Weather for the coming weekend 22nd-23rd

(55 Posts)

Very briefly this morning with more this evening.

There is large uncertainty over this weekends weather. Parts of Ex-hurricane Nadine start to influence our weather, but the models are really struggling with what is a complex situation. If as it seems may happen, a deep low develops and moves up from our sw coasts, then parts could be in for extremely wet and very windy conditions especially on Sunday. The added sting to this sorry picture is that gfs then has the low sitting over the SW for days.

Look out for met office early warnings either today or tomorrow I think for Sunday.

More info and perhaps detail later...

Info about the west coast of scotland would be good (Argyll & Bute area). It's a Glasgow holiday tomorrow and Monday, so loads of people are going away for the last public holiday weekend of the year.

smile useful to know! Will take a proper look after work.

3duracellbunnies Thu 20-Sep-12 09:36:14

Prepares to batten down the hatches and have party at home sad

alcibiades Thu 20-Sep-12 10:30:05

Alex Deakin explains the uncertainty here:

www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/19650773

warnings from met office

note that at the moment they are across the south and then up the east coast Monday.

Looking at the different models, there is no way I am going to attempt a forecast for Sunday/Monday. Too much variation and I could easily be wildly out. For the moment I would stick to the Met office, but be aware that if the low does develop as it might then possibly we could be looking at 80mm+ rain in parts over the 2-3 days.

not a bad summary by Alex Deakin, I do like a proper forecast!

sad my detailedish look at the charts vanished.

Gfs shows the new low going north to affect much of the uk with lots of rain and wind. UKMO keeps the low going through the channel so really only southern and eastern parts are affected. ECMWF is similar to gfs. The fax charts ( produced by the met office with lots of human input) don't appear to show the new low form at all.

If UKMO is correct then It looks set to go much colder next week I think. If gfs is correct then it's going to be a very wet and blowy week for many.

Tres tricky.

Models are all offering different solutions this morning!!!

I'm beginning to suspect we wont know until it actually happens. Will be very interesting to see which one had the closest solution.

OhBuggerandArse Fri 21-Sep-12 16:07:35

Forecast good for Edinburgh now as far as I can see - any thoughts on when we can start believing it?

I think that on Sunday you should probably be ok (but do have a back up plan) there is massive uncertainty later in the day, but most of the uncertainty is connected to what is going to happen south of you and the effect of that will take time to reach your area iyswim.

3duracellbunnies Fri 21-Sep-12 18:12:29

We still look decidedly uncertain, it looks at the moment on the sites I have seen that the SE is ok or just light rain until mid/late afternoon, not sure whether to risk it. At least the house is looking a bit tidier anyway!

Much more dodgy 3duracell, though the rain does seem to have been postphoned til later as you say at the moment.

If the UKMO model is correct then Monday looks to be on the rather windy side in the south. If the trend continues tomorrow then I think warnings may go up to amber.

Ok, having a really good look at the models now smile

Gfs shows the rain reaching the south in the morning. Lots of rain throughout the day in this area. Rain reaching Scotland by late evening. Rain continues right through Monday and indeed apart from a change to slightly more showery weather (and a through dry slots) general it's quite a grim week ahead for the UK.

UKMO shows a very similar picture now. ECMWF doesn't seem to deepen the low quite so far and it takes a bit of an odd track up to the NW of Scotland.

Wind wise although it could be quite windy tomorrow, it's more of a concern on Monday and this needs quite careful watching (IMO)

So to summarise, a period of very wet and rather windy weather is on the cards.By the end of Monday/Tuesday there will be some high rainfall totals and with that the risk of flooding. Although the winds don't look too bad (general autumn gales) I think there is scope for some stronger stuff and bear in mind that the trees are still in full leaf (at least they are down south) so they will be more vulnerable.

Winds at the moment look to be strongest in southern coastal regions on Monday afternoon according to met office but GFS also shows a tight squeeze in the isobars over Scotland on Monday evening.

RubberNeckerNicker Sat 22-Sep-12 10:23:55

Oh this isn't looking great OYBBK, you have to plead with the weather gods (in fact aren't you one yourself?) to clear everything up by next weekend.

It has to not rain on the 30th, I don't care how cold it is just no rain - please. I can't open a park in the rain wink

Ooooo, will just check for the 30th.......

According to GFS it looks ok smile high pressure builds at the end of the week. Pleasant temps and dry is forecast at the moment. ECMWF is showing a similar trend, so fingers crossed!

RubberNeckerNicker Sat 22-Sep-12 10:39:13

Yaaay you truely are a weather God! (and I'm going to hold you to it) grin

Though I think you should come to the park just to make sure grin

grin

And ta-da amber warnings (though not ta-da in the happy sense]] have been posted for the sw for heavy rain. Also much more of the uk is under yellows. Warnings are out for Tuesday too.

Very little change on the latest GFS model, so no change to my thoughts.

Some parts in the sw could see some very high rainfall totals up to around 80mm over sun/mon.

(Nice storm on casualty atm)

Very quiet on here! I suppose there isn't much to say now until it happens.

mumat39 Sat 22-Sep-12 22:53:01

Thank kitten.
I quite fancy a duvet day tomorrow watching a few films in my pj's but I hope there's not too much rain that causes problems anywhere, like flooding.

Hope you've had a good Saturday and that you're not too affected where you are. Take care. xxx

smile I'm looking forward to a day cosy inside tomorrow too, with some model watching and peering out of the window saying 'oh, it's quite wet'.
Only I forgot to make sure there aren't any spiders in my rain gauge. Will have to check first thing.
Had a lovely Saturday in the garden smile

GloriaSmud Sat 22-Sep-12 23:07:57

<escapes from real life and sidles in>

I've been watching this storm since it was mentioned on netweather a few days ago and been watching it on the weather charts. But I was watching a day or two ago the way the low, once it moved across the south on Sunday/Monday, sort of does a circle of the UK on into Tuesday. So it didn't really surprise me that the warnings when they were released earlier today, covered Tuesday as well (I'm slowly learning how to read these weather chart thingys!)
It does looks awful for the SW tomorrow and Monday ~ hope everyone keeps safe in those areas.

(How are you doing, OYBBK?)

3duracellbunnies Sat 22-Sep-12 23:17:53

Have sorted out the house to have the party here, should have gone for next weekend by the sound of it. Still he's only 3, as long as there is cake, games and presents he won't care!

GloriaSmud Sun 23-Sep-12 06:56:55

Very much 'the calm before the storm' atm ~ it looks like we're going to have a nice sunrise in a bit!

Morning allsmile just looking through the models ATM. (Not too bad thanks Gloria smile )

Not a bad day up in Scotland. The low pressure seems to be moving more slowly northward than first programmed. Going to be a very wet day down South.

GFS does show some very heavy rain later tonight in the West Midlands/Wales and that will move north into Scotland tomorrow.

Winds still could be an issue tomorrow afternoon/evening for much of Scotland and southern coastal areas of England and that could remain an issue through Tuesday too. Nothing terrible showing at the moment but as I said in an earlier post with trees in leaf it takes less wind to bring them down.

Through this week lots more rain and wind to come for all at some time or another but by the weekend much calmer hopefully (though GFS does now show some pesky showers on sunday for much of England.)

Very grey and gloomy here. Sky feels full of rain.

Dry here at the moment - a bit grey but warmer than yesterday.

I am hoping it stays dry long enough to get the boys football kits washed and out on the line after football this morning!

Think you should just about be ok til mid afternoon manky.

Rain has started here. Don't expect it to stop for any real length of time now until tomorrow afternoon.

GloriaSmud Sun 23-Sep-12 10:54:18

I'm living dangerously and got the washing out at the moment! It's brightish but overcast.
My weather station though is saying that the pressure has dropped in the last few hours and that rain is due, so it's getting that right!

Apparently this weather system is called Karin!

radar to see how close the rain is to you!

Thunder and lightning on the IOW now. Love this weather!

gruber Sun 23-Sep-12 12:54:02

Update from south coast: persistent heavy rain since early hours, windy/gusty, thunder & lightning now rumbling around IOW/coast. Storm seems directly overhead. Not a nice day! Just have to wait and see how it develops now I suppose.

OYBBK- love reading your posts! Very interesting.

Dry here at the moment - a bit grey but warmer than yesterday.

I am hoping it stays dry long enough to get the boys football kits washed and out on the line after football this morning!

Hmm, that's odd! don't know what happened there.

Washing on the line as I type!

Hmm, that's odd! don't know what happened there.

Washing on the line as I type!

GloriaSmud Sun 23-Sep-12 13:54:09

Just started raining here, a little earlier than was expected I think.
All those lightning strikes off the south coast are showing up nicely here atm.

trying to rain here at the moment, it's very dark.

amber warnings been extended across to the IOW for heavy rain tonight.
Interestingly at the moment a dry slot seems to have formed around parts of the south coast. Feels cold though with temps of around 10c and lowering skies again.

Thanks gruber smile

3duracellbunnies Sun 23-Sep-12 19:11:46

Well the party here went well, it was raining for most of it, so we stayed inside and had a 'how many people can you squeeze into a conservatory' party. We managed 11 children and 8 adults! Thank you for all the all too accurate forecasting.

I'm really glad the party went well even if it was rather a squish. You are very welcome smile

OhBuggerandArse Sun 23-Sep-12 22:19:35

'Fraid to say that up here it was fine and sunny, if a bit cold, and we managed a very nice party outside! Thanks so much for all the help with the forecasts - it would have been such a shame to have called it off and then realised we could have been outside after all. Tell you what, though, you could smell the weather changing in the air - had a definite 'rain coming' feel.

I'm glad it was lovely for you smile
It was actually quite nice having the rain come down while it was all warm and cosy here. Novelty will wear off I'm sure.

met office warnings including for gales in the SE.

RubberNeckerNicker Mon 24-Sep-12 09:46:14

Novelty had definitely worn off by this morning - no fun doing the school run in thumping rain. It's just so unrelenting - the worst kind of rain!

I hope I didn't see you mention pesky showers for the weekend above - take it back!! Sunday will be nothing but unbroken sunshine!

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