Latest El Niño forecast is up.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

here We are currently in an El Niño and there is 80% probability of El Niño lasting into early Spring next year. It looks as though it will be a strong one. There is some speculation that it may be the strongest on record here.

It doesn't necessarily mean that we are going to get a super cold winter. Two out of the last three strong El Niños were not. 82/83 was an unremarkable winter. 97/98 was notable both for its warmth and its storminess. 2009/10 was bitingly cold though. The effect on the climate of the uK by El Niño is quite weak compared to other factors. It may bring a welcome break to the drought in California however.

So at the moment 'it's a watch this space'. I will update through the season when the next forecast comes in.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

ps, ignore the express. Whilst one scenario is for a stormy winter, rather than a very cold one (depending on strength and position of the jet stream) as usual it is going completely off the deep end!

[LadySharrowOfGolter]

Watching with interest

[mankyscotslass]

Thanks OYBBK.

[lalamumto3]

Thank you, will watch this

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

You are welcome :) its sort of a 'watch this space' post.

[Perihelion]

Our Scottish "summer" is behaving like the one we had in 2009.....

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Interesting Peri.

[SideOrderofChips]

I'm really interested in the El Nino phenomenom and the idea of what winter it will bring so i am watching this space

[LittleBairn]

I came on especially to find out what El Niño has in store for us this winter like peri this Scottish summer wash out and in particularly the dark light reminds me of the Summer before the 09 winter when we had knee deep snow.

[Northernlurker]

OTW evidently.

[digerd]

SE.
I have noticed for some months now that the sun had an autumn paleness about it and now at the beginning of August it seems more like October .
Despite the UV levels having been high which is even more confusing.

We desperately need more rain for the flora as some trees are looking on the autumnal colour change already .

[TheWoollybacksWife]

Digerd I agree about the light looking Autumnal.

I'm looking out of the window this morning and thinking the weather looks like a "starting back at school day" rather than the day after we returned from holiday - DH used to laugh at me (any excuse to get the slow cooker out and put the heating on) as I have said this for a couple of years, but this year he agrees with me.

[senua]

Yes, I've noticed some trees changing colour already!

[GloriaSmud]

Woollybacks and digerd ~ I 'get' the changing light thing as well. My next door neighbour comes from a big Irish farming family and he agrees with me, that you can smell/sense the change in seasons weeks before they happen.
Here, we have Autumn-coloured leaved blowing about already. It feels like this year more than ever, Autumn has begun before summer has started and that's with this week (for the midlands and southern areas at least) being one of the best weeks weather-wise that we've had for a while!

[SideOrderofChips]

Yes i have to admit when i go out to hang the washing out its almost like a 'september washing day' then 'August summer holiday'

We're having on off hot days but nothing major. Certainly not sweltering. It does feel like the summer of 09

[ptumbi]

KNow what you mean - I've been picking blackberries! Not usually about until Sept at the earliest

[Greengardenpixie]

Wet and windy today. Just feel like gettting back to sleep and hibernating!!! Definetly more like Autumn :(

[Perihelion]

Scotland on for the coldest summer since 1972 ( another El Nino year ) although I don't think that winter was notable.

[SwedeDreams]

Marking my place, I wish there was a link between this and a cold winter. Would very much like some snow this year (London so no chance).

My sympathies are with Scotland- it sounds like it's been a really awful summer.

[SideOrderofChips]

I would just like a winter that is cold and dry to be honest with you. not wet and mild

[ilovechristmas1]

my bedding plants and herbs are looking very sickly

my mint plant has stopped growing and looks like it normally does late september

really need to take some of the bedding plants out,but the garden is going to look bare and horrible

[GloriaSmud]

Bedding plants not looking too great here either ~ hanging baskets and tubs are better though. The only place where things are doing well is the allotment ~ potatoes have been good and looks like it's going to be a good year for marrows and beans.

[SideOrderofChips]

its not hitting the temperatures it normally hits here in Jersey. a temperature of 23oC is being considered high when thts normally considered low for the summer

[WandaFuca]

There's a large, toxic, algae bloom off the west coast of the USA:

www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/news/features/west_coast_algal_bloom/index.cfm

That report doesn't say anything about El Nino, but I wonder if there's a connection?

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Ill have a look at that tomorrow Wanda. back from my hols now :)