Potential weekend storm

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

You may have seen on the weather forecast potential for a rather nasty storm in southern England at the weekend.

It is a really difficult one to call. A low is developing in the subtropics. Lots of warm moist air in it. It is expected to move rapidly ne.

Uncertainties are:
1)Will it develop into a severe storm?
Complicated question. Models are all over the place. It depends on how it interacts with a trough It could deepen very rapidly or not at all.

2)Where will it go?
It could cross over into England or it could miss us and take a good swipe at the low countries instead.

It is particularly difficult to forecast because of where it is forming. It is (as I understand it) a fairly unusual path. Also there is quite a sparsity of data in the region that it is forming. Basically there aren't enough measurements in the area to really pinpoint exactly what it is doing.

Does look potentially at least a huge rain producer. The winds???

So when watching the forecasts for this one, bear in mind it is tricky!!!

[mankyscotslass]

Oooh is this the storm set to hit Portugal/Spain and France? And Madeira?

My friend lives in Spain and its been on the news that it's a potentially devastating system with potential for structural damage and loss of life!

[SnowWoman]

We've already got a foot or so of snow this morning - d'you think this will mean more??
Eeeek!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I'm pretty sure it is Manky It clips the edge of spain (and therefore portugal gets it) very tight squeeze of isobars showing on the bottom of it. We have to hope for their sake that it develop as it could.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

snowwoman, not sure which direction it will go, it may not reach you up there. Have you seen my 'snow in scotland' thread?

[mumblechum]

Lovely. DS in a rowing race on the turn of the tide at Hammersmith on Sunday.

Hope he doesn't drown and/or get hypothermia.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

snow in scotland thread

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

mumble . Perhaps send him with a snorkel!!!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Going to get on with some work and have another look at lunchtime. (I have to be strict with myself else I lose whole days to model gazing)

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

ok nothing to add really. some talk of the system being down graded on the models, but it is far to early to call.

[catinthehat2]

[PreachyPeachyRantsALot]

Is this possibly going to affect se walees? cant see anything anywhere but sending ds2 out on a cubs hike so would change my mind about taking him if so....

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Peachy, I would be wary of the rainfall amounts at the moment. My instinct is that it will be the SE that gets the brunt of this but I could be way off the mark.
I'd certainly keep an eye on the EA flood line for any rivers in the area of the hike.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

interestingly metoffice graphics suggest some snow for the back part of Sunday in the south. I'm somewhat puzzled by this as I'd expect the airmass in the storm to be pretty 'warm'.

[PreachyPeachyRantsALot]

It's round a reservoir but not one I have ever visited. Hmm, I think I might be pulling up a few detailed reports tomorrow ta.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

ermmmm.
ok severn bore is supposed to be exceptionally high on the 2nd March and high on the 1st (Monday)
It is rather a blessing that the storm if it comes off is due through on Sunday. The combination, if they worked in tandem could be exceptional.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

severn bore
not sure how they would interact but it is actually quite high on Sunday.

as I know nothing about the subject, can anyone enlighten me?

[PreachyPeachyRantsALot]

What is it you need to know about it?

Only know a little mind becuase I come from another bore town.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I'd like to know how susceptible it is to weather influences please

does the wind either dampen down or amplify the effect based on direction?

When surrounding lands are saturated does the bore increase flooding risk?

how robust are flood defences along the Severn?

That kind of thing please

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

found a little info here
of course all of this could be completely off topic

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

and a news report here
soory, tis all interesting stuff to me.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

ok, putting aside the interesting Severn bore bit, I'm still keeping a close eye on sundays storm. The models are all over the place as you'd expect. First one to spot met office advisories for it gets a free weather guess forecast.

[tvaerialmagpiebin]

I'll tell you what, Kitten, the Bore is Boring. Everyone gets really worked up about it and there are queues and queues of traffic all up the A48 and hordes of people in unsuitable shoes standing on the bank. Then some jerk comes along on a surf board, there is a bit of rushing water and that's it. The local paper loves it as there is always a "Plucky Canoeist in Bore Drama" story for them to waste a few pages on, tourists love it because they can witter on meaningfuly about neap tides, but people from Glos think quite frankly that it is overrated.
And don't get me started on the poxy cheese rolling.....

[petunia]

We got a forecast of the possibility of heavy rain/high winds on Sunday, on our local TV news just before 7pm. There were lots of "it depends where the low positions itself as to what happens" and that there "might be snow over the peak district". The BBC forecast though is saying sleet for us on Sunday, no mention of heavy rain at all.
I'm not sure I'd want to be standing on a river bank looking out for the Severn bore after the last few months of wet/snowy weather, even more so after a storm!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

lol at your desciption lanky!