German elections: Death throes of the FDP and Greens?

[longfingernails]

Looks like Merkel will comfortably top the poll.

But her FDP coalition allies (think Lib Dems) are in huge trouble, and will fail to make the 5% threshold. SDP will probably come second but with quite a big margin between Merkel and Steinbruck.

That means the most likely coalition is weirdly CDU-SDP (think Tory-Labour coalition); I find this very odd but then the Germans have always had their little idiosyncracies...

I personally hope that Alternative für Deutschland can pull off a late surge to make the 5% barrier, and thus be a natural coalition partner for the CDU (or failing that, at least keep the CDU honest by providing a genuine anti-EU voice in the Bundestag).

[TheHammaconda]

But hasn't Steinbruck indicated that he would not want to govern as part of a 'Grand Coalition' given the SDP's poor performance in the 2009 election?

There has been a rise in support for the SDP in recent weeks but the CDU are still about 14% ahead in the polls. According to Infratest Dimap the FDP are polling at 5% but their support is well down from its 2009 levels.

[longfingernails]

Interesting view, but I don't feel Steinbruck will have much of a choice. If the SDP is needed to form a centrist majority, and fails to do so, I don't think they will be forgiven.

As for the FDP, their support is vanishing fast. They were wiped out in Bavaria State elections a few days ago www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-15/merkel-gets-election-tailwind-from-bavaria-as-fdp-concerns-grow.html.

Interestingly, Merkel is campaigning against tactical voting for the FDP by CDU supporters uk.reuters.com/article/2013/09/17/uk-germany-election-idUKBRE98G0R220130917. To me, it seems like the wrong approach if she wants to continue with a FDP coalition - she shouldn't endorse tactical voting, but she shouldn't discourage it either.

Glad to see that the CDU is running scared of the AfD though www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/19/us-germany-election-idUSBRE98H0LO20130919 - the right needs to be constantly reminded of the German public's innate euroscepticism to ensure that Merkel stays aligned with Cameron rather than Hollande.

Ultimately, I think Merkel is quite a good Chancellor, but pretty poor at election campaigns.

[TheHammaconda]

Merkel has ruled out ruling with the AfD according to today's Speigel.

52% of Germans would favour a grand coalition Fondation Robert Schuman and Steinbruck has indicated he couldn't rule with Die Linke (as above). However a leftwing coalition of SDP, Die Linke and the Greens could topple Merkel so effectively Steinbruck has already conceded the election.

What I found most interesting was this analysis which concludes that all major parties, bar the FDP, are moving leftwards.

[longfingernails]

For the SDP, moving leftwards is a no-brainer. Die Linke are eating up their vote.

For Merkel, it is a matter of pragmatism - she has never been particularly ideological, so why not take the centre ground abandoned by Steinbruck? Until the AfD came along, there was no serious contender on the right.

That is why I regard the AfD as so important - it means that Merkel can't drift too much to the left.

[TheHammaconda]

I don't think AfD are in any way a serious contender on the right. They're a tiny party who will struggle to gain 5% of the vote. They're more likely to take votes from the FDP than the CDU. I don't think they're enough of a threat to anchor Merkel to the centre ground.

The AfD are currently polling at 4%, about 1% more than the Pirate Party who are currently being dismissed as irrelevant.

[TheHammaconda]

Don't forget this is the first election held under the new electoral system, that could muddy the waters a little.

[longfingernails]

What is the new electoral system? I hadn't heard about that.

[TheHammaconda]

The previous system was ruled unconstitutional. link

[longfingernails]

Thanks, what a strange voting system.

Exit polls seem to suggest the FDP is dead. The AfD looks to be just below the threshold.

It might just be possible that Merkel has an overall majority with just the CDU/CSU! But most likely is a CDU/SDP coalition.