Olympic Weather Forecast thread

(117 Posts)

I've dithered between putting it in this section and the weather section.....

Quick disclaimer: Remember I'm an amateur forecaster and so I do get things wrong. Please don't make critical decisions based on any forecasts in this thread!

I'll only work up to 10 days in advance (which is five more days than I do normally any more than that and it really is getting into utter guess work. Anything after 5 days is really just trends and possibilities) Also please bear with me if I dont get round to answering everyones individual questions. As we go through the days the forecasts will change.

So:
27th July (Opening Ceremony)
All 3 main models I look at are showing a low pressure developing to the south with a warm (hot in the se?) and humid air mass. This means that heavy showers are likely in the south possibly with thunderstorms. (nature adding an extra light show to the evenings entertainments?)

Sat 28th July
Cooler, with temps in the south in the low 20's. (In Scotland it looks bloody cold according to GFS, with temps struggling to reach 10C!) Unsettled with widespread showers.

"Sun 29th July*
Looking decidedly unsettled according to GFS with low pressure dominating and cool temps - mid to high teens pretty much across the UK. However ECMWF looks more optimistic with high pressure forming in the wings - so lets hope that is the more accurate model smile

PoppyWearer Sat 21-Jul-12 16:34:29

I need a dry weekend next weekend! If you can arrange that please I'd be most grateful. grin

zandy Sat 21-Jul-12 16:39:05

I need a dry Saturday next week. Status Quo in the open air. They're too old to have to perform in the cold and the wet. Worcestershire.

Prays to the OYBK weather goddess.

PoppyWearer Sat 21-Jul-12 16:44:17

Should we start making ritual sacrifices to the weather Gods?

I need it dry next weekend! We are going to the dressage on Sunday and staying up in London the night before - dont want to be carrying round wet weather gear!

Madsometimes Sat 21-Jul-12 18:02:51

Thanks so much for this, I was hoping that you would do a forecast smile.

I'm at the equestrian on the 31st, and the temporary grandstand is uncovered. Hopefully there will be no rain, otherwise everyone will get soaked.

Maryz Sat 21-Jul-12 18:12:34

I would like, if possible, to have one dry day in August, preferably a Wednesday, so ds and his friends can go to the beach.

Do you suppose that is too much to ask [bitter]

<ignores entire rest of thread, presuming this is an "Ask OYBBK to manage the weather" thread>

grin

Maryz Sat 21-Jul-12 18:13:22

Oh, on a serious note, dh would like to know about wind. He's worried about wind, not rain, on account of being a rower. He would like a calm day on Thursday 2nd please.

If only I had the power maryz!

Is your dh rowing in the Olympics? The 2nd is rather far out, but at the moment the winds are shown by gfs to,be very light, with high pressure ( sort of) over us.

GobblersKnob Sat 21-Jul-12 18:33:03

Sod the Olympics, ds's birthday is on the 27th (far more important), please say the Midlands will be dry and I will be a happy bunny grin

CointreauVersial Sat 21-Jul-12 18:35:54

I will be trudging round Chessington with five over-excited 9-year-olds on Friday 27th, so my fingers are firmly crossed that cagoules won't be needed.

Maryz Sat 21-Jul-12 18:42:39

Oh, no, he retired many years ago, but he is going to watch. Light winds sound great.

redwhiteandblueeyedsusan Sat 21-Jul-12 20:52:52

ahem, the olympics start on the 25th round here, before the opening ceronomy.

I didn't know that Susan! That's a bit silly! grin

25 th July - well, bit of a scorcher really across the south and midlands with temps in the high 20s or even perhaps 30c. Cooler in the north esp in coastal areas. Dry pretty much everywhere.

26 th July - high temps become more confined to the south! Maybe the odd shower further north.

Ok, todays guess forecast

25 th July - well, bit of a scorcher really across the south and midlands with temps in the high 20s or even perhaps 30c. Cooler in the north esp in coastal areas. Mostly dry, but perhaps the odd shower in the Midlands and northern England.

26 th July - high temps become more confined to the south but still warm for a good part of England and wales. Maybe the odd shower further north.

27th July (Opening Ceremony)
becoming trickier to forecast looking at todays models. Perhaps the opening ceremony may get away with out rain with the warmth hanging on to the south a teeny bit longer? heavy showers are possible, perhaps with thunderstorms. (nature adding an extra light show to the evenings entertainments?)

Sat 28th July
The models differ a little today between themselves but essentially bringing roughly the same result. Cooler, with temps in the south in the low 20's. (In Scotland it looks pretty cold according to GFS, with temps struggling to get much above the low teens. Unsettled with widespread showers.

Sun 29th July
Looking decidedly unsettled according to GFS with low pressure dominating and cool temps - mid to high teens pretty much across the UK. However ECMWF looks more optimistic with high pressure forming in the wings - so lets hope that is the more accurate model

Mon 30th and Tues 31st July
Well the models are split utterly I'm afraid, with ECMWF looking rather more positive than GFS. no point in me trying to guess which one will be correct. So it will either be an improving picture, warming up and drying out again, or it will be wettish and cool.

Maryz Sun 22-Jul-12 10:07:56

OYBBK, I just love your last sentence - "it will either be an improving picture, warming up and drying out again, or it will be wettish and cool", that is a great forecast for an English summer grin.

It really does sum up how absolutely impossible it is to be 100% certain of anything when weather forecasting!

grin No point in me making it up -I've not got a clue what will happen!

Madsometimes Sun 22-Jul-12 10:24:42

Well, you right for today. It's lovely here smile. I don't know what to wear.

It is splendiferous isnt it! smile a perfect summers day where I am.

Met office website now extends to fri afternoon and has showers round London way.
Still, there's time for it to change yet!

25 th July - Rather a hot day really across the south and midlands with temps in the high 20s or even perhaps 30c. Far SW coasts perhaps rather cooler. Cooler in the north esp in coastal areas. Mostly dry, but perhaps the odd shower in the Midlands and northern England.

26 th July - Similar temp pattern to the 25th. still warm for a good part of England and wales. Maybe the odd shower further north.

27th July (Opening Ceremony)
Looking like a heavy showers day all day in Scotland. Showers in the south in the afternoonand evening, some thundery. This I'm afraid is looking quite likely to hit the opening ceremony.

Sat 28th July
Cooler, with temps in the south in the low 20's. (In Scotland it looks pretty cold according to GFS, with temps struggling to get much above the low teens. Unsettled with widespread showers.

Sun 29th July
Looking decidedly unsettled with low pressure dominating and cool temps - mid to high teens pretty much across the UK. Looking wet for many places sad

Mon 30th
Looking cool and unsettled

Tues 31st July
sad

Weds 1 Aug
rather cool/cold and damp.

smile
A quick glance shows gfs to be much less gloomy about the prospects for the weekend and beyond this evening. Will give a proper updated look tomorrow, keep your fingers crossed!

Morning all!
seems very quiet on this thread. I hope that people are reading it as its taking me a fair amount of time to put it together! Weekend is looking very much better in the south than the models a day or two were indicating.

25th July - Rather a hot day really across the south and midlands with temps in the high 20s or even perhaps above 30c (esp in London area). Far SW coasts perhaps rather cooler. Cooler in the north esp in coastal areas. Mostly dry, but perhaps the odd shower in the Midlands and northern England.

26th July - Similar temp pattern to the 25th. still warm/hot for a good part of England and wales but temps a little down perhaps. Maybe the odd shower further north.

27th July (Opening Ceremony)
Looking like a heavy showers day for much of the day in Scotland. Some showers in northern England too (and into the Midlands?) By the afternoon in the London area some heavy showers and possibly thunderstorms. This I'm afraid is looking quite likely to hit the opening ceremony.

Sat 28th July
Much Cooler, with temps in the south in the low 20's. In Scotland it looks pretty cold with temps struggling to get much above the low teens. Rain is showing a north south divide with the south now probably escaping.

Sun 29th July
cool temps - mid to high teens pretty much across the UK. Rain moves south through the day, whole of the uk to be affected by the end of the day??

Mon 30th
Looking cool and showery.

Tues 31st July

Perhaps a dry start for some but again cool and showery.

Weds 1 Aug, Thurs 2 Aug
rather cool/cold and damp.

Madsometimes Tue 24-Jul-12 09:50:52

Checking in smile. Looks like I'll need wet weather gear for the whole family.

morning Mad smile

perhaps I should have put this in a more high traffic area, but I didnt want it to get lost. It is a real pity that the weather is going to change so much. still on the positive side at least theres less chance of heat stroke!

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