Ds1's holy communion on sun? Never mind we can still drink wine indoors wink

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