BadKitten's Christmas forecast thread.

(571 Posts)
OhYouMerryLittleKitten Sun 08-Dec-13 10:57:36

A just for fun thread! Remember I’m not a professional and it’s important not to base decisions on what I say in forecasting threads as I may very well get it wrong. At this point in time I am looking at GFS, as other charts come into range I will start discussing those too. I’m also looking at the GFS ensembles (which at present as you would expect have a wide range of solutions, most of which are mild). The forecast will change as we go along considering how far out we are at present.

In general over the next couple of weeks we seem to be kept in mild southerlies or south-westerly’s, with more potential for storms and there isn’t much promise of a cold Christmas. The 24th December has finally made into the range of the GFS. What a chart!! It shows a deep low which would bring severe gales and a mix of heavy snow (for some) and heavy rain (for most) across the UK with the snow risk being greater the further north you are.

It’s a stonker of a chart, but probably not a welcome one!

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Tue 10-Dec-13 07:55:13

This model run shows a storm on the 18th, strong winds til Christmas Eve or so and then a storm grazes Scotland and another storm following Boxing Day.

At the moment it looks mild and wild I'm afraid.

BiscuitsandBaileys Tue 10-Dec-13 11:29:25

For the first time ever I'm hoping it doesn't snow this Christmas as we are flying to Lapland on the 22nd! grin

Don't mind getting stuck out there though.....

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Tue 10-Dec-13 13:30:21

Timing of the various gales and storms has moved around on the latest run but nevertheless, at the moment windy and mild seems to be the order of the day.

SpottyChristmasCakes Tue 10-Dec-13 14:42:05

Humph. We're going to London on 18th hmm

johnworf Tue 10-Dec-13 15:26:48

Is any of the snow on the east coast of the US going to make it's way here?

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Tue 10-Dec-13 16:45:00

johnworf - not as snow at present.

knittedslippersx3 Tue 10-Dec-13 16:49:18

I'm in Suffolk and I'll take anything but snow. If you could arrange that for me Kitten, I'd be very grateful!grin

Fluffy40 Tue 10-Dec-13 16:55:31

In Essex. Lots of snow Christmas Eve, with a rapid thaw on Boxing Day please!

I know it won't.

Meglet Tue 10-Dec-13 23:02:40

<Comes back sheepishly after trying, and failing to understand the hi-tech maps on net weather>.

Although on the jetstream map it did look a little crazy over xmas / boxing day. That must be the potential bad weather then confused.

I don't want a storm, my fence is wobbly and I can't afford to get it fixed. A foot of snow would prop it up a bit grin.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Wed 11-Dec-13 08:26:40

Once again the timing of the storms/gales differs on GFS, but nevertheless it still shows a mild and wild Christmas period.

GloriaSmud Wed 11-Dec-13 10:00:31

Meglet ~ grin snow is renowned for its fence propping abilities!

I think, from my very limited understanding of weather models, colder stuff isn't very far away. It's all out west at the moment and being kept there by the great wodge of high pressure that we've got sitting over us at the moment. So 'tis great for the heating bills but a bit 'meh' and not very festive for those that like a bit of the white stuff at this time of year.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Wed 11-Dec-13 11:02:43

That's not really the case Gloria as when the high pressure collapses and moves off into Europe more as its starting to do so over this week we are going to end up with milder much more Atlantic driven weather. Next week looks very unsettled but not cold.

gaggiagirl Wed 11-Dec-13 11:06:06

I want snow! I want snow!

<stamps foot and wails>

I would like some snow but only on or after 28th December. Too much driving to do before then!

SpottyChristmasCakes Wed 11-Dec-13 12:57:42

I can't believe how foggy it still is shock oybbk is it going to clear?

GloriaSmud Wed 11-Dec-13 13:09:29

Ah, I got the wrong sort of weather out west ~ back to the model reading lessons!

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Wed 11-Dec-13 13:31:26

They are having a loooot of snow on the east coast of the US!

I'm just reading up on the Lake Effect Snow warnings that the USA have out now, it's really interesting, but some of the amounts of snow that fall as a result are mind boggling!

GloriaSmud Wed 11-Dec-13 14:19:17

Perhaps they've got our snow ~ they should really think about sharing just a little bit of it!

GloriaSmud Wed 11-Dec-13 14:30:23

Just spotted the metoffice have some weather warnings out for strong winds/gales for Saturday and Sunday, for Scotland/northern England.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Wed 11-Dec-13 14:42:57

I'm not totally surprised they have warnings out tbh, all the main models have the storm going north of Scotland bringing gales, but if it develops a little further south it could be pretty nasty again.

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Wed 11-Dec-13 14:43:22

I think they should share their snow too!

OhYouMerryLittleKitten Thu 12-Dec-13 08:10:47

Manic morning!!

Latest GFS outlook for Christmas is wet and windy but some northern hill snow. Air looks more polar maritime in origin this am. (Ie a bit colder)

GloriaSmud Thu 12-Dec-13 09:35:22

Today's offering from the Express and this week it's going to be 'The Christmas from HELL' with the 'biggest winter storm EVER.'
I'm sensing some desperation together with a heavy dose of exaggeration going on. Maybe we need a thread dedicated to 'weather in the media' and then we can laugh hysterically examine critically the forecasting abilities of the Express/Daily Mail.

GloriaSmud Thu 12-Dec-13 09:56:37

'Tis not just the US that has had problems with snow, Cyprus has had extreme cold as well!

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