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BadKitten's Christmas forecast thread.

570 replies

OhYouMerryLittleKitten · 08/12/2013 10:57

A just for fun thread! Remember I’m not a professional and it’s important not to base decisions on what I say in forecasting threads as I may very well get it wrong. At this point in time I am looking at GFS, as other charts come into range I will start discussing those too. I’m also looking at the GFS ensembles (which at present as you would expect have a wide range of solutions, most of which are mild). The forecast will change as we go along considering how far out we are at present.

In general over the next couple of weeks we seem to be kept in mild southerlies or south-westerly’s, with more potential for storms and there isn’t much promise of a cold Christmas. The 24th December has finally made into the range of the GFS. What a chart!! It shows a deep low which would bring severe gales and a mix of heavy snow (for some) and heavy rain (for most) across the UK with the snow risk being greater the further north you are.

It’s a stonker of a chart, but probably not a welcome one!

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SpottyChristmasCakes · 08/12/2013 13:44

Boo I hate rain!

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OhYouMerryLittleKitten · 08/12/2013 13:47

It wouldn't be very Christmasy would it? Really hope that chart doesn't come off, there would be a lot of damage -again.

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SpottyChristmasCakes · 08/12/2013 13:49

I would prefer it to snow at Christmas to be honest. We're in the sticks with steep narrow hills on all exits! Rain is miserable though. Bright and cold for me please Smile

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Perihelion · 08/12/2013 15:23

Nooooooo! Am actually lookng forward to Xmas for once, as have chucked dull relative duty and am gong to a pals house for relaxed fun. This requires travel and crossing the Forth Bridge. Happy to get snowed/stormed in when we get there, but not before! Although on the very unscientific basis of my memory, interesting weather usually starts on Christmas day evening. Have drven home more than a few times, with the snow starting. Also remember Boxing day 1998, where the neighbour's wndows got blown in. Hogmanay is also quite popular for wind in Edinburgh.......

Currently a totally unseasonable 12C.

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OhYouMerryLittleKitten · 08/12/2013 15:36

oh how fickle gfs is! The 06Z model run shows a very benign Christmas eve! Maybe a bit of frost around.

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OhYouMerryLittleKitten · 08/12/2013 19:33

The storm is back again in the latest run but with the centre to the north of Scotland rather than over it bringing in stormy but mild conditions.

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Perihelion · 08/12/2013 21:51

That's not necessarily cheering me up Kitten, wasn't this week's storm centre just to the North of Scotland too? If you ignore Shetland...

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OhYouMerryLittleKitten · 08/12/2013 23:06

It's not terribly reassuring, though I've not looked at it in detail. I suspect it will be different tomorrow.

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OhYouMerryLittleKitten · 09/12/2013 08:35

Christmas day is almost in our reach on GFS with the model taking us up to midnight on Christmas Eve.

This time the model shows a nice little high pressure over us - giving a cold dry Christmas eve and some hints of rain or snow moving in on Christmas day.

Will update after lunch to see what happens next!

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TwentiethCenturyGirl · 09/12/2013 08:46

Oh, fingers crossed for some Christmassy weather. This mild grey cloud is so unfestive. I want cold frosty mornings and blue skies please!

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GloriaSmud · 09/12/2013 10:40

'Tis not right or festive this weather.
But for those that are missing cold and snow, Lapland is looking snowy (click on a blue camera to see a different place) this morning, with temepratures in some places down to -39C overnight Xmas Shock

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DameDeepRedBetty · 09/12/2013 10:46

Ooooo goody goody goody a BadKitten weather page!

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TweenageAngst · 09/12/2013 10:52

How about Marrakesh kitten? We are there at Christmas

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OhYouMerryLittleKitten · 09/12/2013 12:15

Marrakesh! I'll have to look up where it is on a map first Blush

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OhYouMerryLittleKitten · 09/12/2013 12:18

The gfs I look at doesnt reach that far south. The ECMWF model does - give me a prod in 5 days.

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purplepippininapeartree · 09/12/2013 14:08

We are in Aberdeenshire for christmas, is it looking like we may get some snow ? I'm in the south east and it's so mild haven't even got the hats and gloves out yet.

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OhYouMerryLittleKitten · 09/12/2013 14:27

It might be better if I answer specific questions next week as GFS is swinging wildly between high pressure in charge and monster storm. In the latest model run monster storm wins!

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TweenageAngst · 09/12/2013 18:39

OK will do. As long as it avoids the monster storm Grin

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OhYouMerryLittleKitten · 09/12/2013 18:42

Monster storm is a boxing day storm this model run.

Its going to be a long 2 weeks this! Xmas Grin

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oricella · 09/12/2013 18:44

Really can't do with another storm up here; lots of beautiful old trees come down, leaving the ones standing even more vulnerable. On the plus side, a couple of afternoons out with the chain saw and we're a long way forward on next winter's wood supply!

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OhYouMerryLittleKitten · 09/12/2013 18:45

I don't need another storm either - I've run out of places to put logs!

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oricella · 09/12/2013 18:50

Grin - I'm sure we could find some space if we had to, but overall I prefer the trees standing

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IamInvisible · 09/12/2013 18:53

Oh, please don't let it snow!

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Perihelion · 09/12/2013 22:36

Grin, see as I unscientifically noted, interesting weather starts xmas day evening.....Xmas Wink

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OhYouMerryLittleKitten · 10/12/2013 07:55

This model run shows a storm on the 18th, strong winds til Christmas Eve or so and then a storm grazes Scotland and another storm following Boxing Day.

At the moment it looks mild and wild I'm afraid.

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