Ukraine - WWIII?

(42 Posts)
TerrierandJune96 Tue 25-Mar-14 11:42:15

Whilst we're marking the anniversary of the start of WW1, world politicians seem to be intent on starting WWIII. Should be be worried?

This satirical, but painfully plausible, piece suggests that the lessons of history still have to be learnt. eveningharold.com/2014/03/25/sanctions-on-himmler-and-goebbels-fail-deter-hitler-from-occupation-of-poland/

Hopefulgoat Tue 25-Mar-14 14:02:41

Yes, we should be worried.

Even though most elected politicians would say they don't intend to start WWIII, they seem to be sleepwalking into it by accident due to deliberate dangerous provocations by non-elected politicians or blunders by the EU bureaucrats, compounded by the fact that all of them completely miscalculated Russia's response. The western foreign policy towards Russia is out of control and lacks coherent long term strategy, and therefore there is a very real risk of accidental WWIII.

niceguy2 Tue 25-Mar-14 14:27:14

Nah, there's not going to be WW3. Noone is seriously even talking about that. Noone is going to be foolish enough to take on Russia.

But therein also lies the problem. Firstly Russia has in effect done exactly what Hitler did with Czechoslovakia. He's invaded a sovereign country and annexed part of it.

Now in WW2 we appeased Hitler and didn't take him on. Unfortunately the response so far has been pretty weak. We've introduced travel bans on a few selected Russians and suspended the G8. Putin must be laughing his socks off.

The problem is that our response has been weak and noone respects the weak. Especially not on the world stage.

Personally I think we don't need to threaten war. That's just foolish. But we can collectively stop buying Russia's energy and stop trading with them. In the short term it will hurt us too since many European countries are reliant on Russian gas but longer term issues are at stake here.

Because what does this example tell countries like Iran & North Korea?

Well if I were a mad dictator I'd be thinking "Why are the US/EU not invading Crimea or sending in the UN peacekeepers?. It's because they have nukes....i need nukes!"

And that's why I think we need a much more robust response. It's not Russia and the Crimea I'm worried about. It's the example it sets to others that once you have nukes, you can do what you want and the US/EU won't dare take you on.

Hopefulgoat Tue 25-Mar-14 14:38:55

Hostile policy towards Russia is the reason for the problem, not the solution.

If Russia had much to loose from sanctions, then they would have everything to gain by annexing Ukraine and changing the post Cold War settlement. It is probably exactly the Putin's calculation..

Hopefulgoat Tue 25-Mar-14 14:40:47

The western foreign policy towards Russia lacks coherent long term strategy, and therefore there is a very real risk of accidental WWIII.

Look what happened with Ukraine. Obama tried to reset the relations with Russia but was confronted with resistance from the right wing Congress and entrenched right wing hold on US security agencies. For ideological reasons, they couldn't even accept the warning signal from Russian secret service about Boston bombing. For Russia the neutrality of Ukraine was an uncompromising 'red line' of the post cold war settlement. Yet, the US right wing and hardliners like McCain, who lost the presidential race, have been hard at work steering the Ukrainian nationalists who are russo-phobic Neo Nazi to unsettle the balance and shift Ukraine into NATO. The result was Russian military response in Crimea and the 'new Cold War'. It seems now the long term strategy for US to to reignite the Cold War and make Europe dependent on US gas and US military again.

With all the tensions flaring up the Generals in UK, US and NATO jumped on the band wagon arguing against cuts and for increased investment in the military.

On the EU side the most vocal politicians siding with the Ukrainian right wing were politicians from Poland and the Baltic states (which have their own russo-phobic Nazi SS worshiping constituency). They want to shift Ukraine, but expect the rest of Europe and NATO to cover for their security as a result of tensions and even to compensate for their economic losses in case of economic sanctions against Russia. They steer the trouble but do not expect to pay for the resulting mess.

The association agreement put to Yanukovich was prepared by EU technocrats. They did their usual thing, but didn't give any thought to the possible Russian reaction. They didn't seem to have done any scenario and contingency planning. Apparently the EU leaders didn't even discuss the implications and risks of this agreement on the strategic level. The elected politicians sleep-walked or rather were taken for a ride. It was all mismanaged by technocrats and war mongering loons.

The French and German foreign affair ministers seem to have negotiated a settlement on the 21 February, but were not able to uphold it. The out of control Ukrainian Neo Nazi pushed for an unballanced government with 4 right wing ministers in it. No surprise it triggered a very strong reaction in Russian leaning East of Ukraine. For anyone who knows Russian and Ukrainian history, it was the unavoidable expected outcome, yet it cough politicians as a surprise.

At the end of the cold war Gorbatchev was promised that NATO would not expand, particularly into Ukraine, and this was the basis, admittedly not spoken, for the Russian acceptance of post Cold War settlement.
However the US were pursuing the Brzezinski doctrine which has a declared purpose of encircling Russia with hostile Russo-phobic states in order to destabilize, weaken and break the country apart. In diplomatic fora the EU and US were speaking of partnership with Russia, while in practice they were pursuing a doctrine with an end game that was incompatible with "partnership" and could not be acceptable for Russia. A confrontation was inevitable, yet the politicians all pretend they didn't expect it.

Europe has a strategic interest in a stable and friendly relations with Russia and in not having unstable states and harmed conflicts on its border. However, it is unable to pursue an independent foreign policy.

When in 2008 Sakashwili attacked Abchasia and triggered war with Russia (apparently having misread the messages from Washington), European leaders run to Moscow to settle the dispute because they wanted to assert their control over EU foreign policy and avoid conflicts on EU borders. However in the case of Ukraine, they were not in control.

When reacting to the annexation of Crimea, the politicians are talking tough, catering for their domestic audiences (they know Putin doesn't give a dam). The media coverage of the conflict is not very evenly balanced and it makes it difficult for the politicians to discuss the issue in a strategic considered way. Instead they are posturing in a reversed auction of indignation. That is all good, but it puts them into a corner.

So far all western foreign policy was based on the assumption that Russia will absorb all the incoherence and hypocrisy, take one step back after the other and compromise once more. But Putin called the bluff and shown that it might not be the case. So what now?

Is re-militarisation of Europe and dependence on US gas really in the best policy? Do we really want a nuclear stand-off with Russia?

EU needs to take control of its foreign policy.

claig Tue 25-Mar-14 21:47:18

I think hopefulgoat is right to be worried.

We don't really know what the planning is or has been. We have many strange events, particularly to do with China at the same time as this crisis - the knife attack in the railway station and the Malaysian plane. And we also have a weak global financial system. Why was the coup backed? We don't know what is going on.

Here is an article from Professor Chussodovsky

"Ukraine: “The Worst Case Scenario is World War III”"

"We are at a very dangerous crossroads. We are observing the confrontation between the two major nuclear powers, namely the US and Russia. The worst case scenario is World War III. I’m not suggesting that it is going to occur, but I should also mention, having reviewed military documents over the last 10 years, that WWIII, from the point of view of US military planners – Pentagon and NATO – is not an abstract concept

They have been involved in various exercises with the so-called WWIII scenarios One of these famous exercises was called TIRANNT, which stands for Theater Iran Near Term. That’s when Iran was the object of military threats from the West. But in fact, this particular WWIII scenario involved several countries, including Russia, China and Iran, and North Korea . These were the stated enemies of the Western military alliance

That particular WWIII scenario was leaked to the Washington Post. It is well-documented and it is a very detailed simulation of different actions and failures of diplomacy leading up to a WWIII scenario. So, let’s be under no illusions – the weapons systems are devastating, the decision-making processes are very complex and errors and misjudgments can take place.

The second thing I’d like to say is that at present we have a self-proclaimed coalition government which is integrated by neo-Nazis. If you look at the composition of this government, the key portfolios are still held by members of the other parties within the coalition.

But what is revealing is the fact that that the neo-Nazi parties, including Svoboda and the Right Sector, control the National Committee on Defense and National Security, which oversees the armed forces, the police, intelligence. And ultimately, it is this committee which is now calling the shots on the deployment of the Ukrainian forces.

We also have a situation where a Minister of Defense has been replaced. Several key commanders of the Ukrainian forces have been dismissed. And what seems to be unfolding is the neo-Nazi control over the law enforcement and the Ukrainian armed forces.

This does not necessarily imply that they will achieve their objective, because within the armed forces and the police there still are large sectors which are loyal to President Yanukovych

The people who are in charge of national security in this coalition government, they have control over the national security apparatus. These are not the people who actually decide. The whole basis of a coup d’état supported from the outside is to install political puppets

And why did they choose to install these neo-Nazi puppets? For the simple reason that those individuals obey orders. And the orders will emanate from Washington and Brussels

We see that Andriy Parubiy, who was the co-founder of the neo-Nazi Social National Party, which was, subsequently, renamed Svoboda, was appointed Secretary of the National Security and National Defense Committee (RNBOU). And that is s key position involving the coordination of the armed forces.

And another individual who is very important – Dmitry Yarosh – who is the leader of the Right Sector and essentially the head of the brown-shirt neo-Nazi paramilitary during the Maidan protest movement, he is number 2 in this key organization RNBOU."

www.globalresearch.ca/ukraine-the-worst-case-scenario-is-world-war-iii/5373075

Has anyone noticed that as far as I can see none of our media has mentioned the Tymoshenko tape leaked by the Russians yesterday. It is on youtube, on Russia Today and all over alternative media and conspiracy sites?

claig Tue 25-Mar-14 21:54:33

Some pundits are saying that the Ukrainian army will not back the Neo-nazis and the National Guard and that the Neo-nazis will eventually lose support as Ukraine suffers financial hardship and the pro-Russian elements object to their rule. A civil war is a possibility.

We don't really know. But plans must be in place for all contigencies.

claig Tue 25-Mar-14 21:58:03

Some pundits on conspiracy sites are saying that Ukraine is a diversion to keep eyes away from Iran, and a strike on Iran may be the catalyst that starts World War III.

No one knows, but I think it is a dangerous time for the world.

claig Wed 26-Mar-14 00:34:39

"Poland Is Quietly Mobilizing Its Army Reservists

It seems the words of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warning that “the world stands on the brink of conflict, the consequences of which are not foreseen... Not everyone in Europe is aware of this situation," are a little more real than some (US equity buyers) might suspect. As The Week's Crispin Black reports, at least 7,000 Polish workers in Europe have received call-up papers as army reservists in the last few weeks. Polish authorities dismiss it as "routine" but the men note this has never happened before."

www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-24/poland-quietly-mobilizing-its-army-reservists

PigletJohn Wed 26-Mar-14 00:44:45

I see the pro-Putin lobby are back throwing around their Nazi smears.

Sadly we are faced with a return to Stalinist expansion and military dominance, there are clear parallels with the Russian-dominated red army rolling into Hungary and Czechoslovakia in the previous two generations.

Putin needs populist action at home so that his regime's corruption and kleptocracy continues to be overlooked. As an ex-communist and KGB leader he is following a well-trodden path.

Hopefulgoat Wed 26-Mar-14 09:30:47

Speaking about fascism and 'European values',

Piglet, I am really interested to hear your opinion on Timoshenco's pledge to nuke the 8 million Russians in Ukraine.

PigletJohn Wed 26-Mar-14 09:38:15

I don't take it seriously.

If I represented a world power which bugged its enemies, I dare say I could record all sorts of embarrassing phone calls and emails which I could weave into my propaganda.

Which country do you think will be the next to experience a Russian military invasion?

Hopefulgoat Wed 26-Mar-14 09:51:22

Sorry, you didn't answer the question.
What do you make of Timoshenco's pledge to nuke the 8 million Russians in Ukraine.

She clearly believes in ethnic cleansing on a mass scale.

She was a Prime Minister and is a leading presidential candidate from the same party as Yats.

EthelDorothySusan Wed 26-Mar-14 09:53:42

I am walking around with my fingers in my ears going la la la.

PigletJohn Wed 26-Mar-14 09:55:50

Read my answer again. Look especially carefully at the top line which contains five words.

When you've done that, tell me which country you think will be the next to experience a Russian military invasion.

Hopefulgoat Wed 26-Mar-14 10:32:16

It wouldn't be tenable for David Cameron to be cought saying he would wipe out the Pakistanis in UK. In any context under any circumstances. Even the National Front and EDL would raw back from that.

No amount of excuse would deny that statements like that do reflect the value system and beliefs.

This exposes the racist and oppressive nature of Ukrainian nationalism. They are no democrats and have no 'European' values. They just want their turn at pillaging and want to impose their rule by force. The Ukrainian political culture takes roots in the Russian Empire, it is ferociously oppressive and totalitarian. Ukraine, like Russia didn't evolve yet.

Ukrainian nationalism is fascist in its roots. It asserts racial advantage by force.
Bandera nationalists collaborated with the Nazi genocidal policies. During the Nazi occupation of Ukjraine and Russia they did the dirtiest jobs of torturing, pillaging, raping and gunning down civilians, including the atrocious genocide of 100000 Jews in Babii Yar.

Clearly Timoshenko and the current government share the same political heritage and value system.

Otherwise how could president Youschenko (when Timishenko was PM) make Bandera into a national hero?

What you have now is that the party that carry the flag for democracy, rule of law and human rights in Ukraine is the same that practiced in the past and secretly believe now in anti-Russian genocide.

I think it is absolutely disgraceful and a strategic mistake that UK and Europe allied themselves with the Bandera scum.

It discredited with the Ukrainian people the very ideas or democracy, human rights and 'European rule of law', exposing cinical hypocrisy. Just like Yeltsin's rule in Russia made the word 'democracy' into a euphemism for chaos and abuse.

PigletJohn Wed 26-Mar-14 10:38:38

So you've been able to see my answer now. Obviously you choose to interpret a bugged private phonecall, possibly manipulated, by an out-of-office person, as a "pledge."

Which country do you think will be the next to experience a Russian military invwsion?

HectorVector Wed 26-Mar-14 10:43:24

What ethel said... It terrifies me.

EthelDorothySusan Wed 26-Mar-14 10:49:54

HectorVector i have to keep rereading things as I struggle to understand it all. All I can see is that history is repeating it's self, Germany invaded one country....

I think it is best to just get on with your life and have a look at the news from time to time, I don't watch the news daily, I have quick look at the online headlines and if there is something kicking off I pay attention, otherwise I don't have much to do with the news. It doesn't make me happy and can at times stress me out, it is often mostly not good news being reported.

Hopefulgoat Wed 26-Mar-14 12:16:27

Ethel, I can see what you mean one one hand, but on the other, didn't the Germans just closed their eyes and and got on with their lives when the Jews were gassed? Those men manning the gas chambers came home in the evening to their family dinners...

Shouldn't we actually be asking why our government allied themselves with people who worship Bandera Nazis and privately dream that we will help them to wipe out the Russians. If we stand for human rights and democracy, surely ethnic cleansing is not on, even if it targeted against the Russians?

PigletJohn Wed 26-Mar-14 12:49:42

There's a very definite trend for goat to speak of the Ukrainians as a guilty, sub-human race. Quite apart from the fact that the Russian-dominated Soviet Union imprisoned, deported and slaughtered even more victims than did the nazis, and Russia has a long history of racism and anti-semitism, and its own neo-nazis, and engineered a man-made famine in Ukraine which led to the deaths of millions by starvation, which are facts she avoids, I see her pattern in her words

-Ukrainian nationalists who are russo-phobic Neo Nazi
-The out of control Ukrainian Neo Nazi
Poland and the Baltic states (which have their own russo-phobic Nazi SS worshiping constituency
- encircling Russia with hostile Russo-phobic states
- racist and oppressive nature of Ukrainian nationalism. They are no democrats and have no 'European' values.
- Ukrainian nationalism is fascist in its roots. It asserts racial advantage by force.
- nationalists collaborated with the Nazi genocidal policies.
- believe now in anti-Russian genocide

Claig shares these views
- government which is integrated by neo-Nazis
- the neo-Nazi parties, including Svoboda and the Right Sector, control the National Committee on Defense and National Security
- neo-Nazi control over the law enforcement and the Ukrainian armed forces.
- neo-Nazi puppets
- the brown-shirt neo-Nazi paramilitary
- the Neo-nazis and the National Guard and that the Neo-nazis

So we have a very strong and outspoken hatred of the Ukrainian people, from the Putin supporters. There is a message that Ukrainians are not fit to run their own country. Perhaps the Putin supporters believe that it is an act of kindness to invade their country because Ukrainians are under-human and not yet ready to govern themselves.

Hopefulgoat Wed 26-Mar-14 13:18:46

Piglet, why do you equate Neo Nazis and Timoshenko with the Ukrainian people?

Ukrainian people voted Timoshenko out of office.

PigletJohn Wed 26-Mar-14 13:43:26

goat, why do you say all the following things (copied from your posts) casting slurs of Nazism on the people of Ukraine?

-Ukrainian nationalists who are russo-phobic Neo Nazi
-The out of control Ukrainian Neo Nazi
Poland and the Baltic states (which have their own russo-phobic Nazi SS worshiping constituency
- encircling Russia with hostile Russo-phobic states
- racist and oppressive nature of Ukrainian nationalism. They are no democrats and have no 'European' values.
- Ukrainian nationalism is fascist in its roots. It asserts racial advantage by force.
- nationalists collaborated with the Nazi genocidal policies.
- believe now in anti-Russian genocide

PigletJohn Wed 26-Mar-14 13:44:52

and which country do you think will be the next to experience a Russian military invasion?

AngelaDaviesHair Wed 26-Mar-14 13:48:29

Admiring your work on this thread, Piglet.

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