Will DS get any offers?

[horsemadmom]

I'm sick with worry over DS who, after a solid 3A*6A and 1B at GCSE, got BCCD at AS Level. He knows he didn't work consistantly and left revision far too late. He was remarkably consistent in achieving As and Bs in 2/3 modules of each subject and D or E on the 3rd.
The school are predicting BBC which seems a little harsh to me given that his ASs were an aberration and he is now working like a dog and will resit the papers that went so wrong.
DS is about to put in his UCAS form (with an apparently stunningly good reference from the teacher in the broader subject he wishes to study) and just doesn't see any point in applying anywhere 2nd rate. His subject is a bit of an obscure variation of a mainstream subject and it took a lot of explanation from him to the school as they've never sent anyone for this sub-subject before. DS is only applying to 3 unis as they do the subject in the way that he wants but they are all RG/similar.
The courses are asking for between AAB and BBB. One course tutor at his favourite uni pulled him aside after they chatted for most of Open Day and told him to phone on results day if he had 'slipped under their offer' no matter what it said on Track. I'm worried that he may get sifted out with his ASs and predictions and never make it to the offer stage.
So, what do you think? Will his application be budgie cage liner this year? Is a gap year inevitable? Should I push him to communicate with admissions bods at his chosen unis to explain before the UCAS form goes in?

[Hakluyt]

I'm a bit puzzled at the school's predictions- I thought you were expected to go up a level for a2- so a mechanical prediction would surely be ABB?

Has he talked to his form tutor about his predicted grades?

[titchy]

Why would you go UP - A2 is harder, and the AS will be half the overall, so you'd have to do 2 grades better in the A2 year just to go up one grade (assuming no resits) - which is hard!

In his PS could he add the results of the two modules he did well in and say he intends to retake the third module?

He may well strike it lucky so well worth a go this year - lots of places this year ended up taking lower offers than they advertise so he's in with a good chance.

[Hakluyt]

I must be wrong- I'm sure that's what they told us at dd's school.

[titchy]

Our 6th form's standard prediction is whatever you got at AS, unless you were in the top 25% of A grades in which case they'll predict an A*

[horsemadmom]

Hakluyt, I think they are trying to scare him and it isn't an approach that works as he just feels demoralised. They have said that they will revisit his predictions before half term but I'm not sure how that works if his UCAS form must be in before then.
titchy, I think the retakes are mentioned in his reference. To compound it all, his main subject teacher has said that they have changed boards this year so he can't sit in on AS lessons and he'll need a tutor- after how much we've shelled out in fees?!?

[SolomanDaisy]

Could he take a year out and apply with his actual grades?

[SilasGreenback]

Could he be persuaded to use up all his options applying for the less specialised subject (and somewhere with lower grades). If he doesn't get offers from his first 3 choices, but exceeds the predicted grades he can always then take a year out and reapply.

Applying with his grades is all well and good if he does better than predicted, but if he doesn't, the extra year hanging about might be rather miserable if he still won't be able to do his preferred subject.

[horsemadmom]

He can take a gap year but would prefer not to. He's really keen to get started on his chosen course. It's his absolute passion.

[SunshineAndShadows]

Its worth discussing with his tutor, if his academic record is otherwise good and he recognises the AS results are a lack of graft rather than ability they may well be flexible.
My school over-predicted my grades after a discussion where i told them i wouldn't even be considered for interview without an AAB. I was lucky i got an offer for this and made it even when my actual A2 grades fell a little short. But i'd have had no chance of acing my interview or making the personal connections which influenced their decision to give me a place regardless if my grades if my predictions had not been high.

[funchum8am]

My school predicts one grade up at A2 from AS - yes they are harder but pupils work MUCH harder at A2 generally (in our experience at least - I work in a very large comprehensive school).

However if teachers have seen that he doesn't have the right work ethic that is probably why they are predicting lower. Resits are all very well but often pupils mean well but don't actually prepare properly for them because A2 is their main focus, so they don't always lead to higher grades.

He can always apply for the courses he really wants and then reapply again with his actual grades next year. It sounds like the one tutor really wanted him to apply so at least that university might give him a second look. I am not sure but I don' think they wouldn't reject him second time round (ie after a gap year) if he gets good grades in the end just because he applied the first time and wasn't successful.

[ImperialBlether]

He has to get that passion into his personal statement, then. That's what they will be looking at. If he shows passion and a wider reading already, then they will look favourably upon him.

I was an A2 tutor for many years and unless someone had scraped through a grade, we always predicted a higher grade, even if we were wary as to whether they would get it. That was so that they would actually get an offer. I think this is what needs to happen to your son now. He needs to persuade his tutors to predict BBB otherwise he risks not getting an offer.

Did the lecturer he spoke to know his name?

[Hakluyt]

"My school predicts one grade up at A2 from AS "

So glad you said that- I thought I was going mad!

[MillyMollyMama]

I know very few language students who will be predicted A after an A at AS. I know few Arts students who got AAA after AAA at AS. in some subjects the number of A* grades awarded is very low. Some subjects, maths and sciences, it is higher. Our school predicted on likely realistic achievement not a percentage or grade inflation.

BBB sounds reasonable OP and I would try and negotiate for that. Also why is he appplying this month? Surely he can wait a bit to get a more accurate handle on his capabilities and predictions? If the tutor (at the BBB university?) has pulled him to one side, they will make an offer and there is probably room for negotiation especially if the course is little known. Did it go into clearnig this year? If it did then you have more reason to be optimistic. Ditto the other two courses.

[Hakluyt]

"I know very few language students who will be predicted A* after an A at AS"

So no A* predictions at all?

[horsemadmom]

I'm hoping to discuss his predictions with his Head of 6th this week. It doesn't help that he has dropped his subject (the 'D grade') having decided almost immediately in yr 12 that he wasn't enjoying it. And why nobody pulled him aside and said 'Hey, Matey! You clearly have decided to declare this a dead loss and drop it. Why not switch to something else?'. This and many other niggles about his school.....
BTW- the B is in a subject usually taken in conjunction with maths (DS doesn't love maths) so DS taught himself the material required as no help was forthcoming from school.
I think that unless he is predicted ABB, nobody will bother reading his PS or recommendation. He has some really high level work experience in his subject as well as doing an external course in the sub-specialty.
I'm not in denial that he has screwed up but I just wish that I felt (and DS felt) that the school is on his side.
2 out of 3 of his courses came up in Clearing this year- should this make me hopeful or does this mean that the units stick to their entry requirements?

[Theas18]

even at the kids grammars A* are rarely predicted ( mainly because they are rarely a requirement and it's tempting the uni to offer you higher than maybe they would otherwise IYSWIM).

Our schools do not " predict up a grade" as a rule. DS managed to get an A prediction of the back of a B AS and managed the A but in needed near perfect scores and a module resit to do it. And the only resit is at the same time as A2..

[titchy]

He hasn't screwed up that badly! With good work experience and an external course his PS should be stellar, and if two of the three were in clearing that bodes very well.

Tbh it sounds quite niche and they probably won't have that many applicants so each PS will in all likelihood be read.

[horsemadmom]

Xpost with MMM-
The positive tutor was at the ABB uni. The subject requiring the A is DS's C in his predictions. School says they can't take his planned rest into account on it even though his module grades were A, High B and E. For some reason they weren't keen to have the E remarked and recommended resit. This is also the subject where they changed board and told him to hire a tutor. URGH!We are still waiting to have his script back since he has no idea how he could have done soooooo badly.
The BBB uni is notorious for never taking anyone at published offer. Above only.

[Kez100]

If it is a niche subject, how many courses are there to apply to? Can he not apply to 4 higher entry and 1 lower entry Uni as he has five choices.

[horsemadmom]

There are about 10 units that do the course. 5 offer a very watered down version and ask BBB/BBC. They looked seriously underfunded and ill equipped without enough contact hours for such a hands-on course.1 looked great on paper but DS hated the uni when he visited and the course was very geeky and theoretical. The 3 remaining gave him a good feeling and deliver the course in a serious academic way but don't loose sight of real world applications of the subject and graduates end up with real skills

[stonecircle]

I'm surprised that some schools have such a blunt method for predictions - ie predict one grade higher. My sister used to teach in a sixth form and she said that her department would take a range of factors into account - how much of a blip they felt a low grade was, what their attitude to work was, whether or not they had just scraped a grade. If someone just scraped a grade surely they'd be less likely to achieve the next grade than if they'd been at the top end of the band range?

[SolomanDaisy]

I think he probably needs to be realistic. If both his AS grades and predicted grades are lower than the usual offers and the unis are competitive, his chances of getting offers are not great, particularly with the key subject being a C. Obviously he can increase his chances with great related experience, but if these are competitive courses the vast majority of the applicants will have the right grades and, depending on the course, many may also have related experience. It also sounds like he is at private school, so there will be no benefit of the doubt that he might get coming from a low performing state school.

You probably need to help manage his expectations. He was lazy during AS year and that may have more consequences than he expected - either that he will need to expand the range of universities he considers or take a year out or be prepared to go through clearing. Or he might be lucky and not need to do any of those!

[Hakluyt]

I checked with dd last night. She was at a high achieving 6th form, and most people,unless they got 4 As at AS level (which not many did) were predicted a grade up at A2. But it was really laid on with a trowel that it meant hard work. The few who the school didn't think would knuckle down were predicted the same as they got for AS for A2.

[funchum8am]

We are asked to predict up a grade unless there are strong reasons not to, and to be fair we are indeed cautious about predicting A* without a very high A and confidence that the student will do the work. I was a bit blithe with my generalisation up thread, sorry. But the vast majority do end up with predictions one above AS grade, and while I am not a sixth form tutor at the moment, I am not aware of significant problems with inaccuracy resulting from this approach - certainly in the four subjects I am responsible for, we are generally very accurate.

If two of the courses were in clearing that bodes well, hopefully.

[Londonbug1]

Just joining this thread as in much the same boat here. Ds did unexpectedly badly in as levels and now in process of Ucas process.
He is very deflated and now seems very disengaged.
We seem to be pushing him along but I don't feel entirely comfortable with this.
It all seemed so easy when they were small