Iowa, Clinton and Trump - can someone explain it to me please?

(12 Posts)
YoureGonnaHearMeRoar Fri 29-Jan-16 02:54:37

So, Americans are voting now for who they want to lead their chosen party, yes? With the actual election being held in November.

And there's a big worry that Trump will do a Corbyn and become leader of their party even though people never really thought it might happen.

But then if Trump DOES become leader of the Republicans, people are saying that Clinton will definitely be elected President as no one would actually vote for Trump?

So will Clinton definitely be chosen to lead the Democrats?

Am I right? Nearly right?!

barkingfly Fri 29-Jan-16 03:53:41

Well, there are no real party 'leaders'..right now we are starting with primaries and caucuses and such but the actual candidates will be chosen later. Basically, what happens now doesn't mean diddly squat.

we do not know who will be running on either ticket.

YoureGonnaHearMeRoar Fri 29-Jan-16 11:42:25

So what's all this about Iowa is going to affect things?!

aginghippy Fri 29-Jan-16 11:56:28

Voters who are registered with either of the parties get to vote in what they call primary elections. They are basically stating their preferences. The actual candidates will be selected at the parties respective national conventions, which will be held in July.

The state of Iowa has one of the earliest primaries. The commentators think that what happens in Iowa affects the outcomes of the primaries held later.

SenecaFalls Fri 29-Jan-16 11:58:22

Iowa is important because it is the first primary. It can also be important for other reasons. It was a turning point for Obama in 2008 because it is so heavily white, and it proved that he had broad appeal that crossed racial lines. But it basically means that the winner(s) will get Iowa's votes toward the nomination of the party. In our system, unlike the parliamentary system in the UK, party's don't have leaders (they have administrative leaders, but that's different). The candidate who wins enough votes in the state primaries wins the nomination. Candidates who don't get many votes in the early primaries often drop out of the race.

SenecaFalls Fri 29-Jan-16 12:03:29

Almost all primaries are binding now, rather than preferential.

claig Fri 29-Jan-16 21:22:19

"people are saying that Clinton will definitely be elected President as no one would actually vote for Trump?

So will Clinton definitely be chosen to lead the Democrats?

Am I right? Nearly right?!"

No I think you are wrong. There is a big questin mark about whether Hillary will still be the Democrat nominee. There is an email scandal going on where she had some classified emails on her own server which was not kept secure and there is some talk that she may be indicted over that. All sorts of talk about what would happen if that occurred. Some say that Biden would be brought back or they could let Sanders go for it. Also talk of Bloomberg possibly entering as an independent if Sanders in nominated.

But apart from all of that, I think that Trump (if he is the Republican nominee and that is not certain as the Republican Establishment would rather he wasn't) will destroy Hillary in a one-to-one because of what he is likely to say about Bill etc

So anything could happen, she might still make it, but I wouldn't put money on it.

Iowa is the first state to caucus or where votes are counted for both parties. Sanders may beat Clinton in Iowa and then probably will in New Hampshire, but down South, expectations are that he will not be so popular.

Trump was not expected to win Iowa because of a large evangelical vote, but it all depebds on turnout and if voters who have never caucused actually bother to turn up and vote in which case they are expected to go for Trump. Trump has launched some devastating personal attacks against the former frontrunner Cruz and is now in the lead and could well win Iowa. If he does then there will be panic all around as it could mean that he sweeps nearly all of the other states and gives the Republican elite a headache about how they can take the nomination away from him.

So it is neck and neck between Sanders and Hillary in Iowa for the Democrats and no one knows for the Republicans because of the religious element, it could be a number of candidates that no one is currently talking about. It will be a huge news story because if Trump does win it, it will be all over world news as the panic sets in.

claig Fri 29-Jan-16 22:16:02

The Iowa vote is on Monday. It isn't in fact that important because usually in the past Iowa has not chosen the candidates who end up President. It won't be a big shock if Hillary loses it and it was expected that Trump will lose it. However, if Trump wins it, all hell will break loose among the Republican elite and there are reports that some may possibly lose it totally.

"Mike McSherry, a longtime campaign consultant and former executive director of the Republican Governors’ Association, said: “If Trump wins Iowa, I don’t know how you’d stop him. All these guys are going to be chewing each other’s throats out for second place.”

A top official of a rival GOP campaign, speaking anonymously to avoid offending his candidate, said: “If Donald Trump wins Iowa, I think he has won—period. Ted Cruz is supposed to win Iowa. If Trump wins, he’ll be on a trajectory to come out of the SEC primaries [March 1] with close to triple the delegates of anyone else.”

www.politico.com/story/2016/01/donald-trump-iowa-momentum-218394

claig Sat 30-Jan-16 23:55:33

Final poll before the Iowa caucus on Monday has just been released - the Des Moines register poll.

It is usually the most accurate

Hillary 45%, Sanders 43% for the Democrats (within the margin of error)

Trump 28%, Cruz 23% for the Republicans

Looking quite good for Trump.

claig Sun 31-Jan-16 00:10:38

I should have said
Hillary 45%, Sanders 42%

Veritat Tue 02-Feb-16 09:32:07

Final poll before the Iowa caucus on Monday has just been released - the Des Moines register poll.

It is usually the most accurate

Trump 28%, Cruz 23% for the Republicans

Apparently not.

claig Tue 02-Feb-16 09:56:54

Veritat, Iowa is one of the most difficult states to poll because it is a caucus rather than a primary and because it has a huge evangelical voter base and because voters have to turn up in the cold and sit in a hall for about 3 hours before they get to vote etc. Only the most dedicated vote and Trump's voters are mainly among new and cross-party types who are not as dedicated as ideological conservatives and religious voters.

So people tell the pollsters they support Trump, but will they turn up and hang around for 3 hours on the night? Not enough did, but it will deifferent in the primaries.

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