2013/2014 Winter - Should we be getting ready for 'snowmageddon'?

[johnworf]

According to this article, based on past winters and other factors, this winter could be a very chilly one.

I don't understand half of the things used to predict why this may be but I'm wondering if I should start making sure we're ready for it, should it come?

[johnworf]

It would help if the link worked

www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/winter-2013-14-forecast/

[johnworf]

www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/winter-2013-14-forecast/

[orangeandemons]

I've read other articles that this winter is going to be bad too. . However, I remember reading the same about winter 11/12, and it was mild.

[johnworf]

Apols for all the links but I couldn't get the previous ones to work for some reason.

[Wiifitmama]

Well I bloody hope so! This is the first year I have bought snow boots, coats, trousers, hats etc for everyone as we are going to Austira in January. I thought that in itself would stop it ever snowing in London this year!

[OhYouBadBadDragon]

I don't do seasonal forecasting :)

[johnworf]

OYBBK is this just speculation then?

[OhYouBadBadDragon]

I think it is. Us humans like to look for patterns and find them where none exist. My belief (which may be false!) is that things are becoming even more unpredictable than before.

In a few days I might have a look to see for myself what all the 'predictors' like the North Atlantic Oscillation are forecast to do, but it will be for fun only! Today I'm going to make the most of the lovely sunshine!

Suddenly dawned on me - its been a very quiet start to the US hurricane season. First tropical storm is only just forming.

[Abra1d]

OhYouBad

My daughter wants to have an 'outdoors' party the night of 14 Sept. Where could I go to have any idea of what the weather might do? I suspect you're going to tell me it's far too far ahead to be predictable, though?

[OhYouBadBadDragon]

It is rather early :-) but you can get an idea of the sort of thing that might happen on the text tab of your region on the met office site

For a snap shot GFS shows an advancing weather system but temps in the high teens in the day at the moment.

[ErrolTheDragon]

What sort of preparations were you thinking of making? Presumably we've all still got snow boots from a few years back so what else is there to do?

[johnworf]

I've got snowboots from last year and I've ordered myself a nice winter coat. No rock salt or snow shovels. Not sure why. Need glycerine to put in the chickens drinking water so stop it freezing

[OhYouBadBadDragon]

For me winter preps means getting logs in and salt. Plus of snow looks likely lots of cat litter for my cats.

[Abra1d]

Thanks, Ohyoubad!

[LumpySpacePrincessOhMyGlob]

First chilly morning, bliss.

[GloriaSmud]

T'was a chilly morning here ~ it got down to 8C overnight.
As for winter, I enjoy looking at different websites to see what they think winter's going to be like and seeing which one is right. TheWeatherOutlook have got their winter forecast here.

[digerd]

Just reporting in with the weather in SE troday.
Since 9 am is has been sunny and no more rain. 19 degrees atm.
No longer humid, hooray

[LumpySpacePrincessOhMyGlob]

Also in SE, much fresher today, lovely.

[johnworf]

Up in the North (Lancashire) it's been a chilly day at 11C. Intermittent heavy showers. Did anyone see the hail in cornwall during the week? It was a bit mad.

GloriasMud I like looking at different sites too but this one in particular. It's too technical for me although I understand hardly any bits of it.

[digerd]

Clear sky this morning and 7 degrees in the night and still is. That was a sudden plummet in temperature.
I can remember in 2001 or was it 2002, when I didn't need to put the heating on until 10th December. Time to put away my summer heatwave clothes. But not ready for my winter eskimo outfits just yet.

[GloriaSmud]

johnworf ~ that's a good site ~ another one to keep an eye on.
One thing that forecasters are beginning to think has some affect on our winters (as to whether they're cold or extra cold), is Sudden Stratospheric Warming (scroll down the page for the bit on warming.) I think forecasters are only just beginning to understand it though ~ I remember John Hammond appearing on The One Show earlier this year just as the really cold snap started in January and mentioning SSW and how they were only just beginning to understand how it works and affects our winters.

Beautiful morning here although it's been a cold night ~ 6C at 4.54am.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

SSWs are really hard to forecast with any advance timing!

[GloriaSmud]

I wouldn't expect a mention of SSW in any winter forecasts that these weather websites do at this time of year for that reason. I was just throwing it in as one of those interesting things that forecasters are only now beginning to understand and that they think it's connected to really cold snaps!

[digerd]

I'm beginning to regret what I wished for.. 7 degrees out last night again.
My sitting room went down to 18 degrees last night and still is and really needs the heating on.
I wanted an indian summer in Sept/Oct not winter .
We've certainly had extremes of temperatures this year.
Am I being unrealistic hoping it will warm up a bit into low 20s with night temps around 12 -15 degrees?

[johnworf]

I wore my new winter coat today for the first time.