Property pundits - where do you think the market is going next?

[slackrunner]

Our house has just gone under offer (hurrah) - I was having a quick peek on Rightmove today and have noticed that others locally have also sold in the past couple of weeks.

Have we reached the bottom of the market, or is this just a spring blip and it has further to fall?

[expatinscotland]

Swine flu is going to come through in winter and people will be more worried about their neighbour killing them than house prices .

Best get your zombie plan together.

[slackrunner]

LOL of course that's if global warming, food shortages and a severe lack of dough don't finish us of first.

[noddyholder]

I think much further down actually.This is just a spring bounce bouyed along by the quantative easing and low rates atm.This country is in such a mess that I think something has to give.Interest rates will have to rise and further tax hikes.I think prices will fall as people will soon be forced to sell as unemployment really takes hold.back to 2003 prices and strict lending criteria by 2011 imvho of course

[slackrunner]

Yep - that's my gut instinct too noddy.

[wombleprincess]

well, i think its all to do with... sorry location location location ... premium houses in premium areas. prices have corrected, probably a bit more stable now, but in other areas of the country where housing stock is similar (new build estates, terraces etc), areas which are not "special" ie where 95% of us live, i reckon there is still a way down.for reasons much better listed by NH.

[lalalonglegs]

I received a press release from a property market analysis outfit on Friday with their latest figures: despite showing that there was an increase in activity, they felt there could be no recovery for the forseeable future because there is an absence of first-time buyers. And they tend to be extremely optimistic generally...

And I don't know about that womble - around us, a house on arguably the best street in the area has just sold at almost 30% below peak. Asking prices might still be stupid but they aren't being achieved.

[slackrunner]

Agreed lala - our accepted offer is massively under its peak value. We need to move, so priced accordingly. Lots of delusional vendors still out there IMO - they won't sell.

[noddyholder]

We are in the catchment of arguably the best primary and secondary with this house and we bought it for 33% off peak.Last one in street before this sold in May 08 and we bought in October.V popular area lovely houses etc so I think everywhere is falling perhaps at different rates but eventually it will even out.Who will buy these more 'desirable' houses when the next step down have had a large percentage fall?

[brettgirl2]

I can't see any justification for the assertion of interest rates going up.

My feeling is that the prices will gradually start to level out and will probably hit stability sometime next year. On many properties the % rental yield is hitting 10%. With zero returns on savings that will start to attract investors in.

But as someone else said, no-one really knows!

[jeanjeannie]

I'm with noddy - realistically interest rates are going to have to rise. Personally I think it's a spring bounce and I know many people buying 30-40% under the asking price. They're the people with plenty of equity in their house, want to get into a good catchment and are making the most of the low rates, rather than wait.

Can't see interest rates dramatically rising before the Olympics though - need to keep hold of that feel-good factor. and all that After then though...woah...it's all got to be paid back!!

Plus, if there is going to be no more 'adventurous' lending then the prices will have to reflect wages more accurately, or else there'll still be no movement, as not enough people (first time buyers especially) will have any savings for the hefty deposits.

[brettgirl2]

Why do you think they are going to have to rise? The RPI is currently negative, therefore the government will use this as an excuse to ignore the preferred CPI measure. It is true that they can't go down but they could stay the same for a while.

As far ahead as three years it is impossible to predict what will happen. However, currently the mortgage deals are spectacularly bad anyway in comparison to the Base rate and SVR.

If first time buyers have no deposits, and older people can get 10% yield on their capital the buy to let market will start to recover.

[jeanjeannie]

Oh I think they will stay the same for a while - hence why the market is moving to a certain degree. However, interest rates this low won't do anything for savers....and if we are going to get people spending money again (real money, not plastic) then they are going to have to be persuaded to do so. We have to reverse the debt situation of individuals and make saving equally as attractive as spending.

Not sure what you mean by the market 'recovering' I'm not convinced the stupendous rise in property value was sustainable anyway...it's not the future for housing I want to see for my kids. Unless wages dramatically rise then I can foresee only the uber rich taking on a mortgage if the house prices were to rise in the monumental way they have over the last decade. I just cannot see how we can all expect year-on-year growth in the housing market (as though they were shares) when all around us is so unstable - it seems madness.

[wombleprincess]

i dont think we will see growth for some time round but i sense there is stability in some small niche areas where prices have already fallen.

[Sorrento]

Everyone thinks they live in the niche area though, it won't affect them.
I hope houses will become somewhere to live and raise a family again, so 40% off 2007 prices.

[deste]

Three houses near me have all gone under offer in the last week. They had been up for sale for about 9 months. NE Scotland.

[wombleprincess]

what, even people in stoke on trent?

[nkf]

I'd say prices will go down. And interest rates will go up. Ms Doom here.

[daftpunk]

i don't think prices will drop much more tbh, houses are selling again in my area, (and quickly)..

[JimmyMcNulty]

Down.

Way down.

And then a bit further.

No house price crash has ever been over this quickly, and certainly not one at the start of such a bad recession with no end in sight.

[MelonCauli]

Houses are starting to sell around here, too. People are also getting closer to their asking price.

[lljkk]

I honestly don't know, my crystal ball is on the blink.
But, we are thinking about buying to let.
So I looked up what the house we wanted to buy (as btl) sold for last, #42k in 2001. Then I asked the Nationwide calculator what it should be worth now (roughly): #62k.

It's on the market for 97k!! .
And I don't think it's been improved that much since 2001.
Anyway, I think we probably won't go for it.

[Sorrento]

See house prices are down nationally but not in anyone's backyard.

The houses are not sold they are sold subject to contract, when they have actually gone through and you can confirm the actual sold price via the land registry come back and tell us they SOLD for near the asking price until then it's all hot air.

[MelonCauli]

Yes, Sorrento, houses have SOLD i.e. completed here at prices near the asing price. I was wondering how long it would take for you to turn up and be unpleasant, changing an interesting discussion into an argument, so I'm off this thread

[Elibean]

ditto noddy. Spring blip.

[Elibean]

And we just agreed on an offer that was 10& less than we accepted last November (chain broke down, we took it off the market for a few months). Lots on at silly prices still, but none of them have shifted at all: this in a v 'desirable' area, and a year ago we were still getting weekly letters through the door from desperate-to-buy people.