Wythenshawe by-election result – for whom?

(55 Posts)
Isitmebut Fri 14-Feb-14 08:05:12

By-elections, known for protest voting against the incumbent government are still pawed over by political parties for voting intensions at the next major elections; so is there anything to be learned by this by-election?

The votes of 28.2% of those eligible to vote (versus 54.3% at the 2010 general election) went like this;
Labour 13,261
Ukip 4,301
Consevatives 3,479
Lib Dems 1.176
Monster Raving Looney Party 288

If Ukip was looking to gain ‘working class’ votes, the 11% increase in Labour’s share of a piddley turnout, would not bode too well, but that COULD have been down to Ukip’s dodgy candidate, his backer, and no national or local policies that mattered – in which case coming second was indeed a result.

The Lib Dems even as a party in government must be disappointed as they have been THE traditional by-election party, gathering the ‘protest vote’ parliamentary seats, unlike Ukip, now 6-times second and still don’t have one seat in parliament to keep the lucky candidate’s bum warm.

The Conservatives, the senior party in a coalition government, making tough, necessary and unpopular, in a Manchester constituency they have not held since 1959, it could have been worse. IMO.

ironmaiden999 Fri 14-Feb-14 09:16:21

Result for UKIP. Quite right isitmebut! grin

BoulevardOfBrokenSleep Fri 14-Feb-14 09:42:38

Wow, was the turnout really that low?

Isitmebut Fri 14-Feb-14 10:32:36

I couldn't swear by the 0.2%, but the 28% big figure is correct.lol

Given all the personal and other considerations of this by-election, I do find that figure disturbing, so people really have to vote in the European Elections in April, as god knows which anti European numpty we might send to the European Parliament on a huge ££££remuneration package.

claig Fri 14-Feb-14 10:41:14

People have disengaged because they are fed up and think change is impossible. They think the politicians are all the same. The turnout in that seat in the General Election was about 50%.

There are a lot of disengaged potential voters out there. If they do eventually vote, I wonder who they will vote for?

More of the same or change?

Isitmebut Fri 14-Feb-14 10:52:10

And you don’t think that the nothing tangible to offer UKip’s ignorant mud slinging at the ‘established political parties’ , pretending their own non policies are a solution, isn’t causing more (confused) voters to disengage????

Ask how many Ukip voters in the EU elections have been led to believe that Ukip can bring the UK out of the EU (which they definitely cannot) – and if it’s not over 50%, I’ll eat Claigs shorts.

Viviennemary Fri 14-Feb-14 11:41:58

I think it shows people are heartily sick of the lib dems. A vote for them at the next election could be a vote for Labour or Conservative. They will team up with whichever party gets the most MP's. Not exactly quite the idea of electing an MP.

ohmymimi Fri 14-Feb-14 11:56:24

claig plus ca change .....

claig Fri 14-Feb-14 12:01:10

ohmymimi, you're right and that is why the turnout is so low.

Isitmebut Fri 14-Feb-14 12:07:10

Viviennemary….rumour has it I am no sandal wearing tree hugger, but I couldn’t disagree with you more.

In my opinion this nation owes the Lib Dems a huge debt of thanks, as in quickly forming a coalition with some joint memo of understanding to the basic policies, stopped potential chaos of old Italian coalition proportions – as such were our financial problems at the time, the markets hating uncertainty, would have forced up interest rates on government bonds funding 9then) £1 trillion of national debt, rather than lowering them to under 2%.

The Lib Dems are also far closer to ‘the working class’ than Ukip, for any protest vote.

The Lib Dems also have 5-years experience running a government/nation in crisis, UKip neither has a parliamentary seat or any talent capable of forming a cabinet, never mind running the country.

So I would agree few Lib Dem voters would ever vote Conservative or Ukip, so the obvious home for socialist Lib Dem votes is a Labour Party that due to ‘favourable’ boundaries on their watch, only needs 35% of the vote to form the next government in 2015.

morry1000 Fri 14-Feb-14 12:10:53

The Conservative Party did well to get 3,479 Votes in Wythenshawe and Sale east. I am amazed they got that many what with Bedroom Tax being very relevant on one of the biggest council estates in euorpe

Isitmebut Fri 14-Feb-14 12:17:55

morry....I guess the that is because there are at least an equal amount of those in council/social housing over crowding and NEEDING bedrooms, as those further up the bedroom chain, who have rooms empty and want to keep them ‘just in case’.

Isitmebut Fri 14-Feb-14 12:24:58

Talking of perceived taxes, maybe at the next election many who complained or marched against the arguably fairer Poll Tax and took Labour's rise in Council Tax of 110% plus over 13-years in their stride - will vote for a coalitions that froze Council Tax rises, since being in office.

soul2000 Fri 14-Feb-14 12:46:27

Isit. Being a Member of the (GOD AWFUL CONSERVATIVE PARTY FOR 22 YEARS NOW" I think I am able to comment ( on the By election of my Families spiritual home ( BEFORE THE 1970 s WHEN WE STARTED TO MAKE MONEY) and before we started losing money because of Labour in the 2000s I actually think 3479 votes is quite encouraging.

What makes me think is "CRAP" though is how Osborne only got 54% of the Vote in my Constituency Tatton ... That goes to show how bad his image is ... Anybody with a Blue Badge in Tatton should get 70% of the vote at least......

Isitmebut Fri 14-Feb-14 13:23:07

Soul2000….encouraging yes, but with over 70% apparently either undecided or couldn’t be ‘assked’ to vote, I can’t see how any one party is really happy they know what’s going on – and that includes Labour who might, just might, have benefited from a sympathy vote for the previous MP who died.

The local NHS card Labour say they played I’m not sure if it became a major issue didn’t benefit the Consevatives, as any Tory on the ground there worth their salt, would have pointed out only they protected the NHS budget going into the last election, so under a 2010 new Newest Labour administration making cuts, how do they know their local hospital WOULD NOT have made the cuts?

Osbournes (lack of) popularity is to be expected, he it taking away New Labour’s orchard of (debt) money trees and few understand how bad it was in 2010 as Labour showed complete electoral cowardice by NOT outlining any of their ‘less cuts and more tax rises’ they promises – so even Conservative Constituencies may show a bit of apathy, as they don’t fully realise they dodged the many bullets Labour had for them. Even now it must be over 22 money giveaways by Miliband, that will be financed by Bankers Bonuses that don’t include much cash, so they need to wise up to the dangers.

If they don’t closer to the 2015 election, it is up to the Conservatives to ensure that they do, which based on Labour’s record, not the false one enthused in socialist folk law, it’s not a tough sell – the facts speak for themselves.

HollyHB Sat 15-Feb-14 02:09:03

Low turnout because many of the traditional Labour Party voters regard the Labour Party big wigs as in the pockets of the bankers just the same as the tories. No material difference between a Conservative Party tory and a Labour Party tory. When there is a bona fide left wing option it will attract votes. For now there aren't any.
I won't vote for anyone who isn't a member of a TUC Trade Union, and that includes most Labour Party candidates.

Spinflight Sat 15-Feb-14 04:43:38

Good night for labour and UKIP ( up 11% and 14.5% respectively)....

Bad night for the tories, who were down 11%!

Awful night for the libdems, they dropped 17.5% from 2010...

Saying that labours gains are only roughly in line with their performance in 2005, they still held the seat with a big majority in 2010 despite Gordon Brown.

As for UKIP despite the election being decided on postal votes in the first week and having no branch or local knowledge 18% is very encouraging.

As for the libdems demanding a recount hoping to save their £500 deposit, if they do that at the next general election every time they lose their deposit the tellers will go on strike!

Isitmebut Sat 15-Feb-14 11:51:02

“As for UKIP despite the election being decided on postal votes in the first week and having no branch or local knowledge 18% is very encouraging.”

Spinflight….”encouraging” on a 28% turnout that is arguable, but a 14% increase in the Red Ukip vote, targeting the low income tax payers with no current policies and having campaigned in 2010 for a 31p Flat Rate of income tax/national insurance, it is a near miracle.

But there we have it, in 2010 Blue Ukip was targeting the Conservative vote, so a 31p Flat tax rate and vouchers for private education was seen as vote winner to the 40p up income tax earners.

I’m guessing that Ukip can only have two very different Ukip’s, depending on who they are targeting, as they had jettisoned their 2010 far right manifesto, so no one has a clue what they actually stand for – which of course works well until at least the April EU elections.

How slippery is that; so I can’t wait to see your blue print to your 2015 General Election manifesto, where the 2010 right of Attila the Hunn Ukip, opportunistically tries to rebalance far left of the political centre, as explains in detail how they have switched what they stand for, to ‘the working class’.

P.S. Seeing senior Ukip people cry on TV about postal votes makes your criticism of Lib Dem’s voters seem rather rich – or is this the official launch of Yellow Ukip as well? lol

Spinflight Sat 15-Feb-14 13:31:52

Our policies went down a storm in Wythenshawe, That's why we increased our vote share by 14.5%.

If you lived in Wythenshawe don't you think a local Grammar school would help your children? Is taking minimum wage earners out of tax altogether a horribly far right policy? Simplifying the tax code to prevent avoidance so that the tories and bankers with fancy lawyers pay their full share?

Democratising the NHS so that you have a say in how it is run and the standards it adheres to?

It was the policies wot wun it frankly. All consistent with our 2010 one too...

ArgyMargy Sat 15-Feb-14 13:37:12

As a Lib Dem voter all my life (I am 50) I feel utterly betrayed by them and am very unlikely to vote for them again. I do not think I'm alone.

Isitmebut Sat 15-Feb-14 14:44:51

Spin…of course grammar schools might help social mobility, is that a lefty policy designed to get socialist constituency votes unaware of the current low standards, or somewhat right of centre, unappealing to a constituency that hasn’t voted Conservative for 35-years?

The coalition within a properly costed budget are taking millions out of tax up to £10,000, what additional measures a Ukip party with no chance of being in power offers, is clearly irrelevant. Have you ever heard the joke about one village shop offering goods cheaper than the other, but never has any?

Simplifying tax codes has already been done, but how that stop avoidance by code I don’t know e.g. pension saving, but I’d suggest that the possibility of a 31p flat rate for every taxpayer, taking many out of taxes altogether AND paying down a huge annual budget deficit, is not possible, but I’d love to see the financial breakdown of those collective policies.

P.S. On your crowing of the Ukip 14.5% increase in your vote to just over 4,000 in a 28% turnout, you realise that you can have a 114.5% increase on your votes next time and it still won’t get you a seat.

Spinflight Sat 15-Feb-14 15:14:22

Lol!

You make me weak Isitmebut... Both laughter and cringe wise..

Our vote was up 529% over 2010, or 14.5% as an absolute.

No maths grads in the tory internet unit I see...

claig Sat 15-Feb-14 15:18:58

'Is taking minimum wage earners out of tax altogether a horribly far right policy? '

Exactly, and scrapping the bedroom tax that the Tories have introduced. Is that right wing?

Spinflight Sat 15-Feb-14 15:47:40

Spending the foreign aid budget on areas of the UK that need it? What right wing monsters we are...

Free eye and dental care? I guess we must be funded by big-lens and big-toothbrush corporations... Loony far right wing that one is.

Isitmebut Sat 15-Feb-14 15:50:20

No Spinflight….the point I was making was that percentage increases from diddly squat, still equal diddly squat, which I find sad as well as funny.

Hello Claig …nice of you to join in, it’s the 31p start rate for most working class people that is rather right wing, the ‘bolting on’ of cash giveaways pretending to be caring to those less well off, to further unbalance taxes in/spending out, is just that.

And as for the Conservative bedroom tax, could you please explain to me how that optional “tax” works on many who have had their chances in life and those who’s children have left home - and how it doesn’t benefits those mainly starting out, overcrowded with 2 or more children to a bedroom?

Btw will the 31p taxes be for the Blue Ukip areas/voters and the caring ones for the Red Ukip, or are you going to mix it a bit?

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