Awful weather coming up this week

(52 Posts)
OhYouGreatGreatBritain Sat 11-Aug-12 10:28:42

After this lovely weekend I'm afraid things revert back to normal, with some high rainfall totals expected with each part of the uk getting its own turn at heavy rain. No signs of improvement really until towards the end of August when there are some hints of better weather.

MrGeresHamster Sat 11-Aug-12 10:30:45

I saw hints of this on the BBC, but didn't believe it. ...but now you've said it and you are the guru it must be true. sad

Doyouthinktheysaurus Sat 11-Aug-12 10:48:20

Shhh....Don't tell DH or the dses, I was hoping for a camping tripgrin

Can't complain, I've just come back from 2 weeks in North Wales with a suntanshock We had mostly good weather, a couple of storms and heavy downpours but pretty good mostly.

It would be nice if it continued though.....

oh no! DS1, my pfb is off to the Scout International Jamboree in Essex on it going to be a case of mud, glorious mud?

MirandaWest Sun 12-Aug-12 10:11:21

<closes ears to weather woes>

Unlurked Sun 12-Aug-12 10:15:54

Oh no i was hoping it would clear up by the end of the week. I'm getting married on Saturday. In the rain apparently!

OhYouGreatGreatBritain Sun 12-Aug-12 19:03:20

Well, at the moment, ( and it's a long way off) gfs is showing the se as being dry on saturday, with the Rain lingering in a swathe from the sw and Wales across up to the NE.

OhYouGreatGreatBritain Mon 13-Aug-12 09:45:03

Wednesday looks nasty, some very high winds, particularly in the SW where they could gust to over 50mph. Challenging for camping and quite possibly for channel crossings I'n afraid. Lots of heavy rain too.

oreocrumbs Mon 13-Aug-12 09:51:01

OYBBK what are the chances of a nice warm sunny day in the north east on thursday and friday? DD's birthday. Oh and Sunday, big annual family BBQ? Shall we abandon all hope now?

sad really?/??

we had a wet camping trip in July, so when the weather improved we decided to go and visit the in-laws this coming weekend inthe hope that we'd get down to the beach at last.
they're in the south west sad


In your expert opinion OYGGB, would we be better going this weekend coming, or waiting until beginning of September?

rubyrubyruby Mon 13-Aug-12 10:04:44

<<puts fingers in ears>>


OhYouGreatGreatBritain Mon 13-Aug-12 14:17:12

next weekend is actually starting to look quite interesting. Whilst gfs shows rain for a good part of the country, it also shows hot dry weather in the SE (temps of 30C), so if you are planning a camping trip, that at the moment looks the place to be, with caution as I think that there is rather a recipe for some decent thunderstorms in that set up. However Cape ( convective available potential energy) values are low for SE England so perhaps not.

Big heads up though if you are planning to be camping in ne and central France next weekend (and also Belgium). CAPE values on gfs are through the roof and so the possibility of some severe storms there.

oreo - slim, though thursday looks to be your better bet atm.

OYGGB, I haven't seen all your early threads, so forgive me, but is this a hobby of yours, or more?

Poledra Mon 13-Aug-12 14:36:16

Ah feck, we're crossing the channel on Wed night, and pore little DD2 gets seasick sad

exexpat Mon 13-Aug-12 14:41:17

Off to a festival in South Wales from Friday - does this mean I have to go and buy DS some new wellies?

OhYouGreatGreatBritain Mon 13-Aug-12 16:41:42

OOMYCO - purely a hobby, albeit a rather obsessive one grin

exexpat. based on todays model output I'd say yes I'm afraind.

Poledra sad oh dear. Can you drug her with something useful?

Doyouthinktheysaurus Mon 13-Aug-12 16:55:24

We'll be camping near the south downs hopefully so I'll keep everything crossed for no thunderstorms!

oreocrumbs Mon 13-Aug-12 18:08:55

Thanks! Will still go out, but take the usual british winter summer accessories, wellies, rain coat, suncream confused!

What do you reckon for west coast of Scotland - say Isle of Mull? For two weeks from Saturday......just wondering wink

So where do you learn all this stuff? It's great!

shouldIbecrossaboutthis Mon 13-Aug-12 21:43:42

exexpat.. "Off to a festival in South Wales from Friday - does this mean I have to go and buy DS some new wellies?"

If this is GreenMan then Snap exexpat!!

OHYBK, I'll be in Crickhowell for the festival, we were planning to arrive Thursday; is there any part of the day that's looking dryish as we will arrange to arrive then and pitch the 3 tents we promised friends we would do sad.

Lol NL, a lot will change between now and then grin which is fortunate as gfs shows a low pressure (not terribly deep) with a fair amount of rain associated with it. Doesn't mean that tthat low pressure will form as placed if it forms, but it does indicate that things are still very unsettled with the bastard jet stream still staying far too south.

OOMTCO, firstly I ought to say that i do get it wrong loads and I've still got masses to learn. I think any lurking professional forecasters probably roll their eyes at what I say grin

I've picked stuff up from a variety of sources. I've done a short basic ou course ( which is accessible for anyone and I'd highly recommend it) there's also a free source of lectures and courses at met ed some of them are way above me but theres loads of interesting ones and often they are quite topical, so for instance I've done one on volcanic ash.
I also go to conferences a couple of times a year and learn loads from people who know what they are talking about! I read weather journals and I also lurk on weather forums and if I'm not sure how a synoptic situtation translates into what will happen on the ground I can get a reasonable idea from what they are saying.
I'd love a real job doing this, I have to say.

It's fascinating...

ShouldI, timings are quite difficult at the moment, I've looked at a couple of different models and the fax charts and it depends on associated troughs and fronts with the low, but both seem to have the best window of opportunity as being around lunchtime at the moment, so for the moment, I'd plan for then. Give me a nudge tomorrow or Wednesday and I'll have another look for you.

shouldIbecrossaboutthis Mon 13-Aug-12 22:53:05

Thanks so much you weather genius grin

this is only a hobby?? I always assumed you were a professional, you're so knowledgeable (although in fairness you could be talking complete crap for all I know!)
So, Windermere on the 24th and 25th please? It's a little specific, but I have faith in your abilities grin

grin my biggest fear is that one day I'll be found out!!!

(and on a more serious note I do worry that people may make important decisions based on what I've said, which could have serious consequences, but I do try to put disclaimers on a lot of my threads, I really hope that people only use them as a very rough and ready guide)

SPB at the moment it looks very wet I'm afraid sad

Potential is def there for some very hot weather in the south east this weekend and perhaps some rather active thunderstorms. Saturday now overall looking much less wet (according to gfs)

hazeyjane Tue 14-Aug-12 08:11:52

Dh is a sports groundsman - he is understandably obsessed with the weather.

He checks every weather forecast available, and then says, 'you' d better check Mumsnet' - apparently you are the most reliablesmile

Any ideas for South Wales am of to meet some friends for long weekend and were planning picnic . We go Thursday and staying till Monday

Argh! What do you think about north Lincolnshire on Sunday? It's dd's 1st birthday party and our house is much too small to accommodate the people we've got coming, especially the 10 marauding toddlers, so I'm relying on being able to chuck everyone out into the garden sad

South Wales - thurs potentially a bit wet depending on how far south ( the further north in Wales the better) fri rather wet for much of the day, sat showery. Sunday nice.
Of course it may all change smile

Lincolnshire. Hot away from the coast. Maybe the odd shower in the afternoon, but lots of potential for nice weather.

Today could see some decent thunderstorms breaking out. TORRO have issued a convective outlook that is worth reading.

GloriaSmud Wed 15-Aug-12 09:00:14

Netweather's thoughts on today's weather.

AngryFeet Wed 15-Aug-12 09:09:37

Hi oybbk, any ideas on the isle of wight over the next week? We are going for a week on friday and a little sunshine would be nice!

Thank you so much oybbk grin party is 11-1 so fingers crossed!

Angryfeet - friday could be a bit dodgy, at the moment te IOW is on the edge of the rainband. Sat looks nice and perhaps sunday too, though there maybe showers. Monday nice smile Tuesday not so nice then wed and thur, showers? hot on Sat/Sun pleasantly warm on other days.

Well, I ought to pack for my own hols smile (where it will be hot and sunny grin )

I've looked at the forecast for North Norfolk next week - we're off there Mon-thurs and it looks this still looking possible ???

rosieposey Wed 15-Aug-12 11:07:29

Any chance of a heads up for a week tomorrow (23rd) and the following days? PFB and P2ndB are off to Reading festival and i have a feeling they wont last the 4 days if it tips down the whole while they are there?

I really enjoy your threads OYBBK smile I get all excited from October onwards and any chance of snow!

smile you'll have to bear with me if I dont get round to everyones requests today, I've done no packing or anything for our holiday and we are off in the early hours. Just sat down for a bit of a rest.

Tornado watch issued for today.

blimey - looks a bit scary!

rosieposey Wed 15-Aug-12 12:18:25

No worries oybbk - going anywhere nice and more importantly sunny? I would love to see a funnel cloud or mini tornado - its on my bucket list but where I live in Wiltshire we never even seem to have storms tis all a bit boring weatherwise.

I would love to see a tornado too rosie smile I've had a narrow miss from one that hit just a block away and I heard it, but I was too busy explaining to dh what we should do if the sirens really meant it blush

we are going down to the south of France. I think that actually its going to be rather too hot so I shall have to remedy that with lots of icecream and sitting in the sea (what a hard life!)

23rd and 24th at the moment look ok if gfs is to be believed, perhaps a bit showery on the 24th. The 25th and 26th look wet with low pressure dominating. Still, its ages away and it may change smile

butisthis - looks like youve chosen some nice days at the moment smile perhaps some showers wednesday but on the whole, good choice!

woo hoo! thanks grin

rosieposey Wed 15-Aug-12 17:57:39

Have a lovely time and relax smile Wow even to hear a tornado must be pretty cool (if a bit scary) DH and I looked into those storm chasing holidays a couple of years ago but its bloody expensive and I'm pg again so wont be going anywhere for quite a long time i think.

I know the UK gets its fair share of small tornado's and funnel clouds I've just never been lucky enough to see one. Sounds like you were in the states when you had your near miss - sirens make it more scary!

We get some pretty decent tornadoes over here too, just not the monsters, which are actually quite rare in the states, most are of a similar size to ours. I was in the States with my close encounter. It was a very scary storm!

FriendofDorothy Wed 15-Aug-12 20:48:31

Hmm. We are heading to Swansea area on Saturday for a camping trip. Any guesses on what the weather might be like?

Sorry FOD, I ran out of time. But see my dedication - I'm sat in the port and tad ah -
met office warnings for today and tomorrow for heavy rain potential for storms this weekend too that aren't really showing on the met office forecast.

GentleOtter Thu 16-Aug-12 08:40:19

We had an awful electrical storm on Monday (I think) and the place we were all sheltering was hit by lightning.

Dh had just finished saying that "No farmer that he ever knew had been hit by lightning" when the flash happened. shock

The big shed roof and all the routers were hit, cottage down the road which shares the same lines saw their router actually flash blue then melt. Power was knocked out then torrential rain which filled the streams up very quickly.

<still a gibbering wreck>

That must have been very scary! I'm not surprised you are still gibbering. I've read a few reports of farmers being struck um afraid. If you look back over historical records I think proportionally fewer people are struck nowadays because most of us lead such indoor lives.

I would love some thunder storms on the south coast please grin

GentleOtter Thu 16-Aug-12 09:05:39

Yes, I am busy making small and large Faraday cages. The children had huddled into me and are still large eyed, days later.

Ds1 was smug sitting in the tractor - he said it was the safest place but he looked shocked when the big shed was hit just a few yards from where he was sheltering.

Out rogueing potatoes today in the field so I'll be doing it in my Faraday.

Hazardous job!!!! Your ds was probably right but what s vantage point! (going o lose signal in a mo)

Have a great holiday oybbk grinenvy

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