It's polling day, how many seats do you think the SNP will actually win?

(85 Posts)
Jackieharris Thu 07-May-15 06:34:59

We should know them all except argyll & bute by 5am.

Even Nicola sturgeon is shaking her head at 59.

According to the herald the other day labour are focussing on keeping their big guns in-Murphy, Alexander, Curran and a couple of others I'd never heard of! So I think they will all be fine.

For the lib dems I think Carmichael, Kennedy and swinson will survive.

The Tory seat: I haven't heard much about.

I think if they get 30+ that would be amazing and it's a shame that the media are probably going to label them as failures whatever they get because the polls have been so high. Their record was 12. Anything over 20 would never have been predicted before last year.

I'll take a guess and say 34. I think it won't be an even swing because a lot of seats will depend on where there is an incumbent or not and if the incumbent has been a good local mp.

Weather and turnout will also be factors.

There will also probably be controversy of people discovering they aren't registered to vote under the new system.

As a feminist I also really hope the number of male and female winners is closer to 50% but that's quite optimistic!

What are other mumsnetters' guesses?

LineRunner Thu 07-May-15 06:41:52

Philomena Cunk said 45 last night and that's good enough for me. And Barry Shitpeas didn't disagree.

OneMagnumisneverenough Thu 07-May-15 10:35:55

Each one they win is one too many in my book.

OneMagnumisneverenough Thu 07-May-15 10:39:36

...and as a human being, I dont care whether there are equal amounts of men and woman, i'd just hope that the people voted in have commitment, compassion and integrity regardless of what they happen to have between their legs. I've met as many female arseholes as I have men.

StaceyAndTracey Thu 07-May-15 13:59:50

I think 43 but hope for more

And I also hope there a high turnout , especially of voters usually ignored by politicians, such as women and young people

Jackieharris Thu 07-May-15 14:07:25

Stacey yes it will be interesting if the turnout is in the region of the referendum or back down to what it usually is for a general election.

Viviennemary Thu 07-May-15 14:09:58

I thought around 54/55.

GrouchyKiwi Thu 07-May-15 14:12:15

I think around 35 too.

Our polling station was actually busier than when I voted for the referendum so I'm hoping it's a good turnout.

Jackieharris Thu 07-May-15 15:45:21

There are 59 seats vivienne.

Currently 6 SNP, 11 lib dem, 1 Tory and 41 labour.

JackSkellington Thu 07-May-15 16:22:55

At the very least half, but I expect more. All would be great, but I highly doubt it.

chocoluvva Thu 07-May-15 16:51:34

Lib Dem and Snp are apparently neck and neck in East Dunbartonshire. The incumbent has a good record of working on 'women's issues'.

ItsAllGoingToBeFine Thu 07-May-15 16:55:52

I reckon something in the forties?

It'd worth remembering though that their previous best ever was 11 mps

AgentProvocateur Thu 07-May-15 16:58:06

34 - is there a prize for the closest guess? wink

I'm in ED, and I think SNP will do it. Not a lot of love for the incumbent any more.

chocoluvva Thu 07-May-15 17:01:42

Lots of saltires flying from cars in Glasgow today. Another driver and I laughed as we opened our windows at exactly the same time, waiting at lights so we could listen to the snp 'broadcast'.

DS' friends (teenagers but not old enough to vote) were discussing politics yesterday and one friend seemed to think another conservative government would be best for the economy and that the labour party was the reason for the recession. It was very interesting listening to them and chipping in

roughtyping Thu 07-May-15 17:02:04

Also in ED (hello AgentP!) and would be happy to see JS go. Usually all you see are her posters in people's windows, I've seen far more SNP this time around. I think it will be very, very close and I'm not sure she'll be gone.

chocoluvva Thu 07-May-15 17:03:04

Oooh! AgentProvocateur - you're not the first person I've heard say that about Jo Swinson.

ItsAllGoingToBeFine Thu 07-May-15 17:03:12

Its great isn't it hearing teenagers sitting at the back of the bus discussing politics grin. One really good thing to come out of the referendum IMO...

OneMagnumisneverenough Thu 07-May-15 17:04:06

Lots of saltires flying from cars in Glasgow today

See, that's what I fucking hate! I'm Scottish, the Saltire is as much my flag as anyone elses, since when did it become the SNPs property? - they can fuck off with stealing it for their own ends.

ItsAllGoingToBeFine Thu 07-May-15 17:05:15

I feel a bit sorry for Swinson - isn't being an MP pretty much the only thing she has ever done? I'm fact, I know its daft but I do feel sorry for the MPs and their families who are going to lose their jobs tonight - I'm sure some of them pretty much saw it is a job for life in a safe seat, what will they do with themselves?

ItsAllGoingToBeFine Thu 07-May-15 17:06:00

See, that's what I fucking hate! I'm Scottish, the Saltire is as much my flag as anyone elses, since when did it become the SNPs property? - they can fuck off with stealing it for their own ends.

Nothing to stop any party using it surely?

HelenF350 Thu 07-May-15 17:07:23

I think 45-50. I haven't voted for the though and never would.

Cloudhowe63 Thu 07-May-15 17:09:13

Crossing my fingers for 50+! grin Oh, look! Even the grin is yellow!grin

MollyAir Thu 07-May-15 17:10:21

I think 50.

MollyAir Thu 07-May-15 17:11:22

Is there a prize? grin

FoxyJane Thu 07-May-15 17:13:52

My family and I were discussing this last night. My sisters thinks 38 my brothers think 36. We grew up with our cousins and they think it will be high 40s.

We cover Scotland quite nicely. From the Borders to the Highlands and Islands.

It will be an interesting election whatever the final outcome. We are alltogether as of Saturday for a big family birthday so are slowing catching up with each other and politics has been a big topic.

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