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9 replies

mateykatie · 16/01/2010 19:36

A thread which does what it says on the tin.

The best all round reference site I can find is UK Polling Report link.

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mateykatie · 16/01/2010 19:39

Will start things off with the ComRes poll for the Independent on Sunday

Con 42 (+4) Lab 29 (no change) LibDem 19 (no change)

ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2418

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policygarry · 16/01/2010 19:50

Mmm yes, gap widening. Reckon it's the knock-on effect of the Hoon/Hewitt nonsense.

To add an entirely unoriginal point: it's a bit surprising that the Tories aren't further ahead, given how unpopular Brown is. Blair at the equivalent point in 1997 was about 20 points ahead of Major. (I'm pulling that figure out of the air but it was a much bigger gap.)

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mateykatie · 16/01/2010 19:53

The comparisons with Blair do not hold, except in the case of ICM.

See here www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/pb-guide-to-polling-methodologies/.

Basically, all the pollsters except ICM got it badly wrong and have adjusted their methodology since.

Still useful when the media keep repeating the myth though, because it keeps Tory complacency in check!

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policygarry · 16/01/2010 19:55

Ah right, OK.

I'm all for Tory complacency, personally

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mateykatie · 16/01/2010 19:57

policygarry, I don't think the Hoon/Hewitt thing had any effect. Labour are not changed.

The difference is due to the "Others" (UKIP, BNP, Green, SNP, Plaid Cymru) going down.

Basically I think it is expenses fading away a bit, and UKIP leaners deciding Cameron is the lesser of two evils.

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policygarry · 16/01/2010 20:00

Yes, that seems plausible.

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mateykatie · 16/01/2010 20:15

Bit of a different message from YouGov for the Sunday Times though

Con 40 (-2) Lab 31 (+1) LD 18 (+2)

Comparisons are to last YouGov survey, not to the last YouGov/Sunday Times.

Changes within the margin of error but Labour can be happy with this one!

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mateykatie · 23/01/2010 19:37

A new poll (ComRes/Daily Mirror) of just marginal constituencies just popped up on Sky News.

Con 38
Lab 29
LD 19

Can't really compare it to full national polls, as it is only selected constituencies, but it does seem that the Tory lead is shrinking.

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mateykatie · 25/01/2010 23:01

It seems like I'm talking to myself on this thread, but anyway.

A bad Guardian/ICM for Labour, good for the Tories, and very very good for the Lib Dems

ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2430

Con 40 (-)
Lab 29 (-1)
LD 21 (+3)