Missing Malaysian Airlines MH-370 - Thread 6

(734 Posts)
member Thu 27-Mar-14 09:31:02
DowntonTrout Thu 27-Mar-14 09:37:40

There has been no press conference this morning as there is no news.

Other than a Thai satelite has picked up a debris field of 2-300 objects about 120 miles from the search area.

member Thu 27-Mar-14 09:39:50

Thanks Downton. I have posted on the previous thread that I have asked for threads 1-5 to be moved from _chat to in the news.

Thought Malaysian Airlines would be doing a PC?

PansBigChainring Thu 27-Mar-14 09:45:11

Caught a KL lawyer this morning indicating that the launching of law suits is a 'fishing trip' to reveal otherwise unreleased information. Being less than honest in a press conference doesn't carry the same implication as failing to disclose known information to an officer of a court. Seems to be.

member Thu 27-Mar-14 09:47:01

Thai satellite images tweeted here

I would like to see a graphic that has the Inmersat predicted arc(s) & the position of all the satellite images marked on - anyone found one?

Just marking my place on the new one smile

SantasLittleMonkeyButler Thu 27-Mar-14 09:49:14

So much reported debris! Hopefully toda. will be the day some part of it is recovered and either confirmed as part of the plane or ruled out. I have no conspiracy theory & am working on the assumption that the plane did crash into the Southern Indian Ocean. The poor relatives need some evidence & transparent answers now - my fear is they will never receive either.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Thu 27-Mar-14 09:50:39

There was one on the Malsysian transport ministry FB page linked on the last thread.

Purpleknickers Thu 27-Mar-14 09:56:16

I cannot believe that the Malaysian authorities would be so bold as to say the plane crashed into the Southern Indian ocean if there was any other outcome.
I heard on the radio this morning that the search had been called off again due to bad weather, those poor relatives just waiting sad

Re the search being called off for bad weather, i understand how this affects the planes etc, but what about the boats that are already in the area? Why cant they look? Or do they leave the area if the weather is that bad too? <idiot alert!>

member Thu 27-Mar-14 10:05:46

Doctrine those give me the satellite sighting positions but not in relation to the two predicted flight arcs Inmersat calculated (400 knots & 450 knots)

member Thu 27-Mar-14 10:07:21

When the weather was bad the other day, HMAS Success was reported to have moved back from the search area.

member Thu 27-Mar-14 10:15:48

Statement instead of PC by Ministry of Transport :

PRESS STATEMENT
BY MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT, MALAYSIA

THURSDAY, 27 MARCH 2014, 5:50PM

1. Chinese Special Envoy

a. Yesterday, His Excellency Zhang Yesui, the Chinese Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs and Special Envoy of the Government of China, met with the Prime Minister and Dato’ Seri Hishammuddin, the Acting Minister of Transport and the Minister of Defence.

b. Following the meeting with Dato’ Seri Hishammuddin, His Excellency Zhang Yesui also received a comprehensive technical briefing by the international working group, led by the AAIB. Inmarsat’s findings - which led to the conclusion that MH370 ended in the southern Indian Ocean - were explained during the meeting.

c. The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) and the Aircraft Accident Investigation Department (AAID) of the CAAC were present at yesterday’s technical briefing. The CAAC and AAID have been, and will continue to be, members of the international working group.

d. Today His Excellency Zhang Yesui also met with the Chinese relatives of those on board MH370 who are currently in KL.

e. Malaysia is committed to working closely with the Government of China and to sharing all information related to MH370 in full.

2. Family briefing in Beijing

a. Yesterday, the Malaysian high-level team met with the Chinese relatives of those on board MH370 who are based in Beijing, for the fourth time. Over the duration of the three hour meeting, the relatives received a technical briefing and an update on the search operation. The high-level team also answered questions. Today, the high-level team met relatives again, at 3:25pm Malaysia time. The meeting is still underway.

b. Malaysia is working hard to try and make the briefings to the Chinese relatives in Beijing more productive. Malaysian officials met with His Excellency Huang Huikang, China’s Ambassador to Malaysia, to request the Government of China to engage and clarify the actual situation to the affected families in particular and the Chinese public in general.

3. Operational update

a. The planned area of search today was 16,298 square nautical miles in the West sector, and 6,506 square nautical miles in the East sector.

b. The area identified by the Malaysian Remote Sensing Agency (MRSA) yesterday – where the 122 potential objects were sighted – was also due to be searched today.

c. Today, nine planes travelled to the search area – five in the East sector and four in the West sector.

In the East sector, searches by air were conducted by:
· two Australian civilian aircraft.

· one Chinese Ilyushin IL-76.

· one New Zealand civil aircraft.

· one Japanese Gulfstream.

In the West sector, searches by air were conducted by:
· two Australian P-3 Orions.

· two Australian civil aircraft.

d. Today six ships were deployed in the search area – one in the East sector and five in the West sector.

In the East sector, searches by ship were conducted by:
· one Chinese ship (the Xue Long).

In the West sector, searches by ship were conducted by:
· four Chinese ships (the Kunlunshan, Haikou, Qiandaohui, and Zhonghaishaohua).

· one Australian ship (the HMAS Success).

e. One Chinese ship (the Hai Xun) is expected to arrive in the search area tonight.

f. Today the weather deteriorated in the search area and search operations were suspended at 11:40am.

4. Malaysian team going to Perth

a. Malaysia is in the process of sending a team, comprised of the DCA, MAS, the Royal Malaysian Navy and the Royal Malaysian Air Force, to Perth. This team will work closely with the Australian Rescue Co-ordination Centre to assist with the search operation.

-ENDS-

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Thu 27-Mar-14 10:26:00

The BBC has one with the 400 knot and 450 knot routes and all the sightings, it's not a globe projection though.

fflonkl Thu 27-Mar-14 10:34:42

LoopyDoopyDoo I've seen that - more conspiracy theories, Malaysian style, with all the usual baddies (Americans and Israelies!) in there!!

Putting my cynical hat on, I think China is using this as a way to find out as much as they can on other nations' satellite capabilities. I also find it quite ironic that on the one hand the Chinese FM demanded the Malaysian government hand over proof wrt why it thinks the plane is in the south Indian Ocean, but on the other hand sends its ships and planes to the search area. And it wouldn't surprise me (more cynicism here), if, in future, China uses this incident somehow to force concessions from Malaysia over trade/Spratlys etc.

Manchesterhistorygirl Thu 27-Mar-14 10:38:08

Am I being really dense, but I can't understand why it's taking so long for the ships to get to the debris field?

member Thu 27-Mar-14 10:38:40

Thanks Doctrine

I think Friday was due to be a changeover day for the searchers i..e fresh personnel to be updated by current so dubious that there will be a search tomorrow even if weather improves.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Thu 27-Mar-14 10:43:05

Because it's 2500 miles away from Perth - there's no reason for ships to be anywhere near there typically.

The maximum speed of military ships is about 30 knots (28 knots = 52kph) - the plane was probably flying at 400-450 knots.

member Thu 27-Mar-14 10:46:58

MNHQ have confirmed earlier threads been moved from chat to in the news

allisgood1 Thu 27-Mar-14 10:50:24

Place marking. Disappointed we are approaching the end of another week with no proof of debris.

Manchesterhistorygirl Thu 27-Mar-14 11:01:28

The first images were released to us on the 16th, that was ten days ago! If it takes a cruise ship trundling along at 23 knots seven days to cross the Atlantic, which is 3500 miles then why is it taking so long for warships capable of 30 knots so long to cover a shorter distance? We keep hearing the debris site is only "120 miles" or so from where ships are, so my point remains, why is it taking so long for this debris to be analysed from sea level?

Manchesterhistorygirl Thu 27-Mar-14 11:02:03

Even if it is just flotsam and jetsam the families need to know.

DowntonTrout Thu 27-Mar-14 11:07:48

manchestergirl I think the issue is that by the time the satellite images have been scrutinised the debris has drifted/dispersed/sunk. By the time they get there the search area changes and so on. Also things that are seen from the air are less easy to spot from sea level. They are playing catch up.

fflonkl Thu 27-Mar-14 11:08:28

manchesterhistorygirl the weather is super bad there, no land mass to break up storms which can just rage around unabated.

Have you seen the videos taken from ships in the area? I feel almost sea-sick watching them!

traininthedistance Thu 27-Mar-14 11:43:13

Marking place on the new thread....

Eyelet Thu 27-Mar-14 11:53:37

Marking place

AchyFox Thu 27-Mar-14 12:03:41

I'm surprised the Oz navy aren't getting a few of there helicopters down there.

It must be anguish having all these reports of debris, and not a single piece actually picked up or even positively identified.

nauticant Thu 27-Mar-14 12:13:43

I'm surprised the Oz navy aren't getting a few of there helicopters down there.

Those helicopters don't have enough range to even get to the relevant area letting alone get back.

http://www.navy.mil/navydata/fact_display.asp?cid=1200&tid=500&ct=1

nauticant Thu 27-Mar-14 12:17:15

Actually I see that that's probably the wrong Seahawk variant. But none of the Seahawks have enough range to be able to get there and back.

GarlicMarchHare Thu 27-Mar-14 12:21:48

Tin hat fodder:-

Last night I ferreted around for info about the US imaging satellites. Although it was unclear - to me, I was following dozens of technical links - whether the latest version is yet operative, the existing generation does, in fact, carry optical equipment that is as good as or better than Hubble. They 'photograph' every inch of the Earth and they do follow a pole-to-pole orbit. MacInerney was telling the truth about that. I can't say which orbits they follow, or how many there are, because my maths isn't that good.

As to whether America has shared images from the relevant time with the investigation team or, if not, why not: evidently I have no clue at all. I understand why they wouldn't have made a 'thing' about it, as they would then have to stonewall a bunch of potentially compromising demands for more details.

Fodder from forums:-

Flying low past the Maldives would be a good way to evade radar in the area. There are mountainous 'shadows' well-placed to provide cover. This would precisely explain three of the visual sightings. Whatever was going on, the guy was a genius pilot.

New radar systems have something called SARS (? from memory) that offers three-dimensional cover, which traditional radar doesn't, so can pinpoint altitude and velocity. It would still be susceptible to physical obstacles, though, depending on placement. Obviously nobody's saying whether they have this, or where.

I'm going to do my best to stay right away from this today! If I have to replace it with catching up on Crimea, so be it grin

GarlicMarchHare Thu 27-Mar-14 12:30:43

Oh, random detail about imaging satellites, which I found kind of cute - The first generation took actual photographs, spitting out canisters of film on little parachutes, which then had to be collected on the Earth's surface! Wow! What dedication smile

AchyFox Thu 27-Mar-14 12:31:41

Those helicopters don't have enough range

I was envisaging something like this:

nauticant Thu 27-Mar-14 12:34:47

Ha, fair enough.

MooseBeTimeForSpring Thu 27-Mar-14 12:59:48

Most merchant vessels have a speed through water, in good conditions, of about 15 knots. By my calculations it would take a week to get from Perth to the site. If they're sailing into bad weather against the wind and current they could be slowed considerably.

MooseBeTimeForSpring Thu 27-Mar-14 13:01:14

HMAS Success

RustyParker Thu 27-Mar-14 13:27:22

How awful for the families to be so close to the prospect of potentially finding debris and having some tangible evidence of what happened only to be constantly thwarted by such terrible weather conditions. It's hard to imagine the kind of limbo they must be in and the guilt they must feel almost willing the debris to be from MH370.

TheHoneyBadger Thu 27-Mar-14 14:54:11

thanks for starting new thread member.

garlic i've also been reading up on US satellite capacities in the area - seems that every fifteen minutes assertion is true.

also reading up on the actual technology being produced by freescale and the companies links including very technical info much of which is obviously way over my head but they are certainly not the kind of oh it's just mobile phone stuff that was being assumed at one stage. massive military implications and applications for their technology.

very glad to see people haven't been silenced or 'shamed' by the whole if you question the bbc and like to do your own research and look at global reporting rather than just your national broadcasting companies take on things you must be a raging conspiracy theorist nutter.

i like a wide range of sources personally and a feel for how different cultures and socio-political systems perceive things.

TheHoneyBadger Thu 27-Mar-14 14:55:52

my grammar has gone to pot sorry. lots of companies where it should say company's amongst other things. dealing with hellish work stuff so a bit head fuddled currently.

theswan Thu 27-Mar-14 14:58:45

Me Too AchyFox

backinthebox Thu 27-Mar-14 15:07:37

Did I mean to be so rude? Well, yes, to be blunt. Reproducing such rubbish isn't helping anyone, is it? Pilots are a particularly close-knit group. By doing our job day to day we are often in situations that would seriously concern most people (only a couple of weeks ago I had an electrical failure over Siberia. The passengers never knew, neither did Air Traffic Control. We dealt with it.) Sometimes we act on the knowledge we have, with the best intentions, and it's not enough. And every single time, regardless of whether the pilots are to blame or not, the finger is pointed at them at some point.

At this moment in time there is no conclusive information as to what has happened here. With regard to the speculation, especially the more outlandish theories, I think it would be sensible to apply the old adage "is it true, is it kind, is it necessary?' Some avenues of speculation are not helpful to anyone, particularly the families of the people who have been lost. Wherever they are and whatever has happened, I think the only thing that pilots will agree on is that they are definitely lost.

I think anyone hoping for quick answers will be disappointed, sadly. Just getting some of the potential wreckage then identifying it beyond doubt could take weeks in these conditions.

AngelaDaviesHair Thu 27-Mar-14 15:47:21

Australia has no aircraft carrier, only frigates.

AngelaDaviesHair Thu 27-Mar-14 16:06:05

Sorry, that was in response to AchyFox's picture.

NumanoidNancy Thu 27-Mar-14 17:04:48

What Honeybadger said.

I think we are all perfectly aware these days that governments lie and cover stuff up as a matter of routine, as do big companies, banks, police forces and the military, even just going on UK news items in the last six months. Their mates in the media are all equally complicit and happy to keep schtum when there is something in it for them. I've never been a natural conspiracy theorist but its not surprising that people are increasingly sceptical and curious about official versions of anything like this as am I. Its not disrespectful to discuss the issues involved or for even the wilder speculation to be voiced. If anything
I think it would be more awfully isolating for the families of the dead if they were the only ones who had their doubts and everyone else was patting them on the head and telling them to stop questioning the official line.

TheHoneyBadger Thu 27-Mar-14 17:12:05

exactly nancy - i think it would be 'crazy' and 'irrational' NOT to question and critically analyse official accounts.

it's also important to squarely the face the morality of superpowers and the lengths they will go to. look up how many iraqi civilians have been killed and then tell me that national powers would never do anything bad or hurt people. you know? they WERE real people - women and children just trying to go about their lives.

it's not different if they have a different colour skin to you or a different religion or live in a different part of the world. people who are willing to murder hundreds of thousands of civilians are.. people who are willing to murder hundreds of thousands of civilians.

do i question the motives, integrity and morality of such people? yes of course i bloody do and so should everyone if they haven't become so desensitised to brutal mass murder in the name of politics and money.

TheHoneyBadger Thu 27-Mar-14 17:15:24

look at drones ffs and the things they have been used for. you really think good, decent, humane people create and deploy such things?

or what - you think that people who can do such things are somehow bound by an inner boundary that only lets them do it to people 'over there' but they'd never do it to others? it's irrational to place such trust in powers that have so little respect for human life or justice.

wake up ffs!

i'm not suggesting ANY particular theory but i am suggesting you keep your brain and rational thinking switched on and don't blindly hand over trust to people who are capable of killing thousands of people to make a point.

TheHoneyBadger Thu 27-Mar-14 17:17:10

like seriously would YOU give the order that killed a hundred thousand women and children stuck in a city on the other side of the world? could you do it?

if not then why on earth would trust anyone who could and has done that?

allisgood1 Thu 27-Mar-14 18:32:30

You think they give those orders for fun!? The military are protecting us and our country. Have some respect.

PansBigChainring Thu 27-Mar-14 18:40:00

No they make decisions with national interests in mind, and will do so ruthlessly IF 'they' deem it fit to. Hiroshima and Nagasaki (as well as blanket bombing, nerve agent, etc) demonstrates that if the motivation is there, then life is massively devalued.
This circumstance is somewhere where it's v healthy to remain massively sceptical of the authorities motives. fwiw.

KareninsGirl Thu 27-Mar-14 18:51:34

"exactly nancy - i think it would be 'crazy' and 'irrational' NOT to question and critically analyse official accounts"

I do agree, honey. There is a lot we are never told.

singersgirl Thu 27-Mar-14 19:01:05

But what makes you think this is in any way comparable to Hiroshima?
Of course intelligent scepticism is good but I don't think reading a variety of websites of dubious provenance is really 'research' nor that anyone without specialist knowledge is genuinely in a position to 'research' with only Google as their supervising professor.

TheHoneyBadger Thu 27-Mar-14 19:46:30

i do have respect - for the lives of the hundreds of thousands of civilians killed in the last decade or so by politically motivated 'wars'. i really do not believe it necessary to bomb the living daylights out of civilians or send drones into residential areas to protect us.

GarlicMarchHare Thu 27-Mar-14 20:00:21

In my view, along with HoneyBadger, Pan, nancy and a few other less-blinkered posters, it's healthy to explore possible explanations. Though not all that healthy to do it as much as I've been doing <consoles self with improved knowledge of avionics> Mysteries usually mean cover-ups and I make no apology for being interested in other people's opinions on what was covered up, how, and why. It's ridiculous to insist we shouldn't be interested & concerned because we don't know the answers, singers. Nobody's telling you to abandon your passive attitude, but neither do you have the right to tell others to adopt it!

HoneyBadger was right about the Freescale people: they weren't all admin staff by any means. I felt too ghoulish & miserable to look many of them up. Here's a few:
Huan Peen Chan, 46, Malaysian, Computing engineer
Safuan Ramlan, 32, Malaysian, Manufacturing planner
John Xu, 57, Chinese, Systems design manager
Suhaili Mustafa, 31, Malaysian, Industrial engineer
All high-ranking.

Passenger manifest
RIP sad

singersgirl Thu 27-Mar-14 20:22:31

So it's 'active' to spend your time on an Internet forum discussing conspiracy theories ? I am neither blinkered nor passive but choose to spend my time - mostly - in activities to which I can contribute meaningfully (Obviously this thread is an exception).

A mystery does not mean a cover up. It just means something for which an answer has not yet been found.

And I write as, probably, one of the few people on this thread who has a close relative who has died in a commercial plane crash.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Thu 27-Mar-14 21:27:48

"Mysteries usually mean cover-ups"

Really?

What happened to the Air France plane was initially a mystery; if the black box hadn't kept pinging for well past its battery life, I think it still would be. It still would have been the blocked pitot tubes and the pilot error that brought it down - we just wouldn't have known.

What happened to the old adage - "if something could be conspiracy or cock up, it's probably cock up"

claig Thu 27-Mar-14 21:44:11

"if something could be conspiracy or cock up, it's probably cock up"

That's what the conspirators always say.
People stopped believing that years ago.

Treasures Thu 27-Mar-14 22:09:52

"You think they give those orders for fun!?"

Not for fun. But if not prepared to give those orders, they would presumably not have chosen a profession where such an order may be deemed necessary to give.

AnyaKnowIt Thu 27-Mar-14 22:11:41

So bad weather has stopped the searches again

member Thu 27-Mar-14 22:20:49

Stopped the air searches - apparently there was an interview with captain of HMAS Success on Australian radio today during which he said they were continuing to search.

[[ http://www.tomnod.com/nod/challenge/#mh370_indian_ocean/map/835894 Tomnod]]

Zooming in on biggest white blob (easier on a tablet) ?? Cockpit windscreen??

member Thu 27-Mar-14 22:22:59
member Thu 27-Mar-14 22:32:25

Sorry, Captain HMAS Success is a She

PopOfTheTops Thu 27-Mar-14 22:49:10

Trying to catch up on the last few threads but struggling.

Can someone please pretty please recap the Inmarsat thing?

Also, that tomnod link...omg. It is totally a cockpit windscreen. sad

LoopyDoopyDoo Thu 27-Mar-14 22:54:09

I apologise to the rest of you, as I was going to leave my upset on the last thread, but backinthebox's reponse has pissed me off.

I am in Malaysia, seeing and hearing a very different kind of national upset to anything I've seen before. Tonight I'm picking up a friend who has had to come back from his posting in another region because his partner, who is MAS cabin crew, simply cannot cope with the loss of his close friends in such circumstances. Next week I am taking a group of school children on a MAS flight to another SE Asian country, and the are frightened. Later tonight I am going to see another friend, who is preparing his speech for his best friend's service at temple. This friend has a wife and two small children who cannot now see their father ever again and have no idea how they will live. What is he going to say in his speech, for crying out loud?

Just because you claim to be a pilot doesn't mean you can silence other people. Your opinion is no more valuable than anyone else's, despite the fawning over pilots etc. we've seen on these threads. I assume we are actually on the same page about most things. I have emphatically said we should not be assuming pilot fault over the threads. I have friends who are pilots. Friends who are also questioning the official line on this.

I reposted something that is going around Facebook and Whatsapp, amongst Malaysian friends. The article may be fantastical, but it's in line with the kids of speculation that a lot of Malaysians are considering.

So, to go back to your first insult, look at your name, backinthebox.

GarlicMarchHare Thu 27-Mar-14 23:24:20

Does this help, Pop.

Thanks for your strong post, Loopy. I can just about imagine what it must be like, there in the centre of the tragedy. I feel for you and for your friends.

the Air France plane was initially a mystery - Rubbish, Doctrine! The technical mystery was exactly why what happened, did happen (even with the black box, there was disagreement on that). There was no mystery at all about what happened - the ACARS transmitted throughout the incident, and wreckage was found the next day. No resemblance between the two events.

ItsNotATest Thu 27-Mar-14 23:36:54

I haven't seen anyone fawning over pilots confused

GarlicMarchHare Thu 27-Mar-14 23:44:42

Not sure we have any actual pilots smile There may have been unusual regard afforded to posters who said they work in aviation. Unusual for MN, that is - we're not usually renowned for our unquestioning devotion to posters on the basis of what they say about themselves wink

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Thu 27-Mar-14 23:58:48

Backinthebox is a pilot who has posted as such on past threads.

whoneedstosleep Fri 28-Mar-14 01:58:07

Piers Morgan tweeting for CNN saying search area has now changed as plane was going faster than first thought. Anyone seen anything else about this?

Treasures Fri 28-Mar-14 02:03:57

Just saw on BBC the search area has been shifted due to new 'credible lead'.

Treasures Fri 28-Mar-14 02:05:03

Search to move 1100km north east of current area

Treasures Fri 28-Mar-14 02:11:47
TheHoneyBadger Fri 28-Mar-14 05:28:10

yes based on a further analysis of the radar coverage between china sea and malacca straits - what with that being the only coverage you allegedly have of a plane that disappeared you wouldn't have analysed that to death straight away would you?

member Fri 28-Mar-14 05:39:54

I thought the speed on radar between South China Sea & Malacca Straits would have been known quite a while back confused since the primary radar playback was visualized.

On the positive side, New search area closer to land & out of the roaring forties though will take ships time to travel there.

These threads have become an embarrassment.

TheHoneyBadger Fri 28-Mar-14 06:40:56

how constructive hmm still i hope you feel better for getting that off your chest.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 06:59:35

"You wouldn't have analysed that to death straight away would you?"

Analyses take time, especially if they are using the data in a different way to normal. I thought we established that on the last thread wrt Inmarsat.

TheHoneyBadger Fri 28-Mar-14 07:07:40

very different data to the inmarsat stuff - re: picked up on radar at point x and time 1, at point y at time 2 ergo it took z amount of time to travel from point x to point y so the speed was....? and this was information available immediately and of the key window in which the plane changed course and was the 'only' data available at that point.

PansBigChainring Fri 28-Mar-14 07:08:53

tmf - if you're embarrassed don't look.

this 'new info' 3 weeks later doesn't do anything to quell the conspiracy concerns though does it? The relatives must be incredulous.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 07:13:53

I doubt it's as simple as that HB because the time of two radar contacts has already been published. So unless one of those was wrong, and has now been corrected, I suspect there's another radar point.

TheHoneyBadger Fri 28-Mar-14 07:24:33

there will have been more radar points - and once those radar points and times are there they can then look at satellite at that point and time.... it's not unreasonable at all to be stunned by the gaps in all this.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 07:26:00

I don't think satellites cover the whole globe at once, do they?

TheHoneyBadger Fri 28-Mar-14 07:32:32

we know that they do cover that area of the world. the U.S ones circle the globe in 15mins - so pass over every 15mins.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 07:34:59

But they don't cover every square mile of the earth.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 07:42:22

A 15 min orbit is awfully quick for a satellite.

allisgood1 Fri 28-Mar-14 08:09:18

So now all the debris they claim to have seen on satellite "isn't debris"? This is getting somewhat ridiculous. Those poor families.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 08:17:03

There were lots of images on satellites but it's always been made clear that they can't be identified from this.

If it is every 15 mins, assuming most of them are not paying closer attention to Crimea at the moment, then that is an awful lot of info to process. Despite what some people may like to believe, I doubt this is at the top of the US's priorites considering what else is going on in the world. It's a horrible tragedy for the families but the US have had their own disasters this week. Those incidents may not be as dramatic to the more swivel-eyed amongst us but dead is dead.

noddyholder Fri 28-Mar-14 08:39:26

I am still amazed they made that definitive statement to the families without 100% surety It is def getting suspicious now I thought uk team had 'solved' it Now looking in different area

DowntonTrout Fri 28-Mar-14 08:42:27

Can someone just explain- I thought the InMARSAT data was precise as to the pings and the position of the final, partial handshake? I mean since they were able to work out speed/direction with the Doppler effect etc. had they not managed to work it out down to about 200 miles or so?

allisgood1 Fri 28-Mar-14 09:05:46

I can imagine this has put more doubt into families minds about the accuracy of the statements made about the fatality of the plane

MerryMarigold Fri 28-Mar-14 09:09:21

It always looks so final when they draw it on maps. I imagine the INMARSAT data was not extremely precise. I wonder what data made them think it was travelling faster than previously thought though.

Why are the US so silent on all this?

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 09:12:34

Downton - no. The Inmarsat data is accurate to within 100 miles of the arc either side (or possibly 50 miles either side). They are still looking on the arc just further up it.

They didn't get speed from the Doppler analysis, only direction.

TheHoneyBadger Fri 28-Mar-14 09:12:50

i don't know merry. they have massively advanced satellite and radar technology in that part of the world.

DowntonTrout Fri 28-Mar-14 09:15:05

So, going faster uses more fuel? Is that what this means? Ok.

member Fri 28-Mar-14 09:15:36

The inmersat modelling was done assuming two different speeds; 400 knots & 450 knots.

I'm slightly with Honeybadger on this. Even though I know analysis takes time,speed = distance/time (as far as I can recall) so that parameter should have been deduced early on. It smacks of someone holding back on info but being forced to reveal it because of the of the Inmersat calculations being based on a false premise.

Or, there is some new info been given to the investigative team like further satellite or radar data. Or possibly the forensics on the Captain's flight simulator which the FBI were quoted as saying a couple of days ago would be ready in a day or two.

I've been trying to stay factual with what we know with the links etc but the reason given for altering the search area does seem a comparatively easy thing to deduce.

PopOfTheTops Fri 28-Mar-14 09:15:57

Thank you for the link to that facebook analysis.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 09:20:29

Ok, the radar, I assume, refers to the speed it was going it when it was heading west.

It later turned again to reach the Inmarsat arc and Doppler analysis (plus lack of radar detection) indicated it turned south, sea bound, not north, land bound.

If they've used radar to deduce the speed, they've either assumed something about how the westerly speed related to the southerly speed, or they've picked up a further radar point from some country or another that gives them more information (for example, any radar point south of the last westerly point would give an idea of southerly speed)

Downton, the partial handshake was never explained but IIRC it was only a few minutes after the full handshake so may not have been able to be fully analysed.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 09:24:23

That wasn't clear.

The speed between the two published radar points is deductible if you assume a straight line flight.

If in fact the plane went eg south west then north west between those points, it would have been flying faster.

We don't know when after the last published radar point it turned south-easterly. Everything I've seen assumes straight lines between the known points.

noddyholder Fri 28-Mar-14 09:30:06

I thought the initial data was accurate withing 170km

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 09:31:28

160km = 100 miles. So about right.

Accurate only to the left and right of the arc, not along it.

allisgood1 Fri 28-Mar-14 09:39:36

Where's Goldie???

Burmahere Fri 28-Mar-14 10:13:26

Not been back since she went off for her 2 days. Come back Goldie please.

Can't believe the press conference this morning, the acting transport minister looked utterly depressed. This must be so unbelievably frustrating for everyone and as for the families.....

MerryMarigold Fri 28-Mar-14 10:30:42

Burma, it sounds like from loopy's post that everyone in Malaysia is utterly depressed and tied in knots over this (including the government). I do feel for them...but maybe it is time for a change of government.

Honey, I don't know why the US is keeping so quiet, unless they have supplied date on the quiet, but we haven't heard about it, and everything we have heard leads to the search areas they have been searching. I understand they have other priorities, but in terms of PR, being more involved/ more open in all this, should be a good thing? Did they send a search plane?

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 10:36:26

They are sending a black box pinger.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 10:39:06

"The potential flight path could be the subject of further refinement as investigations continued, Amsa said, adding that satellites would now focus on the new area.

Amsa said nine military aircraft would be scouring the area on Friday, with a civilian aircraft acting as a communications relay.

Five ships from China and one from Australia were also relocating to that area. One Chinese patrol ship was already at the scene, Amsa said."

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 10:40:21

I think info is coming out either via Malaysia or via Australia, which makes sense, why should the Americans "say" anything?

member Fri 28-Mar-14 10:42:09

AMSA tweeting one of the search planes have spotted something in the search area & is on it's way back to base. It will have imagery to be examined & there will need to be confirmation by ship which will not happen until tomorrow.

Burmahere Fri 28-Mar-14 10:43:00

I thought the same re US, not really anything to do with them so I guess they are keeping out of it (publicly, maybe they are offering support behind the scenes).

As it should be really.

GarlicMarchHare Fri 28-Mar-14 10:43:44

The team looking into the flight simulator said they expected to finish today, didn't they? Wonder whether there was anything useful to be found.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 10:44:50

WeLL the FBI are analysing the simulator and they are lending a pinger. Other people's aircraft are closer and just as good so why should they send a plane unless they have a specific one nearby.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 10:55:07

The Facebook statement says that representatives on the international working group include, from th US, the FAA, the NTSB and Boeing.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 10:58:24
MerryMarigold Fri 28-Mar-14 11:06:02

ok, ok. I'm sure the US are doing stuff. Just that relative to their size, influence, technology. And no, they don't need to 'say' anything themselves. INMARSAT's analysis was not released by the UK but was clearly from here and accredited. I haven't heard much of 'The US radar spotted this, or US satellite spotted that...', that's all. Whether the info is released by someone else or not. I am surprised given their presence that they have not contributed a lot more information. They are giving very little away, some could say obstructing.

And yes, they do have a lot to do with this, simply because they have large military presences in many of the areas the plane was in/ supposedly in plus rafts of satellites.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 11:25:55

Inmarsat is a commercial satellite. I'm sure any military data is being shared only with a limited group and is being anonymised etc.

To fashion my own tin hat for a minute, if I thought a good way to get info on radar and satellite coverage made public, I might hijack a plane too.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 11:29:29

Inmarsat is a commercial satellite. I'm sure any military data is being shared only with a limited group and is being anonymised etc.

To fashion my own tin hat for a minute, if I thought a good way to get info on radar and satellite coverage made public, I might hijack a plane too.

fflonkl Fri 28-Mar-14 12:31:01

Merry one of the Malaysian opposition MPs today claimed the airforce and navy would "do better" if we were under opposition rule. He did not offer any reason why this was the case and has had to swiftly retract his statement.

Malaysia is not helped by having some pretty inept ministers and the opposition is not hugely better. However that said I really do think the government is doing its best.

fflonkl Fri 28-Mar-14 12:35:53

Arrgghhh phone had mind of its own!!

This is a huge tragedy for Malaysia, we've never had anything even near this scale happen before yet I think we're bearing up with far greater dignity than China.

Also as has been pointed out the Americans are helping but all findings are being announced - rightly, I think - by Malaysia.

JKSLtd Fri 28-Mar-14 13:06:54

Whilst I don't buy into the conspiracy theories honest I do wonder about the constant dribble of info, that's then retracted/ruled out/denied.

It must be so difficult (understatement!) being a relative of those on board. No one would ever have believed before this, that a big passenger plane could just go missing for so long.

Also, thinking about the crew - must be so difficult for the others who work for MAS - they must have flown with them in the past as I think crew get moved around? or had flights booked in with those missing that have had to be filled in by others. Not sure how big an airline it is?

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 13:08:40

JKS, has there been info officially released by the Malaysians that has then been retracted?

JKSLtd Fri 28-Mar-14 13:13:45

Well I meant more things that were leaked, denied by the Malaysians at press conferences, so ruled out by the press, then confirmed later on.

Just a sense of yo-yoing that I've got and I'm an unrelated just interested person on the other side of the world. If I've got that sense, that what must those missing relatives be feeling? Such a rollercoaster.

And I, like others, find it hard to believe they're really gone until the wreckage is found (not sure I believe anything will have been planted) - so how must the relatives feel? You'd want to be hope against all scientific evidence that your loved one is still alive, somehow, somewhere. Any piece of info that supports that, you'd jump on. They when it's denied or ruled out, it's another dip.

CharlieSierra Fri 28-Mar-14 13:14:25

Whilst I don't buy into the conspiracy theories honest I do wonder about the constant dribble of info, that's then retracted/ruled out/denied

Trouble is, this is part of openly sharing available information isn't it - the alternative makes them look like they're holding things back. It really is an incredibly difficult situation to manage. I'm trying to quell any critical thoughts and believe everyone is doing their best in absolutely unprecedented circumstances.

AchyFox Fri 28-Mar-14 13:22:29

1 o'clock news on R4 had an Australian oceanographer saying that based on ocean currents the new search area is not related to the debris found in the old search area.

Basically either the new or the old search area is correct, but they can't both contain debris of MH370.

Which begs the question, what reliance can be placed on any of the sightings so far (including the new search area), given that not a single piece has been retrieved ?

YNK Fri 28-Mar-14 13:26:46

Tin hatter here!

I keep thinking about who would profit from this event!
Rothschild is now the sole heir to a valuable patent if the other 4 patent holders on the plane have sadly died.
Do we know of anyone else who would benefit?

I am also very suspicious of the secrecy over the cargo.

JKSLtd Fri 28-Mar-14 13:27:32

I'm trying to quell any critical thoughts and believe everyone is doing their best in absolutely unprecedented circumstances.

Me too.

MerryMarigold Fri 28-Mar-14 13:28:33

I'm sure any military data is being shared only with a limited group and is being anonymised etc...if I thought a good way to get info on radar and satellite coverage made public, I might hijack a plane too.

I don't think it would give a whole lot away to say, "a satellite spotted this..." or "radar picked up that...", particularly in areas where it is well known they have a presence. No need for fine details. What is weirder is not saying anything/ spotting anything.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 13:35:36

"Which begs the question, what reliance can be placed on any of the sightings so far (including the new search area), given that not a single piece has been retrieved ?"

None. Nothing that had been sighted from satellites or a plane was ever confirmed as being part of the lost plane.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 13:37:02

"What is weirder is not saying anything/ spotting anything."

Why? The only people who need to know are those running the search to give them the best chance to look in the right areas. The rest of us aren't going to be jumping into our canoes.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 13:38:51

"Well I meant more things that were leaked, denied by the Malaysians at press conferences, so ruled out by the press, then confirmed later on."

I'm not sure what in particular you have in mind but if the press say something that hasn't been confirmed, what are the Malaysians supposed to do?

Manchesterhistorygirl Fri 28-Mar-14 13:41:57

Reports of five aircraft sighting many bits of multicoloured items floating in the sea.

I hope this is it.

MerryMarigold Fri 28-Mar-14 13:47:45

Well, since the search has so far entirely been based on INMARSAT findings and satellite pictures (Chinese satellite and not sure where other was from), I think we can assume they haven't shared a lot of info.

TheHoneyBadger Fri 28-Mar-14 14:00:09

i thought this new search area was more like 600miles to the north east from what i read.

JKSLtd Fri 28-Mar-14 14:16:33

Doctrine - others with better memories than mine will probably correct me but when it first disappeared and they were still searching near Malaysia, it was leaked that it may have turned off course, the next press conf that was denied, then it was confirmed later on.
Then the longer flying time post last contact was leaked, denied, then confirmed.

Not - we are unaware of that information at this time, or
that is unconfirmed so we will not be commenting
but actually denied.

Not sure why you're picking my comments apart so much?

JKSLtd Fri 28-Mar-14 14:18:21

Re timings - time zones/and timings of flights - are we likely to hear confirmation today (UK time)?
Wasn't the nearest ship only getting to the new area on Saturday (their time I suppose)?

TheHoneyBadger Fri 28-Mar-14 14:20:09

we have heard 'thai radar saw x', 'a french satellite has seen y', a chinese satellite has seen z actually. so i don't get how ridiculous it is deemed to wonder why we haven't heard of radar or satellite from U.S given they have a massive radar and satellite presence including under water systems of radar supposedly that are crazily powerful.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 14:32:00

I'm not, particularly, JKS- I've commented on various posters' comments.

I agree that "we don't know that yet" might have been better than denial.

helzapoppin2 Fri 28-Mar-14 15:06:33

I think the US are involved because three US citizens are among the missing, and there will be a big move to "bring them home". They would, of course, use their technology, but in recent times have kept a low profile because of not wanting to be seen as the world's police.

LouSend Fri 28-Mar-14 16:41:16

Wrt the ping: If each ping, or full handshake, is the satellite asking 'are you here?' and the plane replying 'yes I'm here' then are we assuming that the half handshake issued not long after the full handshake was the plane saying 'my pinger is no longer active. I'm now not here'?

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 16:57:22

I don't think it's been clarified what the partial handshake was and why it happened so soon after the other one. It has been stated that the one an hour later didn't complete, implying the plane didn't have engines on by then.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 18:02:03

"Five planes have spotted "objects" in the new area of the Indian Ocean being searched for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, Australian officials say."

The Chinese ship is due to track these down on Saturday - fingers crossed.

JKSLtd Fri 28-Mar-14 18:09:40

Sorry Doctrine - feeling over sensitive I think, tough week , ignore me!

Am impatiently mentally pushing that boat on!

GarlicMarchHare Fri 28-Mar-14 18:21:23

Yes, Lou. I don't know whether this particular antenna does it, but it is normal for automated systems to send out a final squawk of some description when they unexpectedly go offline.

I'm still mystified by the news that the US has this amazing visual surveillance technology over the very area the plane went missing, yet doesn't seem to have got any pictures of it doing whatever it did. Possible explanations: They do not have this technology (but they do, because they brag about it when it finds a hostile nation lying about its available forces); they do but it doesn't work properly; it can't see a white plane over a dark ocean on a moonless night (unlikely); they have pictures of the plane but won't share them.

Plus, I cannot believe the plane evaded all radar tracking near land in that area. The hypothetical low-flying to avoid Butterworth radar (which did pick it up at some point) looks possible on a map, but the region is several kinds of military tinder-box. It's probably true that Malaysia & Thailand have rusty old systems, which would suggest other countries with bigger budgets would be running their own cover as well.

We're told this info doesn't exist. Just as confused and hmm as ever!
<wonders if it's too late to adopt a career in piracy>

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 18:26:05

I lost the link to the US satellite coverage description, would be grateful if someone could repost?

Are those satellites looking specifically at trouble spots, (which the Malaysian borders aren't at present)?

GarlicMarchHare Fri 28-Mar-14 18:30:39

It was this, Doctrine. Has a diagram of where McInerney says the satellites orbit. The satellites exist; I can't verify the orbits.

GarlicMarchHare Fri 28-Mar-14 18:31:16

Oooh, look, Mumsnet added a still! [impressed] grin

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 18:35:40

Thanks!

NumanoidNancy Fri 28-Mar-14 19:10:29

OK I'm completely lost now. I need some sort of recap of knowns and unknowns and possibilities!

What was the handshake thing again?!

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 19:15:24

Handshake - the Inmarsat satellite and the plane exchanging a ping!

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 19:29:05

Have watched it now - thank you. 15 minutes seems way too fast for an orbit but perhaps he meant there are several in similar orbits so a string of them can see a given point every 15 mins.

It didn't say how wide a field each could cover with their one inch resolution lenses - a 10 mile strip under the orbit, a 1 mile strip etc etc. So it's hard to say if the LEOs definitely had coverage of the place where the military radar last saw the plane in the relevant window.

GarlicMarchHare Fri 28-Mar-14 19:35:30

smile Doctrine.

Whether you think of trouble spots depends heavily on how you look at the map.

map

satellite arc

GarlicMarchHare Fri 28-Mar-14 19:36:24

map & satellite arc

GarlicMarchHare Fri 28-Mar-14 19:38:24

I'm really not insisting it's in Somalia, Pakistan, Diego Garcia, PNG, or anywhere in particular. Just fretting over how odd the story is ... still feels like we're getting a highly edited version confused

NumanoidNancy Fri 28-Mar-14 20:05:46

Thanks Doctrine, thats what I thought it was originally and then for some reason got it confused with the Boeing engine data packages thing.

Is this Lt.Gen.McInerny legitimate then? Its definitely interesting what he is saying but given that he is on Fox he is coming across awfully like someone the US would wheel out to give tin foil hat disinformation! It didn't help that I was texting my boyfriend about him a minute ago and all our texts to eachother got scrambled up and made no sense when they arrived, it was a bit spooky (in the 'Spooks' sense of the word!).

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 20:31:00

Fox programmes get filed in the same part of my brain as Sun journalism... grin

GarlicMarchHare Fri 28-Mar-14 20:33:33

Lol @ McInereney scrambling your texts! (Or maybe eek?) Yep, he's a retired US Air Force general. He's an outspoken maverick, with severe paranoia about the Taliban (not unreasonably, I guess.) As I was linking to some Fox News pages about his statements the other day, the pages were withdrawn. Was a bit weird to see that happen in front of me!

Astrophysics digression:
Whoo-hoo, look, this is how you get a satellite to spend a long time over a particular part of the Earth! Highly elliptical orbit smile You'd only need two to cover one 'side' of the planet. Using the highly scientific method of turning the Earth on Google, I reckoned a satellite doing a long ellipse over our region of interest would be doing its speedy whizz over the Atlantic, which is less interesting from the military point of view. Clever, huh?!

NumanoidNancy Fri 28-Mar-14 20:45:48

Yes same here Doctrine, thats why I am a bit confused that his theories have some traction!

NumanoidNancy Fri 28-Mar-14 20:51:08

As for satellites and geostationary orbits all I can say is ((((Arthur C Clarke)))) . I'm still waiting on his cool 'space elevator' idea that connects earth to a satellite and was meant to be the next bit that happened after the satellites went up...

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 21:14:08

I read that link Garlic and while I can see how it works for GPS (which basically means that your position is triangulated off three satellites) I still don't see how much of the earth can be photographed at high res (though I guess that's classified!)

GarlicMarchHare Fri 28-Mar-14 21:23:01

In 2012, the US National Reconnaissance Office gave two space telescopes to NASA, as it had already developed better ones for its satellites. The donated telescopes are miles better than Hubble! <wants to be a space scientist> <or a pirate>

Nancy, there are half a dozen space elevator programmes on the go at the moment!

NumanoidNancy Fri 28-Mar-14 21:41:57

Are there really Garlic? As in ones that actually might function how he predicted? How epically brilliant.

And yet we can't find a missing plane. Does. Not. Compute.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 21:45:55

Yeah, but unlike a plane, a geostationary satellite is, um, well... geostationary grin

Lambstales Fri 28-Mar-14 21:47:03

Oh dear, did I tell you the 15 mins before the US grin

LynetteScavo Fri 28-Mar-14 21:50:16

As much as I think finding debris is a good thing for the relatives of those on board, and will possibly bring closure on the situation for them, I can't quite bring myself to believe the debris has been floating for three weeks unnoticed.

This whole affair is either a massive bungle by all involved, or a huge cover up. (For what, I don't know).

Yes, yes, I know oceans are huge, but this is not 1952.

NumanoidNancy Fri 28-Mar-14 21:53:00

Heh Doctrine, its that they are solving all the technical and weather related issues of the space elevator I am busy being amazed about. I just read that there has been an actual Space Elevator Conference! I can't tell you how happy that makes me! Been waiting for it to be built since I first read about it at 13.

Sorry, massive thread derailment though.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 21:53:44

Lynette, on a day to day basis, no one really has any reason to focus on satellite images from that location and recently focus has been on a different area of the sea. The debris spotted previously, if unrelated, just goes to show there's lots of crap floating about in the ocean, even the remote ocean.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 21:54:54

<organises MN trip to Space Elevator conference>

NumanoidNancy Fri 28-Mar-14 21:57:28

Lynette the guy on the radio this evening was saying the search area was the size of the UK so finding a few plane seat cushions (apparently they float well) and assorted bits of metal is nigh on impossible which we can all understand. I guess the thing we all keep thinking is however, how the hell is it possible that the position of the plane is so bloody unknown that we are left with such a massive search area in the first place. It just seems insane.

LynetteScavo Fri 28-Mar-14 22:00:58

Yes, there is a lot of crap floating in the ocean. sad

I'm still not buying the "we don't know where is" line. They know more that they are letting on. Whether we need to know or not is another matter. But the relatives of those on board deserve to know if their loved ones are alive or dead, and need concrete evidence if there is no hope of any survivors. A few pieces of debris are not going to be hard enough evidence for many. There are a lot of lessons to be learned from this.

GarlicMarchHare Fri 28-Mar-14 22:00:59

Nah, Doctrine, the elliptical satellites aren't geostationary. They just go a lot further out on one 'side' than the other - hence, it takes them longer to get from pole to pole on that side, coz it's further innit. That gives them longer to take lots of brilliant photos of terrorists sunbathing in their lunch breaks. Then they whizz round the boring side, close in, dead quick. If you fire two off at about an hour apart, they will both be on the long ellipse nearly all the time and one will still be out there while the other shoots round the Atlantic side smile

I'm watching East Enders to try and get my mind off this. Unfortunately, Dot being conned by a nice young man again is a bit less fascinating than the miracles of space technology and Where Are The Pictures?!

backinthebox Fri 28-Mar-14 22:08:10

It does seem like I am being a bit of a spoilsport here, and could be proved wrong, I don't actually think anyone will ever know what happened on this flight. I would be surprised if they managed to find much of the aircraft, if any. And even if they do, if it managed to fly for 7 hours before crashing the most useful part of the information in this case - why it turned off its course - would be lost anyway. The cockpit voice recorder records on a continuous loop, overwriting earlier recordings. Normally after a crash the cvr stops recording at that point, and it is possible to retrieve the info. Generally they record for 2 hrs.

There are lots of things that could have happened, but the more far-fetched the theory, the less likely it is to have happened. Wondering who is likely to profit, about the secret cargo, about political fallout - it's all a bit ridiculous. I've flown with a pilot who was on board a very famous flight, he ended up in a very precarious situation and was lucky to emerge from it. There were and still are a lot of conspiracy theories surrounding what happened on that flight. I asked him about it once. He was happy to tell me what happened to me, and was quick to put down any conspiracy theories. There was no ulterior motive, they were just in the wrong place at the wrong time. I'm not going to give away which flight I am referring to, so as not to out me or my colleague.

And if anyone is doubting my credentials....

NumanoidNancy Fri 28-Mar-14 22:10:58

Ha love the pic!

Someone will come on and say you are just the cleaner though, you know that don't you!

PansBigChainring Fri 28-Mar-14 22:12:46

I don't think anything you said there supports or denies your 'credentials' tbh, so I really wouldn't bother trying to establish them, on a public forum.

Lambstales Fri 28-Mar-14 22:14:06

backinthebox are you allowed to talk on here?

GarlicMarchHare Fri 28-Mar-14 22:25:48

I'm a space elevator engineer. Doctrine & Nancy are my test pilots.

Don't tell them, I'm about to quit this job for life as a Somalian pirate & drugs transport vehicle developer. I was offered the post by an intriguing fellow in dreadlocks, eyeliner and a frilly shirt. It's hot out there.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 22:32:15

Don't start talking about Jonny depp or we will get detailed again!

Backinthebox, that's very sad to think that the relatives may never know but hopefully some physical part of the plane will be recovered to give a little more certainty.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 22:38:43

"Nah, Doctrine, the elliptical satellites aren't geostationary. "

Yeah, I know - the geostationary are needed for our space elevator though, right?

Telegraph says Americans have sent two fixed wing aircraft for the search.

GarlicMarchHare Fri 28-Mar-14 22:41:26

Cool. Let's hope they find enough of something to allow the relatives their grief.

BoiledPiss Fri 28-Mar-14 22:46:52

Wow, late to this thread, i missed it being created and i have been wondering why nothing was happening on the last one! blush

A busy few days at work have meant i missed a big chunk, although i see there isnt much more news, what about these latest sightings, have they actually recovered anything?

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 28-Mar-14 22:52:33

Not recovered but several planes have seen 11 objects and the chinese ship should be there on saturday (which it already is down there, I think??)

This is a good graphic about the 'needle in a haystack' thing but I'm not sure when it was created i.e. when the search area was still both corridors, just the Southern corridor etc

pbs.twimg.com/media/BjAAk3ECIAA1BFB.jpg:medium

PansBigChainring Fri 28-Mar-14 22:53:41

No nothing recovered, and unless something happens v soon I'm with our captain pilot and suspecting the relatives will never know anything for sure.

Burmahere Sat 29-Mar-14 00:49:50

Love the picture backinthebox! grin

TheHoneyBadger Sat 29-Mar-14 06:15:53

i've just checked again and it's reported as an over 600mile shift in search area - just clarifying as someone on here said it was only 60miles i believe yesterday.

that sounds like rather a large difference to the inmarsat analysis.

i can well understand that the relatives must feel incredulous of the fact that the analysis that the announcement that the passengers must be dead with such assertion was based on an analysis that only a couple of days later appears wrong.

noddyholder Sat 29-Mar-14 08:55:50

Malaysian Officials now saying they are hoping there are survivors I think this is a mess and so cruel. No wonder people are suspicious.

4forkssake Sat 29-Mar-14 09:06:48

Good grief, how can they now be saying they are hoping against hope to find survivors. 3 days ago it was a forgone conclusion they had all perished & now another area & this news. They are stark raving bonkers! Feel head will be rolling soon in the Malaysian government sadconfused

KareninsGirl Sat 29-Mar-14 09:10:26

I feel so sorry for the relatives of the crew and passengers. This must be absolute torture for them.

And yes, it's hardly surprising people are suspicious about what really has happened to the plane.

allisgood1 Sat 29-Mar-14 09:23:15

I give up. We are all bring sent on a wild goose chase. They will never find that plane. And we will never know what happened.

LoopyDoopyDoo Sat 29-Mar-14 09:25:59

Do you have a link please?

TheHoneyBadger Sat 29-Mar-14 09:27:37

i think it is an absolute wild goose chase to the point that it feels deliberate - i do feel this has been an ongoing process of disinformation and distraction. i do not know why or who is responsible or what is being hidden but it is utterly clear to me, and to the relatives it seems, that something is going on.

Purpleknickers Sat 29-Mar-14 09:43:02

Goodness this is getting more bizarre by the day. Nobody seems to have a clue where to look and what happened, for the families it must be absolute torture.
I just hope there is closure soon for them sad

funnyperson Sat 29-Mar-14 09:50:51

honey that is how I feel. Someone alive knows what happened to that plane and those passengers and isn't telling the public.

JKSLtd Sat 29-Mar-14 09:50:57

First plane back didn't see anything - bbc.

bishbashboosh Sat 29-Mar-14 09:55:00

I agree it all seems bizarre with the media reporting objects being seen, again and again!!! All red herrings to keep the hungry media and public happy me thinks.

4forkssake Sat 29-Mar-14 10:01:44

Loopy, did you want the link about the Malaysian transport minister? If so, it's included in the article below & he was being interviewed on tv so there'll be a video link somewhere too. Apologies if this isn't the link you were after!

news.sky.com/story/1233821/missing-plane-hunt-three-more-objects-spotted

LoopyDoopyDoo Sat 29-Mar-14 10:12:01

Yes, thank you

4forkssake Sat 29-Mar-14 10:13:21

Welcome!

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sat 29-Mar-14 11:00:08

"that sounds like rather a large difference to the inmarsat analysis."

As I understand it, all that's been published about Inmarsat is arc position and direction. Anywhere south of the last known radar position and on the arc for the last handshake, (NOT the time the plane's engines went off, which might be up to an hour later) is still consistent, I believe. Also, there will have been drift from wherever the plane did come down, if at sea.

helzapoppin2 Sat 29-Mar-14 11:02:22

My heart sank at hearing what the Malaysian transport minister said, as well. It sounded very irresponsible after the Prime Ministers statement which did, at least, sound forceful and final.

AnyaKnowIt Sat 29-Mar-14 11:06:18

''Malaysian Officials now saying they are hoping there are survivors I think this is a mess and so cruel. No wonder people are suspicious.''

Sky news have just shown that clip. How on earth after 3 weeks can he say that!

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sat 29-Mar-14 11:09:03

"No matter how remote the search, I am always hoping against hope that we will find survivors," Mr Hishammuddin told the latest news conference following a meeting with the families on Saturday.

- that doesn't sound hugely irresponsible but I didn't watch the link.

However Mr Hishimmuddin said investigators who had looked at the equipment had turned up no new information.

"There is nothing sinister from the simulators but of course that will have to be confirmed by the chief of police,'' he said.

- regarding the simulators.

Both from the BBC.

CharlieSierra Sat 29-Mar-14 11:17:07

I don't see how expressing 'hope against hope' that survivors may be found is cruel or irresponsible. Surely we all hold that feeling in our hearts, no matter how unlikely we know it to be?

naturallysparkling Sat 29-Mar-14 11:40:36

I can't believe he said that… he has blown whatever credibility the Malaysians had left..

AnyaKnowIt Sat 29-Mar-14 11:41:33

D

AnyaKnowIt Sat 29-Mar-14 11:43:05

Don't you think its a shitty thing do say after the prime minister said a few days ago that their was no chance of suvivours?

TheHoneyBadger Sat 29-Mar-14 11:46:10

i'm doing a bit of reading about the malaysian prime minister - he's actually been quite vocally critical of the balance of world power it seems and of the campaigns against iraq amongst other things. not a popular person to the big guns i shouldn't think.

4forkssake Sat 29-Mar-14 11:50:30

To me it seems a ridiculous statement after what the PM said during the week. His statement implied there was no hope & now this. If the transport ministers statement had been last week & the PM's this week that'd have been logical, but this?! hmm

GarlicMarchHare Sat 29-Mar-14 11:52:39

I'm no big fan of Malaysian governance, but I feel sorry for them in this situation. They're having to channel information - and quite possibly misinformation - from a raft of international sources, many of which have their own agendas to pursue and rivalries amongst them. Having quickly revealed all their own data, they're saddled with the huge cost of upgrading their defence systems once this is over. I'd guess their insurance is refusing to pay out with no concrete claim, meaning they face the possibility of having to fund vast law suits.

'Shooting the messenger' is highly understandable, but I think that's what's going on here.

Eyelet Sat 29-Mar-14 11:59:33

This gets weirder and weirder (I was on the last thread but have a shiny new name)

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sat 29-Mar-14 12:03:51

I don't think it was the most sensible thing to say but it was a very human thing to say. I don't think there are any survivors but I am hoping against hope there might be too.

GarlicMarchHare Sat 29-Mar-14 12:58:01

From Wall Street Journal, 20th March:

March 8th
Within hours of Flight 370's disappearance on March 8, Inmarsat started searching for clues. What little data it had on the short flight before it disappeared was provided to SITA, a Swiss aviation IT company, on the same day, Inmarsat said.

March 9th
Late that weekend, Inmarsat's team delved into its databases to retrieve periodic "pings," akin to digital handshakes between the plane, a satellite and a ground station.

March 10th
Inmarsat Senior Vice President Chris McLaughlin said that on Monday, March 10, it began extrapolating the location of the jetliner using the aircraft's changing angle and distance to the satellite.

March 11th
Mr. McLaughlin said the data was shared the following day (11th) with SITA, which in turn shared it with Malaysian officials.

March 12th
The information was relayed to Malaysian officials by Wednesday, March 12. (March 13th Malaysian time.)
Concerned the data weren't being acted upon quickly enough to help overhaul the search, Inmarsat turned on Wednesday 12th to U.K. security authorities to more quickly disseminate the data.
Malaysia Airlines, in turn, instructed SITA to use the U.K. Air Accidents Investigation Branch as the primary conduit for Inmarsat's data.

March 13th
... ... ...

March 14th
Inmarsat issued the following statement: "Routine, automated signals were registered on the Inmarsat network from Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 during its flight from Kuala Lumpur. This information was provided to our partner SITA, which in turn has shared it with Malaysia Airlines. For further information, please contact Malaysia Airlines."

March 15th
Malaysia's government, concerned about corroborating the data and dealing with internal disagreements about how much information to release, didn't publicly acknowledge Inmarsat's information until March 15.

Comments

It wasn't clear how U.S. officials obtained the initial Inmarsat data, which they analyzed and helped translate into maps. Regardless, people briefed on the probe agree it took longer than expected for the information to spread from engineers and technical experts to policy makers and then back down to officials directing specific elements of the searches.

The disclosures about how the information made its way into the investigation underline how international efforts to find the plane have been repeatedly marred by distrust among the countries involved, confusion in many of Malaysia's public statements, and criticism from many countries that has led some to suspend or change their search efforts in frustration.

..................................................

I don't see this as Malaysia impeding useful implementation of the data.
It seems something happened from when Inmarsat asked UK security to help out on the 12th, which seemingly resulted in American agencies doing further analysis on it with the Brits. Those results were not ready to be made public until the 15th. It's a mess, sure, but resulting from so many agencies being involved rather than Malaysian skullduggery.

GarlicMarchHare Sat 29-Mar-14 12:58:39

I don't think it was the most sensible thing to say but it was a very human thing to say

YY, Doctrine.

MerryMarigold Sat 29-Mar-14 13:19:29

I don't think there are any survivors but I am hoping against hope there might be too.

Well, do you believe it crashed into the middle of the Indian Ocean or not? If you do, there is no hope, none at all, of survivors. If you think it's possible something else happened to it, then there is hope.

I think the difficulty comes as it has been set in stone that it crashed into a completely hostile ocean. This comment makes it seem as if other options are possibly. And since he is in a position of knowing information, it looks like he is in some reasonable doubt.

I think that saying that you hope against hope that someone is alive is a very human thing to say too. There are a lot of posters on this thread who are making wise and informed contributions but there is also hysteria and ignorance of facts. Yesterday someone accused the US governement of hindering the SAR effort with no actual proof whatsoever and today we are all apparently 'being led on a wild goose chase'. I wasn't aware that any of the contributors to this thread were physically involved in the SAR effort, but there you go. The search area is the size of Poland, it would be a miracle and as suspicious as hell if this had all been wrapped up in a matter of days.

I have been reluctant to mention it before, but someone close to me designed a component that was fitted on the aircraft. They obviously would prefer foul play as the thought that a failure of this part, or indeed any other, is awful to comtemplate. They are refraining from wild speculation and they know an awful lot more about the aircraft, airframe, call what you will, than I suspect many of the people posting here. I personally think the Aussies are doing a great job in horrendous conditions. No one has ever said that what the satellites spotted came from the plane, just that it was possible.

GarlicMarchHare Sat 29-Mar-14 13:31:27

Oh, another post implying nobody should discuss issues unless they have inside knowledge, miley? If I had rock-solid expert insight, I doubt I'd be speculating on here as I'd be speculating expertly with one of the investigation teams. I haven't - I'm discussing the matter on, you know, a discussion board.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sat 29-Mar-14 13:38:26

Yes I believe that it crashed into the Indian Ocean. Yes I believe there are no survivors.

I can construct a fantasy scenario where someone clinging to the wreckage got picked up by a pirate ship and so hasn't come to light yet - but I don't believe it. That, to me, is what hoping against hope would mean.

"And since he is in a position of knowing information, it looks like he is in some reasonable doubt"

I disagree that "hoping against hope" and "some reasonable doubt" mean the same - cf my example above.

I am not implying that at all Garlic, and I am not singling you out as you were not one of the people that I meant. Perhaps what I should have said was that some people need to calm the fuck down? Would that have been preferable? I was just pointing out that someone I know, who has every reason not to want it to be a failure isn't conjuring up wild conspiracy theories, despite having a good reason to.

You may not like what wannaBe said about some people using this tragedy as entertainment but a quick glance down some of these posts makes it clear she was bang-on.

GarlicMarchHare Sat 29-Mar-14 13:50:38

Ah, well, Miley, it's one of the things that makes Mumsnet so special ... no opinion unspoken wink

CharlieSierra Sat 29-Mar-14 13:59:56

I disagree that "hoping against hope" and "some reasonable doubt" mean the same

YY Doctrine it was a human thing to say. I didn't express myself so well.

Indeed it is! Apart from this person and one other who is doing pilot training at CTC, I have no connection with aviaton at all so I have no specialist knowledge whatsoever. I have worked with people at Inmarsat on unrelated projects and they were nice, honorable people so I get a bit arsey when their intentions are questioned. Lets hope this ship finds something, although it looks like tomorrow may be more likely according to some reports.

MerryMarigold Sat 29-Mar-14 14:14:51

I disagree that "hoping against hope" and "some reasonable doubt" mean the same - cf my example above.

I think in your position of course they are not the same thing. You are not the person in charge of the SAR operation. I think in his position, with his knowledge, they are the same thing.

noddyholder Sat 29-Mar-14 14:17:33

I think it is ok for him to feel that but to announce it a few days after the families have been told no survivors is insensitive and unnecessary.

CharlieSierra Sat 29-Mar-14 14:23:21

Did he announce it as such or simply express human emotion - empathy with the relatives. That's how I see it.

claig Sat 29-Mar-14 14:27:05

'but someone close to me designed a component that was fitted on the aircraft. They obviously would prefer foul play as the thought that a failure of this part, or indeed any other, is awful to comtemplate'

foul play has got nothing to do with failure of a part.
Of course people are speculating, and whether you worked at Inmarsat and know pilots or not, you have no more knowledge of what happened than anyone else.

GarlicMarchHare Sat 29-Mar-14 14:40:16

Claig, she was saying that foul play would at least mean her friend's creation wasn't the cause of so many deaths.

I know foul play has nothing to do with the failure of a part, that is not what I said at all. I also said I have no more knowledge than anyone else. I am however entitled to my opinion, just like you. There is speculating and then there is posting hysterical nonsense with zero to back it up. Realistically, why should we be told anything at the moment? Its not about us.

claig Sat 29-Mar-14 14:47:55

'Realistically, why should we be told anything at the moment? Its not about us.'

Because the whole word is watching and the Malaysian officials give public press conferences. Everyone is watching and everyone wants answers.

' There is speculating and then there is posting hysterical nonsense with zero to back it up.'

But relatives have been saying that information has been given without enough to back it up and many of them feel they are not being told the truth. Everyone is questioning what is being said.

claig Sat 29-Mar-14 14:49:40

'Claig, she was saying that foul play would at least mean her friend's creation wasn't the cause of so many deaths.'

Yes, but whether her friend is refraining from speculation about foul play or not, has nothing to do with whether relatives and other people are speculating about it.

claig Sat 29-Mar-14 14:51:49

I get the impression that mileysorearse believes there has been no foul play and that other people should stop questioning whether there has been. There are relatives speculating about it too. Should they not speculate?

GarlicMarchHare Sat 29-Mar-14 14:59:12

hmm keep poking, Claig. You're a bit late to this one, I guess you need to catch up on your bickering quotient.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sat 29-Mar-14 15:02:18

I don't get that impression at all claig. We've all chatted and speculated to a greater or lesser extent across five threads.

Mind, those were in Chat so not in your usual search area...

claig Sat 29-Mar-14 15:03:41

I am late because I don't know what is going on and have not therefore contributed, but I don't like seeing people trying to stop people speculating by saying "Perhaps what I should have said was that some people need to calm the fuck down?"

claig Sat 29-Mar-14 15:05:19

OK, if I am wrong, I apologise. i have only read the last few posts and that is teh impression I got from what mileysorearse was posting.

The relatives are perfectly entitled to speculate, it's their tragedy. The swivel-eyes ghouls, not so much. Some posters here that seem to be enjoying the drama a bit too much and that makes me uncomfortable.

I am sorry I mentioned my friend.

GarlicMarchHare Sat 29-Mar-14 15:08:24

Heh, nobody knows what's going on! That's the problem! Gracious reply, thanks.

noddyholder Sat 29-Mar-14 15:10:03

The debris found by China unrelated according to news

CharlieSierra Sat 29-Mar-14 15:18:21

Objects have retrieved but have not been confirmed to be related according to both BBC and Sky, no news that they are unrelated.

CharlieSierra Sat 29-Mar-14 15:19:40

Objects have been retrieved

AchyFox Sat 29-Mar-14 15:22:50

R4 was saying that they didn't look like they came from an aircraft CS.

AchyFox Sat 29-Mar-14 15:28:23

To my mind the longer no debris turns up, the more concern there is about the totality of the Inmarsat data.

Is it really incompatible with a Northern route ?

For anyone to make anything of this they still need the basic hourly arc data (not talking about Doppler), and they're just not releasing it.

GarlicMarchHare Sat 29-Mar-14 15:41:08

That is the big question, imo, Achy. I don't imagine I could make a whole lot of sense from the raw data stream ... but the teams say they extrapolated distances with great accuracy. They have times, so that should have given them estimated speeds. The line chart they published - to show how the southern arc was compatible with other findings, while the northern was not - had a large peak at the beginning, labelled 'possible turn'. Possible turn from which way to which? confused hmm

GarlicMarchHare Sat 29-Mar-14 15:51:22

Data, as released by Inmarsat & Malaysia.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sat 29-Mar-14 16:03:55

"the teams say they extrapolated distances with great accuracy."

Distance in one dimension only. Back to the ripples I. The pond -if I drop a stone in the centre and I know that an object was on the 10m out ripple at midday and on the 20m out ripple at 12.05, I don't know if it went "the shortest distance" between the two ripples ie perpendicular to the ripples, or a much longer distance, necessitating a greater speed, by heading off almost parallel to the ripple and at only a slight angle.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sat 29-Mar-14 16:12:17

(The ripples are frozen in time, BTW)

GarlicMarchHare Sat 29-Mar-14 16:23:29

Fair point! All the other data, including the 'burst frequency offset' doppler readings, have been made upon assumptions about speed though ... As they based the model curve on readings from known flights, they must think they know what speed MH370 was doing between pings.

I also don't understand what the 'possible turn' implies, or whether there's significance in the projected routes crossing over at something past ten. Can any mathematicians here assist this puzzled poster??

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sat 29-Mar-14 16:31:56

"Fair point! All the other data, including the 'burst frequency offset' doppler readings, have been made upon assumptions about speed though ... As they based the model curve on readings from known flights, they must think they know what speed MH370 was doing between pings."

It's more direction than speed though from the Doppler. There will be a frequency shift related to whether the aircraft is travelling one way or the other along the arc (and bear in mind it might be travelling along the arc, at an angle to the arc etc). The size of the frequency shift will depend on speed along the arc but this will be more difficult to determine. Bear in mind that it took two weeks to even extract the directional data as the data collection isn't designed to do that.

Again, if the plane was travelling 10 miles a minute south on the arc and 2 miles a minute west (a fairly shallow angle), I don't know if, even if the data was perfect, it would be possible to distinguish that from travelling 10 miles a minute south and 10 miles a minute west, which is obviously a 45 degree angle to the arc and gives a much greater absolute speed.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sat 29-Mar-14 16:33:20

The possible turn is the last military radar point, isn't it?

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sat 29-Mar-14 16:35:54

Think of your ear and sirens - if asked to distinguish between a police car coming towards you and one moving away, you'd be far more likely to get it right than if asked to distinguish between a police car doing 40 mph, 45 mph and 47 mph moving towards you.

GarlicMarchHare Sat 29-Mar-14 17:01:04

But if I had a benchmark - say all the previous police cars I'd heard went 40 mph - I know if the test car was going noticeably faster or slower, wouldn't I? (assuming I had great hearing, which I haven't) They plotted sufficient pings from known flights to provide this benchmark - the green line.

Because, if not, this data's pretty useless isn't it? confused confused

I do realise we're discussing minute variations in a 3-point signal that was never intended for this use. It is, however, what we're being asked to accept as the only reliable guide.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sat 29-Mar-14 17:08:50

My point is, just because they can detect the variation in north and south (which is an effective difference of 800-900 knots) doesn't mean they can detect the difference between 400 and 475 knots.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sat 29-Mar-14 17:10:07

I think the changed assumption about speed isn't solely based on Inmarsat data - !

GarlicMarchHare Sat 29-Mar-14 17:10:38

Think I may have to give up on this for now grin Waving goodbye to my fantasy career in space science, Doctrine, and thanking you for your patience!

AchyFox Sat 29-Mar-14 17:12:07

Garlic

Thanks for that graph, I'd just been searching for it.

There are several queries/concerns I have about it:

1. As you say the "turn"... what can physically account for this "high" data point ?

2. Where do the 3 "measured" data points at 18:25 to 18:29 come from ?

3. What is the explanation for the difference in predicted and measured for the known track up to 17:10 ?

4. Surely there are other Northern tracks that more closely match the data ?

5. And correspondingly there are other Southern tracks which match the data less well than the chosen Southern track ?

6. Why is there no data between 18:29 and 19:40 nad similarly between 22:40 and 00:11 ?

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sat 29-Mar-14 17:12:10

The theoretical southern line and the theoretical northern line are plotted against the actual data and there's close correlation with the southern line (can't see the colours on my phone, sorry!)

AchyFox Sat 29-Mar-14 17:27:25

Yes, but there are a range of Northern and Southern lines and speeds, leading to a range of burst frequency offsets at each timestamp, not shown or alluded to.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sat 29-Mar-14 17:30:19

Cross post garlic - see you around on the space elevator grin

FabBakerGirl Sat 29-Mar-14 17:36:22

I have just seen that an Malaysian official has told the relatives of the passengers that "miracles do happen." I really feel this is unkind. Building up hope where it appears there is none sad.

Burmahere Sat 29-Mar-14 18:13:17

Well I suppose strictly speaking they do i.e. that Mexican guy who was afloat for over a year?

I don't believe this to be the case here though unfortunately.

TheHoneyBadger Sat 29-Mar-14 19:10:01

the cruelest thing seems to be saying we have evidence but it's sealed. that is such a blow to the relatives i should imagine.

anyway the whole world seems crazy at the minute between this, the troops descending on the ukraine, israel shutting all of it's embassies. should imagine there are a lot of fundamentalist end timer types utterly convinced this is it. hope it doesn't make me 'swivel eyed' to point that there is a lot going on in the world right now that is worrying hmm

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sat 29-Mar-14 21:34:57

"Chinese patrol ship Haixun 01 and Australia's HMAS Success "reported they have retrieved a number of objects from the ocean but so far no objects confirmed to be related to MH370 have been recovered", the Australian Maritime Safety Authority (Amsa) said late on Saturday."

sad

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sat 29-Mar-14 21:51:57

4. Surely there are other Northern tracks that more closely match the data ?

I think the assumption was a straight line, constant speed track (shown as 450 knots) at the angle that put the plane onto the last known arc.

5. And correspondingly there are other Southern tracks which match the data less well than the chosen Southern track ?

As above.

6. Why is there no data between 18:29 and 19:40 nad similarly between 22:40 and 00:11 ?

The handshake has been described as happening every hour, but maybe it's not a constant gap.

AchyFox Sun 30-Mar-14 02:19:27
GarlicMarchHare Sun 30-Mar-14 02:59:21

I've just had a look at his Facebook page - didn't before now, as it feels ghoulish. He was devastated by the election outcome last May. Seems to have posted very little since then. Obviously, I don't know whether recent posts have been removed but there are a few randomly typical posts of stuff he likes until January, when it stops.

One of the popular theories in Malaysia was that he attempted to hold the plane hostage for Anwar's release.

He seems to have been such a sweetie! Terribly sad, whatever the truth.

Good to see a retired British Air Marshal is using the opportunity to moan about our defence cuts hmm

Defence experts in the region claim that China’s vast flotilla of search vessels has a dual purpose – to send a warning signal to Japan and the Philippines, its maritime rivals in the Far East, with whom it is embroiled in a number of territorial disputes. - Daily Mail

It's a flippin' porridge, isn't it sad

LoopyDoopyDoo Sun 30-Mar-14 03:01:16

Garlic, a lot of people were gutted after the election. Some might say more than half of the electorate It's a big assumption to jump to that that had anything to do with this.

GarlicMarchHare Sun 30-Mar-14 03:06:15

Just coming back to this - and then going to bed, as I've lost my hour!

The handshake has been described as happening every hour, but maybe it's not a constant gap.

It's automated. Automated systems don't make ad-hoc alterations to their schedules.

GarlicMarchHare Sun 30-Mar-14 03:16:22

Yes, I know, Loopy. He was devastated though. I will be rocked by fear & disappointment if my country votes this bunch of incompetent loons (imo) back in next year, and I can imagine how much more urgent it could feel to someone who's campaigned so passionately in a country where the politics are even more openly corrupt.

I'm not drawing conclusions, just commenting.

GarlicMarchHare Sun 30-Mar-14 03:19:02

As an aside - jailed for sodomy! I know it's only 50 years since we did that, but how archaic does it look now?!

funnyperson Sun 30-Mar-14 03:30:10

It is odd about the automated 'ping' not appearing to be automated. So much just doesn't add up.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sun 30-Mar-14 10:32:53

"It's automated. Automated systems don't make ad-hoc alterations to their schedules"

Does the Ping originate from the satellite or the plane, I can't remember?

GarlicMarchHare Sun 30-Mar-14 12:00:29

Oh, that's a good question! None of the explanations or diagrams I've seen clarify this (bloody journos being even less technically literate than me!) Most of them even leave the ground station out of it. Hang on, I may have to waste half an hour of a sunny Sunday ...

GarlicMarchHare Sun 30-Mar-14 12:15:13

The pings are sent from a ground station to a satellite, then onto the plane, which automatically sends a ping back to the satellite and down to the ground station.
www.afp.com/en/news/satellite-pings-revealed-missing-malaysia-planes-path

Britain’s Air Accidents Investigation Branch (AAIB) says evidence of the final, partial signal between the MH370’s L-band terminal and Inmarsat’s gateway Earth station occurred March 8, when the plane vanished en route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.
www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/awx_03_25_2014_p0-675203.xml

If the ground station does not hear from an aircraft for an hour it will transmit a ‘log on/log off’ message – a ‘ping’ – and the aircraft automatically returns a short message indicating that it is still logged on, a process described as a ‘handshake’.
No response was received from the aircraft at 01:15 UTC, when the ground earth station sent the next log on/log off message, indicating that the aircraft was no longer logged on to the network, it added.
Therefore, at some time between 00:11 UTC and 01:15 UTC the aircraft was no longer able to communicate with the ground station – consistent with the maximum time the aircraft was able to fly.
www.inmarsat.com/news/malaysian-government-publishes-mh370-details-uk-aaib/

The ground station generates the auto-ping. It tells the satellite to contact the plane. Plane pings the satellite back directly, according to what I've been able to find.

This doesn't explain how the 'partial ping' is described as an incomplete contact between the ground station and the plane: none of these descriptions involve direct contact between the two confused It would be more logical, I'd have thought, for the plane to ping back the ground station, not the satellite itself ... but what do I know?!

GarlicMarchHare Sun 30-Mar-14 12:19:13

Oh, OK, Inmarsat again: When an aircraft is out of range of VHF/UHF radio, such as in oceanic airspace, Inmarsat enables air traffic controllers to stay in touch with the aircraft.
www.inmarsat.com/news/faq-inmarsat-aircraft-safety-communications-services/

It pings back to the satellite, because there's no guarantee it will be able to reach the ground station. Still doesn't explain this partial ping, though, or why the chart showed irregular pings.

GarlicMarchHare Sun 30-Mar-14 12:21:01

And the satellite is basically just a mirror. All the work is done by the ground station.

GarlicMarchHare Sun 30-Mar-14 12:26:00

I found this interesting - it's a diagram of Inmarsat's coverage. The one we're being told about is 64E, the purple one. I wonder whether they've checked the two overlapping ones for contacts with MH370? (They must have done, mustn't they?)
www.extremetech.com/extreme/179112-how-satellites-tracked-down-flight-mh370-and-why-we-still-cant-find-the-plane
Right, that's it for now!!

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sun 30-Mar-14 12:30:45

Thanks garlic.

I wonder if the ground station pings every hour but then the satellite "bundles up" instructions for various ground stations and planes and does them at its next window? That could lead to differing times between pings.

I assume the plane pings the satellite not the ground station because it might not have line of sight to the ground station (mountains/curvature of earth in the way)

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sun 30-Mar-14 12:38:44

That's a great article garlic.

So Inmarsat have four satellites, one over the Atlantic, one over South America, one over the pacific and the one in question over the Indian Ocean.

I suspect that the set up may be that each satellite only sends pings to planes nearest to it, or maybe to a set list of routes if a plane moves between one and the other along its route, otherwise each would be sending out and handling many times more pings.

TheHoneyBadger Sun 30-Mar-14 12:40:59

so it pings every hour 'unless' it's already heard from them? so it would ping an hour after last contact rather than at a fixed time each hour. does that suggest there was contact in those times with the longer than an hour gaps? what would count as contact?

GarlicMarchHare Sun 30-Mar-14 13:10:28

Yeah, that makes sense, Doctrine. The antenna on the plane is supposed to initiate the ping - at what intervals, I wonder? Then the ground station has a go if nothing came for an hour. It does explain the irregularity, but not what conditions might prevent an aircraft from sending out its pings ... slow failure of its electrical systems might do it, I guess. Or a bit of debris on that particular spot at that moment?

member Sun 30-Mar-14 13:43:04

I think that the aircraft didn't send out the pings routinely & had to be contacted by the satellite because it had no data to transmit after the ACARS system had been disabled?

The early pings on the graph are probably consistent with take-off when there was a lot of info to send via ACARS. The bit that's more difficult to explain is the frequency of the pings round about the time of the possible turn when ACARS was already off. Though maybe that is consistent with the sudden changes in direction/zig - zagging speculated on?

I think this is quite useful

GarlicMarchHare Sun 30-Mar-14 14:13:47

Good find, member, thanks!

allisgood1 Sun 30-Mar-14 17:56:04

Another day if no news hmm

funnyperson Sun 30-Mar-14 18:41:19

Yes, interesting data. I think it could be that the brave pilot tried to steer the plane into an uninhabited area to avoid a 9/11 scenario once the plane had been hijacked, and it could be that he deliberately set co ordinates that would fool a hijacker. Odd that no one texted or called relatives on a mobile phone.

difficultpickle Sun 30-Mar-14 18:43:27

Are they sure they are now looking in the correct place? It just seems strange to have recalculated everything to change the position of the search. I can't imagine what the relatives are going through and three weeks on I wonder whether they will ever find any wreckage sad

LouSend Sun 30-Mar-14 19:09:07

Has anyone linked to this from Jeff Wise?

Apologies if someone already has. It lays it out in simple terms (with a little bit of conjecture at the end).

LouSend Sun 30-Mar-14 19:15:37

Has anyone linked to this from Jeff Wise?

Apologies if someone already has. It lays it out in simple terms (with a little bit of conjecture at the end).

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sun 30-Mar-14 19:22:38

". Odd that no one texted or called relatives on a mobile phone."

No phone signals at altitude or over the sea.

GarlicMarchHare Sun 30-Mar-14 20:00:40

Really interesting comments on that blog, Lou.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sun 30-Mar-14 21:33:40

Very interesting thank you Lou.

funnyperson Sun 30-Mar-14 22:40:16

The ITV news today wasn't nice to watch. The comments that the 'whole of the Indian Ocean' was to be searched (with smirk on face) were horrid. It is now obvious that countries are taking advantage of this situation to discover the radar and military capabilities of nations in the region and to lay claim to previously ignored waters and that no one really gives a toss about the lives lost except the poor relatives and those who can make money out of it.
The plane wasnt always at high altitude and/or over sea it doesn't make sense that not one passenger appears to have texted or phoned a relative after take off even if to say hello we are in the air on the way home.

funnyperson Sun 30-Mar-14 22:42:09

The black box locator isnt even on a ship in the area so it does seem as though the US knows full well where this airplane went and doesn't think it is the Indian Ocean.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sun 30-Mar-14 22:49:15

"The plane wasnt always at high altitude and/or over sea it doesn't make sense that not one passenger appears to have texted or phoned a relative after take off even if to say hello we are in the air on the way home."

Err, you aren't allowed to make calls on your mobiles from a plane! Plus it's only the ascent part where you'd be in range anyway - at cruising altitude of 30,000 ft + there's no signal.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sun 30-Mar-14 22:50:06

The black box locator has been shipped/flown to the search area and I think starts working tomorrow?

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sun 30-Mar-14 22:51:45

"An Australian vessel carrying a US device known as a "towed pinger locator" is due to join the search in the coming days.

The device is designed to detect any ultrasonic signals - "pings" - from flight recorders and can operate up to a depth of about 6,000m.

But the search area is huge - covering some 319,000 sq km (123,000 sq miles) - and time is running short. The flight recorders' batteries are expected to run out in about a week's time."

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sun 30-Mar-14 23:20:11
funnyperson Mon 31-Mar-14 01:28:17

In an emergency you'd use the mobile- theres stuff in the papers about the plane changing altitude and also flying low to avoid radar -what about all the flight attendants? During 9/11 some of the passengers used their mobiles and the 4th plane therefore was diverted. We need to know. What if I'm ever on a hijacked plane. I need to have a back up plan to know what to do for the best.

GarlicMarchHare Mon 31-Mar-14 02:51:11

No, no, mobiles don't work out at sea or at high altitude. I don't imagine there are many cellphone masts along the Malaysian & Indonesian coastlines, tbh, it's mostly jungles & mountains - and if the plane flew low to avoid radar, it would have avoided any mobile signals as well!

There aren't any cellphone masts in the middle of the Indian Ocean. The passengers making calls on 9/11 were flying low over New York. New York has lots of cellphone cover.

... some long-haul planes now provide mobile data connection for a hefty price. The price is hefty because the signal has to be relayed thousands of miles via the plane's radio system, bouncing off satellites & being routed by ground stations to get to a cellphone service.

GarlicMarchHare Mon 31-Mar-14 03:02:14

Actually <digression alert> this incident has shown what an enormous number of people think you can get mobile phone cover anywhere. (This is weird, considering how often you lose signal in good old built-up Britain.) There must be a lot of satcomms companies working out how they can capitalise on the phenomenon ... !

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Mon 31-Mar-14 06:35:15

"theres stuff in the papers about the plane changing altitude and also flying low to avoid radar "

That's not confirmed at all - and if the southern route assumption is correct, the plane was rarely near radar and so would not have needed to do this. Air resistance is higher at lower altitude so the plane couldn't have flown for long at this level if it did so at all, or it wouldn't have flown for long enough to receive the last ping.

DieselSpillage Mon 31-Mar-14 07:31:59

It is not a known fact until Inmarsat shares the hard data. Until then it is an assertion by a shadowy defence contractor with a possible commercial bonanza in play.

this is someone elses comment but it expresses my opinion more succinctly than I could.

Why are we so invested in Inmarsats' holy grail analysis anyway ?

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Mon 31-Mar-14 07:39:17

What's in it for Inmarsat, Cranfield University and the UK AAIB to falsify data or analysis meaning the plane is less likely to be found? Where's the commercial bonanza there?

As I stated previously, that kind of opinion is offensive to those who worked their socks off to analyse data that was never meant to be used in this way. Might the analysis be wrong? Possibly, but it's been checked by the joint task force in this endeavour (you know, the ones who are sending their planes and boats to a dangerous bit of ocean and would like to know if they are risking those lives on the best information available). To suggest it's wrong is one thing. To suggest it's being manipulated for some badly defined commercial benefit is quite another.

Burmahere Mon 31-Mar-14 07:44:16

Oh god after 6 threads and thousands of posts I can't believe people are still labouring under the illusion that mobiles work somewhere as remote as over the Indian Ocean. Mine doesn't work in the next village and the mast is probably only a couple of minutes away.

I don't think there is any smirking going on either hmm plenty of despair and god knows where we start expressions though understandably.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Mon 31-Mar-14 07:44:41

Inmarsat is a 30 year old business traded on the London Stock Exchange, just like Glaxo, British Airways etc. It's not "shadowy"

Here's their annual report, if you are interested:

www.inmarsat.com/about-us/investor-relations/

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Mon 31-Mar-14 07:50:22

And according to the New Scientist, it was also reviewed by others:

" But to calculate that path it needed a methodology not used in aircraft tracking before, one that had to be peer reviewed for accuracy by a so-far unnamed rival satellite company, as well as by Boeing."

Logging off now.

DieselSpillage Mon 31-Mar-14 07:55:48

https://www.inmarsatgov.com/

It's not as if they are impartial

Damnautocorrect Mon 31-Mar-14 08:06:19

There are no phone masts in the Indian Ocean so there would be no signal. Think about when your In parts of the uk like outstanding beauty spots where you can't get service because there's no masts.

clam Mon 31-Mar-14 10:14:49

There appear to be a few posters on here who are relatively new to the threads. The mobile phone issue was discussed at length in the initial threads and goldie gave up in the end re-iterating that:

PASSENGERS COULD NOT HAVE USED THEIR MOBILE PHONES ON THAT FLIGHT.
That they did not, is NOT weird or odd, but only to be expected.

Catkinsthecatinthehat Mon 31-Mar-14 10:47:16

It's not as if they are impartial

The link you gave appears to be to a discrete US-spin off company, dealing solely with military telecoms. The work on the plane has been done by Inmarsat proper, at the HQ in London, with a range of academic, government and aviation partners. It's not been an IGO for a few years, but there's still involvement from a wide range of governments and international organisations, and they do a lot of free maritime safety work as well. It's not SPECTRE. It's hardly shadowy either - it's the biggest, ugliest building on the Old Street roundabout!

saffronwblue Mon 31-Mar-14 10:58:25

The orange things they found were bits of fishing equipment.
From an Australian perspective (where I live) this is a hugely expensive exercise. Our Prime Minister adores anything military so he is very happy to stride about next to defence personnel.
www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-31/malaysia-airlines-mh370-orange-objects-fishing-equipment/5357476

fflonkl Mon 31-Mar-14 12:27:35

The Inmarsat data was also reviewed by the likes of the NTSB & FAA, that was why there was a delay between it being handed over to Malaysia and it being made public.

I don't think Inmarsat is shadowy at all!

Burmahere Mon 31-Mar-14 12:35:28

Why didn't Goldie ever come back? Perhaps all this talk of mobiles exasperated her so much that she couldn't be bothered! Tis a shame though.

YNK Mon 31-Mar-14 12:40:20

I think Goldie was great on the techie data stuff, but maybe she now thinks the answers will never be found.

I think whoever was behind this intended it would never be found which makes the tinfoil hats multiply!! I think that's all we really have left, unfortunately!

GarlicMarchHare Mon 31-Mar-14 13:22:19

What's in it for Inmarsat - The US Defence department is their biggest client. They have just appointed a retired US defence bigshot, who is still a senior advisor to the White House, to their board.

The Inmarsat data was also reviewed by the likes of the NTSB & FAA, that was why there was a delay - Yes: a two-day delay, during which nothing new was found in the data. The achieved output of this 48-hour expert consultation was a diagram.

I've got nothing against Inmarsat. I just don't like people assuming pure motives on the part of all the players in a mysterious scenario involving big money and defence issues.

And the data has still not been released hmm

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Mon 31-Mar-14 13:33:02

I think pretty much all large satellite companies will deal with military/governments as key markets (Mrs Miggins from no. 42 not having much need for a satellite phone or location data) and that many Western satellite companies will deal with the US government/military - it being so big.

So for a company both to be able to gather this data AND to not have any contracts with military or government is highly unlikely ie whosever satellite it was, the same accusations of bias could probably have been made.

GarlicMarchHare Mon 31-Mar-14 13:38:41

Yes, of course, Doctrine.

Perhaps I haven't clarified that I'm not suspecting Inmarsat of having initiated any skullduggery. Sometimes businesses have to go along with what their markets want.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Mon 31-Mar-14 13:51:29

I guess I see the collaboration with Cranfield and the checking with the AAIB as further evidence against skulduggery, but I think we are in friendly disagreement on this smile

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Mon 31-Mar-14 14:00:55

This may be helpful:

"On Monday, Mr Hussein said the government would soon hold a briefing for those families to update them on the search for MH370, which would include international experts to explain the research, data and methodology used in the operation.

The briefing would also be broadcast live to other families in Beijing, he said."

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Mon 31-Mar-14 14:04:27

Goldie hasn't posted on MN at all of late - I don't think it's personal smile

member Mon 31-Mar-14 16:11:02

Malaysia now confirm wording of last words from MH370 after reports from CCTV's James Chau over the weekend claimed they were different to what had previously been released

[[ https://twitter.com/jameschau/status/450638745339850753/photo/1 here]]

GarlicMarchHare Mon 31-Mar-14 16:15:20

Surely "Goodnight, Malaysian 370" is perfectly normal?

Given the shroud of silence over this whole thing, it's annoying that the correction of a rare detail has only been made 23 days later! Who is misinforming whom?

member Mon 31-Mar-14 16:19:19

I think so Garlic; it was James Chau is an anchor on Chinese TV & was reporting these were the words over the weekend; guess he's saying Malaysia have let us think the last voice contact said "All right, goodnight" so what else are they being less than candid about?

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Mon 31-Mar-14 16:55:26
TheDoctrineOfSnatch Mon 31-Mar-14 17:03:44

"so what else are they being less than candid about?"

Maybe they were still checking if this was a "normal" phrase for the co-pilot and it was sensible not to correct the press until they had done so?

Maybe it wasn't that high priority regarding the press compared to the data analysis etc?

GarlicMarchHare Mon 31-Mar-14 17:30:35

That's a nice update, Doctrine. His releases are getting better. I still don't envy the guy!

member Mon 31-Mar-14 17:32:18

Not disagreeing with you Doctrine, surmising how this will be looked upon by the Chinese/press in particular in the absence of other news to report

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Mon 31-Mar-14 17:33:06

"I still don't envy the guy!"

Yy to this!

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Mon 31-Mar-14 18:54:59

Nothing new but quite a good summary from the BBC - seems they still don't know if it's pilot or co pilot.

"Malaysian authorities have issued a new version of the last communication between air traffic control and the cockpit of the missing flight MH370.

The last words spoken were "Good night Malaysian three seven zero" - and not "all right, good night" as reported.

The transport ministry said forensic investigations would determine whether the pilot or co-pilot spoke the words.

The plane, carrying 239 people, was travelling from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing when it disappeared on 8 March.

The plane's last contact took place at 01:19 Malaysian time.

The BBC's transport correspondent Richard Westcott says the new version of the last words is more formal and more in keeping with the way a pilot might usually speak to air traffic control than the wording previously reported.

It is not clear why it has changed or why it has taken the authorities this long to determine this, he says."

JKSLtd Mon 31-Mar-14 21:17:36

I cannot understand how something so straightforward can have been reported wrongly! It just makes you doubt everything - that sign off isn't desperately important so what about the important stuff?

TheHoneyBadger Mon 31-Mar-14 23:30:27

in a way i think their biggest mistake has been to pretend they were being transparent. as in if, from the start, they'd said 'we can't release all details.... what we are able to say....' etc it wouldn't all seem so dubious.

instead there have been denials that then turn out to be true, things given as true that turn out not to be etc.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Tue 01-Apr-14 00:15:29

www.straitstimes.com/the-big-story/missing-mas-plane/story/malaysia-says-theres-sealed-evidence-mh370-cannot-be-made-publ

"BEIJING - A Malaysian team have told relatives of Chinese passengers on board the missing Malaysia Airlines (MAS) flight MH370 that there was sealed evidence that cannot be made public, as they came under fire from the angry relatives at a briefing on Wednesday.

The sealed evidence included air traffic control radio transcript, radar data and airport security recordings."

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Tue 01-Apr-14 09:06:32

Apparently the Malaysian government are considering taking action against the press in the future for poor reporting.

Catkinsthecatinthehat Tue 01-Apr-14 09:43:26

The authoritarian Malaysian government has a long history of cracking down on the press, the opposition, bloggers, non-Muslims, secularists etc etc. It pretty much controls, by fear or favour, most of the print media and has jailed critical bloggers in the past, as well as faking criminal charges against Anwar.

I'm pretty suspicious that the Daily Mail attack on the pilot as being a suicidally fanatic supporter of the, er, democratic multi-ethnic multi-faith opposition party was a line fed to them from the government.

Burmahere Tue 01-Apr-14 09:46:34

Have the evening press conferences stopped or are they just not being broadcast here in the morning any more? It feels as though it is really slipping from the news understandably I suppose. Poor families though.

difficultpickle Tue 01-Apr-14 09:48:14

Did they give a reason for the sealing of evidence, eg on going criminal investigation?

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Tue 01-Apr-14 09:50:30

I don't think so - I assume national security/commercial confidentiality/criminal investigation.

The relatives are supposed to get a full transcript of ATC comms soon.

member Tue 01-Apr-14 10:00:39

Burma there was one yesterday but with UK clock change, it was at 10.30am rather than 9.30am our time.

The acting transport minister is going to a defence meeting in Hawaii so won't be there for a few days though he did joke he could still hold a PC when away.

Yesterday's was more or less a regurgitation of what the Aus PM had said earlier. The only thing to come out of it was press questioning the last words to ATC in light of James Chau of CCTV claiming that they were different to what the public had originally been told. They couldn't confirm or deny on the spot, but subsequently released a statement covering the last words. They also said there would be a briefing for relatives in KL which would be telecast in Beijing.

Details of the searches will continue to come out of Australia but via the newly set up JACC here rather than AMSA.

Burmahere Tue 01-Apr-14 10:11:32

Ah ok I will tune in at 10.30. I wonder who will hold it if the transport minister is away? I like him.

member Tue 01-Apr-14 10:16:39

Full transcript now released

here

member Tue 01-Apr-14 10:17:08

PC cancelled for today

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Tue 01-Apr-14 13:09:54

Facebook statement that the transcript was initially part of the police investigation.

I notice the transcript mentioned one of the way points.

DieselSpillage Tue 01-Apr-14 14:57:46
JKSLtd Tue 01-Apr-14 15:13:17

Wow.

Is intellihub a reputable site?

I can't believe it really, though of course it would be great if everyone was alive.
But would they ever be released and get home anyway?

And it doesn't explain how it didn't ping within the circle Inmarsat have out.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Tue 01-Apr-14 15:55:31

I think that was debunked as a fake on pprune.

AngelaDaviesHair Tue 01-Apr-14 16:03:40

It's debunked in the first few comments under the article itself, which set out how to fake the GPS data.

And really, hijack by US military for some unknown purpose, plane flown to Diego Garcia, all unmasked by man who hid his iPhone up his arse, that's more likely than a crash in the Indian ocean? Really?

DieselSpillage Tue 01-Apr-14 17:41:35

It's about as likely as a pilot flying 7 hours into the back of beyond, avoiding every known radar in order to kill himself and 200 others ...

or as likely as a plane that's caught fire flying on auto pilot for another 7 hours avoiding all radar...

How big is an i phone 5 anyway ... hmm

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Tue 01-Apr-14 17:44:05

"It's about as likely as a pilot flying 7 hours into the back of beyond, avoiding every known radar in order to kill himself and 200 others ..."

Assuming a constant southerly heading not long after the confirmed turns, there wasn't much radar to be deliberately avoided.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Tue 01-Apr-14 17:46:16

Hijacked plane goes to Diego Garcia is one thing, though unlikely.

Hijacked plane goes to DG and someone sends an iphone photo is 50 shades more unlikely.

JKSLtd Tue 01-Apr-14 18:15:27

Didn't seethe comments at first.

Also - if you got a chance to send a message in this situ - who would you send it to????

DieselSpillage Tue 01-Apr-14 18:17:46

I am hoping they meant in the bum cheeks not actually up! He needs my username. In this scenario why keep the hostages alive and risk them one day talking? It makes no sense.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Tue 01-Apr-14 20:43:40

" It makes no sense."

Well, quite.

I think the tin hatters are rubbing off on me grin

AnyaKnowIt Tue 01-Apr-14 21:15:54

A royal navy sub has joined in the search now

AnyaKnowIt Tue 01-Apr-14 21:19:58
GarlicAprilShowers Tue 01-Apr-14 22:06:01

This is all a bit weird. Not at all sure I buy the phone-up-the-bum story. Mind you, this whole thing is so fucking peculiar, who knows??! <runs out of tinfoil>

Having watched the conspiracy theory video, I revisited the stuff about Freescale in the light of what I've learned. If you didn't watch, it says the Carlyle Group owns both the surveillance company Edward Snowden worked for - Booz Allen Hamilton; it subcontracts from NASA - and Freescale.

There was also some stuff about the Bin Laden family's heavy investment in Carlyle and the embarrassing fact that George Bush was hobnobbing with them at an investor conference on 9/11. The Bin Ladens liquidated their holdings the next month, so I'm not sure how that's supposed to fit in.

Anyway. The much-discussed Freescale patent is for optimising the number of dies on a wafer. It's not as boring as it sounds - it's a way of making extremely small silicon chips. When the Wikipedia article on semiconductor chips was written, the smallest possible was 1mm square. I'm sure I've read that they're already being made smaller than this: the holy grail is to make them small enough to float as dust in the air and to penetrate skin! Argh, the future is freaky.

One of the people on the plane is an authority in SoC - systems on a chip. This means, in short, a computer system can be put on a little piece of tape, less than 1mm square. A group of people with the specialist knowledge in how to do it - from manufacturing resources & methods, to system development, to wafer carving, were all on that plane. It is absolutely true that their knowledge is worth gazillions of dollars, with implications on all areas of life. It's also true that, having been so recently awarded the patent, they are the only people who know how to do it.

AnyaKnowIt Tue 01-Apr-14 22:08:21

shock

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Tue 01-Apr-14 22:11:31

"It's also true that, having been so recently awarded the patent, they are the only people who know how to do it."

Um, not necessarily.

<contemplates boring on about the level of information required to make something eligible to be patented>

<decides to get a life>

GarlicAprilShowers Tue 01-Apr-14 22:14:05

As soon as I hit Send on that, I found a new tin foil hat!
Here's what it's telling me (via conspiracy waves, obv.)

What if the Bin Ladens became Carlyle Group's best financial friend, specifically in order to form contacts within the group? Then what if, after liquidating their holdings, they used some of those funds to support the research into nano-systems and/or to fund an information flow on progress? A long-term plan, therefore, with the intention of stealing a march on the rest of the world with weird cyber-weaponry. Some of the Freescale team may have been in on it, or they may have been stolen for their knowledge.

I don't actually see this as beyond the realms of possibility. I do, however, need some baking foil this evening so my hat will have to be re-purposed for now.

GarlicAprilShowers Tue 01-Apr-14 22:15:15

YY, Doctrine, the patent will tell you how to do it (if you understand that stuff!)

But you'd still need the expertise.

GarlicAprilShowers Tue 01-Apr-14 22:16:09

Can I come & share your life, when you get one? I'm making chocolate cake! <wheedles>

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Tue 01-Apr-14 22:21:23

Mmm, cake...

I like your new name.

I just think that there will be other people at the same company or who could be hired from Unis or whatever who could get up to speed on the methodologies pretty quickly. Plus if the patent has recently been granted (not sure in which jurisdictions) the stuff in it was actually invented 1-3 years ago.

GarlicAprilShowers Tue 01-Apr-14 22:25:45

Good, I really want it to be nothing to do with Al-Qaeda.
The fact that a bunch of micro-tech wizards were all on the plane may be no more significant than planes going down with rock bands or football teams on board.

Thank you! <does monthly name twirl>

claig Tue 01-Apr-14 22:34:50

Daily Express says the patent holders were not on the plane's manifest

www.express.co.uk/news/world/465557/Malaysian-plane-20-on-board-worked-for-ELECTRONIC-WARFARE-and-radar-defence-company

There are other conspiracies about the Freescale technology. You can google for it and look at some of the established conspiracy sites.

claig Tue 01-Apr-14 22:35:46

Quote from the Express is

"However, the absurd theory does not add up.

Although a Freescale patent does exist under number US8650327, none of the names listed actually appear on the passenger manifest released by the Malaysian authorities."

GarlicAprilShowers Wed 02-Apr-14 00:15:24

The Express quoted the wrong patent. But no passengers were named on the two patents granted on the 11th March, either!

DieselSpillage Wed 02-Apr-14 08:04:47

http://www.duncansteel.com/archives/507

Valid sounding theory based on Inmarsat's pings suggesting that the plane could have gone North ...

DieselSpillage Wed 02-Apr-14 08:12:35

www.duncansteel.com/archives/507

forgot to convert the link !

Inmarsat has been less than forthcoming with the data obtained from the pings from its satellite; in fact it has been outright obstructive, which is inexcusable in a situation such as this.

I'm confused now. If the plane was hijacked and flown to DG, which has american military presence, then who kidnapped the Freescale people for the patent? It can't be the americans as they already have it, and it can't be AQ as its an american base. Or have I missed something?

nauticant Wed 02-Apr-14 08:47:18

When the lawsuits really get motoring (there are reports they've started already) I wouldn't be surprised to see Inmarsat get sued. Maybe something along the lines of not coming up with an exact correct answer first thing thus causing emotional distress to the victims' families.

I doubt they'll have done anything wrong but they're there to be sued because they, well, they're simply there. In a no-good-deed-goes-unpunished kind of way.

I thought that Malaysia Airlines didn't subscribe to the Rolls Royce monitoring service though, and the only reason that the pings were recorded is that RR collect the engine data anyway. If that is the case I don't see how a company can be sued under these conditions as there is no actual contract. I could be wrong though, it was quite some time ago that I read about RR.

member Wed 02-Apr-14 09:12:59

Police Chief Khalid Bakar has made a statement here

It's in Malay & the online translators I've found are a bit rubbish.

Gist seems to be that all 227 passengers have been found "clean" regarding the four possible motives/scenarios that police are investigating. Investigations into pilot/co-pilot & rest of crew ongoing. To date, 170 individuals spoken to. Malay police will not be releasing any details until investigations complete as partial info may prejudice investigation.

Not sure if he means until the police investigations complete or the investigation into MH370's disappearance as a whole.

TheHoneyBadger Wed 02-Apr-14 09:20:39

hi - i had a friend here for the weekend and then i've been reading crazy stuff 'out there' on the net. it goes from madness to madness and god knows what to think anymore.

the girlfriend of phillip wood and her appearances on msm all over the place throw real confusion into things - seeing her cited as proof of conspiracy and revealing it by some but also seeing her being seen as part of the conspiracy and a shill and part of the plan for false flag stuff confused

the whole israeli embassy business is freaky too whether it's connected or not.

like garlic i've done lots of reading on the freescale technology involved and the ownership of patents and companies. the levels of technology possible and in the hands of military and shady companies is freaky enough without disappearing airplanes.

i joked to my friend this weekend that i was suddenly quite glad to be living in a massively insignificant place rather than the more exciting and vibrant locations of my 20's.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Wed 02-Apr-14 09:29:33

Once more, with feeling...

It isn't up to Inmarsat to release its data. It is up to the Malaysians.

singersgirl Wed 02-Apr-14 09:48:17

If you really wanted to kidnap someone for their patent I can think of many ways that would be more efficient than hijacking a plane hmm

I've translated the statement, member...

Police have found that all passengers on the missing Malaysian flight were “clean” of elements of seizure (?), sabotage and psychological or personal problems, but are continuing investigations into the crew including pilot and co-pilot, said the Chief of National Police Tan Sri Khalid Abu Bakar.

He said that investigations into the 227 passengers of MH370 found they were “free” of those four elements.

“They were found clear of those four (elements). This is following our own procedures (investigations),” he said to hournalists after formalizing a seminar for maintaining the quality of police teams here today.

He added that the police are still carrying our investigations based on the four elements regarding the crew including the pilot and co-pilot.

Khalid said that, to date, police have recorded statements from more than 170 individuals connected with the disappearance of the Boeing 777-200 and following this, the police will record even more statements.

Khalid said that the police will not be revealing any details resulting from investigations into this incident because this could jeopardize the ongoing investigation.

“I apologise, there are things that we cannot reveal to you; not because I don’t want to reveal them to you but because we cannot do so. Because this is a criminal investigation which is ongoing; we have not confirmed everything and are still waiting for reports from experts overseas and within the country.”

“You must understand. I think we have been very consistent (in this investigation). Who knows, maybe there may be prosecutions later. Therefore, it would jeopardize the prosecutor’s case if we start revealing the results of our investigation,” he said.

YNK Wed 02-Apr-14 11:33:16

The Express article says the remaining patentholder is Freescale, but I read elsewhere that it was Jacob Rothschild!

Does anyone know which is correct?

allisgood1 Wed 02-Apr-14 12:06:07

It means nothing that those peoples backgrounds came up clean. There's a first time for everything. According to my army solider cousin, there were 20+ people who were all involved in High tech government work. A terrorist or terrorist group won't necessarily be forthcoming right now if the disappearance of this plane was only a small part of their bigger plan. I don't know if that plane is in the ocean, but every day that goes by with no leads (and over the past 2 days there have been no reports of the search process) leads me to further doubt that it is. I do think everyone not involved (the actual innocent people) have sadly been killed.

YNK Wed 02-Apr-14 12:33:39

I think if gaining control of/experimenting with cybertechnology capable of radar blocking or remote flight control is anything to do with it, then the intention is to avoid detection at all cost. I don't think any trace of evidence will ever be found, sadly for the innocents on board!

<adjusts tinfoil headgear>

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Wed 02-Apr-14 13:01:19

" I don't know if that plane is in the ocean, but every day that goes by with no leads (and over the past 2 days there have been no reports of the search process) "

I don't understand the thinking here. The ocean is precisely the most difficult place to find the plane. If the search clock was set as at seven days ago and a probability was estimated of finding the plane within seven days within a search area the size of Poland, allowing for flying time, cloud cover etc, the probability of finding it would be less than 50%, I'm sure, probably a lot less.

nauticant Wed 02-Apr-14 13:28:12

You could look at it in terms of what is the total area of sea/ocean within flying range and what is the total area of runaway pavement within flying range, and then figure out which location looks more likely as a final destination.

Doctrine, I was struggling to put that into words. I don't understand the assumption that it's going to be quick or easy either. It's going to be long and arduous. I think it is in the ocean but I'm not sure if they will ever find it. Hopefully they will find something that is from the plane, at least that would be closure of a sort for the families.

member Wed 02-Apr-14 14:15:47

Thanks The Elements Song

As far as I'm concerned, technology has made people think that the world is smaller than it actually is! Internet, phones etc allow us to have almost instant connection with people all over the globe & we seem to forget how much of the planet is ocean. Even if we do look at a globe or Earth from space & appreciate that there is a lot of blue, we find that difficult to translate into exactly how vast it is in reality.

We have also been somewhat spoiled in the UK with the relative speed with which high profile cases of missing people have appeared to be solved; Joanna Yeates, Shannon Matthews, Mikael Kular are three that immediately spring to mind.

Nauticant who's to say the investigators haven't done that? It was only on the 24th March that it was announced the search was focusing on the South after all.

GarlicAprilShowers Wed 02-Apr-14 14:30:00

I think the patent is a red herring. I'm sorry I fell for it. The existence of Freescale technicians on the flight may be connected with a motive for hijacking/murder, or it may be a coincidence. My tin hat's on standby for that one, mainly due to the speed with which they were all dismissed as 'admin' which wasn't true. You just have look at some of their qualifications.

Not being an expert in radio signal doppler analysis, I have no idea whether the southern route is as certain as we've been told. Going North instead, there are a few credible - not likely, but credible - scenarios that would end up covering about a quarter of the planet as potential destinations: some of them very remote, on land as well as sea.

YY to the vastness of oceans.

I want to know whether US surveillance have photos! If not, why not?! They're very proud of their planetary observation; I think they've played this wrong unless they did nick the plane.

member Wed 02-Apr-14 14:37:33

I'm pretty sure they'll have something Garlic. Problem is that they're paranoid about Islamist extremists/Communists any ist that doesn't subscribe to the American Dream that sadly, I wouldn't be surprised if they were prepared to take the collateral damage of losing a small number of US citizens over revealing their surveillance capabilities.

<<puts Bacofoil back in the cupboard>>

GarlicAprilShowers Wed 02-Apr-14 14:51:24

Yes. Bloody annoying, though, isn't it? Especially to all those conducting painstaking searches of vague destinations, not to mention the family members.

I need a few $zillions to launch my own satellite surveillance network. I'll put it all online. That'll larn 'em! <dons hat, buys lottery ticket>

Rosa Wed 02-Apr-14 14:56:19

I keep logging on reading bbc , here , newspapers as do we all. I still smell a rat despite what has been said . No idea what kind of a rat but somebody is holding something back and i don't think its the malaysians .

I am sure I read somewhere that the US offered help immediately but the Malaysian government turned it down. Perhaps it was when they were still certain that the plane was in the SCS? If this did happen in collusion with another government its one that has some brass neck as not many countries would want to piss off China. The Uyghurs could be a possibility for a hijack/crash scenario but why not claim responsibility?

GarlicAprilShowers Wed 02-Apr-14 18:00:34

The US has been helping all along, miley. It sent FBI agents & accident investigators to help with the data evaluation, and is about to send some more planes for searching. I was referring specifically to their state-of-the-art surveillance, which either doesn't work as well as they crack on, or is being withheld.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Wed 02-Apr-14 18:12:40

...or is not directed at the Indian Ocean, or is being shared with the taskforce to rule things in and out but only secretly (for example - we aren't clear what has changed the estimate of speed other than "satellite and radar data")

I'd be quite happy to believe they oversell its merits in public - that's bravado, not conspiracy!

Me too Doctrine, they are good at bravado. Given the situation with Russia I wouldn't be surprised if they were looking entirely the other way at the time.

Lambstales Wed 02-Apr-14 21:47:45

Hi Doctrine are you a patent attorney?

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Wed 02-Apr-14 22:15:03

No, but I know a man who is grin

Lambstales Wed 02-Apr-14 22:38:26

How interesting..
Could I PM you ?

AchyFox Thu 03-Apr-14 00:45:44

I fear your last admission may have perforated a broadly cylindrical container, encapsulating a plurality of substantially vermiform entities.wink

<Just practising for upcoming patents>grin

GarlicAprilShowers Thu 03-Apr-14 01:45:13

Achy grin

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Thu 03-Apr-14 08:08:49

Sure, but no promises!

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Thu 03-Apr-14 08:11:45

Weather conditions clear today so fingers crossed.

member Thu 03-Apr-14 09:40:09

Areas searched to date with today's planned area here

No PC planned for today, though a statement will be issued (probably just a recap of the Malaysian PM's visit to Australia).

Malaysian media centre for MH370 to close 7th April acording to James Chau CCTV

MsVelvet Thu 03-Apr-14 12:06:50
MsVelvet Thu 03-Apr-14 12:33:29
singersgirl Thu 03-Apr-14 12:40:37

Oh, come on. That poor woman is desperately clinging to hope. It's a recognised stage of grief. My mother spent months after my father's death imagining there had been a mistake.

Also, both those theories can't be true. The US govt wouldn't need to kidnap people working for a US company.

MsVelvet Thu 03-Apr-14 12:45:16

yes may well be, but when you read through the threads for both come up with a lot of interesting stuff.

singersgirl Thu 03-Apr-14 12:48:13

Yes, you realise that some people really like to let their imaginations run riot.

MsVelvet Thu 03-Apr-14 12:49:41

No plane, no proof of anything. Fact. So any theory is fair game at the moment.

nauticant Thu 03-Apr-14 12:56:44

In that case I'll go for UFO abduction.

GarlicAprilShowers Thu 03-Apr-14 13:24:30

No, it was cursed by the ghost crew of the Mary Celeste. It will be found in 100 years' time, inexplicably embedded in the Himalayas. And then a space ship will go missing without trace ... ...

I think you'll find that it's actually on the TARDIS

AchyFox Thu 03-Apr-14 13:29:34

Someone else with concerns about the unavailability of the full Inmarsat data

One of the things that�s become clear, unfortunately, is just how difficult it is to draw any firm conclusions from the ping data. Even the confident assertion by the Malaysian prime minister that the northern route had been ruled out seems, on closer inspection, to be a fairly rickety claim. What Inmarsat actually said in its analysis was that if one assumed that the plane maintained a steady speed, then a straight-ahead course on the southern arc more nearly matched the ping data than a similar course to the north. But we already know that before it disappeared the plane was changing speeds and flying a zigzag course. (Indeed, to get to the southern Indian Ocean, MH370 would have had to do an about-face from its last known course; if it had followed a straight-ahead track, it would have wound up in Kazakhstan.) The �evidence� that the Malaysian prime minister cited as justification for telling passengers� families that all hope has been lost was really just the output of a model into which an assumption had been fed. Or perhaps there�s more to it than that�we just don�t know, because neither Inmarsat nor the Malaysian authorities will share their full data or show their work.

GarlicAprilShowers Thu 03-Apr-14 13:32:42

Miley smile

AngelaDaviesHair Thu 03-Apr-14 16:18:53

any theory is fair game at the moment

which does not mean that all theories are equally credible.

GarlicAprilShowers Thu 03-Apr-14 19:08:09

I've fancied Kazakhstan as a potential hijack destination ever since we heard the plane headed north. It's full of rock plateaux like this. (Disclaimer: I've been fascinated by Kazakhstan from childhood!)

Second picture is a different region, near Tyuratam where the Vostock space programme was founded.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Thu 03-Apr-14 20:23:47

On radio 4 now. 10,000 containers apparently floating in that part of the sea!!

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Thu 03-Apr-14 20:24:13

Whole 30 min programme but I've only just put it in.

member Thu 03-Apr-14 21:00:54

shock at containers (as in shipping containers??)

Does anybody know what the position is regarding an interim report on MH370's disappearance?

As I understand it, if it was in the UK, an interim report would be published 30 days after the incident to bring the industry/public up to date. Not sure if this is an International Air Accident standard?

GarlicAprilShowers Thu 03-Apr-14 21:17:41

Containers are ocean crap sad

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Thu 03-Apr-14 21:21:34

Woe.

member Thu 03-Apr-14 21:26:50

"shipping companies do not have to report lost containers when they go overboard, despite the fact that they constitute a hazard to other vessels"

[shakes head]

MsVelvet Thu 03-Apr-14 21:51:06

But what about the people who own these containers, do they not have to be informed if their one ends up overboard :/ Id be raging if my stuff never turned up where it was expected and it had not been reported to have gone overboard!

JKSLtd Thu 03-Apr-14 21:58:20

Guess it must be mass cargo - with a certain amount written off in transit - rather than personal goods being shipped home/abroad.

But still...

Burmahere Thu 03-Apr-14 22:07:31

Insurance I guess?

It is appalling though.

No news reports at all today sad

GarlicAprilShowers Thu 03-Apr-14 22:52:27

Blimey, it's a pilferer's paradise, isn't it? "It fell off the back of a ship, guv, honest. I was just doin' me civic duty, like, can't have it littering the seaways, now, can we? Good citizen, I am, officer, you ask anyone round here."
<officer gazes upon expanse of blue, scratches chin>

allisgood1 Fri 04-Apr-14 03:35:30

Today was the first day i checked CNN and saw nothing sad Looks like the media are giving up hope like myself

MooseBeTimeForSpring Fri 04-Apr-14 04:22:36

It is possible to identify exactly what is in each container, so if there are some missing on arrival, they can work out what it is they've lost.

Many of them sink immediately due to their heavy contents. Others will sink after they become waterlogged. Some do float for a while and if spotted will be reported so that vessels know to keep more of a look out.

Some do break open. There's quite a famous one involving a cargo of rubber ducks. They're now being used to help chart ocean currents.

MooseBeTimeForSpring Fri 04-Apr-14 04:24:15
TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 04-Apr-14 04:30:19

Thanks, I didn't know that about the ducks.

Burmahere Fri 04-Apr-14 07:43:45

There was a little mention on R4 just now about today's search with the ping ship (I think?) narrowed down to a 150 mile radius which I found odd as how have they reduced it to that small an area? Needed to have listened more careful but running around like a loon trying to get out of the door!

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 04-Apr-14 08:03:10

That's their highest probability bit but it's also the max size of the area for one day - if they don't find it there they will move in to another area of the same size tomorrow.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 04-Apr-14 08:03:33

(It is on the bbc website)

AnyaKnowIt Fri 04-Apr-14 09:53:05

Its headline back on sky news this morning

AnyaKnowIt Fri 04-Apr-14 09:53:21
PaulinesPen Fri 04-Apr-14 10:04:10

Apologies if this has already been mentioned, but why don't black boxes transmit their information directly to a computer or a satellite? It seems mad with the technology that we have now to be physically looking for something in the seaconfused

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 04-Apr-14 10:41:32

The air France report suggested all black boxes had 90 days of battery life. I think this will be implemented by 2018 or something...

Ppen, I think because of the expense, and that would be a vast amount of data being stored. The black box isn't really a locator device, it's a recording device, the other systems (which Malaysian didn't subscribe to) give more location information .

Catkinsthecatinthehat Fri 04-Apr-14 12:00:14

Remember the Mail ran an interview with the Captain's daughter indicating he was lost and suicidal before the crash?

Well it appears that it was totally made up

claig Fri 04-Apr-14 14:26:29

That is surprising

Forago Fri 04-Apr-14 15:25:18

Back in the eighties friends of my parents were moving back from the middle east and put all their house contents on a shipping container which fell off - they lost all of their carefully packed possessions bar the suitcase of clothes they had travelled with. I am not sure of the details but they were informed about it and I believe they were compensated by some sort of insurance - but were still devastated. To top it all, their perfectly healthy dog was "mistakenly" put down whilst in 6 month quarantine.

GarlicAprilShowers Fri 04-Apr-14 15:39:44

Pauline, I'm really not sure there's a signal that could make it through a 2-mile density of water intact, then travel through the air to a satellite station!

GarlicAprilShowers Fri 04-Apr-14 15:43:57

Dear me, Forago, that must have been upsetting! Almost worse than losing everything in a fire.

BoiledPiss Fri 04-Apr-14 16:07:53

Forago that is awful sad
I cannot get over the fact things just 'fall off' ships! shock

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Fri 04-Apr-14 16:14:39

They don't just fall off - the floatees above were washed off in a storm - one hell of a storm to dislodge a forty foot container, I get scared watching the boat scene in Wolf if Wall Street!!

BoiledPiss Fri 04-Apr-14 16:15:32

That scene was scary though Doctrine!

PaulinesPen Fri 04-Apr-14 16:49:12

Garlic No, that's very true when you think of it in those terms. Two miles of water is a hell of a depth.

nauticant Fri 04-Apr-14 17:53:14

PaulinesPen - to be able to transmit through 2 mile depth of water and then the hundreds of miles to a satellite would require a large antenna and a huge battery to be able to drive it for 30/90 days. This would increase the size of the black box considerably and as the black box becomes larger the less likely it is to survive a plane crash.

It's about compromises. It's better to have a black box that is likely to survive more than 95% of crashes rather than one that, in theory, is able to broadcast from the bottom of the ocean but probably won't survive a crash.

MooseBeTimeForSpring Fri 04-Apr-14 20:08:07

Not to mention the pressure at a depth of two miles

Lambstales Fri 04-Apr-14 22:13:06

I still stick to what I said on 26/3/2014.

This thread didn't start till after that do unless you are going to tell us what that is it's going to remain a mystery. I certainly can't be arsed to go back and find it.

Burmahere Fri 04-Apr-14 22:56:23

grin!

singersgirl Fri 04-Apr-14 23:22:31

I think she said she doesn't believe a word of it. I'm just guessing.

LoopyDoopyDoo Sat 05-Apr-14 12:23:40

Did anyone see the CNN interview with Sarah Bacj, girlfriend of Philip Wood, by any chance? I can't find it online

LoopyDoopyDoo Sat 05-Apr-14 12:37:50

Oh, found it here

AGnu Sat 05-Apr-14 12:50:02

BBC breaking news says a Chinese ship has picked up a 'pulse' but they don't yet know the origin of it!

JKSLtd Sat 05-Apr-14 12:53:02

Please let this be it!

allisgood1 Sat 05-Apr-14 13:07:13

Just saw the breaking news, please don't let this be a false alarm again!

AGnu Sat 05-Apr-14 13:09:32

Anyone have any idea what else could be down there sending out a pulse signal? confused Surely if they've found something sending out the right sort of signal in what they think is the right sort of area then it's incredibly unlikely to be anything else! I guess they can't say for sure until they've actually got hold of it though, just in case!

member Sat 05-Apr-14 13:14:07

Fingers crossed this isn't a false alarm

Noseypoke Sat 05-Apr-14 14:09:35

Fingers crossed it is not a false alarm!!

member Sat 05-Apr-14 14:15:44

Apparently only heard for 1.5 minutes though, also heard yesterday?! Not sure what to think

BoiledPiss Sat 05-Apr-14 14:22:51

Oh my goodness, i hope this is it

member Sat 05-Apr-14 14:25:43

Correction to above - 4 "pings" heard in a 15 minute period a/c to James Chau CCTV

funnyperson Sat 05-Apr-14 14:29:40

I wonder who gets the black box? the people who find it or malaysian airlines or the fbi or china?

member Sat 05-Apr-14 14:42:24

I believe there has been an agreement that anything physical found will be brought to Australia & an International Team of investigators will work there to try and re-construct what happened.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sat 05-Apr-14 14:46:30

It's interesting that the Chinese ship heard the pings when it has been the Australian ship towing the pinger and the UK ship described as having similar technology.

member Sat 05-Apr-14 14:57:05

Quite, not sure if the JACC even knew the chinese ship had that capability! Also not quite sure why ship in question is in an area north of the search planned for today anyway?

I imagine the Chinese are deeply suspicious of any investigation other than their own so they are probably working their own end too.

funnyperson Sat 05-Apr-14 20:25:50

It would be very restrained of whoever found it to not listen to anything until the 'international team' had gathered. Especially as it might take days for a ship to get back to Australia.

JKSLtd Sat 05-Apr-14 20:29:10

Not sure how easy it is to 'listen' to?
Even to open up somehow and then it's hardly going to have a play button !
Might need software or something that's not on the ship.
Esp as that ship apparently isn't equipped to find it?

And will that ship be the one picking it up? Or will some sort of submarine have to go down?

Jumping the gun somewhat I guess as no-one has even confirmed it is the box, or where it is exactly.

AchyFox Sat 05-Apr-14 21:53:06

Presumably the Chinese recorded the pings.

So it should be straightforward to analyse the recording.

But there is nothing in the media about a recording.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sat 05-Apr-14 21:56:35

No, they have stated they didn't record them as they were taken by surprise.

Remember the ship wasn't in the search area and isn't one of the official black box towers.

allisgood1 Sat 05-Apr-14 21:58:14

I read that they did record it the second time. The first time it was too short and they were caught off guard. What is going to happen now? Will they launch a submarine to get it? Or how will they get it?? News isn't revealing that info.

AnyaKnowIt Sat 05-Apr-14 22:00:27

So do the Chinese now more then they are letting on?

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sat 05-Apr-14 22:08:53

" A reporter with the Chinese state broadcaster, CCTV, who is on board Haixun, said the ship had first picked up the signal on Friday, when pings were detected intermittently for about 15 minutes. But other vessels were in the vicinity, raising the possibility that they might have been the source.

Haixun then heard the signal again on Saturday, when the pings were picked up every second for 90 seconds.

Objects floating in the sea, which may have been wreckage, were also photographed by a Chinese reconnaissance aircraft about 60 miles from where Haixun detected the pings.

Haixun is a patrol and survey ship operated by the China Coast Guard. Weighing 5,400 tonnes and with a length of 430ft, the vessel is capable of conducting search, rescue and survey missions thousands of miles from its home base. "

from the Telegraph. Nothing about recording.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sat 05-Apr-14 22:09:39

I imagine that they may send one of the other ships to verify but I am not sure how long it will take to get there.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sat 05-Apr-14 22:41:30
TheHoneyBadger Sun 06-Apr-14 07:41:35

from watching american news it sounds like everyone is extremely cautious about taking this seriously because the chances of accidentally picking up this signal are astronomically unlikely in terms of probability.

they're relocating better searchers to that area i believe but are trying not to sound optimistic and they keep on stressing this 'the battery could have gone before they get there' business. the whole '30 days' business is still being pedaled without any 'it can last longer' and in fact on usa news they seem to be stressing 'it can run out sooner'.

the idea that a ship that isn't specialised, wasn't searching, didn't have debris to go by etc could just pick up the signal (for which they'd have to be literally over the top of it in that area of the ocean due to depth) in a body of water that size sounds incredibly far fetched when you listen to experts who have conducted search operations.

TheHoneyBadger Sun 06-Apr-14 07:43:17

also as of last night no one official had reported this - this was a journalist who happened to be on the ship spilling the news to their news agency and there had been no official statement from the ship or authorities to verify it.

JKSLtd Sun 06-Apr-14 08:51:04

And now Sky is saying the Australians picked up an acoustic 'event ' about 350miles away. Can't both be the same box.
Obvious q: are the fdr & cvr in the same case? Or could they be separated in a crash and send separate pings?

helzapoppin2 Sun 06-Apr-14 09:07:00

This is so interesting. If not a black box, what else is under the sea sending out acoustic signals?

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sun 06-Apr-14 09:07:23

There's been an official statement from the search coordinator. I think the British ship is heading towards the Chinese one (will take 14h) and the Australian ship is further investigating what it heard (the oz ship would take more than 30h to get to the chinese one)

TheHoneyBadger Sun 06-Apr-14 10:01:11

scientists have been saying they put lots of equipment in the ocean and attach pingers that use that frequency so that it can be located later helza.

funnyperson Sun 06-Apr-14 17:08:46

I suspect the Chinese have been doing their own mathematical calculations on whatever data is available: they have some clever mathematicians in that country: and IT knowledge capable of getting data analysed: and therefore didn't I dont think they heard the pings in the place where they were by chance at all, they were looking there, and they may have their own pinger detectors they wouldn't necessarily have told anyone else about. They may not, of course.
In addition there is the fact that the current mathematical models are not set in stone and could vary by things like wind speed and aircraft speed and currents and so forth and there fore it made sense for the Chinese to be searching in a slightly different place.
In addition there is more likely to be the risk of false alarms in the place where Australia's flotsam will naturally end up which is what seems to have occurred so far.
I so want the plane to be found and to know why and how it went down, and for it to be preventable. I am clutching at any straw and feel for the families who have lost loved ones: how much more up and down must they be for every little piece of information. It is interesting that on all the news sites, news about the plane gets the most hits so this has struck a chord the world over.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Sun 06-Apr-14 19:56:59

Hms echo has arrived in the area.

TheHoneyBadger Sun 06-Apr-14 22:03:07

agreed funny - it is also laughable the assumption that the chinese haven't got their own leading experts and their own data that they've been working with OR their own ships, subs, tracking systems that could be as or more effective as the british or US ships and subs that were being sent.

get over yourself western world.

newfavouritething Mon 07-Apr-14 07:44:21

Breakfast tv are telling me that an Australian ship has also heard 'pings', and for over 2 hours in the same place on two occasions. Do I believe them? Or do I come onto mn for verification?

OwlCapone Mon 07-Apr-14 07:56:23

scientists have been saying they put lots of equipment in the ocean and attach pingers that use that frequency so that it can be located later helza.

Wouldn't the owner of any such equipment have mentioned it by now though?

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Mon 07-Apr-14 08:37:27

That's the statement - oz ship ocean shield heard pings for two hours 20 and then turned round and heard again for 13 mins. They are trying to pin point the location.

AGnu Mon 07-Apr-14 09:33:35

Owl I suppose they might not know their equipment is there. Someone might attach a tracking device to a whale that's supposed to detach & float so it can be retrieved but it malfunctioned somehow & sunk, got washed away in the current & could be pretty much anywhere!

It sounds like there have been 3 signals detected - 2 in the same place by the Australians & 1 by the Chinese. As far as I know there are just 2 things on a plane which should be pinging like that so that must mean that there's at least 1 random extra ping coming from somewhere! confused

difficultpickle Mon 07-Apr-14 09:36:50

I wonder how far the pings can travel under water? I thought that once they had the US locating device on location it would have been a relatively simple process to pinpoint the exact location.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Mon 07-Apr-14 10:01:38

"I wonder how far the pings can travel under water? I thought that once they had the US locating device on location it would have been a relatively simple process to pinpoint the exact location."

No, because the pings don't travel just straight up, they spread out from a central point plus are subject to water currents and distortions.

difficultpickle Mon 07-Apr-14 10:06:07

I realise they travel from a central point but I wondered how far and whether the apparently sophisticated US equipment was able to calculate that.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Mon 07-Apr-14 10:35:47

I think the more data they have (ie several passes over the same area) the more accurate they can be.

OwlCapone Mon 07-Apr-14 11:26:32

Owl I suppose they might not know their equipment is there.

I kind of get that, but if the black box batteries only last 30 days or so, either the "other equipment" has far better batteries (so why doesn't the Black box) or the scientists are dreadfully forgetful. Surely given the huge coverage they'd have some idea whether their equipment is in the area - eg they would have been following a whale collar as that is the point.

I'm not disputing that it could be something else, I'm just struggling to understand how no one has said it could be theirs.

OwlCapone Mon 07-Apr-14 11:28:23

I'm surprised how difficult it's been to find it actually. Before this, I'd assumed planes were tracked constantly and would be easy to find. It's been an education.

GarlicAprilShowers Mon 07-Apr-14 13:00:18

The pings can travel about a mile underwater, depending on conditions.
Only 10% of the sea bed is mapped.
3D sea floor mapping has only just become possible.
Black box batteries are only guaranteed for 30 days, but have lasted 2 years in the past (AF447).

It is an education, isn't it, Owl!

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Mon 07-Apr-14 13:09:29

The signal will continue after 30 days but the strength may lessen.

TheHoneyBadger Mon 07-Apr-14 19:17:14

there's a lot of misinfo about these batteries to the point it gets confusing. u.s. news seems to be making out that they 'can' last as long as 30 days but might die sooner whereas my understanding has been they're guaranteed to last 30days but can last a lot longer (as in the air france flight one above).

watching some reports you can have two experts on the same slot giving seemingly totally different impressions. it does feel deliberately confusing.

likewise there's been this impression made that turning a transponder off makes a plane invisible which is a nonsense. the plane still shows up on radar - all the transponder does is transmit the flight details and identify some data about it - that is not what any halfway modern airport relies upon and as has been pointed out private airplanes don't have to have transponders yet air traffic control still traces them and responds when they are somewhere they shouldn't be.

malaysia is not some backwater shanty town airport (i've been to a few of those mind). there is no way on earth that a plane would disappear from their civilian radar system purely from the transponder going off. likewise once the 'it flew low' misinformation was discounted there was no longer any rational explanation as to why it would 'disappear' from the military radar which they finally admitted had tracked it for a further an hour.

TheHoneyBadger Mon 07-Apr-14 19:19:42

oh and i still stand by thinking it utterly impossible that the airways there are so unsecured. straits of malacca are of massive significance and there is a massive amount of millitary presence and scrambling for territory and observational scope in that area of the world.

a little research into military significance and developments in the area makes very clear that this is a hugely signicant area in modern power play and strategic positioning.

that doesn't make me a conspiracy nut but it does, quite rationally, make me have a lot of unanswered rational questions that the media is pointedly avoiding.

member Mon 07-Apr-14 20:05:21

Telegraph says area where pings have been heard corresponds to where Inmarsat calculated last partial handshake to be

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10750765/MH370-missing-plane-black-box-pings-tracked-to-same-point-as-final-half-handshake.html

Jjuice Mon 07-Apr-14 23:44:58

Ashamed to be human. All that trash!!sad

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Tue 08-Apr-14 06:58:47

They are trying to relocate the pings but no luck yet.

Interesting article, particularly interesting that the pings are being heard around the point of the partial handshake.

Does anyone remember that ad from a few years ago where the ocean threw back all the junk onto land? Can't remember what it was advertising but it was visually stunning. This search has reminded me of it.

EverythingCounts Tue 08-Apr-14 21:57:58

All the reporting I have seen has nonchalantly referred to the black box shutting down after 30 days. None of it has acknowledged what has been repeatedly pointed out on here, that the 30 days is the minimum and it may well last longer. It's been a big weakness of the way the news 'narrative' has been shaped to fit a need for drama and 'time running out...'

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Tue 08-Apr-14 22:04:37
TheDoctrineOfSnatch Tue 08-Apr-14 22:08:18

Whereas this previous article mentioned possibly another two weeks...

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10750765/MH370-missing-plane-black-box-pings-tracked-to-same-point-as-final-half-handshake.html

I think it is reasonable of the media to report on the 30 days as that is the only guaranteed limit. After this, even if there is still signal, who knows how long it is for?

member Wed 09-Apr-14 05:17:44

Ocean Shield relocated signal twice yesterday (8th April) Signal held for 5 & 7 minutes respectively

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Wed 09-Apr-14 06:14:15

Fingers crossed .

NumanoidNancy Wed 09-Apr-14 09:34:22

Have we had this yet? Really good graphic demonstrating the sheer depths of ocean that they are dealing with to try and locate the black box. Kind of seems hopeless once you take this in to be honest...

apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/world/the-depth-of-the-problem/931/

Wow, that graphic really does put it into perspective Nancy.

AchyFox Wed 09-Apr-14 12:59:36

Ocean Shield relocated signal twice

Is that Fox News ?

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Wed 09-Apr-14 13:07:18
AchyFox Wed 09-Apr-14 13:40:13

Thanks for the Telegraph link, it does look like this could be it.

At those depths would they be able to recover anything, or is it a case of sending a sub to ID it?

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Wed 09-Apr-14 16:15:46

Submersible first but they can't have comms with the sub whilst it is down there - it does a 12 hour scan then comes back up.

TheHoneyBadger Wed 09-Apr-14 16:16:23

apparently it's a case of subs (of the little remote kind) to go back and forth over it trying to pin down location, then subs to go down with video cams that identify it, then subs that are able to extract and take what is needed etc. i may not be being technologically precise but that's the summary of what i got from listening to experts on U.S news channels.

Thanks, I just can't visualise those sort of depths so that graphic that nancy posted was really helpful. I read in one of the articles that silt is going to be a major problem too. At least it looks like they are in the right area.

helzapoppin2 Thu 10-Apr-14 06:04:00

Nancy that graphic is amazing! and very atmospheric. You really feel as if you're diving as you scroll down. It gives the search some perspective.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Thu 10-Apr-14 06:56:42

They are searching for debris west of the ocean shield pinger hearings.

CharlieSierra Thu 10-Apr-14 10:47:20

Does anyone else think it's a bit odd that having found absolutely no wreckage or sign of this plane before, they suddenly appear to have located the black box in the middle of nowhere, just at the point where the batteries are about to die? It feels to me like they must have been pointed to the spot by someone/something. I've not been buying into the conspiracy theories at all, but this does seem a tad far fetched.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Thu 10-Apr-14 10:56:18

Not really - the partial handshake and the additional analysis re airspeed have been used to help narrow the search area, I think.

OwlCapone Thu 10-Apr-14 11:41:30

It's not really "suddenly" is it?

allisgood1 Thu 10-Apr-14 13:02:50

The only thing I find odd is a lack of debris.

CharlieSierra Thu 10-Apr-14 13:04:04

I know they've been searching for weeks, but they were describing searching for a needle in a haystack without knowing where the haystack is, searching a vast search area turned up no sign of wreckage. It did feel to me as though they suddenly knew much more specifically where to look - maybe I didn't keep up with the news reports but I wasn't aware of any reports about further analysis narrowing the search area to this extent.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Thu 10-Apr-14 13:22:04

It's been a month, allis - much of the debris would have drifted or sunk (or both!)

AnyaKnowIt Thu 10-Apr-14 17:15:47

So a plane had detected a signal

allisgood1 Thu 10-Apr-14 19:44:19

There are many components of a plane that don't sink, but float. Ships have been searching the area for weeks. It's odd.

TheHoneyBadger Thu 10-Apr-14 19:49:41

in the face of this you can't help but find it farcical.

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Thu 10-Apr-14 19:51:21

They haven't been searching this area for weeks though.

member Fri 11-Apr-14 04:05:18

Rumours that black box found!!!

member Fri 11-Apr-14 04:16:35

Carried away -- should be located/position narrowed enough to get submersible in water

AnyaKnowIt Fri 11-Apr-14 11:17:44

Thought a sub was already there?

member Fri 11-Apr-14 11:32:04

By submersible, I mean the Blue Fin 21 that can do underwater exploration

TheHoneyBadger Fri 11-Apr-14 11:55:02

link?

It's on the BBC website

allisgood1 Fri 11-Apr-14 14:16:46

Abbott confident signals from MH370 black box
http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/10/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/index.html

This goes on to say they aren't confident, completely opposite to the articles title...

GarlicAprilShowers Fri 11-Apr-14 14:41:05

Keeping thread on list.

member Fri 11-Apr-14 21:29:47

[Shock] [[ instagram.com/p/mqZMtQiFrR/ here]]

member Fri 11-Apr-14 21:30:47

Oh fgs

AnyaKnowIt Fri 11-Apr-14 21:56:33

Ooh, but can't find it reported anywhere else?

member Fri 11-Apr-14 22:38:35

It's an exclusive that only appears to be in the paper version which most Malaysians won't have seen yet as it's not quite 5.30am Saturday there.

CNN have been reporting things supposedly told to them by senior government officials in Malaysia. Namely:
The last voice heard by ACT was that of the Captain

Radar contact was lost for approx 120 miles as My370 flew back across the peninsula because it flew at 5000ft or less.

Royal Malaysian Air force scrambled jets at 8am after they heard My370 was missing but didn't tell the investigating team they had done so till 3 days later.

Malaysia have said the last claim is false (yesterday via transport minister on Twitter, today formal statement from RMAF to media), but have not heard first two claims being refuted...

GarlicAprilShowers Fri 11-Apr-14 22:39:11