Conservative Carswell defects to UKIP

[Isitmebut]

Modernizer Carwell won the new Clacton seat in 2010 with a large majority, heavily influenced by Ukip deciding not to stand a candidate themselves – so he has found a natural home with those that have a totally anti EU stance, but seems to forget that Ukip without a parliamentary majority cannot change British law to bring us out.

Claig …… after all your rants about right wing ‘modernizers’, you now own another one – so time for you to ‘jump’ the other way? lol

P.S. His defection was hardly cold, but by 1.30pm Wikipedia had been changed to reflect his defection. Who do you think was in a hurry to reflect his move, Ukip or the Conservatives? lol

[claig]

Please do not insult the magnificent Carswell by describing him as a miserable "modernizer". Outrageous slander!

Great news that a man of principle has seen the light. There will be much rejoicing in Heaven that a prodigal son has seen the light and done what is right.

I predict he will win a landslide in God's own county of Essex where UKIP is the most popular party bar none.

I think his defection marks the end of the Conservative Party as a serious force in British politics. It's all over bar the shouting. Expect a stampede to UKIP by Members of the House in numbers that are unprecedented.

Farage said that the UKIP fox was in the henhouse, he said there would be an earthquake, and Tory MPs are now running round in circles like headless chickens not knowing which way to turn.

Their stampede to the doors of UKIP will be like nothing ever seen since the stampede of the wildebeest over the Serengeti. Mark my words!

[Isitmebut]

I want what your on, pass the hubbly bubbly pipe please.

Seriously I suspect that if there were any more modernizing defectors to Ukip, Mr Farage would have liked to have announced all his new "wildebeests" in one go.

There were recently high profile Ukip women LEAVING due to the obvious, who were similarly announced by great fanfare by Mr Farage.

Maybe there will be a gender shift as we get closer to the General Election, as the 'deers' come back the other way.

Re "I predict he will win a landslide in God's own county of Essex where UKIP is the most popular party bar none" - well the best of luck getting your FIRST Westminster MP, never mind from Essex (close to my neck of the woods) as the pro EU Federal State Labour Party reaps the benefits from the Ukip vote.

[WetAugust]

Bad news for you Isitmebut. A conviction (former Tory) MP had decided to defcet to UKIP because, (like us) he knows that Dave's ballot wouldn't change a thing. Therefore Dave's ballot is ot worth having. Therefore there's no point in voting Tory in order to try to obatin a ballot that won't change a thing.

Carswell has finally acknowledged and acted in response to what Claig and I have been saying for months.

It doesn't really matter which of the big 3 get in cos they are all wedded to EU membership.

[claig]

Essex by-election

It's over. If you think the Essex public will vote in a Tory, I have a seaside property on Mars you might be interested in buying.

UKIP landslide and Carswell in Parliament. Questions at the despatch box before the election. Portent of things to come.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2736598/Tory-MP-Douglas-Carswell-defects-UKIP-resigns-Parliament-spark-crunch-Essex-byelection.html

He's done em up like a kipper. The Essex public are rejoicing already. Drinks will be on the house in Dog and Ducks all over the county. here will be toasts to Farage and Carswell.

Cameron will have to have the whole Cabinet camped out in Clacton throughout the entire election period just to try and win a handful of votes.

Ashcroft never predicted this. Farage at his best. Curtains.

Bloody marvellous!

[ajandjjmum]

Genuine question - why would the ballot change nothing, if everyone voted?

[claig]

Farage will come to Essex. I'll have to get down to Clacton and listen to the speech of the statesman. It's not often one gets close to greatness.

[AuntieStella]

I wonder if the Westminster Village knew this one was coming.

Forcing a bye-election now is going to have an impact on the General Election. If UKIP win here, then they may well take other target seats. If they don't, it stuffs things up for them.

Is there a date for it yet?

The explanation that putting it to constituents, even this late in a Parliament, is simply the right thing to do (because he was voted in with one party allegiance and needs re-endorsing after defection to another) seems to be playing well. It's being seen as more honourable (or at least less narcissistic) than those who defect but don't offer their electorate a choice.

[claig]

' If UKIP win here, then they may well take other target seats.'

AuntieStella, this is Essex, UKIP will absolutely thrash the Tories here. This is not Newark, this is the real deal - Essex.

[Isitmebut]

WetAugust …. So you agree that Cameron WILL give a 2017 EU stay in/leave EU Referendum in the unlikely event they win a parliamentary majority in 2015, but don’t think he will honour a ‘leave’ result – how stupid is that theory?

Carswell’s point seemed to be, was that he didn’t think Cameron will get much ‘change’ out of the EU before 2015, well I agree with him – so all the more reason to WANT an EU Referendum to let THE PEOPLE decide, after an informative debate by both sides – as just being told we have to stay in as politicians don’t trust the electorate, is the only alternative.

The Conservative Right helped rip the party apart in 1997 and gave Blair a 147(?) parliamentary seat majority to do everything they wanted to do unchallenged and resulted in their rubbish economic, financial and social 2010 legacy, passed back to a Conservative led coalition.

IMO the less Carswells the better, as unlike MP lemons sitting from 1997 who did what they were told by their leadership what to do/vote for, the far right Conservative MP’s are best off at Ukip.

[AbbieHoffmansAfro]

Claig, claig, claig.

God's own county of Essex? What sacrilege! Everyone knows that God's own county is Yorkshire. Have a word with yourself!

[AbbieHoffmansAfro]

I think UKIP have a good chance in Sir Peter Tapsell's seat in Lincolnshire. Tapsell is retiring at the end of this Parliament.

[WetAugust]

Genuine answer:

It would depend very much on what the actual question is i.e.

Do you want the UK to remain a member of the EU is about the plainest question you could ask. Answer YES or NO

However, the question the Government decides to ask could be 'Do you want the UK to continue to enjoy the benefits of EU membership?' which implies that the Govt themselves see membership as positive and this stance could prejudice the result as some people will automatically follow the Govt's recommendations.

Then you have to ask - will the Govt allow their MPs to campaign freely for or against depending on their own views, instead of towing the party line?

Then there's the issue of funding for the propoganda. I would expect the EU to spend billions funding propoganda for a pro EU vote (after all we are their Golden Goose as a net contributor). That's hardly a fair contest.

But, as Carswell has stated, the Tory position is the same as all the other major parties. The Tories want to stay in the EU and, as Carswell said, will 'do minimum' with regard to EU reform to persuade the voters to vote to stay in. Therefore they will lie and cheat to deny the UK electorate a fair and reasoned referendum. The average person knows nothing about the EU and the way that the EU experiment permeates every aspect of their lives. If they did they would be truly shocked. So parties. like UKIP, that try to reveal the truth are ridciuled and mocked - because the truth about the very real damage that the EU is causing to Britain has to be kept from the electorate because, as members of the EU, the Uk is powerless.

Net immigration of 243,000 in ONE year? That's a city larger than Southampton.

Can we build a new Southampton every year?

Because until we leave the EU and regain control of our borders we will have to build a new Southampton every year to accommodate those fellow EU members that can legally decide to move here.

It's simply unsustainable!

[DownByTheRiverside]

One of the worrying things for opposers of UKIP is that he came across as articulate, intelligent and capable of rational, considered thought.
So that's at least 2 members of the party that don't appear like ignorant, racist buffons and that will be very appealing to voters.

[claig]

'Is there a date for it yet?'

Sorry I haven't been able to check yet. I had to go and pour myself a large glass of Sauvignon and treat myself to a cake. News like this calls for a celebration.

Will start googling for the date of the doomsday by-election for the Tories now.

[AuntieStella]

The target seats aren't all in Essex [white van?]

The 12 (according to The Telegraph) are: South Thanet, Boston and Skegness, North Thanet, Sittingborne and Sheppey, Forest of Dean, Aylebury, Great Yarmouth, East Worthing, Thurrock, Grimsby, Eastleigh and Portsmouth

It also commentated that if there is a swing to UKIP, the likely outcome is Miliband as PM without a clear majority. But how he would build a coalition is beyond me.

[claig]

'Everyone knows that God's own county is Yorkshire'

Abbie, there is no denying that Yorkshire is great. I love the spirit, humour and straight-talk of Yorkshire people and it looked really beautiful when I saw it on the Tour De France. I have never been there, must go one day.

But Essex is great too - the people are fantatstic and the Tories don't stand a cat in hell's chance down here, just wait and see!

[ArsenicyOldFace]

Can we just pause for a moment and appreciate how well Farage did at not looking too pleased with himself at that press conference?

I couldn't help being a bit impressed.

[Isitmebut]

Claig .... "this is Essex, they will trash the Tories there", like in the 2010 General Election with zero seats????

Yes Essex is seen as a 'bellwether' country, as they tend to look at who is best for the economy.

Ukip cannot be trusted on the UK domestic issues, especially as they lie on the one EU policy they have.

In 2010 Ukip launched their General Election manifesto, but before long Mr Farage who signed it off, then totally disowned it.

“UKIP leader Nigel Farage has disowned the party's entire general election manifesto - which he helped launch - branding it "drivel”.
news.sky.com/story/1200525/nigel-farage-disowns-ukip-manifesto-as-drivel

So whereas Essex votes for Ukip in the European elections, they won't fall for your lies when it affects their pockets.

Ukip, like the Lib Dem on School Fees, can promise to deliver wildlife from Mars, knowing they will never form a government and be held to it.

[claig]

Isitmebut, I hope you ae not advising the Tory Party on election strategy and spin because if you are, they are in for an even bigger hammering in Essex than I thought.

Essex people like common sense and straight-talk - basically UKIP - not Bullingdon baloney, Old Fogey flannel and Tory trickery.

[WetAugust]

I see the editors have been thumbing through their catalogue of 'MP looking dim/odd/scary/bonkers/etc photos now Carswell has defected.

It's a huge gamble though as if he fails to be elected that will definitley affect UKIPs chances in the GE.

I don't think they can announce the BE date during the Parl recess. Cameron will probably do for just before Christmas when folk are concentrating on other things. That or an immediate one to put as much distance as he can between the BE and the GE.

Isitmebut

Look, if you don't trust someone to deliver what they say they will deliver then there's no point in engaging with them.

I almost (not quite) trust Dave to give us some sort of referendum.

I don't trust Dave to ask us a fair IN/OUT unweighted question.

I don't trust Dave to allow the campaigning to be fair.

I fully expect the Tories to campaign hevaily for IN vote.

So why should I vote for a party that will give a referendum in which they (all 3 major parties) actively campaign against my own stance? Might as well not bother.

So I'll stick with UKIP and try to get people to understand the adverse impact of the EU on their lives.

[WetAugust]

Remember

BASILDON

[AuntieStella]

“UKIP leader Nigel Farage has disowned the party's entire general election manifesto - which he helped launch - branding it "drivel”.

I think there have been quite a few changes in all parties' manifestos between the period 2010 and 2014 that he was talking about. Labour can't stop apologising for theirs, and the way they disown it (and a fair amount of what they did in Government) sounds more scripted than F's straightforward "drivel".

What do you think is going to play better right now? More weasely-sounding Labour? Or a plainer style?

Neither will be trusted, but which is nicer to listen to?

[Isitmebut]

WetAugust .... re the EU vote question, Cameron has said like the Scottish Referendum, it will be IN/OUT and that will be in the 2015 general Election manifesto.

Re the rest of your EU rant, the choice is simple, stay in regardless with Labour/Lib Dems, or a Referendum via the Conservatives as Ukip cannot deliver their MAIN policy, to bring the UK out of the EU - so a vote for Ukip is a vote for Labour's economic and EU policies.

Re what Carswell says, 'well he would sat that, wouldn't he', as how else could be justify leaving one party bringing economic growth and an EU vote, and joining another who cannot deliver on an EU/immigration change and flip flops on every domestic policy for the 20-years they have been around.

[BoredPanda]

As a kind of Essex person, I agree that Essex is God's own county and all of my friends and family back home are staunchly against UKIP, thankfully.

[Isitmebut]

AuntieSteller .... there are always changes to the Ukip promises to suit the popular vote, but after 20-years Ukip should know by know WHAT they stand for.

Due to dodgy electoral boundaries, the Conservatives need to be around 8 points over Labour in the polls to get a simple majority, whereas Labour only needs 31% of the popular vote for a majority to 'rule', possibly over Conservatives with 35% of the vote and as now (a 20 seat minority) - and decide our economic and EU's future.

A vote for Ukip is a vote for Labour, so get used to the Labour manifesto, as thanks to Ukip the country will be wearing it. lol