Possible severe gales on Monday 28th.

(955 Posts)
OhYouWickedWickedWitch Wed 23-Oct-13 14:10:38

I'm keeping a pretty close eye on developments for Monday. some of the models (in particular gfs) are showing a deep low developing over England, with the majority of the gfs runs taking the worst of the wind over the south.

Massive if. But if the weather were to pan out as those models are suggesting it would be a damaging storm, especially given the trees still being in leaf. I'd keep an eye on the met office early warnings page and if they start warning about it then it would be a good weekend to tidy the garden before you lose your stuff wink

I'll update as things become clearer.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 14:20:17

So where is this storm coming from?

We have a frontal wave on the western side of the Atlantic. It looks like it will interact with a very strong Jet Stream. Add in an upper trough coming down from Newfoundland, bringing in cold air and moist tropical air coming from the south and if they all interact just right you end up with an explosively deepening low.

The 1987 storm snuck in from the Bay of Biscay.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 14:21:40

29chapel. I'm not an aviation expert, but if the forecast doesnt change I'd expect some disruption.
I think that one of the main issues will be getting to the airport if we do get 70-80mph gusts.

29chapel Fri 25-Oct-13 14:24:46

ok thank you, i'll allow additional time to get there. I don't think i know what 80mph winds feel like to be honest!

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 14:25:16

Stick your head out of your car window down the motorway grin

I'm in Somerset too Theimpossiblegirl. Surrounded by trees. Will be spending tomorrow tidying the garden I think.

Theimpossiblegirl Fri 25-Oct-13 14:27:46

I see how you got your name- it's your sense of humour.
wink

Theimpossiblegirl Fri 25-Oct-13 14:29:11

I can see this thread becoming the place where we sit the storm out together. smile

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 14:41:48

grin

Apparently the storm is going to be called St Jude - cos Monday is St Jude's day.

ElbowPrincess Fri 25-Oct-13 14:54:27

Anything at all for Scotland?

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 15:11:37

At the moment it looks doubtful Elbowprincess though if it tracks further north then flooding could be an issue for you.

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 15:13:08

good read for those who want to watch it develop on Satellite.

maudpringle Fri 25-Oct-13 15:29:48

Getting nervous now. Haven't spoken to dh yet so I am not sure if he is aware of the weather warning.
Somerset here too.

QuintsHollow Fri 25-Oct-13 15:32:19

Oh, what will it be like in Bournemouth?

mummylin Fri 25-Oct-13 15:35:21

Hello quints hollow, I too am in Bournemouth !

Another Somerset here too! Off to tidy up the garden...

QuintsHollow Fri 25-Oct-13 15:41:19

Hi there mummylin, long time no speak!

We have chosen Bournemouth as our half term weekend break.....

<wibble>

Might have to get the heck out of the area after Breakfast, en route to Bealieu for the Top Gear ...

OhYouWickedWickedWitch Fri 25-Oct-13 15:44:52

will update more this evening smile

digerd Fri 25-Oct-13 15:57:47

The 1987 storm was also in October caused by cold polar air meeting tropical warm air and large differnces in the 2 pressure systems < not that I understand any of that> Did learn at school, many moons ago about how thunder and lightning was caused and that was similar - warm air meeting colder air.
18 degrees atm.

RustyBear Fri 25-Oct-13 16:11:14

Isn't St Jude the patron saint of desperate situations? We might all be praying to him come Monday... grin

Watching with interest. We live 50 yards from the sea on an exposed part of the coast in south Cornwall. We look directly out into the Channel grin.

It's already rather gusty here although incredibly warm and sunny. Sitting out on the deck with a cuppa and planning what to tie down...

VirtuousVamp Fri 25-Oct-13 16:43:43

Ooh it's does sound exciting but as I said before only if everyone is safe. Assuming plane lands on Sunday eve, I assume my car journey east into kent may not be advisable on Monday morning!!

maudpringle Fri 25-Oct-13 16:53:45

Thank you OYWWW

HesterShaw Fri 25-Oct-13 17:40:10

I'm getting more than slightly nervous. It's still telling us on xcweather that we'll be ok here.

<scurries off to check ugrib>

digerd Fri 25-Oct-13 17:42:49

Starfish envy. Warm here but sun behind all the trees and sky collecting more clouds now.

HesterShaw Fri 25-Oct-13 17:43:04

Hmmm. Even the Grib isn't saying anything more than about 45mph WNW.

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