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Generally speaking even if the bulge year has created a secondary but smaller 'bulge' year the Council and schools will be aware of this long before they need to accommodate these children. If needs be the Council will ask a local school to add an extra class for that school year.
That's the trouble with Reigate - great for families in a lot of ways but this is the downside.
I think you should check how many classes they will have at Holmesdale for the Sept 2014 reception year. This year they had 4 classes and people I know who live on Cockshot Hill (and further) have got places at Holmesdale, so you would definitely have got a place at Holmesdale last September. Even if the classes drop back to 3, I thought you should still get a place if you live nr Nutley Lane.
Have you called Surrey County Council - they are really helpful and will be able to answer lots of questions. Also, if you go online you can find the distance your house is from the school and then compare that against places offered by distance for previous years (if you haven't already done this?)
My DS is currently 3, and will be starting at school in September 2014. Our closest school is an OFSTED outstanding, but we've been rejected a place at their pre-school as it's 'over-subscribed'. This has given me the fear that my DS will not get a school place there- as the pre-school uses the standard school criteria for entry (albeit there are less children at pre-school then in reception).
So, I've written my shortlist of all the schools that we should visit in the local area. However, I've also phoned the two independent schools and asked how they're are looking for reception entry. RSM's is full already! (with another 22 on the waiting list). I was slightly stunned. M'fld will take a terms deposit for fees off me should we be allocated a place and not take it up, prior to us finding out the results of the state school ballot. Can't really afford to squander 2.5k for a 'deposit'.
I am a bit fazed, and realise that perhaps I should have been quicker off the mark! My DS is my PFB, so we don't have much experience of the school system. Any other suggestions of where we should look, and which state schools we should consider? We are the Nutley Lane side of Reigate.
Like many others I'd like a private school place 'in reserve' just in case we don't get allocated a state school that we like- but think we've missed the boat!