Visa-Free travel for Turkish Nationals is looking like a reality now, according to Der Spiegel. Does this impact your thoughts on Brexit?

[Rainbunny]

I have been continuously on the fence about the referendum, perhaps most recently I would vote to stay. Everytime I think I have come to a decision though, I read something new that concerns me and puts me straight back on the fence. Today I read an article in Der Spiegel that alarmed me. It looks like the EU (well, let's be honest - Merkel) may well grant visa-free travel to Turkish citizens despite the fact that Turkey won't meet EU conditions (including the fact that their passports and paperwork are not up to EU standards - so fraud will be a VERY REAL issue.)

It has come down to this apparently, Erdogan get's visa-free travel or he will sink the refugee deal. Simple as that. Which way do think the EU (Merkel) will go? I'm not optimistic. Honestly, does this not concern you regarding our future in the EU?

"...Gareth Jenkins, a prominent British expert on Turkey, believes that a substantial number of Turks would come to Europe and either apply for asylum or disappear into the underground economy, especially in Germany and the Netherlands, where so many Turks have relatives. There are already 400,000 internally displaced refugees within the Kurdish regions of Turkey as a result of the civil war-like conditions there. Many are dirt poor, Jenkins says, "but whether by finding it themselves or borrowing it from others, even they would be able to find enough money to get a passport and pay the €€70 to €€80 it costs for a one-way flight on a budget airline from Turkey to Germany..."

www.spiegel.de/international/europe/europe-at-pains-over-visa-free-travel-for-turks-a-1090040.html

[lljkk]

Merkel doesn't make decisions for EU.
Visa free Doesn't that seem that different from current rules.

I presume the Turkish feel just as fond & proud of their country as anybody else & would only come over to Europe in large numbers if the Syrian war spilled over quite badly.

[NaffOffMartha]

Surely not needing a visa is not the same as not needing a return ticket/proof of funds/etc etc.

I don't need a visa to enter the UK/Eire or any other EU countries, but whenever I do I am quizzed (usually v briefly) on the purpose of my visit and how long I am staying. It's not the same as being from the EU and essentially being waved through.

I agree that it makes overstaying easier than when a visa is required, but I don't know that it's quite the carte blanche to emigrate that they're making out.

[STIDW]

Visa liberalisation means replacing easily forged visas with more secure machine readable passports for short term travel in the Schengen area.

... Turkish citizens to travel without a visa for short stays of 90 days within any 180-day period for business, touristic or family purposes, in the Schengen area.

europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-16-582_en.htm

UK isn't in Schengen so it doesn't affect us. Turks will still need visas to travel here.

[MoggyP]

A yes vote isn't just as yes for EU as it is now, it is also yes to all future permutations.

And none of us have crystal balls, that also means a level of committing to the unknown. And that could include Turkish accession, or at least increasingly favourable terms.

[lljkk]

Future is always unknown, either way.

[STIDW]

that could include Turkish accession

And pigs might fly

Exceedingly unlikely Turkey will accede for many years to come, if ever. It first applied for EU membership in 1987 & under the Copenhagen Agreement countries must complete 33 of 35 policy chapters. That means there are standards to be met on justice & democracy & Turkey has only provisionally completed one chapter. Even if/when Turkey completes the other chapters there is the veto which means all the existing EU states must unanimously agree to it's membership before it can join.

[MoggyP]

Of course. But some of the stay campaign seems to be using the line that it's an unknown future only if UK exits. And it's not that clear cut, especially with the prospect of expedited Turkish deals.

[STIDW]

especially with the prospect of expedited Turkish deals

Contary to reports in some sections of the media fast tracking was only agreed to the "readmission" of migrants coming from Turkey back there & visa liberalisation. IT doesn't apply to accession.

[ProfessorPreciseaBug]

Merkle has a big problem having told the world they can all come to Gremany. She needs Turkey help solve the problem she caused.

She was irresponsible to have said what she did... and she is Chancellor of one of the major players in Europe. Why do we want to be part of this?

[scaryteacher]

There's also visa liberalisation for Ukraine on the cards, and that alarms me too. I have always disliked the EU, and have violent arguments with mil about it over the past 30 years, so would have been voting out anyway; but it seems to me that the mistakes are coming thick and fast. Add the next round of the fast approaching Greek crisis (again), plus the inability for a coherent strategy to deal with the migrants; the Visegrad group digging their heels in over this, the EU interfering in Polish internal affairs, and Orban making his stance, and the whole thing is a busted flush. If it were just trade, as per the EEC, then fine, but the EU has morphed into an unaccountable behemoth, run by fanatical idealists who exist cocooned in the Brussels bubble, and which is taking to itself the powers of empire.

[Limer]

The prospect of Turkey (and possibly Ukraine) getting visa-free travel only serves to reinforce my intention to vote LEAVE. Any Turk can then get into the EU without a visa, and then it's childs play to get a fake Romanian passport and move to the UK.

Merkel wants to build as big an anti-Russian bloc as she can - hence wanting Turkey, Ukraine and the rest to join the EU. I can understand her reasons for this, but what's in Germany's interests isn't always in the UK's interests. Scaryteacher sums it up perfectly.

[BoogieTime]

In 100 years' time history will look back on this period as essentially when civilisation ended. I really fear for the future.

[DoltFromTheBlue]

I have no words for the crashing ignorance displayed in the posts above. I know a great number of Turks that I would be honoured to have as a neighbour. They are honourable, hard-working and humble. Is the UK aiming to be the Union of tinpot ignorants or something? Sounds like it is dangerously on track

[Limer]

Dolt

What's your top limit on EU immigration per year? It's already well into six figures, how high would you let it go? How do you propose to fund the additional housing, schools, hospitals, infrastructure? There are millions of people already planning to move to the UK, you want to open that up to tens of millions more? Sadly it's not possible to filter out the dishonourable applicants, they wouldn't all be as honourable as the ones you know.

[BoogieTime]

Bleeding hearts don't have answers for those kinds of questions Limer

[AlpacaLypse]

The EU as it is now is already broken, and doesn't have the political structure needed to fix itself.

I've said this on a couple of other threads, but I will repeat it here. The EU is a train that is inexorably running away. We have the opportunity to jump off it now, and should get away with cuts and bruises. Or we can sit on it and wait for it to crash.

At least with just cuts and bruises we will still be around to help our friends in Europe afterwards, rather than laying in the wreckage wailing for help with the rest of them.

[scaryteacher]

Dolt....it's not about honourable or not, it's about volume, it's about the countries bordering Turkey and the routes that can be used by jihadists. It is about assimilation and integration as well, and we saw from the Paris and Brussels bombings how well that is going.

There is a much bigger picture here than you and I knowing some nice Turkish families.

[CoteDAzur]

"grant visa-free travel to Turkish citizens despite the fact that Turkey won't meet EU conditions (including the fact that their passports and paperwork are not up to EU standards - so fraud will be a VERY REAL issue.)"

OP - I am guessing that you have not seen a Turkish passport in the past 5 years or so. They are indeed issued according to EU standards.

"Any Turk can then get into the EU without a visa, and then it's childs play to get a fake Romanian passport and move to the UK."

Getting fake passports is child's play, is it now?

You don't seem to realise that Turks visit EU all the time. Visas are not difficult to get. They are just time consuming and costly. If there was this ease and inclination to get fake passports, half the country would be empty already.

[TheNewStatesman]

"Visas are not difficult to get. They are just time consuming and costly."

These sentences contradict each other.

[CoteDAzur]

No, they don't.

[TheHoneyBadger]

have to agree that that is an oxymoronic sentence.

[ChardonnayKnickertonSmythe]

They are just time consuming and costly. If there was this ease and inclination to get fake passports, half the country would be empty already.

So what you are saying is that if Turks didn't have the hassle of visas and could move to Europe freely, so no need to get fake anything, then half of Turkey would be empty? The only thing that's stopping them now is the the lack of ease to get fake passports?

That's a lot of millions.

[TheHoneyBadger]

that was a bit of an own goal

[TheNewStatesman]

It was kind of funny, wasn't it?

tplondon.com/journal/index.php/bc/article/viewFile/89/88

As it happens, of course Turkey wouldn't half-empty: desire to emigrate actually seems to be around 13%, which is actually on the low side considering Turkey's socio-economic level. That said, 13% of 78.7 million people is not to be sneezed at.

The other thing to remember is that that 13% figure is among Turkish adults who are looking at other European countries as they are now. If you had an increase in migration, resulting in the build-up of substantially Turkish neighborhoods and diasporas in European countries, this would make the prospect of emigration less intimidating to people back in Turkey (because it means you can now emigrate without having to feel like a fish out of water), increasing the number of people who would be prepared to emigrate. In this way, immigration tends to feed on itself over time, a fact that is sometimes not understood by people who are trying to predict migration trends over the long term.

[Readabook1]

Turkey now pulls all the strings using the migrants as a bartering tool They have one of the largest ground armies in the world and could defeat ISIS in a few months
Remember they have had even worse bombings etc than us so they would really like to get shot of isis H owever I am not sure what Russia would say about this.
Of course they would still need to get rid of the ISIS cells in Turkey itself .
Along with Nato support (they are a member) Turkish membership of the Eu would protect us from future invasions and stem the migrant influx.
The average salary in Turkey is £400 pcm but there are many paid more, in middle-class jobs who would not leave home
But the truth? They hold all the strings now