Turkey set to invade Syria?

(47 Posts)
riverwalk Sat 06-Feb-16 10:45:47

According to Russia, signs point to Turkey about to invade Syria. This war could escalate very quickly. If Turkey does invade it must surely be with the backing of NATO. Therefore a confrontation between Russia and NATO very very likely. I just wish things would calm down, it's very scary.

hefzi Sat 06-Feb-16 12:20:34

I honestly wouldn't worry: I think it's mostly Russian sabre rattling - Turkey has enough problems to be going on with without mounting a full-scale invasion.

claig Sat 06-Feb-16 13:08:22

I think it is a dangerous time. The Saudis have said they might send ground troops into Syria.

The Turks and Saudis are losing big time in Syria as the Syrians with the help of the Russians are poised to ratake Aleppo off the funded and sponsored Jihadis.

The Jihadi Highway from Turkey through Aleppo is being cut and the Jihadis won't be able to be rearmed anymore. The Jihadis are on the run and Erdogan and the Saudis are facing the prospect of the Syrians routing the Jihadis. Within a few weeks, the Syrian and Russians will probably have cut off a lot of resupply routes for the funded and sponsored Jihadis and the Turks and Saudis are thinking of intervening in order to save what they have worked for over these past years.

It is possible that they may try to intervene on the ground but if they do I think that may be a mistake for them as I am not sure NATO will really help them out. I think we may be watching a doublecross of the Turks and Saudis and they may not get the help they are hoping for. But alternatively, elites may actually want a wider war. No one really knows.

"Risk of GLOBAL WAR as Saudi Arabia, Turkey – and Ukraine – wade into Syria

SECURITY experts fear a clash of historic foes in the "overcrowded" Syrian War will trigger World War 3.
...
Saudi Arabia has threatened to send in ground troops and intelligence reports suggest Turkey is preparing to invade.

Ukraine is also weighing up sending in soldiers.

If their forces clashed with Russians or Iranians already on the ground, NATO – including Britain – could be dragged into an apocalyptic World War 3.
...
Turkish Islamic extremists are already fighting in Syria – some on the side of ISIS – with well-attended funerals for "martyrs" held back home in Turkey.

Ultra-nationalist "Grey Wolves" – who want to protect Turkmen living in northern Syria and restore the Ottoman Empire – are also battling the Syrian army and Russian forces."

www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/492688/world-war-3-saudi-arabia-iran-turkey-iran-ukraine-ground-troops-syria-us-nato-nuclear

Keeptrudging Sat 06-Feb-16 13:16:24

Turkey should be kicked out of NATO for their part in supporting Isis and allowing the open flow of fighters and weapons into Syria. Of course, the fact they are buying cheap oil off Isis has been allowed to continue in plain sight too.

riverwalk Sat 06-Feb-16 13:42:58

That Daily star article has seriously scared me.

claig Sat 06-Feb-16 13:58:49

'That Daily star article has seriously scared me.'

riverwalk, I don't think that it will be like the Daily Star implies might happen. If anything, I think Turkey and Saudi Arabia may be being tricked and are possibly set for a fall.

StompyFreckles Sat 06-Feb-16 22:02:01

sad

vladimirsoftless Sun 07-Feb-16 12:30:14

I feel like in the frig****g Matrix. Red or blue pill anyone?

sportinguista Sun 07-Feb-16 12:51:47

It is frightening, but an article in the Telegraph suggests that Turkey's agenda is to stop the formation of a Kurdish state rather than all out war in the region.

There do seem to be too many agendas in operation though. The unfortunate product of this is a lot of people's lives being ruined or ended.

claig Tue 09-Feb-16 16:03:44

Excellent article by one of our top Middle East experts on what is going on in Syria. Well worth reading if you want to understand the truth which is so often hidden from us by the media.

The Turks are in a bad position because the Syrian and Russians are winning and the Jihadis are facing the prospect of being surrounded and completely defeated. The Turks have blocked the refugees from Aleppo from entering Turkey probably as a way to put pressure on its allies to get Russia to stop the calamity that wil loccur to the Jihadis as they get surrounded. If the Turks try to up the ante and move into Syria, then our expert says that he thinks that NATO won't help them. It looks like it is all coming to an end and that Assad and the Russians are going to win.

'The Syria War Will Not Be a Quagmire -- Because Putin and Assad Are Winning'
...
Edward Dark, a pseudonym for a respected commentator on Syrian affairs living in Aleppo, tweeted on Feb. 3, "This is the beginning of the end of jihadi presence in Aleppo. After 4 years of war & terror, people can finally see the end in sight."
...
If government forces, moving north, can make friendly contact with the Kurds in the northeast, almost all Nusra and allied rebel forces would be nearly surrounded. The insurgents would be caught in a cauldron with their backs to a lightly populated and forested territory.
...
With Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan being the irascible character that he is, it is possible that we may yet see surprises, like a Turkish incursion into northern Syria aimed -- ostensibly -- at preventing the Syrian Kurds from linking up along the southern side of the Turkish border. But, if Turkey were to take such independent action, it would likely forfeit any NATO support beyond rhetoric, and any Turkish expeditionary force would have to be launched in the face of Russia's complete air superiority in Syria, which extends right up to the Turkish border.
...
Put simply, should Nusra members (who are mainly Syrian) and other rebels try to disperse and hide amongst local communities, there will be no water in which these fish can swim, to paraphrase the Maoist adage. They will find little or no public support.
...
Peoples who undergo the kind of trauma to which Syrians have been subjected either emerge as a psychologically defeated nation or they are strengthened by the crisis through which they have passed. I am quite sure from my visits to Syria through this crisis that its people will emerge stronger. Steel has entered into the Syrian soul.

I also expect Syria to soon again constitute a strong regional state. The meaning of this will be evidenced in a powerful, cohesive northern arc through the region -- and perhaps closer relations with Iraq. Correspondingly, certain Gulf states will find themselves eclipsed.

American and many European elites will find this outcome hard to swallow.
...
The question is, will the bitterness at Syria, Russia and Iran's achievement poison America and Europe's attitude towards the new security architecture being forged in Syria? Will it be seen as anti-Western (which it is not), or will Europe manage to curb the Pavlovian NATO impulses sufficiently to establish some modus vivendi? The auguries are not promising."

www.huffingtonpost.com/alastair-crooke/syria-putin-assad_b_9169998.html

What our expert fails to mention is the huge elephant in the room - the US elections. If Donald Trump wins, it is over for the Jihadis and the regimes who backed them. It is bad news for the Saudis and Turks, but Syria will be able to escape from its nightmare.

claig Wed 10-Feb-16 22:50:11

Is Erdogan losing it? He's only started having a go at the United States, on top of all the other problems he has got. I think he is going to go into Syria and no one will help him apart from possibly the Saudis. Incredible.

"Turkish leader: U.S. responsible for 'sea of blood' for supporting Syrian Kurds

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has had no shortage of harsh, withering words for enemies involved in the bloody civil war in neighboring Syria.

Now, he's turning his verbal barrage on a key NATO ally: the United States.

Erdogan ripped into Washington on Wednesday, claiming it's responsible for a "sea of blood" in Syria for what he called its ignorance about dangers posed by other groups, not just ISIS, in the region. Specifically, he slammed America's refusal not just to resist branding Syrian Kurdish fighters as terrorists but in supporting them militarily.

"I told you many times: Are you with us or with this terrorist organization?" a fiery Erdogan told a gathering of village leaders, according to Turkish state media.

Such anger against Washington is noteworthy, though a Turkish leader lashing out at Kurds is nothing new."

edition.cnn.com/2016/02/10/middleeast/turkey-erdogan-criticizes-us/

celeste83 Thu 11-Feb-16 00:02:10

Did anyone watch World War 3 The War Room on BBC2 last week? It was very interesting and demonstrates how quickly situations like this could get out of hand. It was based on Russia attacking Latvia, also a NATO country, and ended with an exchange of nuclear weapons. The programme showed it from the perspective of the UK in a bunker in Whitehall as the UK decides what to do as the trouble unfolds. Basically ended with saying that Russia would not back down because the Government there bases itself on being powerful to the Russian people, and NATO had to defend a NATO state due to article 5 of the UN Charter.

www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b06zw32h/this-world-world-war-three-inside-the-war-room

AnnaForbes Sat 13-Feb-16 19:43:33

The situation in Syria looks like it is escalating fast. I cant begin to understand the history, its all too complex, but I am really worried. Turkey seems intent on making a bad situation worse and now the Saudis are sending in troops. Lots of comments on various news sites about WW3, is it just hysteria and scaremongering or are we really looking at the possibility of an imminent global war?

I am hoping someone on here can offer some insight and reassurance.

celeste83 Sat 13-Feb-16 19:46:49

The only way a WW3 will happen is if NATO go to war with Russia. Luckily Russia seemed to be pretty calm when Turkey shot down their plane a while back.

AnnaForbes Sat 13-Feb-16 19:55:58

Yes, I had similar thoughts after the Russian jet was shot down; I was anticipating a response from Putin and the news sites (mainly The Independent) were full of comments about a world war and the end of the world. I don't even know whose side we should be on, its all such a bloody mess.

celeste83 Sat 13-Feb-16 20:05:58

To be fair to Putin he showed restraint re Turkey. He could so easily have taken Turkey to task for that incident. The way it will truely kick off in Syria is if Iran and Saudi Arabia get into a direct war. They are the two regional powers.

AnnaForbes Sat 13-Feb-16 20:30:17

I thought he showed restraint too. Do you think it is likely that this will escalate? Are we at a stage now when the whole world is in real jeopardy like it was during the Cuban Missile crisis?

claig Sat 13-Feb-16 20:38:23

'Do you think it is likely that this will escalate?'

Yes, I think it will escalate. It is very difficult to make out exactly what is going on but I think there are two scenarios that are most probable - either WWIII or what I think will happen, that Turkey and Saudi Arabia are being tricked and will be brought down.

It all depends on what the United States do. My guess is that Turkey will go into Syria and that the Russians will retaliate and the Saudis might join in as well thinking that the US will help. I think the US will then not help and the Russians may take the Saudis down and a war with Turkey migt also ensue. Without the US, I don't think NATO will act.

However, the alternative is that Russia is being tricked into thinking that they have a green light to repel Turkey and or Saudi Arabia and that NATO then helps Turkey and a WWIII becomes ever more likely.

claig Sat 13-Feb-16 20:41:52

The Syrians and Russians are not really interested in a ceasefire now because they are beating the Jihadis. The backers of the Jihadis need a ceasefire badly in order to save their Jihadis. But after Aleppo falls, it looks like Assad and the Iranians and Russians will go for Raqqa and then the Saudis will get desperate as the Jihadis are under severe threat from Assad and they may enter to save the Jihadis.

celeste83 Sat 13-Feb-16 20:47:06

I think the Ukraine situation is most likely to bring Nato into conflict with Russia.

In Syria, i honestly don't think its in Russia's interest to go getting into a war with Saudi Arabia or Turkey. I don't see what they would gain out of it. They support the Assad regime but i can't see them wanting to get into a full scale battle over it, and neither would USA. What i cannot figure out is how Israel have not got involved in all this. Its on their doorstep. Actually it would be advantageous for Israel if Turkey/Saudi Arabia got into a war with Iran. Also how come ISIS don't seem to have any beef with Israel?

claig Sat 13-Feb-16 20:47:11

I think there is probably a split with top US circles as to whether to take Russia on. Some factions want to and some US allies want to and there is a push to blame Russia for lots of things in order to increase the pressure for war, but I think there are other factions that want to work with Russia to beat Isis and to possibly beat the sponsors of Isis. It all depends which faction have the upper hand.

claig Sat 13-Feb-16 20:54:23

'I think the Ukraine situation is most likely to bring Nato into conflict with Russia.'

Yes, people like John McCain have long been pushing for more action in Ukraine against Russia but so far Obama has stopped short of that. There are arguments that Russia is now overextended in Syria and that they could be attcked in both Syria and Ukraine. That may be what happens, but I don't think that is the plan, but I don't really know.

'In Syria, i honestly don't think its in Russia's interest to go getting into a war with Saudi Arabia or Turkey. I don't see what they would gain out of it. They support the Assad regime but i can't see them wanting to get into a full scale battle over it, and neither would USA'

Russia has said that if Saudi Arabia enters then WWIII is likely. I don't think the Russians are kidding and I think that Turkey and Saudi Arabia will be tricked to enter.

'Actually it would be advantageous for Israel if Turkey/Saudi Arabia got into a war with Iran'

It is best for Israel to stay out of it so that they remain strong after the others fight it out.

'Also how come ISIS don't seem to have any beef with Israel?'

Well that depends on what ISIS is and how they came about and who funded them and why. Israel didn't fund them, but other countries did and the objective was really to attack Iraq and Syria and form a Sunni Caliphate out of parts of those countries, so attacking Israel was not part of what Isis was created for.

celeste83 Sat 13-Feb-16 20:54:59

Things could all change depending on who gets elected in USA President. Hopefully its a Democrat. Trump would be a disaster and a real risk to global security.

claig Sat 13-Feb-16 21:01:44

No, if it is Hillary, then there will be more wars just like the wars in Syria and Libya which took place inder the Democrats. If it is many of the Republican, the same thing is likely to happen. If it is Trump, then he has said he thinks he could get on with Putin and he has said he thinks it is great that Putin is bombing Isis and the Jihadis rather than America spending $1 million per bomb. Trum is bad news for the war factions which is why they are all against him.

But I think Turkey will enter Syria way before the November election so Trump won't be able to stop what happens.

claig Sat 13-Feb-16 21:11:46

The Saudis are not even capable of beating the Yemenis who are fighting them so if they enter Syria, unless they receive external help, I think their regime may be toppled.

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