Does Frau Merkel actualy think before she...

[ProfessorPreciseaBug]

..Opens her mouth?

First we had the "hey everyone you can come and live in Germany" idea... and the inevetable rush to the beaches from half of Syria adding to the refugee problem.

Then yesteday she is saying the Uk will have a difficult time negotiating a trade deal if we leave the EU.

I do wonder if she has thought how the boards of Mercedes, VW, BMW, Meile, Karcher, Bose, Bosch, Krupp and dozens more top German firms who contribute to the German exchequer will react when she tells them access to the fifth biggest economy in the world has been curtailed by her political posturing?

[DoctorTwo]

Well, she has to say that, it's the EU position. Also, with us out of the EU we can't be forced to help pay up when the Euro goes tits up.
Seeing as the European Commission is run by and for corporate interests I can't see how or why trade agreements can't or won't be made quickly, as if tariffs are imposed it makes those new cars/vacuum cleaners/coffee machines more expensive. And in a consumer led economy that can't be allowed to happen...

[Mistigri]

Well, she has to say that, it's the EU position.

It's not an EU position: it's the reality of making a trade agreement with a more powerful partner (the EU economy is much bigger than the UK economy) when the unanimous agreement of all 27 remaining EU members will be required.

Germany as a country, and Merkel as a leader, might well have more to lose than other EU countries, but that's irrelevant, because Germany cannot impose a trade deal without the consent of 26 other EU states who will all be pursuing their own national interests.

[celeste83]

The EU are beginning to realise the threat of the UK leaving is very real, and the knock on effects of one of the big players will be huge upon both Germany and the EU project itself. The likes of Germany and France would need to fill the financial input that the UK contributes to the EU and it would also give impetise for other countries to hold similar referendums. I honestly believe if the UK votes leave then the EU would be forced to come back to bring the UK back to the table and offer the UK more concessions to remain and there would be a second referendum.

[ProfessorPreciseaBug]

Please don't faint ... but I actualy do agree with "Dave".

We are better off as part of a reformed Europe... with the emphasis on reformed. Dave failed to get any reforms worth a wank which is why I consider we need to leave.

I think Celeste has a very good insight in the situation if we leave. We can expect threats and bullying to stay over the eext few weeks.

[celeste83]

yikes so many typos on my last post lol.

The EU are beginning to realise the threat of the UK leaving is very real, and the knock on effects of one of the big players leaving will be huge upon both Germany and the EU project itself. The likes of Germany and France would need to fill the financial input that the UK contributes to the EU and it would also give impetuse for other countries to hold similar referendums. I honestly believe if the UK votes leave then the EU would be forced to bring the UK back to the table and offer the UK more concessions to remain and there would be a second referendum.

[Bolograph]

If Britain votes to leave, France won't be far behind: the current government is managing to piss off both the left and the right, the electoral implications of the November attacks haven't yet been seen and the Front Nationale will do extremely well (especally as Le Pen junior isn't quite the swivel-eyed holocaust denying lunatic her father is, although she is in the end Katie Hopkins with better tailoring). It was the French rejection of the EU Constitution than scuppered it, and there is surprisingly little love for the EU in France outside Paris (see also the EU in the UK outside London).

As a fervent remainer, I don't say this with any pleasure, you understand.

[prh47bridge]

*I do wonder if she has thought how the boards of Mercedes..."

I doubt that is a particularly big consideration for Merkel and other EU leaders. They will want to make sure that no-one else leaves so it will be in their interests to make it as difficult as possible for the UK if we vote to leave.

[Mistigri]

I doubt that is a particularly big consideration for Merkel and other EU leaders. They will want to make sure that no-one else leaves so it will be in their interests to make it as difficult as possible for the UK if we vote to leave.

There will be two factors governing the EU's behaviour towards the UK post-brexit:

• the collective interest of the EU as a group - and I agree with the statement above that the collective interest of the EU as a bloc is to discourage further exits by playing hardball
  

• the national interests of individual member states, which will obviously be differ between countries, Some of these states may indeed have an interest in making a favourable agreement with the UK; others may feel that it's in their national interests to make things difficult. Ultimately, no agreement can be done without the agreement of all remaining member states.

[Bolograph]

others may feel that it's in their national interests to make things difficult

Can anyone think of a country of any particular economic power that would think that making things difficult for trade with the 5th largest economy in the world was in its national interest? This is a prisoners' dilemma, tragedy of the commons thing: so long as all the EU countries hang together they might possibly get away with it with their voters, but the moment one country defects, the whole thing comes tumbling down.

Firstly, the tit for tat stuff is asymmetric. Suppose Poland and Romania were co-erced into playing hardball over freedom of movement. OK, say the UK government, all your citizens can fuck off: as of Monday morning, it will be illegal to employ a Polish or Romanian citizen without a Tier 2 visa, and all benefits, tax credits and access to schools and the NHS will cease. Planes leave from Stansted, don't let the door hit you on the way out. What's their response? That the vast coterie of UK expats living in Poland and Romania have to leave? All ten thousand or them, or so? What's the ratio, a hundred to one?

Similarly, suppose Germany plays hard ball and makes access to German markets difficult. OK, no problem: we'll remove all tariffs on Japanese cars and sell them in the UK at global prices and we'll make the same offer to any European country that fancies it, so if France fancies being a bit more understanding, lots of sales for Renault even if the electrics are still manky. We would simply approach individual countries and offer them individual deals, and if they want to refuse them for the good of the collective EU, we'll simply tell the world and watch them deal with their voters.

Secondly, it's hard to think of an EU government right now that has any love for the EU, aside possibly for Germany and even then the voters are in open rebellion on it. If an EU nation says "OK, we'll torch a few bits of our economy to take revenge on Britain and pour encourager les autres", what is the effect of that going to be on their local electorate? It'll get Le Pen into office in France, for sure, and then things really start to unravel.

Again, for clarity, I'm a fervent remainer. It's just that I despair at how hopeless my companions' arguments are.

[lljkk]

Angela Merkel is brilliant. I admire her hugely.
There was no political posturing.
World leaders are not supposed to shy away from having an opinion.
The more absurd things posted about this referendum the more confident I feel about my own vote (going into the post today! :) ).

[Ionlyusethisnameforthis]

It's 'doktor' merkel - if you're going to the trouble of using the German title, might as refer to her correctly .... Professor.

[Equiem89]

I have friends in Germany. They want out of the EU and hate Merkel

[ProfessorPreciseaBug]

For which I humbly offer my apologies. ..
But I still wonder..

[Mistigri]

Again, for clarity, I'm a fervent remainer. It's just that I despair at how hopeless my companions' arguments are.

It's not an argument for or against remaining or leaving. It's just a rational expectation: that countries will seek to maximise their own interests in a way that does not necessarily lead to the best outcome. It's a well known economic problem and it's one of the arguments in favour of free trade agreements and single markets.

You and I can talk all day about the tragedy of the commons and the dangers of isolationism and self-interest, but it won't change any minds. Isolationism and nationalism are 2016's opiate of the masses, hence the rise of Trump and Ukip and the EU nationalist right.

[Mistigri]

Similarly, suppose Germany plays hard ball and makes access to German markets difficult. OK, no problem: we'll remove all tariffs on Japanese cars and sell them in the UK at global prices and we'll make the same offer to any European country that fancies it, so if France fancies being a bit more understanding, lots of sales for Renault even if the electrics are still manky. We would simply approach individual countries and offer them individual deals, and if they want to refuse them for the good of the collective EU, we'll simply tell the world and watch them deal with their voters.

None of this is going to happen: even under WTO rules you can't just randomly remove tariffs for your pals unless you have a formal trade agreement. And france cannot negotiate a unilateral trade deal with the UK without leaving the EU.

[ProfessorPreciseaBug]

Come to tha Germany can't negotiate a unilateral trade deal with the UK to allow German industry access to the UK market.

So Dr (see I got it right this time) Merkle will be the one explaining why Mercedes, BMW VW and all the rest are having difficulty selling their goods in the fifth bigest market in tne world.. Somehow I can't see that as being popular with the powerful interests of the EU's biggest companies.

[Madbengalmum]

Me neither professor, a rather large market share they stand to loose!

[DrasticAction]

Its bonkers PROF, bonkers,she is bonkers.

[STIDW]

Angela Merkel is more astute than some people think. She opened the door to migrants because of growing tensions in the Balkans & to prevent a humanitarian disaster as winter crept in. Once migrants were admitted they could be accommodated, their asylum applications assessed & if asylum wasn't granted their removal processed. Typically around 60% of asylum applications are unsuccessful.

We don't know what would have happened if the doors hadn't been open so it isn't possible to judge whether it was the lesser evil or not.



Proportionally our exports to the EU are 13% of our economy, while their exports to us are only 3% of their economy. So, the UK would be the big losers from a trade war. We need them more than they need us. That is particularly true because the UK's most success is trading in services & other trading blocks only trade goods.

[ChardonnayKnickertonSmythe]

Germany as a country, and Merkel as a leader, might well have more to lose than other EU countries, but that's irrelevant, because Germany cannot impose a trade deal without the consent of 26 other EU states who will all be pursuing their own national interests.

And that's what's wrong with Europe.
We have 26 states with different interests and development fighting for their own interests while pretending it's all about a united strong Europe.

[lljkk]

Germany's population is ageing fast & the influx of young immigrants was very good for the economy (future people to pay the pensions). UK has a much younger age pyramid.

[Bolograph]

And france cannot negotiate a unilateral trade deal with the UK without leaving the EU.

How long do you think a Le pen France stays in the EU post Brexit?

[Mistigri]

How long do you think a Le pen France stays in the EU post Brexit?

How much do you know about French politics? The recent regional elections tell you what happens when the FN is matched against either of the two major parties in a two-way race.

[DrasticAction]

But the migrants Merkel has let in, are from north african countries, not purely those fleeing war.

They also have few skills, so how are they going to pay for the older germans pensions?


The mind boggles?! They are also causing huge social problems, and the people of Germany are voting against Merkels party and there is a lot of un rest there at the moment.

[DrasticAction]

ST

the influx was so rapid there was no way of knowing who was from where or anything, letters were written from these offices begging Merkel to stop the influx, there was nothing in place to deal with it.


You make it sound like a well ogranised properly controlled situation, it was far from that