Ireland and Brexit

[hollyisalovelyname]

Enda Kenny's treatment by Angela Merkel re Brexit and our special relationship with the UK showed our loss of sovreignity.
She slapped him down, pronto.
So that's the reward we get for our obedience to the austere terms laid down for us during the economic crisis. For the suffering by many in the last few years.
Why has Germany been allowed to dictate to other countries?
The events of the mid part of the last century seems to have been forgotten.
How quickly Germany has regained power.

[RortyCrankle]

Totally unacceptable and spot on re Merkel and Germany - any chance of an Irexit do you think?

[Heratnumber7]

One of the many reasons I voted leave.

[MagnifiMad]

Can someone direct me to a link to what happened?

I don't think Irexit could ever be seriously considered at all.

Ugh- more impending sense of doom news.

[AnneElliott]

What was it that Ireland wanted? I've googled but can only find reports saying Ireland can't have special treatment, but no mention of what they asked for?

[hollyisalovelyname]

Because of the border with Northern Ireland ( or lack of border because of EU) and the fact that UK and Ireland are huge trading partners plus historical links/ factors, Enda Kenny tried to get some kind of special deal from Europe on the border and trade tariffs.
However Angela said No.
So the Germans rule he roost.
Funny that.
I thought the European Union was made up of separate democratic states.
Doh.
Silly me.

[supersoftcuddlytoys]

The EU is Germany OP. EU countries get what is in Germany's best interest.

[CorkieD]

Northen Ireland voted to remain. If Brexit resulted in a breakdown of the NI peace process, it would be very worrrying.

The nightmare scenario would a return to an era of bombs in Belfast, London, etc.

[LokisUnderpants]

I would vote to leave in an Irexit referendum. The EU is a corrupted institution that's all for the banks. Ireland shouldered 42%.... FORTY FUCKING TWO percent of the TOTAL EU debt during the crisis. We're a tiny country for fuck sake. We're a bunch of soft bastards that need to stand up for once and for all.

[CorkieD]

A recent poll in Ireland showed 80+% in favour of remaining.

A vote to leave the EU would be handing power back to Westminster as the UK would become such a dominant trading partner.

[AnneElliott]

People keep saying that NI voted to remain, but I understand the split was 56/44? Therefore 44% of voters in NI voted to leave?

Probably not for this thread, but if 44% of NI voters didn't see an issue with the border with ROI then I'm not sure why leave voters in E&W get berated for not considering it? Surely NI voters are more knowledgeable of those issues than E&W residents?

I can see why Ireland would want those assurances. I did think the EU might be more conciliatory to remaining States after the Brexit vote.

[ScarletForYa]

Fucking hell, thanks Merkel. We took our medicine like good boys and girls, didn't burn any bondholders. Taxpayer sucked it up. Really?

REALLY?

[geekaMaxima]

It was hardly unreasonable treatment by Merkel

Kenny apparently asked for guarantees of special status for movement between Ireland and UK because of the common travel area and for trade because of no good reason really. Merkel said she couldn't guarantee anything because it wasn't clear yet what the UK even wanted, and acknowledged that the common travel area has been in place a long time and predates the EU.

Nothing else could have been reasonably expected at this stage. Nobody hands out guarantees before (or even after) negotiations start.

However, many of the Irish papers have been painting it as a monumental failure by Kenny because his position as Taoiseach is so insecure and anything is used as a stick to beat him. In this case, it's a domestic spin on international diplomacy that's not really accurate.

[ScarletForYa]

Ok, if she stiffs us though, there'll be a problem.

[CorkieD]

ScarlettForYa, it won't be down Angela Merkel. It will be down to Theresa May.

Consider yourself stiffed.

Unless Nicola Sturgeon can pull a rabbit out of the hat?

[cdtaylornats]

Corkie don't be fooled by Sturgeon, all she wants is to break Scotland from the UK.

[CorkieD]

The clearly stated goal of the SNP is Scottish independence. There is no doubt Sturgeon want to break Scotland from the UK.

[purplevase4]

acknowledged that the common travel area has been in place a long time and predates the EU

this being the key point - and the Isle of Man and Channel Islands are in the CTA - and are not in the EU. There are anomalies all over the EU - this would just be one of them.

[CorkieD]

Oh dear!

The Brexit minister David Davis thinks the Republic of Ireland is part of the UK:

www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/07/brexit-minister-david-davis-thinks-republic-ireland-part-uk

[cdtaylornats]

He is right - it is an internal border within the CTA. The New Statesman is maintaining its low regard for facts.

[Rainbunny]

Well Sturgeon is now saying that she would consider a 2017 Scottish referendum if the Brexit talks don't go the way she wishes for Scotland. Well the EU leaders have firmly told Sturgeon that Scotland would have to apply for EU membership from scratch if Scotland leaves the union and it would take years, not to mention that Scotland's economy is not great right now so trying to go it alone while it tries to join the EU without financial input from the UK would be rough I imagine.

Does Sturgeon seriously think that threatening to call a referendum will sway May to let Sturgeon influence Brexit talks more in Scotland's favour? I doubt May is scared of a Scottish referendum.

[geekaMaxima]

Well the EU leaders have firmly told Sturgeon that Scotland would have to apply for EU membership from scratch if Scotland leaves the union

No they didn't. The Council of Europe (or any other similar body with authority) has said no such thing. The most that happened was that the French and Spanish leaders on the Council said they were against dealing with Scotland separately (and prior) to the UK as a whole. When Sturgeon turned up in Brussels shortly after the referendum, she did speak to Junkers and several other people about Scotland's options. It was all very early diplomatic hand-waving, and nobody expected any guarantees or promises for Scotland at that stage.

It's entirely new territory how Scotland should be treated in the EU, and whether it will inherit the position formerly occupied by the UK, negotiate an expedited membership agreement that amends the UK's former position, or negotiate from scratch as if the UK position was unrelated to that of Scotland. Nobody has decided anything yet, least of all the EU, but there are a lot of lawyers on all sides working through the possibilities now.

[Rainbunny]

Sorry but it would be years if Scotland even has another referendum and votes to leave before they could even apply to join the EU. These articles give a decent summary of issues:

fortune.com/2016/06/29/eu-scotland-britain/

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/25/brexit-vote-scotland-out-uk-scottish-independence

I don't think May is worried.

[Heratnumber7]

Scotland would have to apply to the UN first to be recognised as a nation before it can apply to join the EU.

Sturgeon is clutching at straws. She's on about Scotland remaining part of the UK now, and being the only part of the UK in the EU. Bonkers.

What currency would they even use? Sterling or the Euro? Or some other currency?

[Heratnumber7]

This is interesting
^MORE
Sudan's president Omar Hassan al-Bashir has announced that, after two civil wars, the southern region of Sudan will separate from the north on July 9. What must the new Republic of South Sudan do to establish itself as a country, and how will it become the United Nations' 193rd member state?

In three easy steps, here's how to become an independent country:

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Step 1 Declare independence
To establish a new country, the country must first satisfy the international laws rules that all free countries generally acknowledge and follow set forth by the Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States, adopted in 1933.

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The Montevideo Convention requires that a country must declare its intentions, which Southern Sudan did when a January referendum let the world know that people in the region plan to secede from its northern counterpart this summer. New countries are also required to exist within a clearly defined territory, and South Sudan's ongoing dispute with Northern Sudan over the two nations' official boundaries could hamper that process.

Another requirement that the country have a permanent population necessitates that Southern Sudan negotiate the issues of citizenship and residency, as millions of southerners work in the north and vice versa.

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South Sudan has already met the requirement that the new country must have a government , with Sudan's current vice president Salva Kiir Mayardit already elected to serve as South Sudan's first president. The requirement that the country must be able to enter into relations with other sovereign states also appears to be met, as the U.S. has already set up a diplomatic mission in Sudan's southern capital, Juba.

Step 2 Gain recognition

In order to be legitimate, a new country must be recognized by existing states within the international community. Each existing state bestows recognition at its own discretion, and several entities (including Taiwan, Palestine and Kosovo) are recognized as legitimate states by some countries, but not by others. In the U.S., the decision to grant a country recognition is made by the president, and President Barack Obama declared on Feb. 2 that the U.S. will recognize southern Sudan as a new, independent country in July. Experts are optimistic that other countries will recognize the Republic of South Sudan.

"Sudan is almost certain to be guaranteed recognition," Alexander J. Motyl, a political science professor at Rutgers University-Newark and the author of "Imperial Ends: The Decline, Collapse, and Revival of Empires" (Columbia University Press, 2001), told Life's Little Mysteries. "The referendum was recognized by the international community and the U.S. in particular, and it's generally recognized as having been the victim of genocide. Hence: their grievance and the legal procedure are both considered legitimate."

Step 3 Join the United Nations

The United Nations asserts that, because it itself is not a country, it does not possess any authority to recognize a state or government . But being admitted into the U.N. goes a long way toward a new country becoming recognized by the international community.

In order to apply for U.N. membership, the aspiring country first needs to send an application letter, along with a declaration that it will follow the United Nations charter, to U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. The application is then passed along to the Security Council, where it must get the affirmative votes of at least nine of the 15-member Council. If any of the council's five permanent members (China, France, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the U.S.) vote against the country, the application does not go forward.^

The UK would have to vote to approve Scotland's application to be recognised as a state, but the UK wouldn't exist the minute the application was approved. So would the approval be valid?

[geekaMaxima]

Scotland would have to apply to the UN first to be recognised as a nation before it can apply to join the EU.

No, UN recognition is not necessary for EU membership. They're entirely different kettles of fish.

In reality, if Scotland did make a successful bid for independence, it would apply for UN recognition as a matter of course. Recognition only takes a majority vote in the general assembly, so the UK wouldn't have to vote in favour if the UK's status in the UN was still in doubt. Or it could veto approval, but possibly not if its status in the UN was still in doubt. Either way, recognition isn't a a condition of EU membership.

As I said earlier, it's totally unclear right now under what basis Scotland could get EU membership in its own right. There are far too many unknowns, but the UN question isn't a major stumbling block.