Badkittens forecast for the coming week or so.

(382 Posts)

Ok.

Models I've looked at for this are GFS (incl ensembles, which I've chosen Oxfordshire as a base as its a goodish pick for central england) UKMO, ECMWF and NAE (for short term)

NAE (model goes to +48 hours)
Today shows snow in EA, north Wales and upwards at 18:00-00:00 it then thins the snow out to EA, nothern midlands (north England) and north east Scotland by morning through to the afternoon. It then shows precip petering out with just patches here and there. Worth noting how much it shows Northern Ireland getting by monday. Ice is going to be a massive problem for many over the next couple of days as max temps dont get above zero in many parts of England (away from the south and coastal areas) Wales and Scotland.

GFS: (model goes out to 9th April)
Shows a quieter picture next week in terms of precipitation (thank goodness as so many areas are beyond saturation). Signals are for precipitation to restart in earnest through the Easter weekend to about the 4th A fair bit of model agreement in the ensembles for this. Flooding quite possibly a problem again at Easter. Temps are cold throughout, perhaps a little warmer that the next few days but not looking like it will get beyond around 8C in the time period. Again ice will be a major short term problem for many.

UKMO (model goes out to 144 hours)
short term, EA has a lot of snow to come on this model tonight into tomorrow morning. It also shows a north-south precip divide with south of Lancashire(ish)/Yorkshire(ish) getting the precip tomorrow before it peters out. It then shows a relatively dry few days before thursday into Friday, where Good Friday may have difficult travel conditions. One to watch for sure!

ECMWF (model goes out to 240 hours)

similar to UKMO but then oh dear, on Good Friday a rather dodgy area of low pressure would bring the potential for widespread disruptive snow.

So, to summarise. All models in agreement for less precipitation after this weekend, but remaining cold. Ice a problem to start with and at night for many through the week. Towards the end of the week becoming unsettled again, with the chance for heavy rain or disruptive snow for Easter. No sign of Spring.

Saltire Mon 25-Mar-13 10:36:36

Hmm, not liking this reportgrin. Meant to be on A66 on friday then going down M6 to Manchester for 3 nights!

TeWiSavesTheDay Mon 25-Mar-13 10:57:43

Just back from a wedding in the snow. Now wondering about snowy easter.

I'm just grateful it's the easter holiday soon and I can stay inside with the kids instead of soldiering out in 'feels like' -8 weather.

Come on spring <sob>

Well Saltire, Manchester is not a problem in itself. We have NO SNOW!

The A66 might be a different matter though.

grants1000 Mon 25-Mar-13 11:28:37

We've not had a flake in Knutsford, Cheshire, not one flake!

grants we had a few flakes but nothing else - it certainly did not lie or last if it did!

3monkeys Mon 25-Mar-13 11:34:59

We had a horrific drive from the Wirral to Centerparcs in Cumbria on Friday. Next weekend we have to go to Bedford for Easter so please let it not snow!! My heart can't take it

grants1000 Mon 25-Mar-13 11:42:50

Yes my Mum is in Heswall and send us some fab thick now pics!

HesterShaw Mon 25-Mar-13 13:07:32

Mirage, that sounds dreadful sad

OYBBK is it true that as the "spring" progresses, IF this blocking high pressure over Scandinavia sinks a little bit south, things should warm up and we will see a marked change in the weather? Is it true? Can it be true? <hopes like loon>

PS excuse the familiarity. You do know me. I have namechanged recently!

morethanpotatoprints Mon 25-Mar-13 13:31:23

Grants

Never mind, the people in Knutsford can afford to have it flown in, surely. grin

Just kidding, I was brought up not so far away. smile

WildThong Mon 25-Mar-13 13:38:23

Is the snow coming back this weekend then? We still have a lot on the ground (south west from Glasgow). This winter seems never ending.

Just having a cup of tea and I'll have a look at the models smile

It's been sunny today, with a few very light snow flurries that never came to anything. Freezing cold but I have had 2 loads of washing dry on the line in the sun and wind!

BiddyPop Mon 25-Mar-13 15:05:01

OYBBK, is there any chance that the picture looks similar for Ireland, or any better?? We are travelling from east coast to west coast (middle of both) on Friday, and DH wants to use my car. I want to be sure my lil baby will survive!! (He has a volvo estate v my VW Golf - so I am not agreeing to this until later in the week).

ok, have really scoured them looking for significant changes.

First thing to note met office warnings for much of the NE for snow today and tomorrow. The activity seems to be pepping up rather.

scattered snow showers elsewhere.

Still a big question mark over Friday, latest model runs take the snow fest south away from the UK. (do the channel Islands need to be aware? perhaps)

And after that, signals are still for the cold to continue, perhaps not quite as cold. Less convincing signals for lots of precip for the week after Easter, but nevertheless, they are still there and its something we need to watch.

Going into fantasy land (second week of Easter), maybe, just maybe the first tiny hints of a warm up. Nothing dramatic showing yet.

will see if I can try to answer some more specific questions now.

Lindyhopper29 Mon 25-Mar-13 15:13:31

No snow here!

Brambles shock how many times have they had to eat the boys? do we need to let the authorities know?

Hester, the biggest thing i'm looking for at the moment is a warm up over eastern Europe, until that starts to really happen in earnest I think we are going to struggle, theres no real warm air for the HP to pull in at the moment.

Biddy, its a bit of a question mark at the moment as to exactly where the precip will go. GFS is taking the southern edge of Ireland into the precip and it could be snow. Out of interest, how did you do out of the fri/sat snow event?

wildthong, you could catch some more this weekend, I certainly wouldnt rule it out.

poledra, I certainly would keep an eye on forecasts closer to the time!

HesterShaw Mon 25-Mar-13 15:44:09

Hopefully it will happen soon. I'm freezing!

I read recently (incidentally it was in Deborah Devonshire's autobiography ^Wait for Me^) that the Mitford girls all attended the death of their mother in late spring 1963 on the Scottish island of Inchkenneth. It was approaching the Solstice and she said it was still absolutely freezing shock

LillethTheCat Mon 25-Mar-13 15:48:46

Well Im in that warning for today and we've had no snow. Its the wind that makes it so cold.

Ive given up for any hopes of warm weather now sad

lilleth, the warnings are for the evening and into tonight and where the snow ends up will be rather hit and miss.

brrr hester.

nellyjelly Mon 25-Mar-13 17:06:39

Easter in the Lake District. snow or no?

Marne Mon 25-Mar-13 17:12:57

No snow here in the sw smile, had a few flakes this morning but nothing major, so cold though, had to dress like i was trecking to the north pole just to take the dog for a walk.

Was watching the news earlier and someone said 'experts are saying there may be a heat wave towards the end of spring, when ever that is' so when is the end of spring? <crossing fingers that its may the 20th when we go on holiday>

GotMyGoat Mon 25-Mar-13 17:37:26

Where's Aslan when you need him?

41notTrendy Mon 25-Mar-13 17:51:10

nellyjelly us too, watching with interest to see how things pan out for Fri and beyond!!

nellyjelly Mon 25-Mar-13 18:02:37

41. Hoping for lovely snow on hills but clear roads!

Nellyjelly dunno. (Yet)

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