Need to keep an eye on the coming weekends weather (5th on)

(46 Posts)

Mn lost my very detailed post. sad and now I'm short of time.

Look at the 120 hr Bracknell chart which shows ex-hurricane Nadine coming our way at the end of the week.

Now Nadine has been a really pesky hurricane. Very long lived. At one point she was downgraded and then reinvigorated to reform into a hurricane. She then strengthened when forecasts were for her to grow weaker. You can see her history Here

Now there's no guarantee that she will hit our shores and if she does the impact will depend on any other weather systems and troughs that she interacts with. she would be an extra-tropical low by that time.

IF she hits our shores AND the conditions are right, then it could be quite a stormy affair. STay tuned....

beachyhead Mon 01-Oct-12 08:20:20

Thank you - I love your posts, Public Service Kittengrin

Thanks OYBBK.

I've been trying to keep an eye on Nadine, and I wondered what impact she would have on us.

Is she one of the longest lived storms on record?

Nadine is 20 days old today smile its making its way up the list of longest lived atlantic hurricanes but it wont top the list.

I'm going to have a look at the latest (you are welcome beachyhead smile )

bonkers nadine path is quite a good animation. Note that the cone has her eventually heading northwards and her itself not reaching our shores. I've two thoughts on that:

1)shes not really behaved herself so far, so I'm not sure that the prediction cone is as valuable as it usually is. So I'd take that predicted path with a big pinch of salt at the moment.
2)Looking at GFS, although it shows her staying away from us, she once again looks to spawn another low pressure (a bit like last weeks storm) early next week which could produce a serpate storm again if everything came together.

One to keep watching I think!

very good video from a few days ago talking about why nadine is being awkward.

national hurricane centre seem to be counting nadine as 18 days old - theyve excluded the couple of days where she really lost strength.

(sorry above post should read 'the weather channel' not the national hurricane centre.)

You can also see on that video page, the range of different model solutions showing which way nadine might go (which is pretty much anywhere according to them!)

BackforGood Mon 01-Oct-12 15:05:04

Well, that'd be right - dh and all 3 of my dcs are on camp this weekend grin

If only the weather models could use data from' campers/walkers luck quotient' then I feel they would be much more accurate grin

Latest NOAA advisory
And the different model forecasts as to where nadine or remnants of her may end up are here which basically means she could go anywhere!

GFS is now showing nadine interacting with another low (i think) and spawning low pressure systems a bit like a budding cell.
here look at GFS 500hpa from about thurs on.

GloriaSmud Mon 01-Oct-12 20:37:24

It's kind of fascinating watching that cell split off!

NOAA probability prediction about nadine a strength shows that on Saturday it is still most likely to be a tropical storm then it becomes absorbed by an extra tropical low I think. The probability cone they draw has it out over it the Atlantic Saturday still.

Interestingly GFS now shows a high pressure over us at the weekend, which would lead to dry settled conditions. So after a wet Friday for many and a wet start in the south on Saturday it now looks like a rather nice weekend with ex-nadine kept at bay. smile

oh looky smile met office warnings for heavy rain at the end of the week, (from thursday on) for heavy rain associated with subtropical air.

Not good of course that there is potential for flooding, but it is warm air that has moved up and around nadine.

Worth bearing in mind that there is still real uncertainty (again!) as to what will happen. GFS has swung hugely today....

Pascha Tue 02-Oct-12 20:03:36

Having fascinatedly looked through all those links in the last few minutes I can comfortably say I understand none of it blush, especially not the German bits. I try very very hard though. Does it basically mean its going to be a wet windy weekend?

Possibly Pascha! The potential is certainly there though at the moment it looks more that Friday will be the wettest, but mostly for the southern half of the uk. GFS shows high pressure winning on Saturday with a nice sat/sun in store for many! Still all to play for I think!

redwhiteandblueeyedsusan Wed 03-Oct-12 00:08:56

oh yippidy doo! better find the wellies...

oh and bumpity bump

Still looks like Friday will be the wettest for the south. Further north it's a bit of a mixed bag though the rain may extend into the northern midlands. There could be some drier spell for the south as we move through friday before the rain returns later that day.

Unfortunately even though we get some clearer weather on sat/sun then a lot more wet weather is due to come on monday Incidentally some high rainfall totals across northern France too, particularly early next week.

I wouldn't try and look too closely at timings and how far north the rain will move just yet, the weather over the next few days is coming in pulses along a front - a battle between colder air from the north and the wet warm subtropical air and it depends on the exact position of that front but we are in for further unsettled and possibly v wet weather for a time to come. Make the most of any dry days!

updated warnings with some refinement.

Critical to where the worst weather ends up will be where the front lies. A change of 50 miles north or south would make a corresponding difference to how far north/south the extent of the rain is. So I would continue to keep a close eye on the warnings.

NOAA discussion demonstrates how the models diverge in 48/72 hours time with one model saying it will go NNE and two others saying it will go westwards. So you can see how uncertain things are!

btw, much of next week looks revolting.

Pascha Wed 03-Oct-12 19:33:55

You enjoy forecasting doomladen predictions don't you Kitten? I'm going to get wet Friday and Saturday in Kent regardless of which direction the rain goes arent I?

<goes to buy a liferaft>

Now where would the fun be in predicting gentle autumn mists and crisp nights Pascha? wink

updated warnings with heavy rain moving into the Sw tonight before spreading across England and Wales. Manchesters odd little warning has gone. I don't think the rainfall totals are going to be as dire as was first predicted but there could be gales across southern counties, so it might sound worse than it is. Still a lot of trees in leaf, so be prepared for toppled trees tomorrow in southern coastal areas.

Tomorrow daylight hours hopefully there should be quite a nice dry slot (but not guaranteed) before more rain moves in later. This rain could be heavy in the south but on Saturday, once the rain clears it should be ok though there are still considerable model differences and so I wouldn't count on the accuracy of that thought!

beginning of next week still grimola but perhaps a bit of an improvement after

I can confirm that the SW is indeed experiencing heavy rain grin
Not much wind to speak of.

As one storm dies, so another is born. Goodbye Nadine, hello Oscar

We had quite heavy rain here in York last night. Garden looks v soggy but lovely morning today.

suePurb, that's just a little taster ahead of tonight grin

Just looked at the radar. Northern France are really copping it.

warnings are changed, much smaller area than at first, which tallies well with the overall rainfall figures not looking as bad as they did but note the new warnings for Sun/Mon

What sort of time are we talking do you think, for the Devons? I have to go exploring (trying to find a very rural riding school) either at 4.30 today or tomorrow. Which is the least likely to be 'orrible do you think?

Oh I've found the breakdown, don't worry. Looks much of a muchness.

The rain at the end of the weekend looks really nasty for the SW, coming after heavy rain tonight/tomorrow, I think it could cause some issues with around 80mm of rain in that second bout.

So we have had Spawn 1 of Nadine last week, Spawn 2 coming up tonight/tomorrow/Sat and then ex-nadine herself (all absorbed into a larger low) on Sun/Monday.
Shes been a right royal pain!

BYE BYE NADINE as NOAA put it! They reckon it was the second longest lasting tropical atlantic storm.

Just had a look at the wind gusts that met office are forecasting along the south in the early hours. looks like widespread gusts along southern coast of 60mph, perhaps higher. IOW could get some nasty stuff too. Even quite far inland could get 40-50mph. Which is not really out of the ordinary, but even ordinary gales can cause disruption.

bump to catch the evening crowd.

<hunkers down>

Tether those trampolines on the coast grin

pepperrabbit Thu 04-Oct-12 21:11:29

I'm not coastal but I have 3 fence panels only held up by willpower...

pepperrabbit Thu 04-Oct-12 21:11:32

I'm not coastal but I have 3 fence panels only held up by willpower...

pepperrabbit Thu 04-Oct-12 21:12:17

and a twitch on my posting finger clearly!

Oh dear pepper! I remember all the winds we had last winter, nothing awful but constant blowiness - watching our fence panels flap back and forth with plants to worry about and neighbours stressing was not fun!

pepperrabbit Thu 04-Oct-12 21:39:09

We have an enormous old oak tree which lost a huge spire in the summer storms at vast expense we had to have it properly pollarded - the really scary bit was it looked fine just after all the wind as I went specifically to check it as it's above the climbing frame.
3 days later with not a breath of wind it came crashing halfway down the tree, I still get a "what if" moment every now and again.

Crickey!!!

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