DH reckons its going to be a very cold Jan/Feb

(82 Posts)
LillethTheCat Tue 01-Jan-13 14:34:01

Is it true?

I dont know where he's read that, but he reckons we are in for a big freeze in a couple of weeks or so.

I dont know why Im particularly bothered, but I would just like to know.

Part of me thinks Yay I have a nice new coat that I want to wear and part of me goes Fuck off..my bills will be nice and low!!

ImperialSantaKnickers Tue 01-Jan-13 14:36:51

I've heard this too. Not sure if I prefer warm but waterproofs dripping all over the place to dry but thermal underwear all day every day.

ILoveOnionRings Tue 01-Jan-13 14:40:42

Just looked at Metcheck.com and they say next week will be ok but from Monday 14th Jan it looks like the temperatures are going to plummet

LillethTheCat Tue 01-Jan-13 14:43:07

Thanks OnionRings

I have a new hat so I get to wear it.

ILoveOnionRings Tue 01-Jan-13 14:44:55

I had several new scarves so I am quite pleased too, I like crisp cold days but without the rain

OhyouMerryLittleKitten Tue 01-Jan-13 14:50:30

Was it the Metcheck map?

Certainly the first half of Jan is going to be pretty mild, but then there are a few indications that there might be a cool down. However it really does hang in the balance at the moment I'm afraid.

LillethTheCat Tue 01-Jan-13 14:51:22

Thanks kitten

It will be nice to be able to walk the dog round a frozen field rather than a swamp

OhyouMerryLittleKitten Tue 01-Jan-13 14:53:17

GFS ensembles don't show a plummet but a gradual drift down in temps (don't look at the 850 temps, they are the temperature at the height where the pressure is 850hpa!) and no real certainty, with a widespread in the solutions.

OhyouMerryLittleKitten Thu 03-Jan-13 09:35:00

Well, staying mildish up until the 19th according to GFS (which is as far as the model goes)

GloriaSnow Thu 03-Jan-13 11:01:24

<sigh> no sign of snow? I was hoping for at least something over Christmas/New Year. I want something to alleviate this post~Christmas glumness!

Yakshemash Thu 03-Jan-13 11:03:21

I thought long-range (ie more than five days) forecasting had been completedly discredited, which is why the Met Office don't do it any more.

That said, I would love a cold snap. Kill off the germs. [glares at office full of sniffers]

LillethTheCat Thu 03-Jan-13 11:17:54

Thanks for the update Kitten. Guess we'll just have to wait and see.

OhyouMerryLittleKitten Thu 03-Jan-13 11:24:12

Yakshe, yes it does get increasingly unreliable as you go in to the future.
One way to look at how likely a model is to be vaguely accurate is to look at the ensembles which is a collection of the same model with slightly different starting conditions. You can see looking at the 850 temps (the temperature at the point in the atmosphere where the pressure is 850hpa) that there is a wide scatter of solutions. In fact, the scatter has increased over the last couple of days, which means that moving into cold is becoming more of a possibility.

However, when looking at cold weather forecasting, one of the parameters to look for is where is the cold going to come from. If there isn't a good supply of cold air then you can move onto looking at whether there may be a SSW (sudden statrospheric warming) event. If that occurs then a cool down can occur very quickly from the north (it disrupts the pressure differential between the Icelandic low and the Azores high). There are indications that a SSW may be about to occur, but even if it does, it doesn't necessarily bring the UK severe cold, it's just one of the ingredients!

GloriaSnow Thu 03-Jan-13 14:23:49

Ah, that's how you read those ensemble things!
Netweather has a tutorial on the stratosphere and SSW here. A few more reads and I might understand it!

Yakshemash ~ yes, a cold snap would be good to kill off some germs <glares at roomful of sniffing DDs. Wipes own sniffly nose.>

nice link there Gloria!

mumat39 Thu 03-Jan-13 20:31:50

Hi Kitten.

With the ensembles, is it a particular coloured line that you look at or the general trend across all lines? There are 2lines that spike toward 12ish and -12ish between the 11th and the 15th, so are those treated as anomalies, or are they still possible.

I'm also hoping for a properly cold winter, or just a 'normal' season for a change as it's felt more like autumn for the last few.

Happy New Year by the way and I hope you're keeping well.

Take care. xxx

mumat39 Thu 03-Jan-13 21:06:50

Hi Gloria

That is a really good link. I think it'll take me a few good reads before I remember the differences between stratosphere and troposphere wink

Happy New Year to you too.
xxx

The operational run is the thick green line. This is the high resolution model. It starts off with the atmosphere modelled as closely as it can and has a relatively fine grid. hi res models take lots of computing power and/or more time to run. As a single model run it is likely to be the more accurate.

The control run is the thick blue line. This is a low resolution model run which is quicker to run, but it uses a coarser grid, so it is a comparatively a rough and ready model run

The other runs with thin lines are the runs where the starting points are slightly changed relative to the control run. Watch how these diverge, the tighter packed they are, the greater the confidence in the result.

Now, when the control run and the operational run diverge quickly confidence is really low!

The thick red line is an average result which of course isn't the most likeliest outcome, but it does help you see which of the runs is going off on a limb.

Run is starting to look like a very strange word now!

Mumat, those temps you looked at were the 850 temps, so higher up in the atmosphere. Those lines are known as outliers, and can probably be discarded as possible solutions.

Well......

smile
Proper cold appears on the chart Jan 19th. With snow showing.

Now of course as Yakshemash says, we can't really forecast that far in advance, but it does at least give an indication of where the weather may be going. It looks like a proper winter chart with real cold showing over us.

Meglet Fri 04-Jan-13 09:37:53

It's lovely out there today, just put some washing on the line. If we can have a mild few days then a proper cold winter that'll do me.

It's horrible here today, grey and wet, a persistent drizzle that has everything dripping. Yuck!

mumat39 Fri 04-Jan-13 22:28:05

Thanks for the explanation Kitten. Fingers crossed for the 19th.

I'm going to read your reply again now and again until I understand the ensembles.

Hope you have a lovely weekend. xxx

Labradorlover Sat 05-Jan-13 12:21:15

Thoroughly bored of this dull warm weather. It's 10C in Scotland in January FFS.
The grass is growing!

AmberLeaf Sat 05-Jan-13 12:27:04

I have been wondering about this too, I have a lovely new scarf I was hoping to wear!

In truth Id like it to remain mild so I don't go bankrupt with the gas bill!

So cold and possible snow from 19th jan-ish?

GloriaSnow Sat 05-Jan-13 13:16:11

We've got 11.2C here (Leicester) and I've just spotted some pink tree blossom while we were out shopping. 'Tis all wrong ~ I have new winter boots to wear and DDs have a sledge sitting in the garage waiting to be used!

Netweather though are hinting at the possible change here.

I'm afraid the models are being really irritating now. The latest GFS has backed away from cold in the forecastable future and the ensemble members seem to support that in general. But the ECM is going for cold rather strongly now in 10 days time.
Lets see what tomorrow brings, quite often the ECM is the first model to spot the first signs of change in the weather.

Waswondering Sat 05-Jan-13 22:29:07

OYBK - what do you think of tonight's 18Z GFS?

Oh, better for next weekend! Looking much colder. After that its dodgy territory, the jet stream looks so feeble and wobbly, that I wouldn't like to call whether GFS is correct or not, it's not going to take much to shift it out of the way so whilst it looks rubbish a week on Monday I wouldn't place to much faith in it.

Ok, we'll GFS has lost the cold for the coming weekend but has it back on for the 18th or so onwards and its a humdinger of a chart. If it came off as it stood (and remember how much things change) then there would be a lot of proper snow.

However the chart looks very very different from the ECMWF and there's not so much support from the GFS ensembles, so don't get too excited yet.

LillethTheCat Sun 06-Jan-13 11:19:57

Thanks for the update Kitten

I really don't want any snow now. It had it's chance over Christmas. sad

MegGriffin Sun 06-Jan-13 17:19:37

Watching with interest. I would love some.snow before spring.

mumat39 Sun 06-Jan-13 18:07:28

Come on snow. You know you want to ;)

We just need a proper winter.

I'm following the snow watch forum and there are lots of people trying not to get too excited in case it's another beast from the east non event. I haven't got a clue what all the jargon means and the particular discussion I'm lurking on was 100 pages so a new one was started. I've read it all and still haven't got a clue grin

Thanks Kitten. smile

<marking place>

GloriaSnow Sun 06-Jan-13 20:46:56

Some websites seem certain about things cooling down from the middle of this week. Several are giving us in the Midlands a 'high' of 1 or 2C next Sunday, with temperatures struggling to get above that beyond next weekend ~ that will probably all change though as it's a bit far ahead! But here for the moment are what theWeatherOutlook and netweather think.

SpottyBagOfTumble Sun 06-Jan-13 20:48:03

Also marking place so I can learn from more of kittens explanations!

SunshineOutdoors Sun 06-Jan-13 20:54:31

We're holidaying in the Yorkshire Dales in feb. always looks beautiful in the snow <crosses fingers then hopes that doesn't backfire and we can still make it over there>

Watching thread with interest smile

mumat39 Sun 06-Jan-13 21:00:00

Hey Gloria. Love the name change!

xxx

GloriaSnow Sun 06-Jan-13 21:15:25

It was changed in the hope that there might be some festive snow at Christmas but I guess while there's a chance of the white stuff now, the name can stay!

SpottyBagOfTumble Sun 06-Jan-13 22:02:58

So the ensembles linked to as the 850hpa temps. As I understand it, the hap temps need to generally be under -5 for snow ,but the 500-1000 hap has to be under 528 dams? (From another page on same site) so, is ther a graph of the expected air pressures?

SpottyBagOfTumble Sun 06-Jan-13 22:20:02

That would be air pressure at 850hpa!

Just tried to read about jet streams and it did my head in! Must try harder! Lol

SpottyBagOfTumble Sun 06-Jan-13 22:32:30

Also, why does. A wider scatter of the ensembles mean it is more likely to be cold?

SpottyBagOfTumble Sun 06-Jan-13 22:38:39

Actually, this is the graph I was looking for, right? www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

Then can combine with the ensembles?

SpottyBagOfTumble Sun 06-Jan-13 22:40:14

An d I have just figured out where the colours come from on the snow risk chart! Duh!

Oh, and sorry everyone for withering on to myself! Ignore me!

Don't worry smile will come back to you tomorrow afternoon.

Well, the trend to colder weather seems to take place towards the end of next weekend according to this mornings models.

StillSlightlyCrumpled Mon 07-Jan-13 08:02:18

Watching this thread with a worried face. I'm having my fortieth birthday party the weekend if the 26th, & have friends/ family travelling a long way. Please no snow for the midlands that weekend.
<wonders what I was thinking of booking a bloody party in January! It always snows on my birthday.>

I'm in the Midlands too Still, I will join you in the 'no snow' camp.

My take on it at the moment is that from the weekend it looks like there is going to be a gradual cool down, with some snow/rain coming into the picture. The following weekend is when it might really get going properly. GFS then clears it out far too quickly, but we shall see.

GFS still is showing a big cool down from around the 19th on with very wintery charts in the following days.

Metoffice seem to be sitting on the fence as usual

LillethTheCat Tue 08-Jan-13 13:16:38

Thanks for the updates. Id like snow cos its pretty, but Id like it not to intefere with the travelling.

Tak1ng, I don't blame them to be honest, it could rather easily all go pear shaped!

GFS is maintaining remarkable consistency for so far out time wise. Still showing winter starting the weekend of the 19th with buckets of snow about the place.

Although it would be really inconvenient, I'd be gutted if it didn't come off!

Noooooooooo!! No buckets of snow. None at all. It is all mild and lovely at the moment, and we are going to go straight into summer. <deluded>

GloriaSnow Tue 08-Jan-13 14:39:50

They're getting a bit excited about the possible snowmageddon on met-monkey <understatement!> The GFS chart along with the temperatures over Europe~way are a bit of a shock for the 24th. 'Ts all a long way off atm though!

The charts are jaw dropping Gloria grin must have a wander over to met monkey, the guys on UKWW are always so calm and laid back about stuff!

Sparkling, if it really was going to go straight into summer I'd be quite happy! It's this damp grey gloom that is getting to me. I need either heat or some excitement!

Must get some wellies for dd, she's grown out of hers and I might need mine!

I had to get DS1 a new pair of wellies. He went on the village Christmas walk, he and his friend thought it would be fun to cross the very flooded wet ploughed field diagonally. He lost his shoe completely and I had to dash over with wellies. shock We have the other shoe as a souvenir. grin

Oh snow - that would be great. grin

ClaimedByMe Tue 08-Jan-13 16:01:37

We are being told on fb by our local amatur weather gura that temps here are due to drop and we will be freezing by the weekend...........no mention of the white stuff yet!

ClaimedByMe Tue 08-Jan-13 16:04:38

excuse typos I had to rush as dd and ds were trying to kill each other

kitten and gloria I am gripping my knickers with excitement. The twitterati are out in force exclaiming over the models. Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!!

errmmm, I ought to have paid more attention to GFS for this weekend - so busy looking for the 'big dump' but Saturday could see some snow in the midlands and central england. Its looking very marginal, but possible.....

have to laugh at the express grin

ClaimedByMe Tue 08-Jan-13 17:28:20

Are they telling little white fibs?

Don't normally link to other forums but if you want to get all excited (and then probably get let down in a big way!) excited discussion

The Express and the Mail are shocking when it comes to weather reporting. Mind you, they probably apply the same degree of hyperbole to all their articles!

Quenelle Tue 08-Jan-13 17:33:52

Oooh good! My new rain/snowboots arrived today smile

Mmm. Marginal snow may be ok. I don't want to need the snow shovel. grin

Waiting for the next model outputs.... exciting!

do you reckon I should start a new thread with snow risks and what not?? or are we doing fine with traffic on this one?

Curtsey Tue 08-Jan-13 17:58:44

Kitten - may I be incredibly cheeky and ask you if you have a way of seeing if Ireland might be similarly affected? smile

LynetteScavo Tue 08-Jan-13 18:06:50

So I need to buy a snow shovel before the 19th? Is that right?

The south of Ireland might catch it on Saturday smile It stays a bit warmer than England next week but still pretty cold Then afterwards it does look like it it could join in the fun after the following weekend along with everyone else!

lynette, possibly on Saturday if you are on higher ground in central england. i forget where everyone lives!

I think you could start a shiny new snow thread. Everyone loves a snow thread!!

Yes a 'Snow or no Snow' thread. I'm a no obvs. wink

Curtsey Tue 08-Jan-13 19:21:33

Thanks kitten!

LynetteScavo Tue 08-Jan-13 20:08:09

I'm in central England, but I think on lower ground. No higher ground anywhere near me, or that I'm aware of in central England.

Off to buy snow shovel, then. DS2 has been nagging for one for ages. I already have grit, as I'm fed up of being out organised by by neighbors, who kindly do the path outside my house.

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