Badkittens forecast for the coming week or so.

(382 Posts)

Ok.

Models I've looked at for this are GFS (incl ensembles, which I've chosen Oxfordshire as a base as its a goodish pick for central england) UKMO, ECMWF and NAE (for short term)

NAE (model goes to +48 hours)
Today shows snow in EA, north Wales and upwards at 18:00-00:00 it then thins the snow out to EA, nothern midlands (north England) and north east Scotland by morning through to the afternoon. It then shows precip petering out with just patches here and there. Worth noting how much it shows Northern Ireland getting by monday. Ice is going to be a massive problem for many over the next couple of days as max temps dont get above zero in many parts of England (away from the south and coastal areas) Wales and Scotland.

GFS: (model goes out to 9th April)
Shows a quieter picture next week in terms of precipitation (thank goodness as so many areas are beyond saturation). Signals are for precipitation to restart in earnest through the Easter weekend to about the 4th A fair bit of model agreement in the ensembles for this. Flooding quite possibly a problem again at Easter. Temps are cold throughout, perhaps a little warmer that the next few days but not looking like it will get beyond around 8C in the time period. Again ice will be a major short term problem for many.

UKMO (model goes out to 144 hours)
short term, EA has a lot of snow to come on this model tonight into tomorrow morning. It also shows a north-south precip divide with south of Lancashire(ish)/Yorkshire(ish) getting the precip tomorrow before it peters out. It then shows a relatively dry few days before thursday into Friday, where Good Friday may have difficult travel conditions. One to watch for sure!

ECMWF (model goes out to 240 hours)

similar to UKMO but then oh dear, on Good Friday a rather dodgy area of low pressure would bring the potential for widespread disruptive snow.

So, to summarise. All models in agreement for less precipitation after this weekend, but remaining cold. Ice a problem to start with and at night for many through the week. Towards the end of the week becoming unsettled again, with the chance for heavy rain or disruptive snow for Easter. No sign of Spring.

digerd Mon 22-Apr-13 09:07:12

And very warm this Wednesday. Talk about 'unsettled'. What is going on? confused angry

digerd Mon 22-Apr-13 09:02:09

S.Herts

Indeed. Yesterday morning little dog took me along the canal bank and was sunny, sheltered and warm. Unfortunately, I was stopped by a lovely chatty man and his dog, and she was sitting down full in the sun and got overheated in her thick fur coat.

She prefers it cold, so she should be all frisky again next Friday? When frost and cold returns < according to my newspaper> and snow in the north. confused with our weather patterns.

Should improve this week digerd smile

digerd Sun 21-Apr-13 06:55:22

S.Herts

Disappointing cold wind yesterday and last night -1, frost on the grass but a clear sky again.

A week ago we had +10 minimum in the night, and now -1 and frosty. What is that all about 3rd week in April?
Not good enough!!

digerd Sat 20-Apr-13 10:18:35

S. Herts.

Could well have been. Was that the year we had our summer in April and then turned cold until September when we had an 'indian summer'?

Night temps plummeted to 0 in the early hours, with a clear sky and sunshine today. Azure blue sky with strong sunshine, but atm lovely and fresh air. Hope it stays like it.

thebeastandbeauty Fri 19-Apr-13 22:18:41

Digerd - the heating on during May and August bank holidays I have a strong recollection of being 2009...

ChippingInLovesSpring Fri 19-Apr-13 22:14:19

Thank you my lovely - will make 'Sunny Day' plans smile

Thank you flowers

Chipping, should be fine til Sunday evening when it might get a bit damp. In fact tomorrow should be lovely.

ChippingInLovesSpring Fri 19-Apr-13 19:45:12

Hello OYBBK are you around??

Just wondering if you've had time to have a look at what we might expect this weekend? Just trying to work out what to do with a guest I have staying and it's all a bit weather dependant smile

digerd Tue 16-Apr-13 21:11:14

S.Herts
It got sunnier in the afternoon and temp rose to 18 in the shade and was nice and warm .
The sheep in the field next to dog walk have little lambs now - so cute- and felt even more like Spring.

digerd Tue 16-Apr-13 13:21:27

S.Herts
16 degrees today, so going down each day. We have more cloud in SE today than the rest of the country apparently < annoyed face>

And my gloveless hands were really cold from the wind this morning at 11 am.

GloriaSmud Tue 16-Apr-13 10:37:52

Another lovely Spring day ~ we're up to 13.8c atm and the min last night was 9.5c. A lot of the tadpoles in the 2nd clump of frogspawn we had are beginning to look more 'tadpole shaped' now and will probably hatch in a few days. Unfortunately a lot of the ones from the 1st lot have died because of the cold a few weeks ago.

It's amazing what a bit of warmth can do ~ the hedges are beginning to look a bit more green and I saw my 1st butterfly of the year yesterday. I also had to evict a rather drowsy looking bumble bee from our kitchen this morning!

digerd Mon 15-Apr-13 15:38:36

ps
Put my eskimo outfits away yesterday - have I tempted fate?

digerd Mon 15-Apr-13 15:36:03

One year the heron took most of my fish, only left the tiddlers, and haven't seen any yet so far this year.

This afternoon dog's walk was warmer than this morning, but only got to 18 degrees in the shade. < warm enough for me in the sun>.

Jux Mon 15-Apr-13 13:33:28

I need a frog spawn cage to protect it from the fish - if any spawn appears this year <hopeful>

digerd Mon 15-Apr-13 10:45:10

S. Herts
The mildest night so far @ 10 degrees. Lots of sun again , but the wind is colder.
Last April night temps were around +2/4 most of the time, and didn't get + 10 until 7th MAY !! Then went down again.

Just checked the frogspawn in pond and one clump has risen to the top. Can't see if they have developed any further , but hopeful they have survived.

My only Camelia planted in the ground the largest and oldest, has one bloom atm. <smile>

Jux Sun 14-Apr-13 23:53:37

Ooh, will do that. I drink tons of the stuff. Thank you.

Jux, have you tried feeding your camellia tea? Left over tea bags or leaves are ace for sickly camellias.

Jux Sun 14-Apr-13 21:11:33

My camellias have come out, but it's a bit windy for them so petals will be blown of quickly. The leaves are sickly looking though sad

Glad there's not too much rain expected. Shame about the cold. I was just getting used to the idea that I didn't need 4 or 5 layers when I went out!

Maybe it is a girl frog. That would be cool smile we've only had the pond a year but last year loads of frogs came to visit.

Poor camellia. sad so far so good on mine.

TheNebulousBoojum Sun 14-Apr-13 16:37:25

Beautiful sunshine and warm here in Sussex, ble sky and small wispy clouds. Been like that all day.

digerd Sun 14-Apr-13 16:35:01

Too tired to look through my diaries, but remember one year, when it was so cold on May and August bank holidays people put their heating back on. It was only a few years ago.

Are we in for a cold Whitsun, I wonder.?

Another larger Camelia is beginning to open, but the one farthest away from the house, its buds have rotted.

digerd Sun 14-Apr-13 16:06:51

Perhaps he's looking for a late season bit of 'porn'. Not much hope with just one on its own. Unless it's a female looking for a place to lay her fertilised eggs , <being that huge>

Mine must have happened during that mild week we had last month

Just got back from dogs walk at 3.30, and I was too hot in the sun. 21 degrees in shade still and a nice fresh breeze.
Probably a freak one off day here today.

No porn in my pond sad but one super huge frog swimming about.

Jux on and off yes more rain, but I think in general nothing too drastic.

More concerning is that GFS trends to colder weather in a few days time and has a pretty cold end of the month in many of the ensemble members.

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