Can Scotland stop Brexit, or only delay it? (and would that be useful?)

(61 Posts)
DailyMailEthicalFail Mon 18-Jul-16 12:34:42

So, after Friday, May says she wont invoke Article 50 until all 'home nations' are happy.
Obviously, Sturgeon says Scotland is not happy (despite a million Scots voting Brexit which was enough in itself to sway the balance).

1st Qu:
However it seems she has gone on to say that Scotland can 'STOP' Brexit.
I thought that the SNP lawyers had been over this immediately after the result and assumed that they couldn't, technically, or would have been speaking about it before now.

So, is there fresh info afoot, or is NS just spouting off?

2nd Qu: would it be useful if Scotland could either stop or delay it?

presumably the Stop would be wildly popular among Bremainers.
but might the delay give time for the rest of Europe to have a re-think and we could hold on in a reformed EU?

Is this what May is hoping for?
ie, stand firm on Brexit but allow NS to be the one to 'prevent' it and then they are both happy?

isntithot Mon 18-Jul-16 12:53:15

Of course it shouldn't happen until all the home nations are happy or are the 62% of Scottish people that voted to remain just to be bloody ignored. I hope she stalls it, gets her ref and then little englanders can be blamed for the break up of the United Kingdom!! Viva Wee Nicky !!

cheeseandcrackers77 Mon 18-Jul-16 13:15:42

But is it 62%. I'm sorry but Nicola Sturgeon telling the people of Scotland if you want another independence vote, vote remain means we don't have a true idea of what the people of Scotland want with regards to the EU. In my view she has manipulated the Scottish vote.

BengalCatMum Mon 18-Jul-16 13:24:35

We are leaving; the longer we mess about longing it out, the worse position we will be in to take the real Brexit hit.

So I hope Scotland do what they wish within the UK's overall time frame.

ginghambox Mon 18-Jul-16 13:28:42

Did Scotland have a different ballot paper to everyone else?
The one I voted on said,

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

Remain a member of the European Union
Leave the European Union

No mention of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales or anywhere else.

bluebloom Mon 18-Jul-16 13:35:20

Yes ginghambox of course it was the same, the point is that Scotland voted very differently to England & Wales. When you combine that with the political feeling in Scotland over the last few years- the very close indy ref results & the popularity of pro-independence parties such as SNP & Greens- it's hardly surprising we're exploring alternative options.
As isntithot said viva wee nicky!

Kirriemuir Mon 18-Jul-16 13:37:02

I am sick of hearing about Nicola bloody Sturgeon. She doesn't and never has spoken for me. The result is as declared. Just bloody get on with it.

RedHareWithBlondeHair Mon 18-Jul-16 13:40:06

The thing is, the Law isn't entirely squarely clear on this. In principle Scotland can't hold the Brexiteers hostage - in simple terms - as a current member of the UK union Scotland must tow the same line as the rest of us. If it should so choose to it can re-apply for EU membership which Spain is almost certain to refuse. She's therefore on very shaky ground as if Scottish independence wins and they're refused EU membership they'll be so far up shit creek they won't know whats hit them.

From my legal knowledge about this, whatever happens will most definitely set a precedent as there is no comparable instance of what is currently going on. This means you'll have lawyers whom depending on their political leanings will peddle a certain aspect of the Law to carry their favour.

In short, the UK leaving would set a precedent for other European countries wondering what their own positions would be in light of their own exit from the EU. If Scotland can wrangle themselves a position in the EU without the rest of the UK that also sets a precedent. None of which other European leaders want as it's exactly like the UK having their cake and everyone else watching them eat it without so much as a morsel for themselves.

Sturgeon, as much as a formidable leader she is, is operating on the basis that Scotland can do whatever the fuck they want without any reproach. It just doesn't work that way and she knows it. A great deal of it is grand-standing so she can at least have been seen to do something. It'd take a legal leap dance and miracle for her to get her own way.

I also get the feeling that many people don't understand what Article 50 is. It's a relatively new creation which is what you can make of it. It in and of itself is not a guide book - it is basically no-mans land. Which is why May is playing the long game.

RedHareWithBlondeHair Mon 18-Jul-16 13:43:36

In my essay I didn't really make short succinct answers to your questions op grin.

1) No they can't. For reasons I've explained in my essay above.

2) It would be useful in order to hash out what sort of relationship we'd go on to have with the EU. Time is important as once the 2-year Article 50 is invoked we'd basically be given a baguette and an espresso and told to go well as there's no turning back.

cheeseandcrackers77 Mon 18-Jul-16 13:44:18

Bluebloom but do you not see that our vote was manipulated by her.

You only need to look at the pro indy Facebook pages where lots of yes voters do not want to be in the EU but are so desperate for indy they will do whatever NS says. These people truly believe we will get an indy vote be independent and then will be given another vote on the EU. No we will not the SNP are pro EU they will never give us a vote on it once they get their own way.

I believe the way to go is for NS to stop thinking of indy and work with the UK government on getting the best deal for the UK. Once we have had a few years working under whatever the deal is then approach the idea of indy.

Modalverb1 Mon 18-Jul-16 13:45:39

The UK isn't leaving the EU. TMAY would have triggered Article 50 straightaway if we were going to leave. She's playing the long game. Thank God.

akkakk Mon 18-Jul-16 13:52:16

Yes ginghambox of course it was the same, the point is that Scotland voted very differently to England & Wales

and???

so if my village voted remain does it have a legal right to stop the UK leaving the EU...? grin

nope

nor does Scotland

lets recognise political dances when we see them - the PM is hardly going to go to Scotland and tell them to get stuffed grin she does what politicians do - gives them the sound bites they want to make it look as though they are / will be involved - and give themselves enough room to carry on doing what they need to...

if the PM had said tough to NS then she would have had something to fight against - this way there is nothing for Sturgeon to fight against, without a commitment to pausing / changing Brexit...

The reality is that the PM has to Brexit now - that is her job, and one area within the UK won't change that... As for Scotland going to the EU separately I think that NS tried that a few weeks ago and was told to get lost! Scotland is not an independent nation / can only have a second independence vote if Westminster agrees / can not join the EU without being independent / can not stop Brexit...

Kirriemuir Mon 18-Jul-16 13:52:22

What rubbish modalverb.

mzS1990 Mon 18-Jul-16 13:59:53

Sturgeon gets right on my nerves. We are all classed as one. It was a vote. Majority of us voted leave. The end. The were loads of Scottish that voted leave. There were loads of English and Welsh that voted remain. We need to get on with it

SoThisIsSummer Mon 18-Jul-16 14:09:04

Sturgeon, as much as a formidable leader she is, is operating on the basis that Scotland can do whatever the fuck they want without any reproach. It just doesn't work that way and she knows it. A great deal of it is grand-standing so she can at least have been seen to do something. It'd take a legal leap dance and miracle for her to get her own way

^^ This.

and this

"Sturgeon gets right on my nerves. We are all classed as one. It was a vote. Majority of us voted leave. The end. The were loads of Scottish that voted leave. There were loads of English and Welsh that voted remain. We need to get on with it"

^^ Indeed. Her nose is pushed out.

Iggi999 Mon 18-Jul-16 14:11:44

Brexit is the surest way I can think of to bring about Scottish independence. Thank goodness.

PortiaCastis Mon 18-Jul-16 14:17:17

Interested to know how Scotland would cope on their own wrt their economy

DailyMailEthicalFail Mon 18-Jul-16 14:31:29

Well I know that a million Scots voted Brexit, so it was not ALL Scots by any means.
Also if we are saying Brexit means Brexit then IndyRef means IndyRef, not IndyRef1.

Scotland is a huge net benefiter from the EU membership.
Without it, and with Independence, I think the economy would be screwed.
H and I were talking about this last night.

I think the SNP will 'see sense'.
He thinks they will carry on, over the edge of the cliff economically, Roadrunner style and that in 10 years Ruth Davidson will be in charge.

I know that in other areas, such as Trident, the SNP does not reflect the breadth of opinion of voters. In areas such as the Named Person legislation, the SNP seems happy to work on the very edge of legality (see current Supreme Court case) and in areas such as Education, where there has been a huge failure, they keep very quiet about changing direction significantly (CforE becomes English style Primary Testing).

I also don't think we will actually leave the EU but will stay in a very different EU (which would be a good compromise).

NS doesn't speak for all Scotland. The Saltire does not belong to the SNP.
I think she got the flick off in the EU and that if the SNP believed they had a sound legal basis for stopping Brexit then they would. But I don't think they do. I think it is all sound and fury.

AddToBasket Mon 18-Jul-16 14:48:05

I predict Europe is going to totally derail Nicola Sturgeon.

The thing is she pretty much has no powers when it comes to negotiations with Europe:

1) She can't go to Europe and fix trade deals because that is co-ordinated at UK level.
2) She has very few allies (except Gibraltar). Europe don't want to please Scotland because of various countries' own domestic concerns about separatist movements.
3) What currency is she discussing? Sterling? Euros? Bawbies? Scotland alone wouldn't meet the economic criteria to join the Euro. Post-Greece, no country is going to be allowed in without that.
4)Heads of government, banks and so on are busy. They have no time to meet with her to plan a pretend scenario in which she a) wins independence b) solves the currency question. It would be pointless discussion of hot air.

So she can't actually achieve anything at this stage.

What's more, Theresa May has effectively told her to go away and settle on her position, which is something NS doesn't want to do. TM has played a blinder: basically saying to NS that NS is going to have to what she has to do. Put up or shut up.

And NS will not call another referendum cos she'll lose it (why? Oil, currency, voter apathy). And then she'll be screwed either way: for not calling a referendum, or for calling one and losing.

PortiaCastis Mon 18-Jul-16 14:49:09

Thanks DM

cheeseandcrackers77 Mon 18-Jul-16 14:55:48

DAILYMAIL I kinda see where your husband is with his thinking. My mum said yesterday the SNP seem hell bent on doing what they want and have far too many (not all) supporters who will let them away with everything and anything. I can see them screwing up Scotland for generations to come and not caring as they just want to go down in history as the people who gave Scotland their independence.

I don't however think N'S hold any control over Brexit.

DailyMailEthicalFail Mon 18-Jul-16 15:01:23

Portia tis just my opinion which is woefully uninformed compared to many on here. I really enjoy following political threads tho - I learn so much.

Basket:
"What's more, Theresa May has effectively told her to go away and settle on her position, which is something NS doesn't want to do. TM has played a blinder: basically saying to NS that NS is going to have to what she has to do. Put up or shut up. "

That's the thing with the SNP. For years they have been able to (possibly correctly) rail against Westminster. However since they have had power they seem much less keen to put up or shut up. Take Education for example. Devolved, and in 10 years it has been like a race to the bottom. I know English education has also been badly interfered with by politicos but what has happened to Primary Education has been really shameful. The SNP don't even KNOW how bad it is in many areas. Now they are speaking (quietly) of introducing English style SATS as they realise what a shambles it has become.

Sadly, I suspect another bloody IndyRef would go Yes this time tho? sad

DailyMailEthicalFail Mon 18-Jul-16 15:08:06

cheese Yy to 'their place in history'. And the blind following.
I know a fellow local Mum. A senior nurse. A good woman. Who is also aware of local politics / NHS failures etc so not naive by any means.
Then I saw the meme she had of NS on her phone as she scrolled through.
Vile racism. I doubt NS said it but there it was in all it's glory.
The sort of thing that was in Germany in the late 1930's.
It was 'doing the rounds' on facebook and 'was one of the most popular'.
I was properly stunned.
She just chuckled.

cheeseandcrackers77 Mon 18-Jul-16 15:23:41

Dailymail I've said it before on other threads but I know a strong SNP supporter she daily lectures everyone at work on how great they are must be followed at all costs. Doesn't care education is a mess thinks anyone who votes any other party is scum and are anti Scottish. She is a senior member of staff and truly believes everything she spouts (I wish management would do something)
Sadly she reflects a lot of SNP supporters. I don't want to live in a country where people believe in unwavering support for a political party.
I've seen some horrible memes on FB probably similar to what you did. Again they think it's funny.

PortiaCastis Mon 18-Jul-16 15:31:28

DM Well thank you for expressing hour opinion. I like reading the political threads on here also. There are a lot of well informed people with differing points of view and I have learnt quite a lot. My forte is accounting albeit for local small businesses in England and my family. My Mum owns 3 holiday lets and still works as a teacher so I help her with her ins and outs.
I find politics very interesting especially at the moment. So much going on!

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