Looking like an El Niño year.

(48 Posts)

Very briefly, more later!

Looks like its going to be an El Niño year this year. How is it going to affect our weather? Well, for the summer, the affect on Europe really isnt understood. It tends to get swamped by other factors. However it does seem to be associated with very cold winters.

So there you go, your first winter 2014-15 weather forecast grin

captainmummy Wed 23-Apr-14 08:40:52

Not another cold winter! 3 in a row, then 1 wet, then cold again? I'm emigrating to spain.

VivaLeBeaver Wed 23-Apr-14 08:41:37

Didnt the last El Niño summer have lots of rain?

magimedi Wed 23-Apr-14 09:10:06

It's going to be a long hot summer.

I've said it before - I've ordered it! grin

Its true that in the last El Niño year (2009) had that extraordinarily wet July but ironically that was the year the Met office forecast the famous 'bbq summer' grin That following winter saw the most severe winter in 30 years.

I think that as its not really forecast to get into a proper El Niño until the summer, its not really going to influence our summer. It takes time for the effects to propogate world wide. Remember this is a phenomenon based around ocean circulation in the pacific.

Meglet Wed 23-Apr-14 20:30:05

I had smashing sunflowers in Summer 09. Never had anything like it since.

I can't even get my sunflower seeds to hatch this year sad I shall try harder just in case!

digerd Fri 25-Apr-14 20:50:22

SE>
The first rainy dull, miserable day for ages today.
When I was into all the bother of seedsowing etc, I bought a heated propagating covered tray which sprouted practically overnight.
Never tried Sunflowers though.
Like the thought of yours hatching like birds and chicksgrin and the cat on your head grin

grin

GloriaSmud Sat 26-Apr-14 08:43:43

Lol at the first 2014-2015 winter forecast <makes notes for reference purposes for when winter arrives>

ophiotaurus Sat 26-Apr-14 08:46:37

Maybe I'll get to use the sledge I bought last October this year then!
Really hope it's not a wet summer. We were very lucky last year.

PollyCazaletWannabe Sat 26-Apr-14 08:51:14

Thank you OYBBK smile so what is the summer looking like this year please?

PaulinesPen Sat 26-Apr-14 08:52:54

Um so is El Nino supposed to = good or bad summer?(generally speaking). I'm confused. If it's bad I won't bother emerging from hibernation.

Paulines, you will see claims that they lead to a hot dry summer, but I think the evidence is weak for that. Much more evidence on how it affects winters.

I actually have no idea how this summer will turn out grin

MsBumble Sat 26-Apr-14 10:25:35

Last summer was lovely. I'm hoping for some warm weather this year so I can get out and about with my newborn and shed my excess baby fat.

BuzzardBird Sat 26-Apr-14 10:27:37

Weather be predicted more than 5 days ahead.

PaulinesPen Sat 26-Apr-14 12:51:30

Thanks Kittengrin Ooh I really hope it's long and hot this year though. And yes last year was so nice - we were lucky. I can put up with a rubbish winter better if I think a nice summer will follow. No more rain though, please no more endless rain. Gawd I thought we were going to have to build an ark at one point last winter. And when it rains constantly in the summer it seems doubly depressing especially in a blimmin tent.

Thanks Kitten.

Is it predicted to be a strong event?

Oh gawd. I am pregnant, due in October. I would like a cool dry summer and a mild dry winter!!

But, but, but… I was under the impression you made the weather shock, Kitten? <lost and bewildered>

Waddaya mean you 'don't know what the weather is going to be like' this summer?! sad

grin

Manky, NOAA say they don't know how strong it will be yet. ENSO neutral for the rest of spring and then looking like it will become positive this summer or autumn.

HesterShaw Mon 28-Apr-14 12:05:15

But, but, but… I was under the impression you made the weather shock, Kitten? <lost and bewildered>

I thought that too <indignant> Have you been misleading us? grin

Anyway, everyone says last summer was great. Actually that's not technically correct. July was great, and August was decent. The rest was the same old same old, and it was freezing until June. Then the long wet winter started at the end of September. However we had good autumn leaves.

I'm uneasy when I remember that good Marches and Aprils have turned into awful summers in the last few years.

However I know nothing.

Hester, you understand me.

And yy to last summer - the 3 weeks that we had nice weather here last July (Scotland) we spent on the Continent sweltering in 35+C heat. We left in rain and returned to rain.
No, I am Not Bitter hmm

BorisJohnsonsHairdresser Mon 28-Apr-14 13:50:54

Cold in winter you say, blow me.

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