If schools don't predict a level 3 at KS1 do they think a level 5 unlikely at KS2?

(74 Posts)
NorhamGardens Wed 09-Feb-11 13:46:52

I've heard from friends that sometimes if a child doesn't get a level 3 at KS1 targets can be set inflexibly going forward?

In other words less than a level 3 at KS1 may translate to a level 4 at KS2? The middle group being taught to lower NC targets than the higher group. Therefore unless you're plugging the gaps at home a level 5 at KS2 will be nigh on impossible to achieve?

I've seen how some lessons are differentiated and there is plenty of scope for the top group to pull further and further away from the others in terms of ground covered. It may be that some in the middle don't have a chance to prove their potential?

pinkhebe Wed 09-Feb-11 14:23:15

no, my son is in yr 3, he got 2a for reading, and 2b for writing at the end of ks1. He and several others are having extra help in literacy to boost his performance.

So he is in the middle group and getting extra help

NorhamGardens Wed 09-Feb-11 14:27:49

Guess schools differ, that sounds very good.

Why are they boosting him? He was average for writing and above average for reading at the end of Y2. Is it that they have spotted the potential for him and a few others to achieve more but not the rest of the middle group?

crazygracieuk Wed 09-Feb-11 14:44:33

No. Some children are simply late bloomers. Ds1 had level 2 in most ks1 sats but is in year 5 and a high level 5. He is unusual that he's gone through all the ability tables in his class and I have only done thongs like his homework and listening to him read daily. When he has gone up groups, teachers have supported gaps in his knowledge.

Elsjas Wed 09-Feb-11 14:48:56

No. In my dc school there is great flexibility to move between groups as children progress up the school. Many children (esp boys) are late bloomers - school should have the flexibility to cope with this.

pinkhebe Wed 09-Feb-11 14:51:39

I don't know! He was level 3 in maths and science (like a lot of boys!) but he didn't progress very well in yr2 despite a very good teacher, maybe the other groups will have extra help later in the year.

Schools have an interest in getting as many children as possible to level 5 by the end of primary remember grin

DD1 got level 2a in her Yr2 SATS. She got Level 5 in Yr6 and now in year 9 is Level 7 and in the top set of 10 at her secondary school. Some children just catch on to maths later, and all good schools realise that potential isn't best measured once and for all at age 7.

Fennel Wed 09-Feb-11 15:07:11

Not true at our primary, they track and revise the targets every year. It's all mapped out on a computer chart.

I have one who goes up and down the charts by 3-4 years worth at a time, highly erratic test performance, that's how I know about the charts, she's combusting the system.

NorhamGardens Wed 09-Feb-11 15:25:04

Fennel, tell me more. How does this work?

RatherBeOnThePiste Wed 09-Feb-11 15:28:24

DS - classic summer baby got level 1 for the writing, but last year was all level 5s.

RatherBeOnThePiste Wed 09-Feb-11 15:28:51

sorry level 1 at KS1 and 5s at KS2

manicbmc Wed 09-Feb-11 15:32:06

I taught a child a few years ago who scraped a 1a in reading in yr 2. She got a level 5 in yr 6.

NorhamGardens Wed 09-Feb-11 15:53:16

I would think that the children that scraped 1as at KS1 that went on to get a level 5 in KS2 were in the minority?
Or is this not the case?

Fennel Wed 09-Feb-11 15:55:33

On the monitoring, I assume it's not just our school. Each child has their actual scores and predicted targets plotted in, so you can see for each child where they have last been assessed (end of each year), and where this puts them for each end of year and KS2 (assuming they go up 2 sub levels a year, that's the average). If the child jumps or flounders, this is obvious on the chart. and in yrs 5-6 there is attention to the ones who are borderline 4/5 say and do some sort of "booster" system with them. as well as extra with the top and bottom end, there is attention to the middle ones who might be improving fast.

Fennel Wed 09-Feb-11 15:57:41

I know rather a lot of people who were last in class to read, ending up with multiple degrees in several languages, or bottom of class in maths, only to go on to get firsts in maths and physics. so I'd imagine it's not that unusual to improve massively between those years.

RatherBeOnThePiste Wed 09-Feb-11 16:06:12

Well probably yes the minority - but IMHO it was crap Infants teaching followed by amazing junior level.

In the infants he had an attitude that it really did not matter and that he could get away with often genuinely doing nothing apart from maybe write half a title.

The Junior teachers left no stone unturned!

He was also a classic late bloomer and passed a competitive entrance exam for senior school at 11

He spent much of Year 2 in the loo avoiding work!

cory Wed 09-Feb-11 16:19:05

ime sets are fluid and it is quite possible to work your way up, targets aren't set in stone

even at secondary level there is still room for surprises

NorhamGardens Wed 09-Feb-11 16:21:31

Glad it all turned out well RatherBeOnThePiste.

In our Y2 quite a large number started the year at a level 3a in some areas. It will be hard for others to catch them given the 1.5 level average rise. I guess you have to trust in the system and hope that all will reach their potential.

NorhamGardens Wed 09-Feb-11 16:21:44

Glad it all turned out well RatherBeOnThePiste.

In our Y2 quite a large number started the year at a level 3a in some areas. It will be hard for others to catch them given the 1.5 level average rise. I guess you have to trust in the system and hope that all will reach their potential.

RatherBeOnThePiste Wed 09-Feb-11 16:30:01

We had one NQT struggling to find her feet in Reception, but she was kind and nice, followed by a good teacher who unfortunately was away a lot for health reasons in Year 1 followed by an exceptionally poor NQT in Year 2 who gave up teaching after this first year.

We were given the teacher with the strongest reputation on entry to Year 3. The children caught up from there.

The overall results for DS's class were dire and he was not alone in his level 1. We were a bit at a loss.

Funnily enough his older sister by two years had a succession of amazing teachers from Reception to Year 6. It does show how much influence a teacher can have.

stoatsrevenge Wed 09-Feb-11 20:24:03

'In other words less than a level 3 at KS1 may translate to a level 4 at KS2? The middle group being taught to lower NC targets than the higher group. Therefore unless you're plugging the gaps at home a level 5 at KS2 will be nigh on impossible to achieve?'

Not true at all. The school will teach to the child's ability and will not set from this early age.

In fact, the school will be showing 'good'/'outstanding' progress if children who were 2B/A at KS1 achieve a level 5 in Y6. This will get lots of brownie points from Ofsted.

Schools CERTAINLY won't be keeping the <L3s in a different, and higher group in order to get L5s. These children are EXPECTED to get L5 in Y6, and, in so doing, only show satisfactory progress.

stoatsrevenge Wed 09-Feb-11 20:24:43

Sorry didn't mean the < in the last paragraph!

PoppetUK Wed 09-Feb-11 22:01:42

This is a question that I should have asked so thank you OP.

Does a level 5 mean they are likely to do well at secondary. How does Primary School success relate to Secondary School success? What long term things do us parents need to be thinking about?

IloveJudgeJudy Thu 10-Feb-11 10:04:59

To give the answer ime to you, Poppet, the results a child gets at KS1, I believe, then KS2, gives the results that the schools expect the child to achieve at GCSE. This is called Fisher Family Trust results.

My DS is just taking GCSEs. His predicted results, which are written down and produced every time anyone wants to know them, are quite low, all Cs, but actually he is on target for a few As in GCSE, so it is all b******s so far as I am concerned.

It has taken my DS quite a long time to reach the maturity to realise that he does actually need to work at school and as soon as he did this, the good results have followed.

I wouldn't worry about the SATs at all. They are to judge the school, not the children. The children will be setted at secondary school, most probably, and that will be done by taking other factors than just the SATs into account.

Pterosaur Thu 10-Feb-11 10:18:43

My DD2 was 2A for maths in year 2, and is just about hitting level 5 now in year 6. I have a feeling the school will want her to nail that 5. I'd like her to get it for the sake of her self-confidence, but was pleased when she said that she would do her best in the SATs but had no intention of worrying about them beforehand.

I don't think SATs take age into account (do they?) - DD2's attainment at the end of year 6 is likely to be similar to DD1's, but DD1 was level 3 all the way in year 2 (September birthday), while DD2 (May birthday) had more of a mixed bag of KS1 results.

NorhamGardens Thu 10-Feb-11 12:35:58

Elbowfan said:If he scored 2a/b/c at the end of KS1 he will be expected to get to level 4 at the end of KS2

It's this sort of thinking that I worry could be potentially limiting. Don't mean to single you out Elbowfan. But it's this that made me start the thread and I hear it all the time...

NorhamGardens Thu 10-Feb-11 12:38:59

I know that it's in the school and teachers interest to push etc, which is good, it's just that the expectations & exposure to more challenging work might not be the same in one group compared to another.

I am sure in most schools this won't be a problem, but perhaps in some?

IndigoBell Thu 10-Feb-11 13:03:52

Norham - look up your school's CVA scores.

If their CVA is over 100 that means that quite a few kids make more than 2 levels of progress between KS1 and KS2.

If their CVA is under 100 it means it's a rubbish school

But regardless of the CVA school, or their league tables or anything else. No one can predict exactly what your DC will get in KS2 - nor whether or not they will get into the grammar school you have set your heart on.

lovecheese Tue 22-Feb-11 09:55:11

NG - thinking about this thread and wondering if you have an update re: your DS?

ThePosieParker Tue 22-Feb-11 09:57:55

One of my dss would have definitely got 2s in KS1, but had a developmental spurt in KS2. The other got all threes, as he's 12% of the whole country I can't see that only 12% will get all 5s at KS2.

got2bequackers Tue 22-Feb-11 10:03:52

Ks3 english I got a level 5. GCSE english language ~ b english lit~ b english vocab and communications ~ a. This was before a* came in.
My teacher begged me to do english at a'level due to the progress i had made in her class.

My point being that you can never guess what rate a child will improve at given the right teacher and the right circumstances.

cokezone1 Tue 22-Feb-11 10:04:02

I have just been told dd is likely to come out at 2b/2a at end of year 2. I thought that was fairly good. Am I wrong?

lovecheese Tue 22-Feb-11 10:08:28

Thats good, cokezone1; the expected is 2b, so 2a would be very good.

cokezone1 Tue 22-Feb-11 10:15:29

Think its probably 2a for maths. 2b for others. Thank you Lovecheese.

mrz Tue 22-Feb-11 11:10:59

I can't imagine any school limiting the potential for more children to gain a level 5 in Y6 regardless of levels in Y2 it would be foolish as a predicted level 3 doesn't guarantee a level 5

LoisSanger Tue 22-Feb-11 11:17:15

My sister would have been level 2 at ks1 and definitejt level 5 for KS2. She blossomed in year 5 with an amazing teacher.

Madsometimes Tue 22-Feb-11 12:09:40

Dd1 was 2a for reading and 2b for writing and maths. Her Y6 teacher is expecting her to get L5 for reading and maths and 4a for writing.

Whether she does get her 5's depends on how she does on the day, but the expectation is there. She is not in the top set btw, but normally gets the same work as them. Y6 teachers love seeing children exceed their predictions.

builder Tue 22-Feb-11 16:01:16

All children are monitored. If the school is not doing it properly, Ofsted will get very cross! (unless overall average results because of talented children hide poor teaching).

Level 2s are good at the end of KS1. A level 3 for writing is quite hard to get at that age (lots of punctuation required.

BettyDouglas Tue 22-Feb-11 16:14:17

There is lots of fluidity at primary level and good schools do review the targets every year. For admin purposes, a child getting a level 3 at KS1 will always be predicted a level 5 at KS2. Anything less and ofsted would question what the school was up to. However, that is not to say that children getting 2As are expected only to get L4s. Lots of these children will also get L5s.

So a child getting 2Bs or 2As may well, initially get a prediction of L4 at Y6. However, as that child matures and moves through Y3 and Y4, that prediction is often changed to a L5.

School can be a little cautious with regards target setting for obvious reasons but that doesn't mean they are under-ambitious for the child.

BettyDouglas Tue 22-Feb-11 16:19:23

Madsometimes, The satisfaction of seeing any child reach their potential in the tests was always an amazing feeling. It made the whole job worthwhile.

For some that was straight L5s. But for others, it was a L3 and leaving us with a basic functioning level of literacy and maths. Many of these kids had entered the juniors on the old 'W' score or 1C and were still struggling with basic number and letter recognision at 7yrs.

BettyDouglas Tue 22-Feb-11 16:29:54

Lots of very high performing 'outstanding' graded schools have very poor CVA scores. I wish prospective parents would look at these alongside the levels.

Also, some schools will be top of the primary league tables because they have the highest number of L4s. In fact, a closer look might show they produce little else but almost 30, level 4s. Another school may be behind them in the table due to lower L4 scores but of those L4 and above, a high percentage attained L5. They also have a good mix of L3s in there.

A broad catchment where they support the less able and stretch the more able has got to be a more vibrant learning environment than one who just makes sure all the children reach the required L4 through intensive boosting. This usually happens in schools where 90+% of the children could read and count to 50+ on entry to Reception.

Give me an improving school or one with a very mixed intake any day over a complacent outstanding rated primary any day!

propatria Tue 22-Feb-11 16:39:22

Dont get carried away by cva scores,its not unknown for schools to keep ks1 down so ks2 looks great with lots of cva,treat with caution.

RoadArt Tue 22-Feb-11 20:35:04

I have asked similar questions about this in the past, and my understanding is when a child is given a Level 5, the schools dont say whether its just a scrape through, confident or almost a 6.

There have also been many posts on here from teachers who say children have gone to high school with a Level 5 score, but in reality do not know enough to be accurately assessed as a Level 5 and should have been recorded as a Level 4.

I would prefer children were given accurate grades to assess where they really are rather than a higher grade that they have just about scraped through to.

BettyDouglas Tue 22-Feb-11 20:44:31

RoadArt, that is a problem as they cross a key stage. A L5 at Y6 is only ever just reaching the standard so can accurately be called a 5C. Therefore, when the enter Y7, they need to spend quite a while consolidating that level which is actually quite vast.

It's the same when they come into Y3 with L3s. They are certainly not secure L3s and if they were immediately tested on a Y3 paper, they wouldn't actually reach a L3 at all. All it really means is that they are above L2 and starting to touch on what is required for L3.

mrz Tue 22-Feb-11 20:49:04

So the child in my Y2 class currently at 3a in maths won't be a level 4 by Y3?

BettyDouglas Tue 22-Feb-11 20:52:43

Well that child may well be. Just as a child can be in Y5 and already achieving a solid L5.

I'm talking about a L3 on the test paper. They can get a L3 on the test paper and more often than not it just means they are above L2 and touching on L3. It certainly does not mean they are a solid L3. Although, of course, an individual child may well be.

BettyDouglas Tue 22-Feb-11 20:54:14

Just to clarify, I am talking about the test papers which often belie a child's actual ability.

mrz Tue 22-Feb-11 20:56:37

No it doesn't but depending on the score it's possible to work out whether they are low, secure or high on the test (obviously a maximum score is high). But Y2 levels are based on the work over the year so quite easy to see if a child is secure. It is also possible to award a level 6 in Y6 if a child is working at that level even though the test is level 3-5.

BettyDouglas Tue 22-Feb-11 21:08:15

Oh but in the good old days we had a L6 paper. We rarely needed to order them and it was exciting when we did.

The problem arises when Y2 parents are told their child is a L3 at the end of the year then they complain when their child 'only' gets a 3A at the end of Y3. Now both levels are correct but many parents then assume that their child hasn't moved on at all in Y3. I remember that being very frustrating.

Of course, a few children who came up on L3 would get a L4 at the end of the year too. But those children have probably made the same progree with the only difference being that they were a more secure L3 in the first place.

RoadArt Tue 22-Feb-11 21:19:37

If a child was a Level 3 at end of year 2, would would the forecast be at end of Year 8?

I presume these forecasts are the same for both maths and literacy?

BettyDouglas Tue 22-Feb-11 21:24:33

Oh I can't remember-probably about a 6B?
two thirds of a level a year and a likely projection of L5 in Y6 so 5A in Y7 and 6B at the end of Y8.

But as we were just discussing, it could well be that an individual child is quite far into L3 at the end of KS1 and quite far into L5 at Y6, so perhaps a 6A? Though I'm not 100% sure as it's a long time since I taught KS3.

Ponders Tue 22-Feb-11 21:26:33

OP, I don't know if anyone else has said this (haven't read every post, sorry) but the point of SATs isn't supposed to show how clever or otherwise a child is - it's to show how well the school has taught a child & brought them on.

If a child gets a low result in Y2 (& in any case Y2 results aren't published any more??? so this is only for internal/parents' use) all it signifies is that if they get an equivalent result in Y6 the school has just kept them going along the same average line - but if they go on to get a better result than average in Y6, then the school has done a brilliant job (bells & whistles all round grin)

BettyDouglas Tue 22-Feb-11 21:26:39

The average child is expected to move up 2/3 of a level each year. So if a child is 4C at the beginning of Y6, they would be expected to reach a 4A by the end.

Same for both maths and literacy.

cece Tue 22-Feb-11 21:29:10

A 2A or 3 at KS1 would result in a target of level 5 for KS2 SATs. These are felxible though, as in a child who gets lower than an 2a could be brought on to get a level 5. However, this is the standard target for children who do well in their KS1 SATs.

spanieleyes Thu 24-Feb-11 16:21:21

In 2009 4% of children acheiving a 2c in maths at KS1 went on to get a level 5 at KS2, for those obtaining a 2b and 2a the figures are 15% and 43% respectivly. The figures for English ( reading and writing combined) are 2c>5= 4%, 2b>5=12% and 2a>5=33%

Feenie Thu 24-Feb-11 16:31:54

"The average child is expected to move up 2/3 of a level each year. So if a child is 4C at the beginning of Y6, they would be expected to reach a 4A by the end."

Two sublevels isn't expected progress, it's good progress. Most schools, however, aim for good progress.

Expected progress is one and a half sublevels a year. E.g.

Y2 - 2b
Y3 - Halfway between a 2a and a 3c
Y4 - 3b
Y5 - Halfway between 3a and 4c
Y6 - 4b

It's easier to see when using APS points instead of sublevels - it's 3 points for expected progress and 4 for good progress.

Apologies - I have even bored myself now. blush

What's your source on that, spanieleyes - I was trying to find a link for it a while ago, and couldn't.

Feenie Thu 24-Feb-11 16:38:41

"It's the same when they come into Y3 with L3s. They are certainly not secure L3s and if they were immediately tested on a Y3 paper, they wouldn't actually reach a L3 at all. All it really means is that they are above L2 and starting to touch on what is required for L3."

I take issue with this particular piece of misinformation - Y2 assessment is based on many, many sources of sound information, not just the test.

Also, in our LEA we aren't allowed to enter children as a level 3 unless they are a solid level 3 - a 3c does not exist ofr us. hmm

Your comments on level 5/level 6 are also similarly outdated - much more evidence is requires to award a level 5/6 than simply scraping a level in the test. We frequently have children who don't get any questions wrong at all in the tests, but a 5B/5A/6C requires much more evidence than this.

spanieleyes Thu 24-Feb-11 16:40:29

It's on the National Strategies site but, as usual, is almost impossible to find!
http://nationalstrategies.standards.dcsf.gov.uk/node/439223 should do it!

Feenie Thu 24-Feb-11 16:45:40

Thanks, spanieleyes smile

pointythings Thu 24-Feb-11 22:10:30

I agree with you, Feenie. Both my DDs did level 3 papers in Yr 2 and flew through them. DD1 is now in Yr 5 and expected to hit 5b in reading and writing and 5a in maths by the end of the year. She is no Einstein, but she has had some very good teachers who have brought out both enjoyment and achievement in the groups they are working with. DD2 is in Yr3, and is predicted a 4c in Maths and reading and a 4c in writing.

I'm also glad to hear that the KS2 SATs require more than perfect scores for the higher levels as I trust my DCs' teachers to get this right. <apple box of chocolates for the teacher icon>

Cortina Fri 25-Feb-11 14:25:22

In 2009 4% of children acheiving a 2c in maths at KS1 went on to get a level 5 at KS2, for those obtaining a 2b and 2a the figures are 15% and 43% respectivly. The figures for English ( reading and writing combined) are 2c>5= 4%, 2b>5=12% and 2a>5=33%

So statistically a child that starts ahead stays ahead.

mrz Fri 25-Feb-11 14:31:13

Level 2 English is huge (each sub level has the content of some full levels) so it is a bigger leap for a child on 2C compared to a child on 2B or 2A but far from impossible.

IndigoBell Fri 25-Feb-11 14:42:18

Cortina - So statistically a child that starts ahead stays ahead. confused

No - Only 68.8% of level 3 kids made a level 5. The other 30.9% only achieved a level 2. ( and 0.3% stayed a level 2!)

In fact you were most likely to make poor progress (1 sublevel instead of 2 ) if you achieved a level 3 at KS1

IndigoBell Fri 25-Feb-11 14:45:02

And most likely to make good progress (97.5% chance) if you achieved a level 2a in KS1

IndigoBell Fri 25-Feb-11 14:46:31

Sorry blush

The other 30.9% only achieved a level 2 4

( and 0.3% stayed a level 2! 3 )

bitsyandbetty Fri 25-Feb-11 15:12:09

Again I would point to the Added Value aspect of Ofsted and have known of a teacher being persuaded to downgrade kids to 2 a the end of KS1 to get 5s in KS2 and this increases the added value for the school. My DS1 was 2c in writing and is now top set in Year 6 and currently a good 4a with the possibility of a 5. His maths is the same although he was a 2a a the end of KS1 so his English has improved more than his Maths during this period. He is also a summer baby.

Cortina Fri 25-Feb-11 15:17:47

Thanks for pointing that out, stats not a strength I thought that it was rather disappointing that only 4% of those with a 2C in maths went on to get a level 5 in KS2 (although appreciate these are only the stats for one year).

IndigoBell Fri 25-Feb-11 15:59:48

The kids who achieved a level 1 at KS1 are the group most likely to make 3 or more levels of progress. (38.7% of them)

And the kids who achieved a level 3 at KS1 are the group most likely to make only 1 level of progress (30.9%)

lovecheese Sun 27-Feb-11 22:34:08

Indigobell - have to go to bed now, but can I ask why? regarding the stats that you posted on Friday at 15:59? thanks

Catnao Mon 28-Feb-11 00:37:07

Secondary schools round our way ignore our SATS (inaccurate term by the way) and use their own CATS scores to set. We all know who is "good" at what if we are good at our jobs. And it changes, somewhat over the years, owing to late development/early pushing/ whatever. But I think teachers do know, if they are any good, what individual kids can do at individual stages.

IndigoBell Mon 28-Feb-11 07:04:26

loveCheese - I can't tell you why. I can only tell you what the results were.....

lovecheese Mon 14-Mar-11 12:00:42

Are you still around, OP?

PoppetUK Mon 14-Mar-11 12:23:22

Very interesting reading all the stats. thanks.

Does anyone know how all these KS1 and KS2 results reflect in GCSE's?

I'm hoping to get some info on my daughters levels at parents evening. She has some gaps due to missing school over here and I would be happy with 2b or 2a for her so hopefully she can do well over the coming years in the UK system. The improvements so far have been wonderful. She seems to be switched on to learning now and has a wonderful teacher. I'm hoping that because she won't get levels 3's it won't hold her back.

Thanks again to all the experienced posters.

PoppetUK Tue 15-Mar-11 20:50:38

I've been thrilled with parent's evening tonight. Her teacher was really happy with her progress and the best news for me was that she is working in a way that has helped her gain a huge improvement in her work and heading in the right direction. Her work books look absolutely nothing like the scribble writing she does at home and like she did when she became disheartened in her year 1 class abroad. It also made me think less about the levels because I could see how quickly things could change.

Her teacher had a lovely way of explaining things. I have total faith that she is giving my DD the best chance she can to develop and do well. Hope for a good teacher next year

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