Badkittens forecast for the coming week or so.

(382 Posts)

Ok.

Models I've looked at for this are GFS (incl ensembles, which I've chosen Oxfordshire as a base as its a goodish pick for central england) UKMO, ECMWF and NAE (for short term)

NAE (model goes to +48 hours)
Today shows snow in EA, north Wales and upwards at 18:00-00:00 it then thins the snow out to EA, nothern midlands (north England) and north east Scotland by morning through to the afternoon. It then shows precip petering out with just patches here and there. Worth noting how much it shows Northern Ireland getting by monday. Ice is going to be a massive problem for many over the next couple of days as max temps dont get above zero in many parts of England (away from the south and coastal areas) Wales and Scotland.

GFS: (model goes out to 9th April)
Shows a quieter picture next week in terms of precipitation (thank goodness as so many areas are beyond saturation). Signals are for precipitation to restart in earnest through the Easter weekend to about the 4th A fair bit of model agreement in the ensembles for this. Flooding quite possibly a problem again at Easter. Temps are cold throughout, perhaps a little warmer that the next few days but not looking like it will get beyond around 8C in the time period. Again ice will be a major short term problem for many.

UKMO (model goes out to 144 hours)
short term, EA has a lot of snow to come on this model tonight into tomorrow morning. It also shows a north-south precip divide with south of Lancashire(ish)/Yorkshire(ish) getting the precip tomorrow before it peters out. It then shows a relatively dry few days before thursday into Friday, where Good Friday may have difficult travel conditions. One to watch for sure!

ECMWF (model goes out to 240 hours)

similar to UKMO but then oh dear, on Good Friday a rather dodgy area of low pressure would bring the potential for widespread disruptive snow.

So, to summarise. All models in agreement for less precipitation after this weekend, but remaining cold. Ice a problem to start with and at night for many through the week. Towards the end of the week becoming unsettled again, with the chance for heavy rain or disruptive snow for Easter. No sign of Spring.

hellhasnofurylikeahungrywoman Sat 23-Mar-13 17:34:54

Such lovely weather for the time of year dontcha think? Thank you OYBBK

Its splendid! I want to do my gardening!!! <regards veggies patch under snow>

At least the slugs will drown.

eminemmerdale Sat 23-Mar-13 17:40:02

sitting here in Cambridge debating how to get to the party we should be going to tonight! DH says cycle shock it's not ever so thick snow but hasn't stopped all day - I say car and walk back.. (it's about 2 miles through town)

LillethTheCat Sat 23-Mar-13 17:41:25

Happy to see that snow is unlikely to be here for the start of the week as I have an exam to drive to 45 mins down the A1. Not happy so see that Spring isn't coming any time soon. I want to get back into running again ASAP, but as Ive been waiting for better weather, I might be waiting a while yet sad

Tortington Sat 23-Mar-13 17:41:35

i say walk there - taxi back and get pissed - surely this is a contender eminennerdale?

LillethTheCat Sat 23-Mar-13 17:42:37

On another note, just been out with the dog. Was walking through the village green. At some parts you could just see the tops of grass poking through, but at some places the snow was nearly up to my knees.

even here, where the wind hasnt been a particular factor and we didnt actually get that much the variation in snow depth is quite notable from none, to a few cm to flood depending on the surface. Its a bit fascinating!

Hope you were suitably dressed for knee deep snow lilleth!

rainbowsprite1 Sat 23-Mar-13 17:51:30

Where I am, the IOM, it has been so varied. Parts of the island have no snow, other parts have drifts so big that people cant open the doors of their houses & one village is completely cut off. OYBBK what causes such variations over even small distances??

I forgot my usual disclaimer! I'm not a professional, just an amateur, so please dont make any important decisions based on what I say. The met office are the ones I'd choose for decisions where it really counts.

rainbowsprite, I'm not entirely sure of the geography of the Isle of Man. Has it been wet where theres no snow? Microclimates have a big role to play in this kind of weather where temperatures are really borderline for rain/snow. They can be affected by hills, soil type, bodies of water. I'd love to see a map of snow on the island and then I might be able to answer it better.

rainbowsprite1 Sat 23-Mar-13 17:57:43

OYBBK it is tea time for the kids but I'll try and dig out a map later. Thanks for your prompt response.

that would be cool, thank you smile

Hadnt noticed that was the time shock fish and chips tonight!!!

As a bit of an aside, as it is being affected by the continuing cold weather, if you are interested in the gas storage issue, you can keep an eye on it: margins notice report. Click on the report and scroll to the last graph, which I believe shows the amount of gas stored currently. I'm hoping that they can import more than they appear to be doing currently to top up the stored levels. If I've misunderstood the graph please shout up!

LillethTheCat Sat 23-Mar-13 18:40:07

So is the country running out of gas due to the weather then? Im not going to download it as I dont want to use up any of my download limit. Hope they get more gas for people.

ajandjjmum Sat 23-Mar-13 18:45:29

Kitten
You once saved Christmas for my family (that is NO joke), and I now need you to rescue us again!
DS was supposed to be having his 21st party in a marquee today - thank goodness we postponed (as he decided to bugger off on holiday!). It's now planned for the 6th - in the Midlands. I'm feeling the need for valium coming on!! grin I can live with cold, even rain, but 8" of snow on the ground would be a problem. Should I be looked at standby venues?!!!!
Any thoughts?
smile

eminemmerdale Sat 23-Mar-13 18:46:47

we've decided bikes grin it has stopped snowing and at our ages, we won;t be there long anyway...!

travellingwilbury Sat 23-Mar-13 18:53:11

Thanks kitten , I will be interested to see what Easter brings .

Please let spring happen soon .

dh and I have been pouring over the graphs. They say a lot about our current situation confused we hope that we are misinterpreting them.

OYBBK thank you.
I have family travelling from scotland to midlands for Easter its not looking promising. Don't fancy driving around east Anglia for work next week either!
Welcome to Spring everyone!!

lilleth, in a nutshell, it looks concerning and if we are understanding them correctly we figure that they either will have to:

a) run our stocks into the ground and hope that things improve before we are stuffed
b)magic up some more gas from goodness knows where
c)start rationing

We arent sure whether it is just our weather that is a factor, I've read of some supply issues (need to do more reading to consolidate understanding) and parts of europe have had a very cold winter.

This isnt either of our fields and I'm hoping someone will come along and tell me to stop talking bollocks.

aj, I think I would, although gfs for that day has the precip along the south and it looks too warm to snow, it still looks cold and a bit chancey.

41notTrendy Sat 23-Mar-13 19:13:48

OYBBK, how far in advance do you think it's possible to predict weather, with reasonable accuracy?
For instance, I've read what you've said about one model for Easter and beyond, and had a look on Metcheck which seem to say rain in the week after Easter weekend. We're going to the Lakes so I'm wondering whether to ditch packing outdoor stuff and take games and DVDs!

LillethTheCat Sat 23-Mar-13 19:14:47

I hope they get something sorted soon and that the gas lasts.

Im also hoping that Met office is correct with forecasts. Every forecast Ive looked at says snow all week, apart from the Met Office which looks dry. Ive had enough of this now. I just want spring <stamps foot in a huff>

IamtheZombie Sat 23-Mar-13 19:15:31

Kitten, Zombie is safely home from Whitby. It was a much slower journey back although for the most part the main roads were clear. She ran into some heavy persistent snow between Telford and Shrewsbury and has returned to 6 inches of snow in South Shropshire.

It was actually an interesting journey. Absolutey nothing from Whitby until York and then that was just a dusting. From then it varied between several inches to not much more than a dusting and back again. It was really only from around Burton on Trent that it became more consistent.

41, it really depends, today in the south, not very accurately at all. I'd say though in general 3-5 days is good, after that it is general trends. One way to look at how accurate the models might be is to look at the ensembles the closer the lines are together, the more confident you can be.

metcheck uses the gfs model (without any human interpretation added in to the forecast)

glad you made it back ok zombie smile

takeaway2 Sat 23-Mar-13 19:35:49

Hi kitten
I've always read your postings with great interest but never commented as was never ever travelling beyond the immediate area... Until this week and the next couple of weeks!!

I'm in Brussels tomorrow using the euro Chunnel. Hopefully it'll all go well! I return midweek.

But then after Easter, we will need to travel up to Manchester (we are in the se) on Thursday... I realise that its a way away but I'm panicking now. Other than having to change wedding outfits to non-spring ones... I will also need to travel 6 hours or more... Help! Should we make alternative plans??
Thanks a lot.

Just very light snow flurries on and off all day, nothing lying here at all!

Takeaway, I wouldn't make any changes yet, it's way too early and the models diverge at the end of this week so there's no confidence at all in the following week.

Manky, manchesters snow shield is truly amazing. How was your first day?

edam Sat 23-Mar-13 20:12:40

OYBK, may I ask, what do you think North Norfolk will be like over Easter? I'm beginning to regret booking a caravan...

ShipwreckedAndComatose Sat 23-Mar-13 20:19:56

You are addictive kitten!!

41notTrendy Sat 23-Mar-13 20:24:18

Thank you OYBBK. I see what you mean. I'll bookmark that one!

Edam, at the moemnts the models show either cold and at times wet or cold and snowy.
I'd certainly be packing hot water bottles and hot chocolate.

Shipwrecked blush I reckon anything to do with the weather is addictive

ShipwreckedAndComatose Sat 23-Mar-13 20:32:44

I'm planning a birthday trip for my son to legoland on the second April and then a holiday to Liverpool from Sussex.

I'll be watching this thread with hope interest...

digerd Sat 23-Mar-13 20:37:08

S.Herts
Snowed all morning but turned to sleet and melted except on grass.
PM Snowed again even heavier and settled again - semi blizzarding.
Just looked now and driveway has melted mostly again, but 0 degrees already, and anticipating/dreading it being icy early morning at least.

blibblibs Sat 23-Mar-13 20:41:23

We're heading down to Poole on Monday from the West Mindlands - any advice?
5 days in a caravan - snowsuits or will we get away with just waterproofs?
Already have tickets for Peppa pig world, any idea which day might be best?
TIA

edam Sat 23-Mar-13 21:04:57

Thanks OYBK - just my luck!

takeaway2 Sat 23-Mar-13 21:05:07

Thank you kitten for replying! smile Thing is, we need to be at the wedding. Hotel booked, kids are flower girl and page boy. All sorted. Just need to get there!!!! At the moment I'm looking for merino wool tights to wear with the dress. Mad.

schilke Sat 23-Mar-13 21:05:58

Really wish I hadn't bothered booking an after Easter holiday in this country! I only did it because we can't go away between April & September due to dh working. I now have visions of us being trapped in a house in miserable weather and everyone moaning....

OYBBK, it was ok thanks!

I knew that the snow forecast was too good to be true. sad

Blibb, I don't think you will need either until the end of the week, then you might need waterproofs, but you might squeak through without. You will need warm and wind proof clothing and hot water bottles. Absolutely nothing to choose between the days so I'd go for tues or weds as confidence in the forecast will be higher closer to the beginning of te week.

D0G Sat 23-Mar-13 21:33:20

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Jux Sat 23-Mar-13 22:49:05

Re the gad, I'll ask my brother tomorrow if he knows anything. He's relatively high up in C e n t r i c a (don't want this to come up on any searches!) so generally knows more than goes out to news.

Hope there's not too much more rain in the west country. We're a bit damp and sodden here, and the farmers are having a terrible time.

Jus, that would be really interesting. Most measured report I've read is from reuters

Farming must be horrific at the moment.

I did read that stocks reached this level last time in march 2010 and restrictions were applied to big businesses (maybe gas powered stations??? ) but this winter is not relinquishing so far, though it will, and some of the coal fired stations that would take up the slack have been closed or will close by the end of the month.

Jux Sat 23-Mar-13 23:33:07

Yep, farming has been horrendous for a long time due to things like supermarkets paying farmers so little, feed costs rising out of proportion to what an animal is worth at sale and so on. The weather of the last few years has really pushed farms to the edge. We a friend who farms cattle and his grain harvest (for feed) has been badly affected the last couple of years at least. Many farmers are turning at least some of their fields into campsites - that's been happening for a long time for all sorts of reasons, but it all comes down to the fact that farming has not been lucrative for many years. Personally, I find it scandalous and a bit frightening that we couldn't feed ourselves if we had to.

Jux Sat 23-Mar-13 23:37:33

I read today that big businesses will be restricted in their power use this week, but as the cold weather is set to continue, restrictions will have to be placed on domestic customers too. We are using too much power to keep ourselves warm.

I think we will have to increase nuclear power. We are due to have massive problems with electricity. I understand there won't be enough by 2015 unless something drastic is done and wind power and wave power and solar are not enough to make up the shortfall. Never will be. I may have got that wrong, but will check tomorrow.

That's exactly how I understand it too Jux, unfortunately those that organise our power supply have left it rather late, new power stations aren't going to happen from scratch in just two years.

Agree with you about farming too. We are becoming far too vulnerable as a nation.

ShipwreckedAndComatose Sun 24-Mar-13 07:44:32

I agree with this too. Our dependency on other countries is too scary

Woke this morning to...not a flake. Nothing lying or falling!

blibblibs Sun 24-Mar-13 08:01:17

OYBBK Thank you. Woken up here to more snow still falling but I will be brave and leave the snowsuits at home!

GloriaSmud Sun 24-Mar-13 08:06:56

Have made it to Porthmadog! Thankyou to oybbk for advising us to delay the journey by a day - main roads are clear but there are 20-30cms snow on side roads. There are quite a few abandoned cars that won't be going anywhere for a few days and 1 or 2 tree branches down. Have taken a few pictures so hope to put those on profile when I get back next weekend.
Thanks once again, oybbk!

Perihelion Sun 24-Mar-13 08:15:12

manky still nothing here in Edinburgh either.......
Really can't get my head round nuclear being the energy solution after having watched Into Eternity/Nuclear Eternity documentary about Finland building a waste repository. IMO no more nuclear power stations should be built until a long term solution for waste storage is available.

digerd Sun 24-Mar-13 08:41:38

S.Herts
Started snowing heavily about 8am, now looks more like sleet, but not stopping. -1 last night.

Yay Gloria smile I'm so glad that it worked well for you and that you got there safely smile

I'm conscious that I've dragged this thread rather off topic and that.there are lots of us with strong opinions on this, with the risk that the thread might go a bit pear shaped grin shall we try and keep this thread to the immediate issues and we could talk about the mid and longer term in another thread?

Fortunately our temp has only just dipped to below zero thanks to cloud cover so it hasn't had chance to really freeze. Take care those of you further north.

Woah!!!!
What a flip by our models smile both GFS and ECMWF bring in spring like temperatures at some point over the Easter weekend. The transition could be a messy snow/rain one followed by lots of rain and unfortunately the very really risk of flooding for many, especially where run off from hills can be a problem. GFS has it moving in very slowly from the south.

Based on these models I recommend packing waterproofs, wellies and perhaps a canoe for any Easter hols planned.

LillethTheCat Sun 24-Mar-13 10:24:05

Does this mean we might not get any more snow?

<worries about getting excited for no reason>

Id be interested in a mid to long term thread.

Perhaps lilleth. I hope so! Though some may prefer it to the flooding that looks likely to happen under today's models.

Will start a thread on mid/long term power generation in the science topic. (I think that's the most suitable area?)

Thread to discuss Britains energy crisis here

eminemmerdale Sun 24-Mar-13 10:58:01

didn't cycle in the end - car and taxi grin bloody good job for two reasons - a lot of champagne imbibed blush and it snowed like mad all evening and overnight.

ShipwreckedAndComatose Sun 24-Mar-13 11:01:07

Ok, I cannot stress enough the need for it to be reasonable in Winsor on 2nd April!!!!!!!!!

ajandjjmum Sun 24-Mar-13 11:36:54

And in the Midlands on the 6th Shipwrecked.

Maybe kitten you could start a thread giving our requests, so that those in charge can make things happen accordingly!!! grin

ShipwreckedAndComatose Sun 24-Mar-13 11:46:08

Exactly! Weather made to order....

digerd Sun 24-Mar-13 12:28:17

ps.
Just been to wheely bin and lid is well and truly iced stuck and couldn't open it . It's only -1?

MegGriffin Sun 24-Mar-13 13:03:27

BBC Sussex weather lady just mentioned a possible snow event for the bank holiday weekend.

HotCrossNaanAndRessurectiOn Sun 24-Mar-13 13:15:30

West coast Cumbria / North Lancashire; No snow here, just bitingly cold. The mountains are covered though.

We had an interesting debate yesterday in the car about what would happen if we put the government in charge of the weather.

We reckoned that it would be grey all week to keep the workers working with rain at night of rather farmers. Weekends would be nice as obviously would bank holidays. Close to the election we'd have loads of fab weather (and the party in opposition would be promising sun forever more) wed only be allowed snow for a few hours on Christmas Day as it costs the economy far too much.
The SE would get far more than their fair share of sunshine under the Tories and the north would always be gloomy. That would be reversed under Labour. The Greens would make it perpetually windy for the wind farm areas. Then the Trade Unions would get involved........

meg, that would be with regards to the potential transition point between the cold we have now and the warmer weather coming in. lots of moisture bumping into cold air can give rather unpredictable results as I intimated earlier in the forecast I gave today.

Digerd, it's the same here, roads which have high thermal mass are not frozen over, but other surfaces like bins and the guinea pigs cage are iced over.

Jux Sun 24-Mar-13 13:58:05

Sorry for hijack again. Don't worry about gas; Belgium pipeline very small fault, almost certainly fixed by now. Tankers take a while and then a while to unload but hike in gas price means Continent more likely to want to sell to us via various pipelines.

Thanks Jux smile the upturn in the forecast must also be a relief!

The storage situation still looks tight in the national grid daily report but I see the medium term storage looks a little better. Has your brother got any comments on it? smile

edam Sun 24-Mar-13 14:58:18

OYBBK grin @ canoe!

LillethTheCat Sun 24-Mar-13 15:11:41

You're right upthread Kitten. Snow is preferable to flooding. I was just reading that it was finally going to get warmer, but it is no good if its going to bring lots of rain with it sad

Well summer better be bloody good after all this snow and rain and potential flooding. Fingers crossed people are safe.

mikey9 Sun 24-Mar-13 15:29:21

Believe itor not - our area of the Highlands (Moray Firth and Inverness area) has had a perfectly fine Winter - with very little snow - nothing that has stayed for more than a day - and only very occasional falls.
Have also had very little precipitation and temps have been warmer than usual with very few freezing days.

To add to this - last summer was great......although we are constantly bombarded with the "fact" that last summer was rubbish across the UK - and no doubt will be told the same about this winter.

We have to go looking ofr sledging snow - I think the kids have given up hoping for it for this year!

oh hell sad I think I may have been a bit too enthusiastic about the models this morning.
Might need snow suits over Easter for many, rather than a transitory affair that was showing this morning, its just possible it might be rather like this weekend.

Now clearly its not set in stone and could go either way, but, dont get your hopes up too enormously.

MooncupGoddess Sun 24-Mar-13 16:04:26

Oh dear!

I am going to be on a boat along the Essex coast over the Easter weekend... how's the wind looking, OYBBK?

digerd Sun 24-Mar-13 16:26:06

I'm not going anywhere, just walking little dog in my eskimo outfit morning and afternoon. < and doing some spring cleaning>.
Not got above freezing all day.

mooncup, it depends which model you look at I'm afraid.

MegGriffin Sun 24-Mar-13 18:02:44

Kitten have you ever thought of having a weather facebook page we could follow?

ermmm, would I be able to do it so I was secret? not sure I'd want to out myself, though I do feel that I lead a very odd split life grin I'll have to think about that.

LadyFlumpalot Sun 24-Mar-13 18:13:51

Kitten, please can I ask what you reckon for inland Kent (Tonbridge) next weekend? We are supposed to be travelling from Dorset to see relatives in Tonbridge, but if it's going to be an issue getting home again I'd rather not. Thanks!

At the moment it's dry, but effing cold here. We had a mystery and sudden snow storm last Sunday that was VERY localised and deposited about 4inches on the ground. By 3pm it had all gone and was warm enough to take coats off!

LillethTheCat Sun 24-Mar-13 18:14:37

Bums sad

Meglet Sun 24-Mar-13 18:14:44

this depressing article was in last weeks Observer

I haven't sown any seeds yet, I wonder if what the farmers have managed to do so far this 'Spring'.

ladyflump, I really do think you need to keep an eye on things. at the moment theres two different scenarios back on the table cold and wet or cold and snowy. spring got postponed again in the latest gfs.

LadyFlumpalot Sun 24-Mar-13 18:22:37

Ok, thank you! I normally wouldn't mind a bit of an adventure, and a chance to stay off work if I got stuck the other side of the country, however, when it's a chance of getting stuck with the in-laws than I'd rather not risk it! grin

canutesauntie Sun 24-Mar-13 19:03:20

Slightly off topic, but I had to drive from Gloucestershire to Leicester yesterday. Woke up to heavy snow falling and wasnt keen to go but got on with it. Worst bit was getting down our lane!
Just wanted to say that the people keeping the main roads & motorways open were doing a brilliant job, loads of gritters/ snowploughs about so although the weather was vile the roads were ok.
Not so much other drivers - why dont people clear snow off the top of their cars? It ends up all over their back windows as they belt past in a slushy outside lane at 90,grrrr. Some real prizewinners out there.

Dry grey and bitter cold here - I've been looking at all the snow photos on friends fb profiles, and they have piles of snow. Some are only a few miles from here, but we have nothing!

LillethTheCat Sun 24-Mar-13 19:32:14

Can I ask about the next couple of days please?

Canute, it's a real bug bear of mine. I can't imagine how dangerous it would be for a motorcyclist say if a chunk of snow came off a car at the wrong moment.

Lilleth, very cold and mostly dry. Some snow showers perhaps in central and eastern northern areas tomorrow, perhaps moving into the northern midlands for a time later on and into Tuesday morning. Wind chill will be a particular issue tomorrow with winds gusting 30-40mph for many.

missorinoco Sun 24-Mar-13 19:50:09

How do you get the snow off the roof? A genuine question, not a defensive post. I can't reach the middle of my bonnet, let alone the roof. The snow scraper and I don't cut the mustard.

We use the long handled soft bristle floor brush(when we get enough snow to need it ...not this winter!)

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sun 24-Mar-13 20:00:23

<marks place to look out for Staffordshire Easter forecast>

missorinoco Sun 24-Mar-13 20:02:56

Good point, my outdoor brush will scratch the paint. I'm moving to where you are if you've not needed it this winter.

cumfy Sun 24-Mar-13 20:04:35

It was twenty-fucking-five degrees warmer this time last year.

25

<cries, wipes arse with ECWMF>

grin

Move to Manchester, where we have a very effective snow shield.

Mirage Sun 24-Mar-13 20:08:41

We are lambing at the minute and this weather has made it a nightmare.The fields are too waterlogged and cold to put the older lambs out in,so every barn is utilized as huge pens to keep them from dying of exposure.sadEven if it warms up,we can't physically get them onto the fields because the gateways are full of 3ft deep ruts full of water and we can't get any vehicles through them.

My poor ponies have no grass at all and are up to their hocks in freezing muddy water,I can't bring them in as there is no where for them to go,everywhere is full of sheep.My day job is as a gardener and I am losing money every day there is snow on the ground as I can't work. I'm well and truly fed up with the weather,it is just so relentlessly bad and it doesn't look as though there is any end in sight.sad

hillbilly Sun 24-Mar-13 20:15:23

A bit far off but we are going to the Isle of Wight on 12th April and staying in a beach hut shock I hope things improve by then!

Meglet Sun 24-Mar-13 20:19:20

mirage sad. I know almost nothing about farming, when should the lambs have been outside? From the start of March or sometime around then?

Whojamaflip Sun 24-Mar-13 20:31:29

OYBBK

Do you have any idea what bank holiday Monday will be like in the Evesham area?

My sil is getting married with a marquee on their farm and we are supposed to be camping confused Or should we be booking a taxi to the nearest hotel?

thanks wine brew

Mirage, that sounds utterly hideous sad I'm so sorry that its so bad.

Whojam, my best guess at the moment is cold and wet, but it might be cold and white.

Either way wellies and a taxi are in order I think, I love camping and there's no way in a billion years I'd camp next weekend!

ChippingInIsEggceptional Sun 24-Mar-13 20:48:42

OYBBK PLEASE don't sod off to bloody Facebook sad Too many good posters are being lost to it sad <stomps feet>

Oh don't worry, I'd never leave here smile

Oh, we made discussion of the day. I so wish I had some happy stuff to say to cheer the thread up. But if we all hang around here long enough spring is bound to win through isn't it?

Corygal Sun 24-Mar-13 21:11:57

Mirage - hope it clears a bit for you soon brew.

I am really LIVID about the dead weather now - despite living in a city, having no dc or even sheep.

My ancient and barmy parents are insisting on a 200 mile drive on Good Friday, despite the fact that Dad's gout renders him unable to stand, I can't take any exercise at all, resulting no doubt in medical nastiness, and I am fed up of being stuck apparently barely an inch under a concrete sky.

And I was really looking forward to spring and Easter, not having a lot to look forward to at the moment. Poetic understatement, that.

Corygal Sun 24-Mar-13 21:14:01

For the ref of MNetters UK-wide, pls avoid the A303 on Good Friday. Dad has no working feet and a fast Alfa Romeo.

ChippingInIsEggceptional Sun 24-Mar-13 21:18:24

Phew smile

I'm a bit weird - I actually love this weather smile

LadyFlumpalot Sun 24-Mar-13 21:35:28

Corygal - which direction please? We shall be making use of the A303 all the way from Mere to the M3 going East on Good Friday.

Corygal Sun 24-Mar-13 21:53:53

They are going from London to Hindon. Watch out for two grey heads in animated discussion in a red car doing min 100 mph. grin

Mirage Sun 24-Mar-13 22:30:01

Thank you,for the sympathy,I'm trying to give myself a kick up the arse and try and look on the bright side,at least I'm not out in the lambing shed at the minute,I don't do nights.I dread to think how cold it is down there.

Meglet we always start lambing relatively late,beginning of March,because theoretically,it is warmer and you have less mortality/fewer feed costs.This year there is less grass now than there was in January and there is no goodness in it,the cold has meant that has hardly grown,so we are feeding hay and hard feed to make up for that.

There is one funny thing we've noticed,When all the lambs in the shed get excited,they run around and around,all in the same direction,like a lamb vortex.I'll have to try and film it,they are quite amusing.

Oh how sweet!

Footage from Arran is horrific!

AllPurposeNortherner Sun 24-Mar-13 23:01:46

I am really glad that DD goes to school about 2 minutes walk away. We had to catch a bus today, and even waiting 5 minutes for the bus had DD2s blanket flying off in wind that made it hard to talk, my hands completely numb (which was interesting when I needed to get bus fare out...) and both DDs crying :-(

I think it will be a very home based week...

I've even got used to snow and floods recently (I've just moved from the North East, which has been crazy for the last couple of years) but it is this biting cold and strong wind that is awful.

(Lancashire)

The wind is the real cruelty in this isn't it.

Well I'm afraid I can't bring much in the way of good cheer. Remaining very cold this week, snow showers on and off in northern England. Rather a question mark over Friday still, but the question has changed more now to how much snow and where. GFS is a lot less bullish about bringing in snow on this run. The good news is that this model run is also less bullish about it being quite so wet, so whilst precip is on the cards for the time being flooding isn't quite such a threat.

ECMWF brings us one day of slightly more spring like temperatures early next week before all models put us back into the freezer.

We have blue sky! shock

Hulababy Mon 25-Mar-13 08:01:06

Off to Centre Parcs nr Suffolk next week,so hope it's not too bad. I dont fancy cycling in snow.

10y dd is up in Aberdeen at the moment so hope all is ok up there and she and my mum have no problems with the trains on Thursday.

The only benefit of being ill at the moment is I haven't ad to go out in this wether!

Bramblesinafield Mon 25-Mar-13 08:25:49

Any news noa week after Easter in the south west? We decided Cornwall rather than the canaries for our family holiday ...

Just see some photos of my friend's house in ne wales.her car is snowed in half way up its windows and the mile long track from her property is just as deep. She tells me there are two abandoned snow ploughs on it. They have managed so far, even without electricity for thirty hours, but will have to start to eat their chickens tomorrow if there is no sign of rescue. (They generally eat the boys, but are driven to extreme circumstances sad )

digerd Mon 25-Mar-13 09:14:42

S Herts

Sun did try to peep out but then gave up. 0 degrees in the night. Hope it doesn't snow for little dog's walk in an hour and then at 3pm.
I've been enjoying myself buying eskimo outfits in the sales. < smile>

Poledra Mon 25-Mar-13 09:50:44

Ah, the BadBadKitten Weather thread! I'm planning to drive from East Anglia to Central Scotland on the Easter weekend - looking at this treasd, I should be packing the snow shovel and rocksalt. Any chance at all that it might not be a complete disaster?

On a side note, we were driving into town on Saturday and DH started whistling 'It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas...' grin

Meglet Mon 25-Mar-13 10:34:43

mirage I would love to see a lamb vortex!

It's me and DD's day off work / nursery today and for once we're staying at home, inbetween school runs. Cabin fever is preferable to wind chill and endless layers of cold. (Hampshire).

Saltire Mon 25-Mar-13 10:36:36

Hmm, not liking this reportgrin. Meant to be on A66 on friday then going down M6 to Manchester for 3 nights!

Just back from a wedding in the snow. Now wondering about snowy easter.

I'm just grateful it's the easter holiday soon and I can stay inside with the kids instead of soldiering out in 'feels like' -8 weather.

Come on spring <sob>

Well Saltire, Manchester is not a problem in itself. We have NO SNOW!

The A66 might be a different matter though.

grants1000 Mon 25-Mar-13 11:28:37

We've not had a flake in Knutsford, Cheshire, not one flake!

grants we had a few flakes but nothing else - it certainly did not lie or last if it did!

3monkeys Mon 25-Mar-13 11:34:59

We had a horrific drive from the Wirral to Centerparcs in Cumbria on Friday. Next weekend we have to go to Bedford for Easter so please let it not snow!! My heart can't take it

grants1000 Mon 25-Mar-13 11:42:50

Yes my Mum is in Heswall and send us some fab thick now pics!

HesterShaw Mon 25-Mar-13 13:07:32

Mirage, that sounds dreadful sad

OYBBK is it true that as the "spring" progresses, IF this blocking high pressure over Scandinavia sinks a little bit south, things should warm up and we will see a marked change in the weather? Is it true? Can it be true? <hopes like loon>

PS excuse the familiarity. You do know me. I have namechanged recently!

morethanpotatoprints Mon 25-Mar-13 13:31:23

Grants

Never mind, the people in Knutsford can afford to have it flown in, surely. grin

Just kidding, I was brought up not so far away. smile

WildThong Mon 25-Mar-13 13:38:23

Is the snow coming back this weekend then? We still have a lot on the ground (south west from Glasgow). This winter seems never ending.

Just having a cup of tea and I'll have a look at the models smile

It's been sunny today, with a few very light snow flurries that never came to anything. Freezing cold but I have had 2 loads of washing dry on the line in the sun and wind!

BiddyPop Mon 25-Mar-13 15:05:01

OYBBK, is there any chance that the picture looks similar for Ireland, or any better?? We are travelling from east coast to west coast (middle of both) on Friday, and DH wants to use my car. I want to be sure my lil baby will survive!! (He has a volvo estate v my VW Golf - so I am not agreeing to this until later in the week).

ok, have really scoured them looking for significant changes.

First thing to note met office warnings for much of the NE for snow today and tomorrow. The activity seems to be pepping up rather.

scattered snow showers elsewhere.

Still a big question mark over Friday, latest model runs take the snow fest south away from the UK. (do the channel Islands need to be aware? perhaps)

And after that, signals are still for the cold to continue, perhaps not quite as cold. Less convincing signals for lots of precip for the week after Easter, but nevertheless, they are still there and its something we need to watch.

Going into fantasy land (second week of Easter), maybe, just maybe the first tiny hints of a warm up. Nothing dramatic showing yet.

will see if I can try to answer some more specific questions now.

Lindyhopper29 Mon 25-Mar-13 15:13:31

No snow here!

Brambles shock how many times have they had to eat the boys? do we need to let the authorities know?

Hester, the biggest thing i'm looking for at the moment is a warm up over eastern Europe, until that starts to really happen in earnest I think we are going to struggle, theres no real warm air for the HP to pull in at the moment.

Biddy, its a bit of a question mark at the moment as to exactly where the precip will go. GFS is taking the southern edge of Ireland into the precip and it could be snow. Out of interest, how did you do out of the fri/sat snow event?

wildthong, you could catch some more this weekend, I certainly wouldnt rule it out.

poledra, I certainly would keep an eye on forecasts closer to the time!

HesterShaw Mon 25-Mar-13 15:44:09

Hopefully it will happen soon. I'm freezing!

I read recently (incidentally it was in Deborah Devonshire's autobiography ^Wait for Me^) that the Mitford girls all attended the death of their mother in late spring 1963 on the Scottish island of Inchkenneth. It was approaching the Solstice and she said it was still absolutely freezing shock

LillethTheCat Mon 25-Mar-13 15:48:46

Well Im in that warning for today and we've had no snow. Its the wind that makes it so cold.

Ive given up for any hopes of warm weather now sad

lilleth, the warnings are for the evening and into tonight and where the snow ends up will be rather hit and miss.

brrr hester.

nellyjelly Mon 25-Mar-13 17:06:39

Easter in the Lake District. snow or no?

Marne Mon 25-Mar-13 17:12:57

No snow here in the sw smile, had a few flakes this morning but nothing major, so cold though, had to dress like i was trecking to the north pole just to take the dog for a walk.

Was watching the news earlier and someone said 'experts are saying there may be a heat wave towards the end of spring, when ever that is' so when is the end of spring? <crossing fingers that its may the 20th when we go on holiday>

GotMyGoat Mon 25-Mar-13 17:37:26

Where's Aslan when you need him?

41notTrendy Mon 25-Mar-13 17:51:10

nellyjelly us too, watching with interest to see how things pan out for Fri and beyond!!

nellyjelly Mon 25-Mar-13 18:02:37

41. Hoping for lovely snow on hills but clear roads!

Nellyjelly dunno. (Yet)

colleysmill Mon 25-Mar-13 18:30:50

I'm taking no chances for next weekend (going to Camperfest in Chester) - ski jackets and fleece pjs packed (just hoping ds's new ones pitch up in time) and extra thick socks.

Im really hoping no more snow though

I'm curious who these 'experts' are Marne. One thing to note is that the sea temperatures are said to be significantly below average for March (I've not seen the data to back that up) I'm curious as to the effect that will have on our spring and on our weather (if despite that we did have a heat wave, would we end up with interesting weather because of the thermal contrast - unsure, will mull over in the bath)

LineRunnyEgg Mon 25-Mar-13 19:23:32

I've just stacked some cardboard boxes around the back kitchen door to insulate it, it's that cold.

HesterShaw Mon 25-Mar-13 19:31:57

I think if we get a sudden hot spell interesting things will happen in the marine world and we'll also get some very dense coastal fog on hot days. The sea will be freezing until about the end of June.

Ps the experts are the DM!

Actually DH who lectures in oceanography and stuff came home today saying "they" say there's going to be a heatwave. He wasn't sure who they were....

LineRunnyEgg Mon 25-Mar-13 19:35:31

Is the Gulf Steam still ok? <whimpers>

Marne Mon 25-Mar-13 20:06:47

Yes, im not sure who the experts are or who 'they' are. Just repeating what heard on the news earlier, we all know its hard to say what theweather will do in the coming months or even weeks but we can all hope.

The weather we have had in the past year has already caused so much damage, looking at the fields next to us and the farmers have been unable to plant crops (usualy this time of year the rape seed is almost out and the fields are green, all i can see is mud and brown) sad.

Sea Fog was the only interesting thing I could come up with if we get that sort of temperature differential!

Marne hope is always good and goodness know our farmers and everyone in general need that at the moment.

Linegg, I think it's ok.......

LineRunnyEgg Mon 25-Mar-13 20:40:58

My dear old dad is on one of those western craggy islands and having an even worse time than me. Will he have a warm April, kitten?

41notTrendy Mon 25-Mar-13 20:41:10

nellyjelky totally. When we booked it I envisaged clear crisp days with a bit of warm sun. Daffodils and lambs. Now I think we'll be lucky if we get there! Scrabble and Mr Men DVDs on standby...

Not to start with at least lineegg, who know after!!!

ChippingInIsEggceptional Mon 25-Mar-13 20:49:56

It has been FREEZING here today. Bitterly cold and a biting wind.

Love it smile

(Mad I know)

digerd Mon 25-Mar-13 21:03:20

I remember in the last 10 years, not the actual year, that we had our summer in April and that was it. It might have been the year we had an Indian Summer, but too tired to check my diaries.
Also some recent time ago, I did read that the Gulf Stream is not what it used to be.
At least it was dry today, but didn't get above +1. I'm feeling sorry for the Flora .

digerd Mon 25-Mar-13 21:05:55

ps
and the farmers and lambs born in the snow and frozen to death. Saw it on TV today and shed a tear.

mikey9 Mon 25-Mar-13 21:06:05

Linerunnyegg - Yes - the Gulf Stream is alive and well and has been keeping the North of Scotland in pleasant weather almost all winter.......

Don't think the weather in Arran (and bits of SW SCotland) represents anything like the rest of Scotland - the snowy bad stuff appears to be amazingly localised.

Sunny yet again North of Inverness......

If the Gulf stream does go pear shaped we are well and truly stuffed....

mikey9 Mon 25-Mar-13 21:07:56

If you think I am joking about the weather up here - I cycled the 15 miles each way to work (well wrapped up - it isn't warm...) and it really was dry and very pleasant - grin

Am I right in thinking this will be another year of poor crops and high food prices then?

I was looking at all the frosty cherry blossom pictures and thinking the fruit trees can't have much chance. Is there time for other crops to recover?

retrorita Mon 25-Mar-13 21:13:04

On the news earlier, I heard food prices are set to rise because of poor weather TeWiSavesTheDay

Pants.

Come on spring <prays>

Marne Mon 25-Mar-13 21:35:56

Food prices will rise and i think they said (today on the news) that fuel prices will rise too sad, going by whats happening here (with farming) there wont be many crops this year, most of the fields near us have nothing planted in them, they have been poughed and thats it sad, they are waiting and hoping for good weather so they can plant something.

I also saw the sheep being dug out on the news today, so sad sad.

Saltire Mon 25-Mar-13 21:56:34

Marne - where I am in North Yorkshire we could grow rice as the fields haave been waterlogged for ...oh about a year now grin

digerd Tue 26-Mar-13 07:12:38

Any excuse to keep increasing prices!
We have been lucky with our < temperate> climate compared with continental coutries on the same longitude. Trouble is with ours, is that it is not consistant.

leesmum Tue 26-Mar-13 07:20:34

Woke up to snow in Manchester!!! Everything is just about covered and still coming down..nice little surprise smile

Snowing again here in North Yorkshire.

It was surreal yesterday, took DS2 to school and drove through snow drifts the height of the car buy the fields were green. It's not the amount of snow that has fallen but the wind that has caused problems here.

McKayz Tue 26-Mar-13 07:34:31

Its trying to snow where I am in North Yorkshire. There is a light dusting.

I just want it to be dry in Cornwall for our holiday.

Meglet Tue 26-Mar-13 07:57:13

This time of year I'm usually in a mad rush to get any last seeds in. But this year I haven't planted a thing yet.

I've started feeding the birds too. I was worried about the new parents and baby birds not being able to find food, so I'm being bankrupted by the greedy things hmm.

V. quickly there are still some hints in gfs of a warm up the second week of April.

Friday, the far south should be aware of the risk of snow.

more later, ran out of time this morning.

GloriaSmud Tue 26-Mar-13 08:34:53

Here (on holiday) in Porthmadog, we reached 5c yesterday and it was quite warm in the sun and out of the wind. We've woken up this morning to a snow flurry - surprising really as we're right on the coast here.
I'll look forward to Spring starting that 2nd week of April!

LineRunnyEgg Tue 26-Mar-13 11:12:18

Im am very glad to hear that the Gulf Stream is not disrupted. I watched The Day After Tomorrow.

HesterShaw Tue 26-Mar-13 12:12:02

Oh yes The Day After Tomorrow. A film firmly grounded in meteorological fact grin

LineRunnyEgg Tue 26-Mar-13 13:50:25

I am easily led. grin

leesmum We have had light flurries on and off all day, but not enough to lie. Not Fair!

One of my favourite films grin

digerd Tue 26-Mar-13 15:16:52

S.Herts
The sun peeped out for a second this afternoon to say hello and then disappeared just as quickly. Turned a bit shy, I think. Another dry day so far, and sun gone from the grass, but iced over on the bridge over canal.
Reached the dizzy heights of +2 degrees.

digerd Tue 26-Mar-13 15:18:49

opps
snow gone from grass , not sun < still in shock from seeing it>

sun envy

It feels like the weather has been switched off here to leave precisely nothing. Grey, 1C, and dry. Its as though someone forgot to programme anything in for us.

HesterShaw Tue 26-Mar-13 15:39:36

I have just been looking at the forecast for next week. Apart from the obvious factor of extreme cold, it doesn't look too bad. Dry at least anyway.

Except in SW Cornwall where it looks like we'll be the sole area of the country lashed by a nonstop easterly gale. Bah. Even high pressures bring strong wind. Unimpressed I am angry

McKayz Tue 26-Mar-13 15:47:35

I'm in Newquay for a fortnight from Friday. I am ignoring the weather now sad

HesterShaw Tue 26-Mar-13 15:52:20

Oh Newquay will be fine I expect. Different coast.

Cold though.....

Looking very much drier on the GFS enembles now for the vast majority as Hester says. Cold though.

leesmum Tue 26-Mar-13 17:07:32

Yeah Manky we has a covering this morning but disappeared my midday, had flakes on and off all day, some great big chunks too and an icy wind, am wrapping up to venture to shops its my wedding anniversary today and I forgot!! Dh bought me some lovely pressies and I felt well tight....gonna have to get some snide wine from corner shop smile

mirryma Tue 26-Mar-13 17:48:05

I walked our dog on the water meadows and did some gardening. Snow all gone in Stamford,Lincolnshire.

nellyjelly Tue 26-Mar-13 18:02:31

Snow in Manchester? Where? Not in Trafford thats for sure.

Mirage Tue 26-Mar-13 19:00:26

I've been working outside all day today and it felt warmer than yesterday,still bitter but the wind had dropped and we saw the sun.I'm feeling more positive as my field appears to be drying up nicely and there is no rain or snow forecast.

The dds are going to a Pony Club bunnyhunt and picnic on Saturday,so hope it stays dry for that,they've been looking forward to it since last year.

HesterShaw Tue 26-Mar-13 20:37:03

I'm going to be out on the water for four hours tomorrow. I think I will have to wear everything I own.

LillethTheCat Tue 26-Mar-13 20:54:48

Good we like dry. Rather it was a bit warmer, but given the last few days and the way the forecast was I will stick with dry and cold.

digerd Tue 26-Mar-13 21:11:41

Me too. But am getting fed up wearing my eskimo outfit everyday walking little dog .

HesterShaw Tue 26-Mar-13 21:35:12

Is it you who lives in Germany, digerd or am I thinking of someone else?

Woken to a slight dusting of snow this morning, with more drifting down. It's not heavy so it wont last, but its enough to make the view look decidedly wintry.

digerd Wed 27-Mar-13 07:06:48

Hester
I used to live in Germany, but now back in S.Herts.

Had -1 in the night here, and woke all bright eyed and bushy-tailed for a change this morning and found the sun shining. Looks spring-like today. <can't believe it>

digerd Wed 27-Mar-13 07:09:34

ps
And the doves are cooing again!

ajandjjmum Wed 27-Mar-13 07:43:36

Snowing in the West Mids this morning - starting to stick - urgh!!!!

41notTrendy Wed 27-Mar-13 07:58:40

Snow here in Nottm. Very lightly now thankfully.

Snowing fairly heavily now and starting to stick.

GloriaSmud Wed 27-Mar-13 08:29:45

Porthmadog signing in once again. I think the place has a weather system of its own as yet again, we have -1 temps, bright sunshine and a snow flurry going on, all at the same time!

Eased off to just a flurry now, they kids were very excited for 5 minutes. We haven't seen much of the white stuff here this winter!

BiddyPop Wed 27-Mar-13 11:24:34

Sorry OYBBK, I asked and then got pulled into work mania.

Fri/Sat we had flooding!! Really really heavy rain (local river was a good 3 foot higher than usual) and back garden "lake" appeared again (needs really heavy rain for that).

We've had snow flurries since Monday. Yesteray and this morning, we had "icing sugar" type snow settled on cars/ground, but that has melted as morning progresses both days. I am about to go to a meeting in another building and it is snowing again. But generally light falls - short and not terribly dense (certainly not blizzard white-outs).

I know some cars coming into the city have been a lot whiter than ours though. And others around the south-west and north-west of the city have been much more badly affected.

LillethTheCat Wed 27-Mar-13 14:13:56

Been snowing quite heavy here (North Yorks/Co Durham), though its not laying, if anything it's washing the snow away so it must be wet snow.

digerd Wed 27-Mar-13 18:20:17

Spring didn't last long, infact at 9am as I walked out the door to the taxi dressed in my dancing gear, it had clouded over and was freezing.

3pm and dressed in my eskimo outfit to take little dog for her walk, I couldn't believe how warm I was. Was also wearing a new pair of wind,cold and waterproof mittens, which were fab and kept my hands and fingers toasty warm.
This cold spell and getting little dog has cost me a fortune.
I was warmer outside than indoors now < without my eskimo outfit on>

rainbowsprite1 Wed 27-Mar-13 18:30:14

Snow flurrys here all day in south IOM but the grass outside is now green for the 1st time in days, but it has been changing from green to white all day. On hills it is still thick snow.

I have outed myself so badly on this thread I think I'm going to have to namechange... the IOM is a small place smile

digerd Thu 28-Mar-13 06:50:36

S Herts
Repeat of yesterday - sunny already. -1 last night.
Is it ever going to get warmer?

Bramblesinafield Thu 28-Mar-13 07:14:09

Snow yesterday here in Cheshire. Looks good today so far!

Bramblesinafield Thu 28-Mar-13 07:14:59

Kitty, what are your thoughts for Cornwall from 5th April. <cries & hides swimsuit>

Morning all.

Tomorrow is looking pretty positive in terms of lack of snow, just a little grazing southern counties I think with maybe some snow showers in the NE too.

A pretty dry and cold Easter weekend, but where sunshine pops up it could feel comparatively pleasant in sheltered areas.

Next week is looking pretty dry too. NE and SE being a bit vulnerable to snow/rain showers though. GFS shows Day time temps generally a little warmer than of late with the snow/rain in the NE. Don't get carried away at the garden centre because it shows some sharpish ground frosts where night skies clear. ECMWF I'm afraid prefers a colder scenario with snow showers in the SE.

On Fri 4th GFS brings in a change to more unsettled weather with plenty of rain about. It suggests temps not really stunning but the week beginning the 7th looks like it maybe a bit milder with temps perhaps grazing double figures in places later that week. ECMWF keeps the cold going. So there is still some uncertainty as to how long the cold will spin on for.

To summarise, with GFS going for slightly less cold but dry week (away from the NE) followed by unsettled weather and ECMWF firmly in the staying cold camp and bringing in some snow showers in the SE early next week.

Hope that makes sense (had this much > < sleep last night)

Thank you kitten!

Hope you get some rest today.

LillethTheCat Thu 28-Mar-13 07:59:07

Thanks for the update. even though there is lots of talk about snow in my area NE

Hope you get some rest soon.

when are they looking at lilleth?

interesting effect going on with my arrows. managed to cross them out!

LillethTheCat Thu 28-Mar-13 12:24:35

You just mentioned NE a few times in your last post regarding snow. I was going by that really.

NE and SE being a bit vulnerable to snow/rain showers though

generally a little warmer than of late with the snow/rain in the NE

slightly less cold but dry week (away from the NE)

ohhhh, I thought there were general rumours about it grin

digerd Thu 28-Mar-13 16:10:17

S.Herts
Milder today here +6 in the shade. Had a burst of sun an hour ago - it clouded over about 10am. Didn't need my eskimo outfit, and took gloves off as hands too warm in normal leather ones!!
Sky now looking ominous in parts.+4

rainbowsprite1 Fri 29-Mar-13 00:46:18

OYBBK I heard today that the jet stream had split in 2, one bit to the north & one to the south, hence the cold weather. Is this true? Also if the jet stream is regularly disturbed does that have any effect on ocean currents, eg the gulf stream?

HesterShaw Fri 29-Mar-13 00:58:09

Am I right in thinking the jet stream is a couple of miles up in the sky rather than in the sea though?

cestlesautres Fri 29-Mar-13 01:02:46

Oooh would like that explained pls.

Will have a chat about the jet stream this evening smile (busy day!)

digerd Fri 29-Mar-13 08:58:06

S.Herts

3rd day of -1 in the night and a sunny blue sky in the morning. +10 out but sun shining on the flower pot which houses my sensor. Definitely feels milder out.
Sky still blue, so hope it stays longer than the last 2 days.

digerd Fri 29-Mar-13 12:54:59

S.Herts

Still sunny, though more clouds now. Sun been off off the flowerpot sensor housing for 2 hours now and says 6.9 degrees in the shade.
Wind was still chilly at 10am.

Evening all smile

Ok the jet stream is a river of air at around 7 miles ish high up. It flows at around 100mph but elements of it can accelerate up to 200mph. When it is fast it tends to be stronger and doesn't meander around. when it is weak it can meander. It can split if you get an upper level low which it has to try and get past.

The position and strength of the jet stream are somewhat determined by the pressure gradient across the Atlantic north to southwards. This is often measured as the pressure difference between Iceland and the Azores (or sometimes Iberia). If the pressure difference is greater than normal it is known a positive NOA (north Atlantic oscillation) if it less than normal it is a negative NOA.

At the moment we are in a negative NOA. The jet stream is weak and further south than usual, still running through the Mediterranean . So we are stuck on the 'cold' side. This set up tends to result in blocked patterns where high pressure dominates, bringing in cold from Eastern Europe rather than the usual more mild westerlies.

At the moment a warm up seems quite gradual and we need to look towards the east to watch how Europe warms up. It's coming, slowly!

rainbowsprite1 Sat 30-Mar-13 00:49:48

Thank you for such an informative answer OYBBK. Something to think about as I chill out after another evening shift at work.

Bramblesinafield Sat 30-Mar-13 08:16:16

That is very interesting oybbk. I still live in hope for Cornwall in a week's time, but wouldn't be British if I didn't!

41notTrendy Sat 30-Mar-13 08:19:13

OYBBK, thank you so much for sharing your knowledge. I find it fascinating. <still a geography graduate at heart>

You are welcome smile

If you look at GFS for next week Cornwall may not be too bad at times, perhaps a bit of a mix of rain and sun but relatively warm at times. In fact that could be said for much of the UK though Scotland seems to bear the brunt of the wetter weather according to GFS. In central England GFS shows temps grazing the mid teens by the middle of the week.

If you look at ECMWf, it prefers to keep us in the freezer.

HesterShaw Sat 30-Mar-13 09:00:18

That's really interesting OYBBK. I always thought the NAO was something to do with ocean currents. Now I know.

Looking at Cornwall, if this cuurent easterly howl comes round northerly as I'm seeing it might, I for one will be happy. Brambles, are you on the north or south coast next week?

Bramblesinafield Sat 30-Mar-13 09:33:53

We're right down on at the bottom, still northern edge, but south south south! Got a week to go - looks pleasant enough this week, but hope it warms up a bit or I will need thermals under my wetsuit!

HesterShaw Sat 30-Mar-13 09:43:14

North coast still then grin

Do not under any circumstances go in the sea. The water's 8 degrees! If you do, make sure it's a 5/3 or even 5/4 wetsuit with fully taped seams, and that you have a thermal rashvest, hoot, gloves and boots.

It looks sunny, but with a bit of a northerly/northeasterly "breeze". It'll be cold!

digerd Sat 30-Mar-13 10:32:01

S.Herts
+1 last night so 2 degrees higher. Sun came out about 9am. 10 am, it was sunny and sleeting tiny hailstones and wind felt colder than yesterday.
< oh well back into my eskimo outfit this afternoon>

We have come to the conclusion that I am cursed. Everytime I go out on a driving lesson it starts snowing.hmm

At least it didn't stick today!

LillethTheCat Sat 30-Mar-13 10:46:06

Woke up to it snowing, but coming home this morning it was 4 degrees at 10AM with the sun shining bright. <starts to get excited>

digerd Sat 30-Mar-13 11:32:29

S.Herts
Hmm! Sky now overcast and sun gone< grizzle face>

Delatron Sat 30-Mar-13 15:53:12

Thanks for the detail about the jet stream OTBBK. I have become obsessed with the jet stream since it was apparently the cause of our recent bad summers.

The fact that it is further south than normal doesn't mean that it is going to get stuck over us all summer again does it? I guess I am speculating in a wildly pessimistic fashion!

I am going with the theory cold spring equals hot summer...

digerd Sat 30-Mar-13 16:01:10

S.Herts
My luck changed as at 3pm for little dog's afternoon walk it was warm and sunny. Took gloves off and undid the zip on my jacket and had it open!!
It remained sunny until 10 mins after getting home, when it sleeted and sky is still overcast.

I reckon we will have sleet/snow/hailstone April showers this year.
Reminds me of an old song " When April showers come your way - something endeding in May", old brain forgotten it, although the tune is still in my head.

digerd Sat 30-Mar-13 16:03:11

oops ending

Delatron, if only I knew! The NOA does look like it may go positive soon. Maybe that is a ray of hope to cling on to!

Delatron Sat 30-Mar-13 19:13:17

I guess it's the million dollar question OYBBK. Will cling to any ray of hope!

I did hear the spring of 76 was very cold then that amazing heatwave. I guess once Europe heats up then things could improve significantly.

CaptainSweatPants Sat 30-Mar-13 19:13:55

have I missed what might be happening in the south east next saturday 6th?

digerd Sat 30-Mar-13 20:38:09

I remember the summer of 1976, but was working full-time. We were a nation of brown tanned skinned people in shorts .

Can't remember the Spring.
2006 was even hotter and more humid - or it could be because I was 30 years older and retired.

HesterShaw Sat 30-Mar-13 21:16:39

A tanned person in shorts? I'd have been an itchy, rashy, freckly person skulking in the shade!

digerd Sat 30-Mar-13 21:36:03

I do that now, but then I was all for looking tanned and loved subathing with no side effects.
In 1985, however, I did get a black melanoma on my arm, caught just in time.
And in 1998, in May in Majorca, I got a heat rash on my shins which left them permanently mottled looking from sun damage.

I keep everything covered now , even in the heat as not a pretty sight anymore.

HesterShaw Sat 30-Mar-13 21:48:17

sad

I have something called polymorphic light eruption. It's really not pretty!

GloriaSmud Sun 31-Mar-13 07:30:16

Lowest temp overnight was a chilly -5.6c at 6.50am, looks like it's going to be a lovely day though.
Happy Easter everyone!

digerd Sun 31-Mar-13 07:59:42

S.Herts
-3 here so getting colder. Clear sky, so if stays like it all day, it will be forgiven<smile face>
Happy Easter.

leesmum Sun 31-Mar-13 08:38:42

Beautiful sunny Easter morning here in Mancland but very cold, have a lovely day ladies smile

GloriaSmud Sun 31-Mar-13 19:05:03

To go with our cold March, today has been the coldest Easter Sunday on record according to the metoffice.

I've managed (after several attempts and a lot some swearing under my breath as I'm not very 'with it' when it comes to technology!) to upload some photos here from our rather snowy holiday in Wales last week.

ItsOkayItsJustMyBreath Sun 31-Mar-13 20:56:40

<Long time lurker and admirer>

OYBBK you have just made a very cold woman a little bit happy with your latest post! Now, tell me, is there anything we can do to encourage the NOA to go positive like all blow in the same direction at the same time?

HesterShaw Sun 31-Mar-13 20:59:05

Blimey Gloria, I take it that was north Wales? Wow! Reminds me of a winter holiday I had near Aviemore once, but that was in December!

GloriaSmud Sun 31-Mar-13 21:26:20

Hester ~ we were staying on the coast at Porthmadog and did some travelling into some of the more northern bits and the north coast. I was trying to upload a picture of the blizzard we had when we went to Llandudno but it wouldn't upload. Ho that was a cold day ~ I think we managed 3 hours there and decided that was enough for that day!

I've had to issue an urgent forecast for today here sometimes the weather can really take us by surprise.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Mon 01-Apr-13 00:24:26

Thank you OYBBK.

HesterShaw Mon 01-Apr-13 15:48:11

So.

I have read the monthly forecast, with the required pinch of salt. By the middle of April, "they" are saying that the wind may swing round from its current stubborn east and east north east to the north. And this, "they" are saying may be a precursor to it then coming round to a W / SW direction.

Is this the most likely cause of it getting milder? Is it a case, do we think, that any warming will be accompanied by Atlantic lows and the accompanying mizzle and strong wind?

Just trying to decide whether I'd prefer it to stay cold and dry than to disintegrate into mild and wet <ponders>

digerd Mon 01-Apr-13 16:55:58

S.Herts
The cloud did break up about an hour ago! Hope it doesn't clear in the night to give us well below 0 again.
Wind still bitter. But getting good use out of my winter sales eskimo outfits.

Bought some lighter weight rain jackets and boots in the end of sale for the rainy summer to come, if anything like last year.
My little dog is costing me a fortune, but loving it!

GloriaSmud Mon 01-Apr-13 21:34:42

sad article about what farmers are facing once the snow melts in Wales from the Guardian. Awful for all concerned.

Hester, not necc, we can still have warmer weather with a blocking high if it shifts in the right direction. I need to have a proper look but not tonight, fried brain!

Oh Gloria, that is truly awful sad

mikey9 Mon 01-Apr-13 22:22:09

Just had 4 days of the most Glorious continuous sunshine in the Highlands (no - I am still not joking....) - coffee in the front garden - kids outside getting some Vitamin D alll wknd [Grin]
Glad all the Easter Holidaymakers up from the SOuth have had some good weather - and the Skiing in the Cairngorms is apparently the best in 25 years (the snow is on the mountains - non - and not a sign of it down where people live!).
Still watching out for wildfires though.......

HesterShaw Mon 01-Apr-13 23:30:34

What a hideous situation in Wales. I wonder if anyone could explain why more wasn't done to try and get as much livestock down off the hills once the forecast had been issued a couple of days before the storm hit. I'd also venture that, if severe winters are becoming more usual, then perhaps sheep farmers need to let the rams in with the ewes later to ensure a later lambing season. I remember the Easter of 2000 on Exmoor when hundreds of lambs died when there was a similar late snowfall, but it wasn't anywhere near as severe as this.

But then, I'm not a farmer obviously.

It's so terrible sad

I would imagine they don't have enough indoor lambing space. I am from NZ, where lambing + snow is very common! And the farmers I know have huge barns designed to have lots of individual space for the ewes.

They do still get caught out sometimes though.

TeWe I'm sure that's it and apparently the tracks have just been too deep with mud too to move machinery around. Pretty hideous.

HesterShaw Tue 02-Apr-13 10:13:52

I guess so.

I wasn't having a go at any farmers, just so we're clear. I was just wondering.

Still think they should maybe time lambing for later though. We got used to years of mild winters in the UK, and now, for the moment at least, they seem to be over.

Anyway, this is Weather not Farming.

EggBasket Tue 02-Apr-13 10:23:57

OYBBK any signs of what might happen next week? We're off to the New Forest on Friday, the weekend looks alright, wondering if next week will be mild/cold/wet/dry before I pack every item of clothing I own smile

digerd Tue 02-Apr-13 10:54:37

S. Herts
Lots of sun but that WIND is colder than ever.
My newspaper said the cold weather will continue until 11th April, when it should get milder.

digerd Tue 02-Apr-13 14:12:29

Just heard the bad news on TV for tomorrow - snow flurries and even colder and cloudy, in SE.

Just when I am walking 5 minutes in my dancing clothes to the hall at 9am.
< I'm thinking which eskimo outfit can I wear that I can also dance in, until I warm up?>grrrr

The rest of this week and into the weekend looks pretty ok really, just the odd flurry and sunshine here and there.

Next week looks as though it will stay above zero by day but GFS shows it turning really quite unsettled and wet I'm afraid. Mind you, it had this week unsettled in the in up to it, so we shall see, but if you have outside stuff to do these hols I'd choose this week to do it.

HesterShaw Tue 02-Apr-13 22:28:22

Looks like the depressions are going to be let loose at last.

I'd rather it remained cold and dry sad

Fraid so, looks to turn awful on Tuesday.

And I think we should utterly ignore the end of the gfs model run for the 19th April as it shows snow far too far into fantasy model time.

HesterShaw Wed 03-Apr-13 10:55:50

Bugger. I was hoping for a good second week of the holidays seeing as the first week was arctic and too cold for anything much sad

WildThong Wed 03-Apr-13 11:10:33

badkitten over here please!

We're going to Edinburgh Zoo next Friday. It's always Baltic there anyway because of the hill, but any idea what the weather will be like?

Friday in 10 days? I'd wrap up warm. GFS shows northerly winds, temps in the low to mid single digits and perhaps some showers.

WildThong Wed 03-Apr-13 11:54:49

Great sad

WildThong Wed 03-Apr-13 11:55:03

Sorry, thanks!

TheSilveryPussycat Thu 04-Apr-13 00:24:31

Just returned from London to the North East. Down south the wind from Siberia was bitter and chilled to the bone - up here not so bad, still cold but little wind. Never thought I'd be writing that April climate in NE is (relatively) warm compared with London!

digerd Thu 04-Apr-13 09:19:22

S.Herts

Don't wish to know that < fed up face> with bitterly wind which has got worse these last few days>

johnworf Thu 04-Apr-13 09:33:11

Eagerly watches thread with alert set when 'warmer weather' gets posted wink

Oh WOW! GFS has pulled a blinder today. Showing temps of 16C quite widespread next Sunday the 14th. And not wet, though wet knocks on the door. And on the Monday <can hardly breathe for excitement> there's a small favoured spot in the east that reaches 19C.
Pleasepleaseplease be right.

digerd Thu 04-Apr-13 10:29:47

Just got back from doggie walkies, and wind is still bitter. My ears need airing, but will freeze off if not covered. grrrr.

I'm not looking at the other models, I prefer to live in blissful hope.

usualsuspect Thu 04-Apr-13 10:32:50

19C?

<does a happy dance>

HesterShaw Thu 04-Apr-13 10:36:03

CAN IT POSSIBLY BE TRUE? shockshockshock

Shall I tell you what I'm wearing outside today? No? I'm telling you anyway.....underwear (obv), tights, longjohns, skipants, thermal vest T shirt, microfleece, jumper, normal fleece, SKI BLOODY JACKET AND SKI MITTENS, hat and scarf.

I have forgotten what "warm" is and am still suspicious that any "warmth" will mean SW winds, mizzle and humidity of approx 100% grin

MegBusset Thu 04-Apr-13 10:44:16

OYBBK how's it looking for the south in the middle-to-end of next week?

Pascha Thu 04-Apr-13 10:44:21

Am i in the small favoured spot? Please?

digerd Thu 04-Apr-13 12:35:17

S. Herts
Dammed weather. It sleeted later this morning as I had to go to the corner shop.
Now it's snowing !! grrrr.

digerd Thu 04-Apr-13 12:37:51

ps
Weather forecast on TV said it would be milder due to a low pressure thingy at the weekend. I do hope they are right - must do some gardening.

digerd Thu 04-Apr-13 12:41:13

pps
They didn't say it would be raining? Will it? < can't get myself out of this grumpy mood>

HesterShaw Thu 04-Apr-13 12:42:20

digerd, take your umbrella then smile

It's been sunny, windy and very cold here today.

I have had 2 loads of washing on the line, and my fingers froze hanging the wet washing out!

digerd Thu 04-Apr-13 13:02:03

Hester
Very funny. I don't ,<can't> do gardening with an umbrella in one hand.
Anyway, at my age, it's all about comfort and joy. I want to do my gardening on a nice warm dry day < stamps feet>, unrestricted by being all bundled up in bulky clothes, with a cooling breeze on my bare neck. Ah, what memories. Big smile.

HesterShaw Thu 04-Apr-13 13:06:08

I know <wistful>

It was warm once. For a week. Last July....

Madsometimes Thu 04-Apr-13 13:20:23

Sleet <sigh>
Not settling, but it's so hard to know what to do with the dc in the holidays when it's so cold.
I suppose it's good for children to be bored. Am thinking swimming later on.

digerd Thu 04-Apr-13 13:30:23

Well, I'm going to bed for my after lunch fortywinks - the joys of being retired. It's still snowing but not settling.

Hope it has stopped afterwards as little dog wants her 2nd walkies, but last time she didn't like it snowing, nor I, and we returned after 5 minutes.

Meg perhaps wet, depending on the position of some Atlantic low pressures, but hopefully warmer with temps maybe into the low teens.

Favoured spot (which I'm sure will change as this is looking waaaay into the future and its just one model) is shown by GFS to be around the Wash.

NeverKnowinglyUnderstood Thu 04-Apr-13 14:01:37

oh lovely kitten it is ds1's birthday sleep over 15th April I was really hoping to do a sneaky bonfire with marshmallows... do you think this will be possible

Oh that is hilarious, just had a look at the GFS precip modelling for the 15th. Although it is sticking with the lovely warm temps it has the entire country blanketed with heavy rain, sure that wasn't shown in the earlier run.

Stupid stupid model.

In the mean time, who's enjoying the yet more delightful snow we have down here in the south?

LillethTheCat Thu 04-Apr-13 14:32:42

So we're in for it to get warmer, but wet. No surprise there then.

thegriffon Thu 04-Apr-13 14:47:54

Would be happy with warmer but wet after today's freezing dog walk with wind and hail in my face.

Pascha Thu 04-Apr-13 15:09:55

sad The Wash is far too north for me. We have had non-stop flurries of snow/sleet/rain since mid morning in South Kent, only just brightening up now.

gnushoes Thu 04-Apr-13 15:59:51

OYBBK we have a week's holiday from this w/e somewhere in the UK-- we live on south coast -- where could we go where weather might not be too awful? Fed up with being cold, OK with some rain but preferably not continuous and torrential. I don't ask much do I?
thank you.

Eep, gnu, that's a scary thing you are asking me. I'd hate to be responsible for you having a pants holiday because I got it wrong.

It's likely that every where will have rain at times I'm afraid with the winds quite likely,to veer from the north through to the sw through the week so you can't even rely on rain shadows. Unfortunately GFS and ECMWF have very different positioning of low pressures mid week otherwise I'd give you a best guess with a strong caveat.

gnushoes Thu 04-Apr-13 17:54:10

Thank you anyway! I'd read bits which suggested it might be pants absolutely anywhere -- and I wouldn't hold it against you if you suggested somewhere that was torrential whereas I could have gone somewhere it was merely mizzling. At this rate Borrowdale could be a dry option...
Sigh. So fed up with cold feet.

ChippingInIsEggceptional Thu 04-Apr-13 18:01:55

I loved the snow today - just wish it had settled!! I was like grin in the car! I wish we'd get more snow!!

funkybuddah Thu 04-Apr-13 21:22:31

So OYBBK I hate to ask but this rain everywhere does that mean what Ive seen so far for Weymouth next week is correct?

A wet and windy holiday for me (in a fecking caravan )

Its always lovely when we go to Weymouth in April apart from 1 day last year.

I guess our run of amazingly warm and bright UK holidays had to come to an end sometime.

Chipping with the greatest respect, I think you are a little bonkers grin snow is for winter!

Funky, at times, but it shouldn't be the whole week.i don't think.
If I absolutely had to pick somewhere for next week, my choice would be round the Norfolk broads I reckon, although I'm not sure what there is to do there other than walking on the beach!

ChippingInIsEggceptional Thu 04-Apr-13 22:20:08

OYBBK shock

... but yes, I'm probably the only nutter hoping for more snow in spring grin (though I wish the daffs would hide themselves before they all get ruined sad )

I love snow smile I love the way it looks so pretty when it's falling then makes everything look clean, fresh & tidy until it melts and makes a god awful mess

funkybuddah Thu 04-Apr-13 22:39:38

Thank you OYBBK

ChippinIn I also thought all the snow today was pretty, I would rather snow than rain buuuuut I am over the cold, I want to enjoy autumn/winter if it ever rolls aorund again

MegBusset Thu 04-Apr-13 22:46:24

Ironically, I live right by the Norfolk Broads but am going to Hampshire for a week from tomorrow. D'oh!

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Thu 04-Apr-13 23:42:25

Sterling work OYBBK. Any thoughts on the Ipswich area for next week gratefully received.

Startail Thu 04-Apr-13 23:49:43

No spring in Malvern today or yesterday it's bitterly cold with a stuff icy breeze to make it even colder. To top it off we got snow flurries.
Some of the trees are trying half heartedly to flower and they look very sad and halfhearted as if they have changed their minds.

MegBusset Sat 06-Apr-13 15:55:19

Absolutely glorious in Hampshire today. Blue sky, sun shining and a balmy 12 degrees grin

Startail Sat 06-Apr-13 23:48:09

Yes lovely here today, just in time for the DDs to go back to school.

digerd Sun 07-Apr-13 07:41:07

S.Herts

What??!! -3 in the night, frost on the grass, when yesterday was milder and thought Spring had arrived at last.
At least it's sunny. Daffs were about to burst into flower yesterday and camelia at last braved the weather and began to flower.
Hope the frost hasn't damaged the blooms/part open buds < not been out yet>

It's been gorgeous in places hasn't it smile make the most of it, all change Tuesday to April showers, heavy on the wet.

johnworf Sun 07-Apr-13 12:44:02

OYBBK do you think the rain might be in for the rest of April or is it a fleeting visit?

It does look like its going to hang around until towards the end of April at the very least (at which point my crystal ball runs out grin but I'm hopefully that there will be nice days dotted here and there.

I've taken the opportunity to put down nematodes against slugs today. I think that with the upcoming more seasonal temps and rain there might be a bit of a slug explosion! (Yuk at the unfortunate image that bought to mind)

digerd Sun 07-Apr-13 20:58:09

S.Herts
Turned into a very nice day. But after gardening, walking dog 3 times, and housework on my knees, I'm all in and aching all over.

My first Camelia flower that had been waiting so long to fully open had dropped off today, < sad face> That was the one I put a glove over to save it from the frosts.

digerd Sun 07-Apr-13 21:02:12

ps.
Now waiting for a rainy day to fertilize my 8 climbing roses on the day before. Should I do it Monday?

digerd Mon 08-Apr-13 09:29:44

S.Herts
Hazy sun so far , but nights still just above freezing.
Weather forecast says 10 degrees top today, and rain late evening.

So roses fertilizing today. Always done it in March, so late this year.

digerd Mon 08-Apr-13 18:06:57

S.Herts
Is it going to rain tonight? Doesn't look like it so far.
Fertilized my roses and need it to rain as hose pipe broken.

johnworf Mon 08-Apr-13 22:59:54

I'm sure the Beeb weather man mentioned southern (warmish?) breeze for the weekend? Dare I say some high pressure moving in?

Or did I just dream it?

digerd Tue 09-Apr-13 07:18:24

S.Herts
Just when I need it to rain, and it was supposed to, it didn't!!
+2 in the night so gradually creeping above freezing.

Grey skies atm

Delatron Tue 09-Apr-13 11:56:47

Yes I have heard there may be a 'warmer' front coming in for the weekend. Think it is bringing rain on Sat but I am crossing my fingers for Sunday (my DS birthday party) would love to be in the garden!. Metcheck is saying 18 degrees for Sun! But I know they are notoriously unreliable.

leesmum Tue 09-Apr-13 21:37:42

Ohhh are we getting some warmer days??....hmmm must shave legs and sort out chipped nail varnish on toes blush

Sunday is the day, hooray smile some rain or showers perhaps in the west and northern England.

Bit of snow to get through tomorrow in the Pennines perhaps, but keep your eyes firmly ahead!

Whojamaflip Tue 09-Apr-13 22:53:17

OYBBK me again....

I'm supposed to be taking 20 odd Beaver Scouts camping on Thursday night on the oxon/ glos border.

Please tell me the rain is going to miss us and that I'm not going to be dealing with 20 frozen kids on Friday morning confused

thanks thanks thanks

Delatron Wed 10-Apr-13 07:13:05

Thanks OYBBK. Can't wait for some warmer weather. Roll on Sun. Party in the garden. Hurrah! Must go find some nail polish for my toes...

Whojam, I think you may be plagued with some persistent light rain (heavier early on thursday evening) as your area sits under a wavering occluded front. Not too cold though, above freezing at least! Good luck!

NeverKnowinglyUnderstood Wed 10-Apr-13 09:14:41

Can I tell you a very strange thing???? The Sunday closest to my ds1's birthday had been glorious weather for the last 9 years. No matter the weather around it we have been able to have wonderfull parties outside. This year it seems freakier than other years. But hey bring on the sunshine this Sunday

digerd Wed 10-Apr-13 12:17:10

S.Herts
Emerged from the dance hall at 11.40 to find it sunny and mild.
Has Spring arrived at last and will it last?

Delatron Wed 10-Apr-13 18:21:49

That's strange Never, let's hope the phenomen continues. Will make a mental note to always have it on the Sunday!

NeverKnowinglyUnderstood Wed 10-Apr-13 20:38:44

I know delatron, was the same the year he was born, I was sat on a birthing ball in the garden for 4 hours in the sunshine and DH was gardening. A wierd and special feeling.

Delatron Thu 11-Apr-13 18:16:09

Hmm now it looks as though some reports are saying rain for Sun. Not happy!! I wish 'they' wouldn't get our hopes up with all this talk of 20 degrees unless they are really sure. I was looking forward to DS party being in the garden. ( Not sure who 'they' are).

GPS is less bullish about the rain than UKMO, so im hoping that UKMO will back off from the rain.

Delatron Thu 11-Apr-13 22:51:36

Thanks OYBBK, every forecast I am looking at is saying something different so good to hear which models are being used. BBC seem very cautious on the temperature compared to other forecasts.

digerd Fri 12-Apr-13 07:05:53

S. Herts.

Started pouring with rain at 6am and still at it. Hope it's stopped by 10 for little dog's walk as have a vet's appt at 4.30 and must have her thick coat looking clean and dry . Did buy her a onesie rain trouser suit, but couldn't walk in it and made a loud russling noise.

We were hoping to go to Peppa Pig World Sunday and it's now saying rain, will it change and be 28 degrees?!

Delatron Fri 12-Apr-13 09:43:33

All the forecasts have changed again. I think we are better off just looking out of the window on Sunday at this rate...At least it will be mild...

It does look like it will be showery or rainy on Sunday, but may well not reach the east. Temps best in the east of up to around 18c but in the west 10-14c seems quite likely. I've still not given up on it though.

digerd Fri 12-Apr-13 18:03:35

S.Herts

Certainly had the April showers todays, despite the sun taking until 2 pm to show itself.
There was a mugginess too which does not become my Asthma. Top temp today was 14. Now 11

johnworf Fri 12-Apr-13 22:38:52

I'm in the north west (Manchesterish) and it's poured down today. Met office is saying rain for the next 5 days.

Harrumph.

digerd Sat 13-Apr-13 17:08:07

S.Herts

It started really well this morning with blue sky and sunshine. Not for long though.
Drizzling at 3pm and now raining. Feels colder than yesterday.
11 degrees atm, but dismal and wet.

johnworf Sat 13-Apr-13 22:44:24

The met office is reporting the south east will be sunny with highs of up to 20 tomorrow. Great. I'm in the north west where we're getting more of the wet stuff hmm

OYBBK please say they're wrong and we're in with a chance of sunshine too. Pwease.

More of the wet stuff is likely sadly. Sorry sad

johnworf Sat 13-Apr-13 23:58:59

Bum. sad

::::sobs::::

digerd Sun 14-Apr-13 07:39:38

S.Herts
Again - like yesterday - the sky looks very promising with hazy sunshine.
But I now don't trust it to stay like this after yesterday's rapid wet turn around.

My newest Camelia is blooming now, just waiting for the others. <smile>

GloriaSmud Sun 14-Apr-13 08:14:00

Some lovely sunshine but a bit windy here (Leicester)
The frogs in my pond have decided Spring has officially started and have been busy overnight ~ another lot of frogspawn produced (4th lot this year!)

Jux Sun 14-Apr-13 12:29:36

We have no frog spawn in our pond <weep>

It is cold and windy but bright, here in Devon.

OYBBK, are we in for even more rain?

digerd Sun 14-Apr-13 13:44:42

I had 2 large clumps of frog spawn on my pond. But after filling it up, as had gone too far, they both sank downwards, so think they are frozen to death. Might be in suspended animation - forgotten the correct word.

Lovely warm sunny day so far, with a fresh breeze 21 atm.
S.Herts

Frogsporn might yet thaw out and survive?

digerd Sun 14-Apr-13 13:48:49

'frogspawn', but 'porn' is also apt!!

Jux on and off yes more rain, but I think in general nothing too drastic.

More concerning is that GFS trends to colder weather in a few days time and has a pretty cold end of the month in many of the ensemble members.

No porn in my pond sad but one super huge frog swimming about.

digerd Sun 14-Apr-13 16:06:51

Perhaps he's looking for a late season bit of 'porn'. Not much hope with just one on its own. Unless it's a female looking for a place to lay her fertilised eggs , <being that huge>

Mine must have happened during that mild week we had last month

Just got back from dogs walk at 3.30, and I was too hot in the sun. 21 degrees in shade still and a nice fresh breeze.
Probably a freak one off day here today.

digerd Sun 14-Apr-13 16:35:01

Too tired to look through my diaries, but remember one year, when it was so cold on May and August bank holidays people put their heating back on. It was only a few years ago.

Are we in for a cold Whitsun, I wonder.?

Another larger Camelia is beginning to open, but the one farthest away from the house, its buds have rotted.

TheNebulousBoojum Sun 14-Apr-13 16:37:25

Beautiful sunshine and warm here in Sussex, ble sky and small wispy clouds. Been like that all day.

Maybe it is a girl frog. That would be cool smile we've only had the pond a year but last year loads of frogs came to visit.

Poor camellia. sad so far so good on mine.

Jux Sun 14-Apr-13 21:11:33

My camellias have come out, but it's a bit windy for them so petals will be blown of quickly. The leaves are sickly looking though sad

Glad there's not too much rain expected. Shame about the cold. I was just getting used to the idea that I didn't need 4 or 5 layers when I went out!

Jux, have you tried feeding your camellia tea? Left over tea bags or leaves are ace for sickly camellias.

Jux Sun 14-Apr-13 23:53:37

Ooh, will do that. I drink tons of the stuff. Thank you.

digerd Mon 15-Apr-13 10:45:10

S. Herts
The mildest night so far @ 10 degrees. Lots of sun again , but the wind is colder.
Last April night temps were around +2/4 most of the time, and didn't get + 10 until 7th MAY !! Then went down again.

Just checked the frogspawn in pond and one clump has risen to the top. Can't see if they have developed any further , but hopeful they have survived.

My only Camelia planted in the ground the largest and oldest, has one bloom atm. <smile>

Jux Mon 15-Apr-13 13:33:28

I need a frog spawn cage to protect it from the fish - if any spawn appears this year <hopeful>

digerd Mon 15-Apr-13 15:36:03

One year the heron took most of my fish, only left the tiddlers, and haven't seen any yet so far this year.

This afternoon dog's walk was warmer than this morning, but only got to 18 degrees in the shade. < warm enough for me in the sun>.

digerd Mon 15-Apr-13 15:38:36

ps
Put my eskimo outfits away yesterday - have I tempted fate?

GloriaSmud Tue 16-Apr-13 10:37:52

Another lovely Spring day ~ we're up to 13.8c atm and the min last night was 9.5c. A lot of the tadpoles in the 2nd clump of frogspawn we had are beginning to look more 'tadpole shaped' now and will probably hatch in a few days. Unfortunately a lot of the ones from the 1st lot have died because of the cold a few weeks ago.

It's amazing what a bit of warmth can do ~ the hedges are beginning to look a bit more green and I saw my 1st butterfly of the year yesterday. I also had to evict a rather drowsy looking bumble bee from our kitchen this morning!

digerd Tue 16-Apr-13 13:21:27

S.Herts
16 degrees today, so going down each day. We have more cloud in SE today than the rest of the country apparently < annoyed face>

And my gloveless hands were really cold from the wind this morning at 11 am.

digerd Tue 16-Apr-13 21:11:14

S.Herts
It got sunnier in the afternoon and temp rose to 18 in the shade and was nice and warm .
The sheep in the field next to dog walk have little lambs now - so cute- and felt even more like Spring.

ChippingInLovesSpring Fri 19-Apr-13 19:45:12

Hello OYBBK are you around??

Just wondering if you've had time to have a look at what we might expect this weekend? Just trying to work out what to do with a guest I have staying and it's all a bit weather dependant smile

Chipping, should be fine til Sunday evening when it might get a bit damp. In fact tomorrow should be lovely.

ChippingInLovesSpring Fri 19-Apr-13 22:14:19

Thank you my lovely - will make 'Sunny Day' plans smile

Thank you flowers

thebeastandbeauty Fri 19-Apr-13 22:18:41

Digerd - the heating on during May and August bank holidays I have a strong recollection of being 2009...

digerd Sat 20-Apr-13 10:18:35

S. Herts.

Could well have been. Was that the year we had our summer in April and then turned cold until September when we had an 'indian summer'?

Night temps plummeted to 0 in the early hours, with a clear sky and sunshine today. Azure blue sky with strong sunshine, but atm lovely and fresh air. Hope it stays like it.

digerd Sun 21-Apr-13 06:55:22

S.Herts

Disappointing cold wind yesterday and last night -1, frost on the grass but a clear sky again.

A week ago we had +10 minimum in the night, and now -1 and frosty. What is that all about 3rd week in April?
Not good enough!!

Should improve this week digerd smile

digerd Mon 22-Apr-13 09:02:09

S.Herts

Indeed. Yesterday morning little dog took me along the canal bank and was sunny, sheltered and warm. Unfortunately, I was stopped by a lovely chatty man and his dog, and she was sitting down full in the sun and got overheated in her thick fur coat.

She prefers it cold, so she should be all frisky again next Friday? When frost and cold returns < according to my newspaper> and snow in the north. confused with our weather patterns.

digerd Mon 22-Apr-13 09:07:12

And very warm this Wednesday. Talk about 'unsettled'. What is going on? confused angry

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