US Election - last couple of days.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

A parallel thread to the other one that is running.

So far early voting is running at a record high. Looks like they are favouring Clinton at present. High Latino turnout. Overall the polls have tightened though and I think that many are in their margin of error.

[lljkk]

Don't some states only count the absentee ballots AFTER the election date? I thought it was a right mixed bag of timetables.

What are the polls saying in Florida the swing states?
What is latest forecast for Senate numbers?

Much as I genuinely like HRC, I dread what will happen if she wins but has a hostile congress. At least Obama had public opinion & personal charm on his side.

[DoYouRememberJustinBobby]

I've taken Wednesday off work to see if there is a final result. I'm feeling very uneasy about this outcome. Forgetting Trump himself, will his supporters accept Clinton. I saw some people interviewed on Sky News yesterday saying they won't take the result as true if she wins.

[PacificDogwod]

Thanks for this thread, OYBBK - the Other One is a bit monopolised by one bot particular individual.

I too am uneasy about the outcome - whoever wins is going to cry 'fix' and whoever wins a large proportion of the people will not feel represented.

I do understand the US electoral system, but I struggle to find it particularly democratic tbh.
And polls? I dunno - so much depends on who asked the question, and how it is asked and who is being asked. I don't trust them one bit.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

:) you are welcome Pacific.

I do find the whole early voter poll data release quite confusing. I keep trying to compute as to how it influences Tuesdays vote. I also can't get my head around how different parts of the states are allowed to release their results as soon as the voting closes. Surely that must change the play through the day?

I didn't know that about absentee votes lljk. Are you saying that the results are declared before they are counted? If so, some must wonder why they bother at all!

[flowersandsunshine]

Pacific - who's the bot?

claig - whatever else s/he may be - is certainly not a bot, and nor am I (been posting since 2005!).

[PacificDogwod]

Oh, I was being cheeky - claig jolly well sounds like one and I don't like how the thread became all about claig; what/whoever they are.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I think as Claig has agreed not to join this thread it's fairest if we don't talk about them as they have no opportunity to defend themselves.

So, we get the first official result at about 5am here on election day. That's a bit weird! I'm going to have to plan to keep really busy that day. I can't bear to wake up on wednesday the same way I did the day after the brexit vote with the feeling of total catastrophe.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

SNL
I'll miss this.

[Breadandwine]

I'm in too, Kitten. A touch of sanity wouldn't come amiss in these troubled times!

I'm another concerned that it might all go wrong. [gloom]

I'll be staying up for the verdict - I thought we're getting the first results round about 2am?

Did you guys see [[http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37877607
this sketch]] about our UK TV license. Trump and Clinton were flown over to do an interview which was cancelled because...well, I won't spoil it for you - it's hilarious!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

welcome bread :)

The very first results are from about a dozen people living in a tiny place in new hampshire. Apparently they vote as soon as it turns midnight. Then declare.

My plan is to snuggle up in bed with my ipad and try and snooze in between checking results. I'm working on wednesday. I'll stay away from booze so I don't accidentally get drunk either in sorrow or relief.

I'll check out sketch now :)

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

404 page not found. :(

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It's good news about the FBI dropping their investigation, but flipping heck I'd like to know what went on behind closed doors there this week.

[RufusTheSpartacusReindeer]

Great news

But i think its too late kitten

I think its disgusting what the FBI have done this close to the election

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I think it is too late as well and totally horrifying that the fbi could play games like this just before the election.

[Breadandwine]

This should work:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37877607

The consensus about the latest FBI news seems to be that, regardless of what they are now saying, 'FBI' and 'investigation into Clinton' is all the voters hear. They've not done Hillary any favours today.

[RufusTheSpartacusReindeer]

This election has been rigged as far as i am concerned

I really try and be polite on these threads, i dont judge, everyone is entitled to their opinion and people have all sorts of very valid reasons for the way they vote, people are not stupid for voting in a certain way

Until the last few days i absolutely believed the above

But i am a bit fed up of this whole thing

I have no problem with anyone who says they wouldnt vote for clinton due to her policies

But

Voting for Trump makes you a complete plonker in my book

In fact it makes me think that trump voters are all sorts of unmentionables...and i am desperately trying to cling on to my manners here

Which would make everyone who knows me laugh themselves silly as i am usually an opinionated, foul mouthed bitch

[lljkk]

Gosh, that SNL skit was great. Seeing Alec Baldwin break character was a shock.

lljk. Are you saying that the results are declared before they are counted?

This explains; basically the outcome can be declared in US elections if the validated counts are already definitive & the absentee votes aren't enough (in number) to change the outcome. The absentee ballots still get counted, for a final official result, but sometimes not finished for days after the election actually happened. To cut the workload, the absentee ballots may get counted early (but obviously only if they arrive in time) & those prelim results released. The minor elections & propositions get hurt a lot by the early release of results. Suppose you mostly care about mayor of your town & no other race. You hear from exit polls that your candidate is winning easily. So You don't go bother to vote at all... for your state representatives or city measures or whatever.

It's not like in Britain where the votes all have to be counted on the night not starting a second before 10pm when polls closed, & then during the (very public) count there is constant checksumming to make sure the totals are exactly same as what went into the boxes.

When I counted ballots this yr, btw, we had one group of ballots that my table couldn't make match. Sum of spoilt+Leave+Remain kept equalling 1 different from the number that went into the box. This was like 1601 vs. 1600. After at least 3 counts we were told the result was good enough. There must be some rule about what tiny error margin is permissible for the results on the night.

[Showmeagain]

Fear not my lovelis. Sanity can be kept if you read Princetons Sam Wang. No emotion just maths (that I don't understand) and reasoning that I do. Try him out. Will help you sleep


election.princeton.edu/

[Breadandwine]

Thanks, Showme.

Here's more comfort from 538.com.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

that is soothing showme :)

Understood lljkk.

Rufus, I think some are anarchists - they want dissolution of authority. Esp in those who believe in the power of the homestead and the gun above all else. Others have seen leader after leader promise all, but their position of poverty never changes. They think a clean sweep is what is needed.

The world has been here before. It didn't go well..

just because you hate the decor of your room, it's boring, hasn't worked for you, hasn't made your life better, doesn't mean that painting it orange is a good idea.

[Showmeagain]

Ah but 538 has some real issues this year. Very spiky model that is having a lot of vocals. Sam Wang doesn't play to the crowd too much as he has a day job and it's not a click bait sie (no adverts ). There are others referenced on his site too

I think she will win. I thought we would leave. But I unlike Sam wang I know no nowt re USA elections apart from degree level analysis.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I'm not going to guess, I'm crap at this. I thought we would remain. My faith in polls is shaken.

[RufusTheSpartacusReindeer]

Thanks kitten

I am clinging on to the hope that the pig race on the last leg was right and that Clinton will win

And i honestly do sympathise with those who feel they cannot vote for Clinton

[RufusTheSpartacusReindeer]

I thought it would be close in the referendum but that remain would just win

I am not putting a bet on the election

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

those pigs were terribly reluctant!

It is very comforting to know that we have the Last Leg to console ourselves with on wednesday - if we can stay awake!