Latest attack in Syria

(428 Posts)
Jammybean Wed 21-Aug-13 22:11:31

Just watching BBC news, they were frantically trying to save a toddler who was convulsing . I feel physically sick.

WetAugust Wed 04-Sep-13 15:55:37

At least you knew where you were in the Cold War - which countries were your foes and which your allies. Warfare was pretty much conventional.

I thought WW3 was going to start when Iraq launched the scud missiles into Israel. That first attack was a very scary night to live through.

Now you have asymmetrical warfare with uncertain outcomes.

I disagree that the UN Security Council knows what to do. Don't forget it includes Russia and that country's policy in this matter differs from US, France and our own. And our hands are effectively tied by the Parliamentary vote - although Cameron could ignore it - at his peril.

Wannabestepfordwife Wed 04-Sep-13 14:48:22

Yeah I do believe we are I maybe exaggerated about the Cold War bit but I didn't live through it.

There lots the UN could be doing with regards to humanitarian aid and support for the countries who are accepting refugees. They could also been seen to be making moves to bring some diplomacy between the USA, Assad and Iran.

bemybebe Wed 04-Sep-13 14:44:20

"I really believe we are closer to WW3 then we have ever been the complexities of the situation make the Cold War look like a picnic."

Really??

"The UN really need to pull their heads out of their arses and do something.?

Are you talking assembly or security council because security council know exactly what they do.

niceguy2 Wed 04-Sep-13 14:25:36

>>>Is Assad being worked like a puppet by Iran?<<<
I haven't heard anything that suggests this. As far as I remember it all started because of the Arab spring revolution. Assad tried to violently put down dissent and it's backfired. It has nothing to do with Iran.

Is this some sort of proxy war that is designed to allow the US a crack at Iran?

Not seeing the relevance here.

Is this the excuse for the start of the inevitable US/Iran WMD-denial operation we've been expecting for years now?
I doubt it. More a case of making a point to show Iran/North Korea that if they use WMD then they'll get bombed. So in reality it's more a case of trying to make sure there's no future Iran WMD operation because they'll be scared.

I heard some commentator suggest that if Syria were attacked Iran could retaliate.
Who knows for sure but I doubt it.

Wannabestepfordwife Wed 04-Sep-13 13:51:49

I agree with niceguy I don't think Assad would hit an American ship it would be suicide.

I really believe we are closer to WW3 then we have ever been the complexities of the situation make the Cold War look like a picnic.

The UN really need to pull their heads out of their arses and do something.

WetAugust Wed 04-Sep-13 13:45:38

I keep hearing people saying it will make Iraq look like 'a walk in the park'.

That scares me badly.

Let's just walk away from this madness.

Rooners Wed 04-Sep-13 13:44:09

I wondered about this in terms of it being quite similar to how you'd treat a naughty child....

start hitting them and they will struggle at proving they are still in charge,

walk away from them, isolate them and don't listen and maybe they will shut up and behave.

Russia has suspended supplies of missiles to Syria. Nice one Putin - that's brilliant. Why can't we all now do the same?

crescentmoon Wed 04-Sep-13 13:37:22

the scary thing is so many sides will quickly get to the point in this where they cant back down without losing face. there will be a cascade effect and every side will have to take it further to the next stage otherwise be thought of as weak. America, Syria, Iran, Russia, israel, the gulf, turkey

WetAugust Wed 04-Sep-13 13:17:08

What's Assad's motive?

Is Assad being worked like a puppet by Iran?

Is this some sort of proxy war that is designed to allow the US a crack at Iran?

Is this the excuse for the start of the inevitable US/Iran WMD-denial operation we've been expecting for years now?

I heard some commentator suggest that if Syria were attacked Iran could retaliate.

EldritchCleavage Wed 04-Sep-13 13:16:22

But who says Iran will attack Israel?

Russia attacking Saudi just isn't credible-I read one of the links you posted earlier on Prince Bandar, and it was completely unconvincing.

The fact that Syria has missiles capable of sinking American ships does not mean there is the political will to use them. This just catastrophising.

NicholasTeakozy Wed 04-Sep-13 13:03:21

Who's going to stop him?

The rebels are being armed by Qatar and Saudi Arabia and are augmented by various Al Qaida affiliated groups.

Pseudo, either Matt Scavo or Michael Snyder have written articles (backed with references) saying that should the US attack Syria Russia will go after Saudi because of threats made by Prince Bandar, both Syria and Iran will attack Israel and Israel will retaliate.

Also, Syria now has missiles with more than enough range and accuracy to sink American ships. What happens should that happen? Finally, Russia has moved a missile launching ship into the Eastern Med.

niceguy2 Wed 04-Sep-13 12:25:54

Who's going to stop him?

There is no planned ground invasion. Nor is there likely to be. Not unless he does something really stupid like attack a US ship.

One of the great things about American people is their unwavering support and respect for their armed forces. There'd be nothing better to swing public support towards blowing Assad off the face of the planet than attacking a US ship.

ElenorRigby Wed 04-Sep-13 12:00:20

"What he wants is to be left alone to crush the rebellion."

Indeed, but he's not going be allowed to do that.

niceguy2 Wed 04-Sep-13 11:43:46

Assad is currently winning but it's still a hell of a fight for him. That tends to happen when the other side are literally fighting for their lives.

Syria might have a decent weapons capability but compared with the US it's like throwing rocks at a tank. The US could if it desired level the entire country without the single loss of one of it's soldiers. So to launch an attack on a vastly superior military power makes absolutely no sense.

The LAST thing Assad really wants is US intervention. What he wants is to be left alone to crush the rebellion.

ElenorRigby Wed 04-Sep-13 11:29:18

Well said Nicholas.

AS for things escalating beyond Syria, I totally agree too.

We are being told we have to go into Syria to stop Assad's forces killing Syrian people with CM.
That quite simply is a lie.
It is an argumentum ad misericordiam, an appeal to people's emotions that something must be done to save Syria's poor innocent children. Just as the Nayirah Testimony convinced a wavering American public to enter the first Gulf War

The real reason/s for this coming war lies elsewhere. They are not being presented to the public because the geopolitics of oil, gas or weapons capability are not palatable reasons for ordinary people (who are already war weary and distrustful of politicians) to endorse yet another war.
As Goering said "Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders." These days all manner of dirty tricks are used, be they appeals to pity, false flags or whatever ruse they come up with.

Syria however is different from other conflicts because of it's
*weapons capability,
*it's allies Russia and Iran
*it's location on the Med bordering Turkey and Israel.

I have no doubt they are playing with fire here.

Lord knows how this will end.

As I said before all bets are off.

EldritchCleavage Wed 04-Sep-13 11:03:34

No, I'm with niceguy2, it is vanishingly unlikely Assad would attack US forces. He really isn't stupid. And he can't be that formidable, or this civil war would not be taking so long to win.

The US military is very very far ahead of anyone else's if not in sheer numbers then certainly in technology and expertise. Even China would think twice.

niceguy2 Wed 04-Sep-13 11:01:39

What's Assad's motive?

PseudoBadger Wed 04-Sep-13 10:50:05

Expect things to escalate beyond Syria should the US go ahead and attack.

Can you elaborate on this?

NicholasTeakozy Wed 04-Sep-13 10:31:01

Syria won't launch missiles on the US Navy

I wouldn't be so sure Niceguy, Assad will strike back, he has the capability. Also, Assad wants to hang on to power, plus he's currently winning against the rebels.

Expect things to escalate beyond Syria should the US go ahead and attack.

ElenorRigby Wed 04-Sep-13 09:54:43

Israel grants Golan exploration licence
John Reed, Financial Times

Israel has granted a US company a licence to explore for oil and gas in the occupied Golan Heights in a move likely to stir diplomatic controversy ahead of next month’s visit to the region by President Barack Obama.

The country’s energy ministry confirmed on Thursday that it had given the exploration licence to a local subsidiary of Genie Energy, a New York-listed company whose shareholders include Jacob Rothschild and Rupert Murdoch. Dick Cheney, the former US vice-president, is an adviser.

Israel seized the Golan Heights from Syria in the Six day war in 1967, but its occupation of the territory is not recognised under international law.

Although the territory has been largely peaceful since 1967, as Syria’s civil war has intensified Israeli officials have expressed concern that Damascus is deliberately seeking to draw Israel into the conflict. Late last year Israeli soldiers fired tank shells across the border after stray mortars landed in the Golan.

Some analysts have linked the timing of the licence award to the situation in Syria. Yaron Ezrahi, an Israeli political analyst, said: “This action is mostly political – it’s an attempt to deepen Israeli commitment to the occupied Golan Heights. The timing is directly related to the fact that the Syrian government is dealing with violence and chaos and is not free to deal with this problem.”

Genie competed for the drilling licence against an unnamed second company which Globes, the Israeli financial newspaper, identified as Ultra Equity Investments.

In accordance with Israel’s petroleum law, the exploration licence covers just under 400 square kilometres. “We applied for an oil and gas exploration licence which may entail drilling,” the US company said on Thursday. “We received notice of the licence yesterday.”

Genie already has an oil exploration and production licence in the Shfela region of central Israel, and a joint venture with Total to produce shale oil in Colorado.

A person close to the process, who asked not to be named, said that the company had submitted its application in August last year, and that the second company applied later.

Genie won the bid based on geological, professional and other criteria, this person said. Details of its bid are not publicly available.

Mr Obama is due to visit Israel, the occupied West Bank and Jordan in late March, at a time when Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is under growing diplomatic pressure over its expansion of settlements on occupied Palestinian land.

Recent natural gas finds off Israel’s coast in the Mediterranean have promised to transform the Jewish state into a significant energy power in its region.

The Tamar natural gasfield, which is due to begin producing in the second quarter of this year, is expected to contribute a percentage point to Israel’s projected 3.8 per cent growth in gross domestic product this year. Israel’s offshore gas reserve is one of the largest of its kind in the world and its potential output will greatly exceed Israel’s domestic needs, making the country an energy exporter.

The companies exploiting Tamar and the larger Leviathan field, Noble Energy and Delek Energy, have recently contacted potential customers in Turkey and Jordan who might be interested in taking gas via pipelines."

ElenorRigby Wed 04-Sep-13 09:46:52

"Turkish security forces found a 2kg cylinder with sarin gas after searching the homes of Syrian militants from the Al-Qaeda linked Al-Nusra Front who were previously detained, Turkish media reports. The gas was reportedly going to be used in a bomb.

The sarin gas was found in the homes of suspected Syrian Islamists detained in the southern provinces of Adana and Mersia following a search by Turkish police on Wednesday, reports say. The gas was allegedly going to be used to carry out an attack in the southern Turkish city of Adana.

On Monday, Turkish special anti-terror forces arrested 12 suspected members of the Al-Nusra Front, the Al-Qaeda affiliated group which has been dubbed “the most aggressive and successful arm” of the Syrian rebels. The group was designated a terrorist organization by the United States in December."
Link

"12 people from Syria's al Qaeda-linked al-Nusra Front who allegedly had been planning an attack inside Turkey and were in possession of 2 kg (4.5 pounds) of sarin, had been detained in Adana."
Reuters

At this point no one knows what's really gone on.
No one knows where this will lead.

All bets are off.

Yet again Goering's quote rings true:

"Naturally the common people don't want war: Neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, IT IS THE LEADERS of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is TELL THEM THEY ARE BEING ATTACKED, and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. IT WORKS THE SAME IN ANY COUNTRY."

--Goering at the Nuremberg Trials

niceguy2 Wed 04-Sep-13 09:30:01

Syria won't launch missiles on the US Navy. Assad's most likely course of action at the moment is to hide all the chemical weapons he has and let the US pound a few places to save face.

That way he can keep fighting having lost little in terms of capability. Attacking a US warship would be utterly stupid. The US would decimate his military and leave him at the mercy of the rebels. That would be so far over the red line that you couldn't even see the line anymore.

The US don't want to get involved. They just want to deter other rogue states from using chemical weapons in the future.

Assad is cruel, not stupid.

ElenorRigby Wed 04-Sep-13 09:15:59

"Russia has sold Syria highly advanced rocket launchers, anti-aircraft missiles and anti-ship missiles. In fact, the P-800 Yakhont anti-ship missiles that Russia has equipped Syria with are the most advanced anti-ship missiles that Russia has.

When the United States strikes Syria, they might be quite surprised at how hard Syria can hit back. The Syrian military is the most formidable adversary that the U.S. military has tangled with in the Middle East by far. From Syria, P-800 Yakhont anti-ship missiles can cover much of the eastern Mediterranean and can even reach air bases in Cyprus.

If the U.S. Navy is not very careful to stay out of range, we could easily see footage of destroyed U.S. naval vessels sinking into the Mediterranean Sea on the evening news. And once the American people see such footage, it will be impossible to stop a full-blown war between the United States and Syria."

Link

"In 2010 Sergei Prikhodko, senior adviser to the Russian President, has said that Russia intends to deliver P-800 to Syria based on the contracts signed in 2007.[3][4] Syria received 2 Bastion missile systems with 36 missiles each (72 in total).[5] The missiles' test was broadcast by Syrian state TV.[6]

In May 2013, Russia continued the contract delivery to the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad supplying missiles with an advanced radar to make them more effective to counter any future foreign military intervention.[7][8] The warehouse containing the Bastion launchers was destroyed in an Israeli air strike on Latakia on 5 July 2013, but US intelligence analysts believe that some missiles had been removed before the attack"
P-800 Oniks missiles on Wiki

PseudoBadger Wed 04-Sep-13 07:41:20

So when Putin says that American action would be 'an aggression' and it's too early to say what Russia would do if action were taken - what does that mean? Is this getting to WW3 territory? I've been in a toddler/late pregnancy bubble and this has crept up on me rather sad

niceguy2 Wed 04-Sep-13 00:02:50

Reading the news today I sense that Obama has been a lot clearer than Cameron about what he wants to achieve.

From what I see the US want to deter other rogue nations from contemplating using chemical weapons but crucially any strikes they don't want to upset the power balance. In other words, they don't want to degrade Assad's army.

I can see that making some sense albeit I'm not sure it's realistically possible. The munitions that they'd have to use are almost as terrible as the chemical weapons they are trying to destroy.

DC seems to have rushed to parliament with no real plan and understandably has been told to sod off.

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