Now Nadine has been a really pesky hurricane. Very long lived. At one point she was downgraded and then reinvigorated to reform into a hurricane. She then strengthened when forecasts were for her to grow weaker. You can see her history Here
Now there's no guarantee that she will hit our shores and if she does the impact will depend on any other weather systems and troughs that she interacts with. she would be an extra-tropical low by that time.
IF she hits our shores AND the conditions are right, then it could be quite a stormy affair. STay tuned....
bonkers nadine path is quite a good animation. Note that the cone has her eventually heading northwards and her itself not reaching our shores. I've two thoughts on that:
1)shes not really behaved herself so far, so I'm not sure that the prediction cone is as valuable as it usually is. So I'd take that predicted path with a big pinch of salt at the moment. 2)Looking at GFS, although it shows her staying away from us, she once again looks to spawn another low pressure (a bit like last weeks storm) early next week which could produce a serpate storm again if everything came together.
NOAA probability prediction about nadine a strength shows that on Saturday it is still most likely to be a tropical storm then it becomes absorbed by an extra tropical low I think. The probability cone they draw has it out over it the Atlantic Saturday still.
Interestingly GFS now shows a high pressure over us at the weekend, which would lead to dry settled conditions. So after a wet Friday for many and a wet start in the south on Saturday it now looks like a rather nice weekend with ex-nadine kept at bay.
Having fascinatedly looked through all those links in the last few minutes I can comfortably say I understand none of it , especially not the German bits. I try very very hard though. Does it basically mean its going to be a wet windy weekend?
Possibly Pascha! The potential is certainly there though at the moment it looks more that Friday will be the wettest, but mostly for the southern half of the uk. GFS shows high pressure winning on Saturday with a nice sat/sun in store for many! Still all to play for I think!
Still looks like Friday will be the wettest for the south. Further north it's a bit of a mixed bag though the rain may extend into the northern midlands. There could be some drier spell for the south as we move through friday before the rain returns later that day.
Unfortunately even though we get some clearer weather on sat/sun then a lot more wet weather is due to come on monday Incidentally some high rainfall totals across northern France too, particularly early next week.
I wouldn't try and look too closely at timings and how far north the rain will move just yet, the weather over the next few days is coming in pulses along a front - a battle between colder air from the north and the wet warm subtropical air and it depends on the exact position of that front but we are in for further unsettled and possibly v wet weather for a time to come. Make the most of any dry days!
Critical to where the worst weather ends up will be where the front lies. A change of 50 miles north or south would make a corresponding difference to how far north/south the extent of the rain is. So I would continue to keep a close eye on the warnings.
NOAA discussion demonstrates how the models diverge in 48/72 hours time with one model saying it will go NNE and two others saying it will go westwards. So you can see how uncertain things are!