Lets start at the beginning. What constitutes the completion of Brexit ?

(41 Posts)
LurkingHusband Wed 13-Jul-16 16:14:41

Not as daft a question as it seems, given the track record of successive UK government failing to declare in advance what a successful project conclusion looks like.

So, what criteria should be used to determine when we have completed Brexit ? Repeal of the 1972 ECA ? Article 50 + 2 years ? Or (my feeling) "never" ?

GrandadGrumps Wed 13-Jul-16 16:31:43

When we've actually left the EU, which will be a maximum of 2 years after Article 50 is triggered I believe.

As for 'never', I've not come to a decision on that but can TM possibly drag her feet until after the next election without handing over power to UKIP? Surely we have to leave or risk that? I can't think of another way to play it at this stage.

LurkingHusband Wed 13-Jul-16 16:37:37

When we've actually left the EU, which will be a maximum of 2 years after Article 50 is triggered I believe.

Minimum, surely ?

OK, so a line in the sand - A50+730.5 days. Seems clear enough to me. Anybody else ?

So the flipside of that is if A50 is never invoked, we will not have left ?

lljkk Wed 13-Jul-16 16:49:29

What I expect is
1. We trigger A50 (probably early January next yr)
2. A50 process takes anywhere between 18m-5/6 yrs to complete. It will all be about undoing our contractual obligations, pensions & final payment settlement & status of mutual nationals & so on, without any new trade /etc. deals being established.
3. Then 5-15 yrs of following negotiations about markets & labour. The temporal finish line will be fuzzy not precise. The EU will evolve, what we want will evolve, so never ending.

TwoWeeksInCyprus Wed 13-Jul-16 16:51:21

I think the 2 years could be extended if all member states agree.

LurkingHusband Wed 13-Jul-16 16:54:17

I suspect this is the gift that will keep on giving ... from now on any government has a ready-made excuse for things going titsup. And will have for years.

Those of us of a certain age will remember that "it's the common market" was the reason for everything from bad weather to losing Wimbledon.

But that's how govenments work. Vague promises, never a definitive goal, and endless buck passing. Wish I could work on projects like that. Rather unreasonably, we are expected to detail in advance what metrics indicate success.

LurkingHusband Wed 13-Jul-16 16:55:30

I think the 2 years could be extended if all member states agree

Not going to happen though, is it ? No skin of their nose if the UK can't complete everything in two years.

GrandadGrumps Wed 13-Jul-16 16:57:19

I've re-read it, it's actually an undefined time which will be set by agreement OR a maximum of 2 years OR a longer period if both parties agree to an extension.

So neither a maximum nor a minimum.

EverythingWillBeFine Wed 13-Jul-16 16:57:38

What do you call Brexit?
Is it been completely out of the EU or being on the EEA?
If we get the second, free trade area but with free movement had oeople etc... But you wanted the first, it will feel like never itswim

GrandadGrumps Wed 13-Jul-16 17:01:30

So if we drag our feet won't the rabble electorate just vote UKIP at the next election in the expectation that they'll just stick two fingers up at the EU and complete the withdrawal at any cost?

ChardonnayKnickertonSmythe Wed 13-Jul-16 17:03:14

Well, why not start even more at the beginning?

What is Brexit?

LurkingHusband Wed 13-Jul-16 17:04:38

I suspect "Brexit" will be so fudged in 6 months, nobody will be able to tell if we are in or out. Thus equally pissing off both sides.

Really, politically, it's the only way you are ever going to keep a 50/50 split happy.

In a way, it's what the leavers wanted anyway. They hardly told us what post-Brexit looks like, so they['ll have to lump it as much as the remainers.

LurkingHusband Wed 13-Jul-16 17:05:31

So if we drag our feet won't the rabble electorate just vote UKIP at the next election in the expectation that they'll just stick two fingers up at the EU and complete the withdrawal at any cost?

I feel you are crediting UKIP with too much attention span.

Namehanger Wed 13-Jul-16 18:13:25

I think the problem is we sort of assume that because she was a remainer, a woman, pragmatic that she is looking of ways to fudge/stop brexit. I think that is a dangerous assumption to make.

Thegirlinthefireplace Wed 13-Jul-16 18:28:05

I disagree name hanger, if you are working on the basis that she is pragmatic then you have to assume she will attempt to fudge Brexit to an extent, flinging yourself off a cliff is not the action of a pragmatist!

LurkingHusband Wed 13-Jul-16 18:29:11

I think the problem is we sort of assume that because she was a remainer, a woman, pragmatic that she is looking of ways to fudge/stop brexit. I think that is a dangerous assumption to make.

I think the issue is bigger than any individual.

I also think there are a considerable number of people in both camps that have a vested interest in seeing Brexit fudged. Obviously Remainers. But on the other side, the Brexiters who didn't really want Brexit ... they are now in a position where they can argue amongst themselves for a long time about what they "really wanted". Whilst in the meantime, fuck all gets done.

In fact, a really savvy PM would appoint a Brexit committee. Pack it with Brexiteers, promise to carry out whatever they agree on and sit back. Because the chances of 3 Brexiteers agreeing on anything is slim.

Mistigri Wed 13-Jul-16 18:30:00

I think May will want to make a serious attempt at implementing brexit. The problem is how. There are so many complex issues that need to be resolved, if possible before invoking A50 and risking a "hard exit" - not just economic problems, but legal and constitutional problems especially relating to Scotland and N. Ireland.

ATEOTD you can ignore economic risks - you do it at your peril, but a government which wants to crash the economy by cutting it off from its most important trading partner can legally do that. But it can't ignore legal/ constitutional issues because the government is subject to an independent judiciary.

If brexit gets terminally delayed, then it will be because it's very legally complex and no work was done up front by either side on planning how it might be implemented.

Namehanger Wed 13-Jul-16 18:30:06

LH - let's hope so !

Thegirlinthefireplace Wed 13-Jul-16 18:38:59

You see I think terminal delay is a terrible idea, we can't get on with anything while we are still officially a member, we won't get investment/companies will continue to pull out due to the uncertainty, we'll still have to contribute as we are still members but won't be included in any discussions or get any funding. It's an awful idea to just sit and do nothing. Either stop Brexit or start trying to organise EEA scenario but please to god don't sit in limbo or jump off the cliff.

EverythingWillBeFine Wed 13-Jul-16 20:03:11

TM has already said that we will leave the EU
here for her speech

What she hasn't said, as far as I know is what kind of Brexit it will be.
But TBH she has no choice. The population said that's what we want. Going against it would be a mockery of the democratic process (and probably a political suicide too).
What she will try and do is navigate the waters to keep more or less everyone happy. The ones that want control at the borders, the ones that want the free trade, the ones that want to still go to Europe easily.
What we might end up with is a free trade agreement, no major change re free movement but some borders control (that we still have anyway, unlike any other EU contry) and more 'rules' about who can come (which will simply be applying the existing EU rules that no one had bothered with before hand...)

lljkk Wed 13-Jul-16 20:06:34

I have been reading about Israel model for relationship with EU. Can't say I'm thrilled about it.

EverythingWillBeFine Wed 13-Jul-16 21:07:04

What's the Israel model?

papayasareyum Wed 13-Jul-16 21:13:21

Theresa May was a soft remainer. She's always been eurosceptic. She was playing a clever political game. She won. She's ss eurosceptic as David Davis and Andrea Leadsom, if not more so. If she wanted to dodge brexit, she wouldn't have put Mr. Eurosceptic David Davis specifically in charge of removing us from the EU. We'll be out within a year at the the most.

lljkk Thu 14-Jul-16 11:17:37

According to Wikipedia, Israel has a free trade agreement with EU for manufactured goods & concessions on agricultural goods. There is nothing covering financial services for Israel-EU. There is no FOM. That's got to be much closer to what most Brexiters want, compared to Norway model.

Underparmummy Thu 14-Jul-16 11:48:04

I think for the most part for the 'Leavers' Brexit will be achieved when immigration is addressed to their satisfaction (whatever that is...).

Agree TM is actually a Brexiteer.

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