Anyone else keeping a little eye on the new flu virus?

(91 Posts)

Seems that we have a newly emerging avian flu virus in the Shanghai region of China. Utterly unrelated to H5N1, this one is an H7N9 strain and never been seen before in humans. I spotted it at the beginning of the week (while ironically looking for the latest news on the new corona virus -emerging diseases are a bit of an interest of mine)

So far it has killed 6 and 14 are officially declared to be infected. It seems to have first popped up mid February but since identified at the weekend the cases seem to be starting to pop up quite quickly.

From what I've read it's a low pathogen avian flu, which means that it doesn't tend to kill birds off, but it has aquired genes which are adapted to mammalian infection. (Flu viruses are great at swapping genes amongst themeselves) Yesterday the Chinese authorities said they have found it in pigeons in a market and so are closing down poultry markets in the area.

Some are linking it to the 14,00 pig deaths found in rivers in shanghai in mid march and indeed pigs can be a good carrier of some flu strains, but authorities say they haven't found any evidence of flu in the pigs though they still don't know what killed them.

WHO currently say there is no evidence of sustained human to human transmission. It could stay that way, lots of viruses don't really adapt properly to a species and fade out. On the very positive side, scientists are really alert to emerging viruses now and detect new ones very quickly. This means that alerts go up very quickly about diseases that fail to get hold in the human population. So hopefully it may well be the same with this virus.

Just me watching it then? Fair enough!

alcibiades Fri 05-Apr-13 20:58:18

I hadn't seen anything on the news about this, but I was probably looking in the wrong places. From what I understand (which isn't much) one of the problems with flu viruses is their ability to mutate and to cross over to other species. And then it depends on how good the recipient species' immune systems are in producing effective antibodies.

I think some of the problems in getting the public to take these sorts of issues seriously is that, as you say, sometimes outbreaks just fizzle out. Also, although I understand the naming of these flu viruses, calling them bird flu or swine flu makes them seem as though they're really only something to do with a duck or a pig getting a touch of the sniffles. And, of course, most cases of flu in humans are regarded as being not much more than a bad cold with a fever, so even when flu jabs are made available, the uptake isn't as good as it could be to prevent a pandemic. I recall when I was working as a secretary in a NHS hospital, that all staff were given the option of having a flu jab. Initially, I didn't bother, because I wasn't in one of the vulnerable groups - not young, not old, not immuno-compromised - until it was pointed out that I could be a carrier.

I think another problem is people in the West understanding how these viruses occur and how they get transmitted from animals to humans. One book I've got here says that between 1968 and 2004, China went from 5 million pigs to 508 million pigs, and from 12 million poultry to 13 billion poultry. Those are huge populations, where viruses could have a field day. But it's when those animals get to market that the crossover to humans can take place. Unlike in the West, most food animals are traditionally bought live in Asian markets. That possibly gets round the salmonella problem, but it does mean that the viruses have an amazingly good opportunistic way of jumping to humans.

There still seems to be some uncertainty about the initial origin of 1918 flu epidemic, but there's no uncertainty about the death toll.

This is a fascinating yet scary subject. Thanks, OYBBK, for raising this issue. If nothing else, it might prompt people to get a flu jab if they're offered one.

Yes, saw this earlier this week. Find it interesting. But I wouldn't get a flu jab.

Am off to google the corona virus though.

AnAirOfHope Fri 05-Apr-13 21:12:44

Im watching this and the messals outbrake and the TB that is resisant to antibiotics.

We had this go through the house - well quite a few of us www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2280716/Conjunctivitis-When-common-cold-ruin-eyesight-good.html
It was actually really interesting (although bizarre and really quite hideous) as I knew who we caught it from and could trace it back to who they caught it from etc.

(sorry Daily Mail link, but no benefit bashing or DM crap)

There is very little on the news at the moment, I think there are more immediate concerns for people....

A vaccine will be several months off. From what I've read they've started looking at the virus samples to find a suitable seed virus. As some of you will know flu viruses are very unstable and you can think of them as more like a virus swarm each subtly different. Once they select suitable candidates they need to be extensively tested and they need to find ones that grow well in eggs. Only then can they produce a vaccine that will take several months to grow in sufficient quantities. I think there are new techniques now that don't need eggs but I don't know how available that technology has become since the last pandemic.

The 1918 flu affected around 25% of the population and killed around 2.5% of those infected. with one of the hardest hit demographics being young men. Of course we have no idea how this one will go, there were huge fears at the beginning of pH1N1, the pandemic flu that swept the world in 2009 and it fortunately didn't pan out in the way feared and obviously most new flus don't.

Which book is it you are reading alci? Have you seen this article which whilst dives rather into speculation is nevertheless a thought provoking piece.

Jimjams, I wonder if that's what dd had recently. She looked like she had been thumped. Viruses are fascinating aren't they!

If you want to follow this then PFI are a good forum to watch as long as you bear in mind they are flu preppers and many have their 'we are all doomed' settings on maximum level. They are very good at ferreting out news articles.

This one was weird as it showed itself in different ways in each of us. We were all fascinated, waiting to see what happened. Although ds1's eye still isn't right - so that's not so good!

I've always found viruses fascinating tbh. Used to have a slightly sensationalist book about emergent ones in the days when ebola was hitting the headlines.

I hope your ds's eye sorts itself out soon.

Ebola, now that makes for fascinating reading!

Yes, I remember exploding nuns with ebola in the book (it was very sensationalist).

I think the remaining eye problems probably stem from the secondary bacterial infection he managed to develop.

There are 2 more cases reported so far today. There are said to be two family clusters which may indicate human to human transmission, or of course they have become sick from the same source.

Interesting things to note:

There is a large geographical spread of these cases over a short period of time which is interesting as so few cases overall have been reported. It's as if it emerged in several places at once. Even if it has been in an animal reservoir like pigeons for sometime, spreading silently, why did it suddenly emerge in humans in several places at once?

At the moment almost all of the cases have resulted in critical illness or death. Even the feared h5n1 'only' has a mortality rate of 60%. As i said before the 1918 flu had a mortality of around 2.5%. This means that at this point in time either a)this is an incredibly lethal flu or b)there are far more cases than being reported and most of them are mild.

When the h1n1 pandemic first started in 2009 in California, reports of severe illness and mortality were fairly alarming. As we know it settled down pretty quickly to resemble previous 'mild' pandemics. If this new virus does spread (and its still a big if) perhaps it will do the same.

alcibiades Sat 06-Apr-13 22:01:44

Thanks for those links, OYBBK. The book that I referred to isn't actually a book as such, it's a printed transcript of a lecture course on DVD called "Mysteries of the Microscopic World". Here's a direct link to that course, in case anyone is interested: www.thegreatcourses.co.uk/tgc/courses/course_detail.aspx?cid=1551

But they're not to everyone's taste, because they are lectures delivered mostly straight to camera in a studio, with some explanatory graphics. But, unlike TV documentaries, if it's a 30-minute lecture, it's 30 minutes of talking. I find that they do need watching several times because there's a lot of information which I don't always pick up on first or second time round. Another thing is that they're expensive, so I only buy them when they're on special offer. (And then, every month or so, I get another catalogue in the post, with different courses on special offer, and I'm all, like, ooh, must buy that one! So, I've got quite a few that are on my repeat viewing list.)

There are three lectures in that course devoted to the 1918 flu epidemic and, from memory, one of the difficulties that the scientists/medics at the time were having to grapple with was how did the disease appear in seemingly unconnected places in Europe and the USA. But that was probably the first time when a virus could possibly piggy-back on such fast dispersion as troop movements in the latter part of World War I.

The latest news is worrying, because it could either be isolated but coincidentally simultaneous outbreaks, which is a worry in itself, or it could be that there's a line of transmission they have yet to track down.

Oh those courses look fab.. I might well treat myself though when I've got some down time. I'll link to the book I'm re-reading on the 1918 flu tomorrow.

Not much new news other than the chinese are proposing to treat it with a new type of drug peramivir ( never heard of it!)

Laurie Garrett's new blog on the matter. I think I will be keeping a further eye out for her writing as she appears to have quite a clear eye on this subject.

The blog talks about why people would be reluctant to come forward and admit that they are unwell. It mentions the fear of unaffordable health care costs, which apparently happened during SARS, even though the Chinese government have said that healthcare for h7n9 will be free. I can understand this. What if they went to hospital, were put in isolation, only to find that it wasn't h7n9. A week in hospital costs the equivalent of an entire years salary there.

It also mentions fear of being put into isolation for long periods of time.

One (other) thing I'm finding a bit strange is that all the cases (perhaps bar one) became ill in feb or March. No one has been discovered to have sickened with the illness since WHO were notified at the end of March. Culling of birds didn't start until thursday 5th April, so it's not that the source of the infection was suddenly halted. I know viruses can be really strange, but this suggests to me that there is at the very least a time delay of info being released.

Hm sounds like a watch & wait for further data case. I suppose it could be mainly mild so people don't seek treatment (including for the reasons you've given)

While we're on a virus spotters thread does anyone know what happened to that new measles virus a few years ago (in India??? I think). I saw a few reports, then nothing.

Absolutely jimjams.

I missed that new measles virus, will have to do some digging on it at some point.

expatinscotland Sun 07-Apr-13 11:39:27

It's another virus.

TwllBach Sun 07-Apr-13 11:43:53

I saw this on the news this week as well. I read a really shite book by Tess Gerritsen about mutating viruses recently and it sparked a bit of an interest in me.

And this Then it all seemed to go silent.

Oh actually this is weird

There's this: www.raxa.com/node/229832#.UWFO845H2fQ 'Officially' recognised as mutating measles. But then it was changed to Nipah virus www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2525829/ (and there is one article in pubmed about this that I've found). This gives more info about Nipah www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs262/en/

Well I'm pleased to have got to the bottom of that, have been wondering what happened to that for years. And added another emergent new virus to the list grin

I'm going to have to have a really good read, thanks jimjams smile

Just 3 more cases today reported. Bit of a problem though it appears with the Chinese government claiming people are becoming directly infected from birds. The genetic sequences don't quite match between the human infections and the bird infections. Brief info here which you could infer means that the human cases have not been acquired directly from the birds that they have found. I don't really fully understand the science behind the genetics I think the main change that 'they' are concerned about is one that increases the virulence of the virus and also allows it to thrive in mammals (by lowering the temperature it likes to live at, avian flus are adapted to the higher temps of birds, mammalian flus are adapted to our lower temps)

Am hoping that a geneticist will wander by and help with this! Way beyond my knowledge base!

Oh I've heard of nipah! Not in any of my books though, so not sure where I've heard of it. I clearly need a new book!

It does look very new! And quite nasty.

I found a treasure trove of links on emerging diseases here but I'm actually after a new book.

And half the links don't work or are outdated. Oh well

ripsishere Wed 10-Apr-13 05:29:47

I am pretty concerned about it TBH. We are in Malaysia, I don't think there have been any cases here. Yet.
We live in a very student area, a lot of the students are from mainland China.
One of the children at DDs school, visited China a couple of months ago and came back with H1N1.

HollyMadison Wed 10-Apr-13 07:04:53

I'm keeping an eye on it too as I live in Singapore. It's a very long way from Shanghai but there is so much travel between here and China. It's big news in Singapore and the authorities work hard to try to protect Singapore as much as they can. Employees at DH's work have been asked to notify management if they are going to be traveling to China or HK (we were thinking of visiting Beijing next month but changed plans). I guess so they can make contingency plans if anyone gets ill.

A Chinese friend has just had some sort of smoked Beijing duck product confiscated at the airport on the way in to SG. Chinese people often bring back food when they go back to china but no idea why she thought that particular product was a good idea at the moment!

4pinkbabies Thu 11-Apr-13 06:06:45

We live in Shaghai. Every year at the same time there is an outbreak of a different variety. We have guidelines at school and from officials. I was on the metro last weekend and many people were wearing masks, then an old man got on and started shouting at everyone to take them off. We are avoiding the wet markets and are always careful about where we buy our food. We can never really relax here..there is always a crisis of some sort going on. I am more worried about Korea than this.

meditrina Thu 11-Apr-13 07:15:44

The bloody Govt have moved the highly informative JCVI website to the useless slimmed down gov.uk site, removed most of the archive and changed their downloads so my iPad doesn't do them any more. Ugh. Are they trying to hide information?

Or does anyone know if the lovely 'old' site still exists, or the level of info posted on it is ow posted elsewhere (maybe a .ac site?)

For outbreak monitoring used to be on there, plus full minutes of meetings on decision making about influenza vaccine policy for NHS.

Currently, the most recent minutes on anything are from October 2012 and there are non whatsoever from the flu sub committee.

Checking in from Hong Kong, where health authoruties have issued recommendations to step up precautionary measures such as sanitising door handles, buttons in lifts etc........at morebregular intervals.
We received leaflets through the post and we see a few more posters and sanitising solution dispensers in public buildings......

Nothing to loose sleep over, they do this regularly for example when there is an outbreak of HFM in kindergartens etc....
Like in Singapore its reassuring to see that health authorities here are quite pro-active and have specific levels of response that kick in quickly.

And everyone respects the guidelines. At the first sneeze they put on face masks. Am always amazed at how good even small children are compliant.

I id see live poultry at wanchai market this morning though.....So does not seems too serious just yet.

ripsishere Fri 12-Apr-13 05:12:27

No news about any cases in Malaysia and no advice about anything either.
I saw a man with a load of live chickens in boxes on the back of his motorbike.

4pink, i did wonder whether Korea would be shadowing things there.

I think we are up to 38 cases and 10 deaths. It is very evident that the news is being ,managed' as there are reported to be around 12 people being detained for spreading false rumours. At the moment it is said to still be just limited human-human with most infections coming animal-human. They still seem to be insisting it is birds, but it seems interesting that the virus seems to have genetic changes suggesting mammalian adaptation, so I think the argument that there has been a mammal host is still quite a strong one.

Another flu watch forum

Thank you to everyone who is posting from the region, it gives an insight that fascinating and informative. I think that since SARS HK have become very vigilant and it seems to be a bit of a 'first post' for viruses that have been brewing in China.

Meditrina, the irony of a government site called 'transparency' being shut down is stark!

Interesting FOI request meditrina. Looks like they might not publish them anymore confused

Oh dear. 48 cases reported, which if accurate is still a good sign that its not going human to human in general. Unfortunately the first case in Beijing has been reported:a 7 year old girl who's parents trade in poultry.

Up to 61 cases now and an interesting development, a boy across the road from the little girl in Beijing is reported to have tested positive even though he is currently asymptomatic.

Also some evidence that some of the tests are giving false negatives and its only a few days later when they do deep lung tests are they finding h7n9 so there could be lots more like the little boy ( conjecturing at this point!) who have it but are asymptomatic and perhaps testing negative. Perhaps this is a virus that for many causes no issues but for some unlucky ones severe illness. Pure speculation of course!

spacechimp Sun 14-Apr-13 22:53:24

Should the false negatives and asymptomatic case be seen as worrying for potential to spread or reassuring that severity might be less than seems the case when looking at numbers hospitalised? I guess maybe both. I'm quite concerned about this but not sure whether I'm right to be. Was initially not too worried as UK media reports reassuring but looking at updates on twitter from WHO, science journalists and others makes me wonder. I am not at all scientific but am interested in health related stuff, also have a tendency to worry. Kitten you seem well informed and logical - what do you think about situation as it is now, and as it might develop?

MasterOfTheYoniverse Mon 15-Apr-13 06:35:41

Quick update, in Hong Kong some kindergsrdens have sent home notices to keep ill children at home but there are no compulsory temperature checks.

I also went to visit a friend in hospital this morning and people come and go without any screening at all as would be the case should matters escalate.
My friend actually is being treated for a pulmonary problem and the Dr only advised him to avoid wet markets were live poultry is sold+ reassured him that tamiflu seems to effective.

So thinking you are likely to be quite safe in the UK.

Thanks Master smile good to get an update from the region! Unfortunately one of the 3 samples of flu virus that China have issued outside the country (why arent they releasing more?) has a tamiflu resistant gene in it.

spacechimp, I think you are right - both is the right answer. We certainly don't want a virus out there with such an apparent high fatality rate (14 deaths out of 62 reports but most of those having had to spend time in critical care). But if we have a novel flu virus spreading silently and only affecting some severely, whilst that looks good, it does give the virus more chance to re-assort (flu viruses like swapping genes with other strains of flu) and that makes it more unpredictable.

The good news is that it doesn't seem to have escaped the borders and HK and Taiwan have superb surveillance so we will know if it does escape pretty quickly.

China do appear to be asking for help from international experts: bloomberg report

I really wouldnt like to conjecture about what might happen, lots and lots of new viruses emerge each year and most stay confined to the region and then burn out or pootle away in the background. Its only down to technology that we have such a grasp on what is happening and its probably distorting our risk perception. It is a concern, and I've read that it is more concerning than h5n1, but we really just dont know.

I keep reminding myself that h1n1 first looked pretty horrific when it started in mexico, but the actual result was an overall very mild pandemic (as flu pandemics go)

spacechimp Mon 15-Apr-13 15:07:39

Thanks Kitten. Hadn't heard about the tamiflu resistant gene in one of the samples - that doesn't sound good. I've also read that there are more concerns about this than h5n1 because of the re-assortment possibilities and the fact that it has already adapted. What you say about technology making every little development seem like a massive deal makes complete sense and I think it's probably skewing my perception of risk to some extent....but, it is new and unpredictable, and it is spreading in the region. I know the experts don't know how it's going to work out, but it is reassuring that international experts are going to China in the next couple of days, and that HK and Taiwan are so good at surveillance.

I was just thinking about the start of h1n1 - was glued to BBC news channel and the beginnings in Mexico did look pretty horrible, but ended up being the most severe cases rather than the majority. I wasn't using twitter then, so can't compare. I was also thinking about SARS, and how that played out. Not sure that is at all comparable, but just trying to calm myself down. Do flu viruses emerge each year in this way? I guess that with this it is just a case of wait and see, unsettling though that is

They do, but the unique thing about this one is that an H7 has never been seen in humans before and that's one of the things that has people looking closely I think.

(ought to make it clear that I'm not a health professional, its just a rather strange interest of mine!)

MasterOfTheYoniverse Thu 18-Apr-13 11:47:37

here is the latest in the local press.
The asymptomatic little boy is a real worry sad

the schools have also started forwarding formal letters from the health authorities (the "surveillance and epidemic centre") to step up hygiene and completely stay away from wet markets.
I cant see that they have banned the trade of live birds yet but its been very hotly debated.

Thank you for the update Yoni, very interesting. I don't suppose they would issue that advice lightly.

Since that article was written we are up to 88 reported cases and 17 deaths. It's still not growing (and hopefully) wont in a way that suggests efficient human to human transmission. There does seem to have been a family cluster of 6 but that of course could mean they were all exposed to the same source of infection.

However one concern is that they still don't know what is the natural host. Forty percent of cases are reported not to have had contact with poultry and despite the huge number of avian samples that have been taken very few cases of infections in birds have been found relatively. And they don't share the exact gene pattern as the human infections, there is that switch in there of a gene that shows it has adapted to mammals.

Who knows which way this will go - hopefully it will just vanish after this season and end up a biological curiousity but from what I've seen I can understand why the experts are becoming concerned.

First case has been discovered in Taiwan in a traveller. Worryingly he tested negative twice before testing positive, showing how unreliable the tests are. No reported interactions with any birds.

Still very few detections of infection in birds despite intensive investigations.

China report 109 infections and 22 deaths.

Meglet Wed 24-Apr-13 21:30:22

I preferred it when you were talking about snow oybbk <<dons face mask and necks vitamins>>

Looks like we have creative news reports.

Taiwanese version chap didn't seem to go to hospital for a few days after returning to Taiwan.

Chinese report infers he was intercepted at the airport.

Someone appears to be muddled!

So did I Meglet, this is turning from fascinating to just a little more concerning.

brief Independent article.

Also 3 hospital workers who had contact with chap have developed respitory symptoms. Could be a coincidence.

MousyMouse Wed 24-Apr-13 21:53:11

it's very fascinating and scary.
let's just hope it's a bit like the swine flu in 2009, which started pretty impressive but luckily for most fizzled out.

MousyMouse Wed 24-Apr-13 21:54:04

sorry, hit post too soon.

...fizzled out and is now part of the normal seasonal flu.

I think that would be the best scenario as it would give the majority of people some immunity from future versions of it.

reastie Mon 29-Apr-13 06:45:08

Have just spotted this thread. Marking place to read later, very interesting reading. I'm always telling DH that I think humans will at some point be all but wiped out by an infectious disease which we cannot control he thinks I'm mad

The numbers being released aren't making much sense now, they've really dipped but it has spread to new provinces (including Hunan, which doesn't really fit in with the migratory bird pattern quite so well unless I'm misunderstanding things)

They've found some h7 in poultry in Hong Kong too, but they haven't released which type of h7 it is, so it may not be related.

A few more sequences released, showing human adaptation. A couple of them share a gene common to human seasonal flu and hasn't been found in any of the avian sequences.

I wonder if things are going to get quieter now as we move out of flu season (h1n1 did not though it paused in the UK during the summer holidays)

scaevola Wed 01-May-13 17:51:55

While things have gone fairly quiet on the flu virus, indicating its still not really going human to human, unfortunately the new corona virus appears to becoming more successful. news report

It seems that the second man in France shared a hospital room with the first chap in France. Now why would you not isolate a patient with a novel virus?

PseudoBadger Sun 12-May-13 22:43:13

I saw this about the corona virus today sad

cafetea Mon 13-May-13 10:21:40

this is really worrying. It only people would wash their hands and not cough and sneeze right out

Well, the consolation is that it clearly is not spreading very efficiently at all, so fingers crossed that it ends up at evolutionary dead end and vanishes.

k2togm1 Mon 13-May-13 22:28:20

Watching with interest.

Can't believe you guys know so much about viruses AND bird migration routes!

[waves to reastie, hello!]

google can be a wonderful learning tool grin

Whilst the news on h7n9 remains quiet, the new coronavirus is actually starting to look alarming. It's been renamed mers-CoV (middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus) a few cases have been escaping recently. Notably now a chap who had been to Jordan is now hospitalised in Florence with it after visiting his son in Jordan who appeared to be suffering from an unspecified flu. his two year old niece and a colleague appear to have contracted it from him in Italy showing human to human infection that maybe classified as sustained. They are tracing contacts.

In my utter laymans opinion, there must be cases that are going undiagnosed. 30 out of the 50 clinically diagnosed infections (as of the 31st) have died but cases have been exported to the UK, Italy, France, Germany and Tunisia.

CatherineofMumbles Sun 02-Jun-13 09:44:49

it has regularly been to the leading story on the main French TV news, where there have been a few cases in a hospital in the north of the country - did surprise me there was not mention of it here.

infamouspoo Sun 02-Jun-13 09:48:01

marking place with some worry

Bowlersarm Sun 02-Jun-13 09:56:17

What are the implications? That it is a killer? Or that it is spreading quickly?

At the moment, the official CFR (case fatality rate) is 60% with excellent hospital care. Of course, if, as seems rather likely, there are a lot of milder undiagnosed cases then the CFR will come down markedly.

What is somewhat concerning is the possibility that other severe cases may be not being reported. Saudi seem to be rather defensive, saying that they are not the focus of the disease outbreak (which reported numbers wise they are with around 80% of the cases) and cases only seem to be being concentrated there because other countries arent bothering to look for it - which frankly I dont think is the case.

Ramadan is in July and the estimated number of pilgrims to visit Saudi then is one-two million people. So we have to hope that Saudi are really being completely transparent about this.

It may well die out completely, viruses can be very unpredictable and can vanish as quickly as they first appeared. This is a novel virus in humans, we just dont know what will happen, so we have to be optimistic that this is another storm in a tea cup.

If you want to follow it for yourself then
flutrackers is great for ferreting out news reports in a mostly responsible and factual way.

For the official line world health organisation has lots of info and regular bulletins.

Now here's a very odd or interesting news report on the new coronavirus:
needs google translate

It suggests theyve found 10 aysmptomatic cases who are contacts of the above chap from Florence. Big departure from what has been found officially so far. It could perhaps mean one of a few things:

1)They've not developed symptoms yet (WHO are revising the expected incubation to be up to 12 days and this chap was only hospitalised Saturday) but it seems bizarre as it says they arent being isolated!?

2)It has mutated to a much less deadly form

3)It is spreading silently in most cases and and for some reason just a few are susceptible.

4)???

If it's 1)Its bad news. Signs of a superspreader perhaps. If it is 2) That is splendid if it is 3) then who knows what will happen?

Of course the report could be entirely wrong and it's none of the above! It doesnt appear to have made it out into the press widely yet. If its true, then it is a very very interesting development.

harbinger Mon 03-Jun-13 21:26:03

The coronavirus is probably the one to be more worried about.

H7n9 will probably be contained.

There was an article in the Sunday Times about the bird flu. (pay wall).

Look up Eric Worrall and Yannick Gardin.

I think you are right harbinger.

Flu trackers has a little speculation that the tests employed by te Italians may be picking up a different similar virus and therefore it would be a false positive.

harbinger Mon 03-Jun-13 21:36:19

Have they picked up corona ?

Some variation of it Harbinger, though why they could get it with nasal swabs when many of the symptomatic cases needed to take samples from the lungs seems to be a little curious to me.

Def something very odd going on, WHO lab is testing those cases and has come up with them as being negatives and there's a pro-med article blaming in on rumours. So I think I would discount them - probably.

harbinger Wed 05-Jun-13 18:57:34

Hmmmmm. Let's see..........

they are rapidly back pedalling on it! But you are right, i is very hard to know what is true and what will happen.

harbinger Wed 05-Jun-13 20:36:13

Another one in Saudi. See CIDRAP

I've not looked at CIDRAP before. Cool site!

harbinger Wed 05-Jun-13 21:39:21

Thought that would get you interested. What do you make of it?

Italy, ha

It is interesting in how sporadic the cases still appear to be in Saudi. They've still not discovered the reservoir, so where is it coming from?

harbinger Mon 10-Jun-13 22:31:26

When's the Hajj?

October, but there will be a big influx of pilgrims next month during Ramadan.

harbinger Mon 10-Jun-13 23:00:05

That's what I thought.

harbinger Mon 10-Jun-13 23:11:12

I've just come back from an East Midland's town that is now over 50% non white.

The rich are rich.Poor are poor.White are white.

The peeps in the Mercs have no integration. Then....

Is there (how much) any reading between the lines.

harbinger Mon 10-Jun-13 23:13:03

And a huge influx back after. Joy of joys.

meditrina Thu 04-Jul-13 10:52:59

BBC article on the death of a patient in UK from corona virus

It says he was flown here from Qatar last September - so it seems he did not catch it here. But that's a very long time for an illness to remain so severe.

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