Temperatures - this met office probability thingy is saying that we have a 40-60% chance of it being colder than average BUT if you look at Europe it shows europe as being most likely to have a near average winter. So the cold wouldnt necc becoming from the east.
Precipitation - shows no weighting to any of the probability ranges - so it could be anything from more than normal to less than normal or somewhere in the middle!
The outer quintile categories are quite interesting.
GFS shows a fairly typical November this week, cooling down to widespread single digit temps for the last week in November. Right at the end of the month it hints at the atlantic winning again, so no prolonged blocking showing (which would lead to proper cold temps. However of course the battle between mild and cold can always be interesting along the leading edge in winter.
So to summarise. Nothing drastic showing up yet for the next couple of weeks, but if gfs were utterly accurate (which it wont be in this timescale) the end of the month could cause some brief fun. As for the rest of the winter, there arent really any strong signals as far as I can see for anything too exciting, but at the moment, the odds might be in favour of something cold, but who knows on the snow front!!!!!
There cannot be any snow. I have moved my DS to a different school and I have to drive him 6 miles through the countryside to the bus stop. His old school was half a mile away. When deciding to move him the snow was the only thing on the 'Cons' side of the list. <worries>
For those that love snow, some snowy scenes from the webcams of Iceland!
As for us, think there's still a cold snap coming towards the end of this month but it's more of a frosty nature rather than the snowy sort. Obviously hiding our snow gear is working for the moment! <Hides DDs wellies and ignores hole in my winter boots.>
There's a theory on Metmonkey that the buying of winter coats and boots has the power to put off a snowy winter. I myself have suggested to my parents that they could buy a sledge for DDs as a possible Christmas present and told them that's a sure fire way to stop any snow/cold weather arriving!
Hope OYBBK's OK ~ haven't 'seen' her about recently.
Are yes, the Express are good at weather forecasting; snort at your leisure at this one from earlier this year!!!
Looking at some other weather websites, I think they're split on the winter we might have. I think some weather models are hinting at a cold snap at the end of November and some of the posters on the Met-monkey messageboard have taken this and run with it. There's a lot of talk of what the stratosphere is doing and whether it's cooling down/warming up as that could make our winter cold/warm. It's mentioned on there that the metoffice (I can't find the metoffice page atm) are forecasting for there to be below average temperatures and Netweather are saying this. So below average temps are what some are going for atm but whether that means actual snow remains to be seen!