Brexit and Ireland - any insights?(67 Posts)
I've seen a few comments on Ireland in other threads and would be really interested to know how Irish people and others with any knowledge of it think Brexit will affect Ireland?
DH DS and I are moving within the next month to the Republic - Letterkenny area, ish, so near the border.
I ask not because I'm worried about things effecting us personally exactly but just because I'm interested. I've been going there all my life (my grandma has lived there 40 years and mum was born in Dublin so am a duel citizen) and wonder what people both in the Republic and also in NI think will be the effects.
How are you feeling about things?
I'm in Dublin and I've been listening to the radio. It's all doom and gloom really but it's going to depend a lot on how the exit happens, can we still maintain our special relationship, perhaps special trade agreements.
My American SIL living in England, (married to my Irish Brother) said she feels like she's been kicked it the stomach.
'a death in the family' in the media here in Ireland.
Watching rate news its reported border trading is unfavourable for the south. Newry is preparing for a shopping boom. eventually stability with euro to sterling but initially weak.
It's a clusterfuck for Ireland.
We've got the only land border with the UK. Immigrants are going to come into the Republic now to try to get into the UK via the border.
That means the British will have to police the border again. Possibly opening up the troubles again.
No more free movement of people and goods. No more 'special relationship' between Britain and Ireland.
A bilateral agreement between us wont be allowed by the EU.
Economic recovery has begun here after a bad recession. This is the last thing we need.
Scarlet - do you not think UK exit will mean more companies establishing bases in Ireland? Well qualified workforce, good infrastructure, English speaking...
It will, but apparently the benefits of that will be swallowed by the losses we'll incur.
It seems the biggest impact will be agriculture. Couldn't believe listening to radio today how much beef is exported to the UK and the fear this will go to the South American market .
The problem is the EU probably won't let us enter into any bilateral deals with the UK as they're going to try make things as difficult as possible for the UK and they won't care if lil' ol' Ireland is inconvenienced. We'd be just collateral damage. I understand that the Nordic countries have special trade agreements with Norway who are outside the EU but our govt are so spineless and useless they'd never get the same concessions in a million years.
Ireland isn't the only EU country that the UK shares a land border with, technically Spain is too if you count Gibraltar. But realistically, the Irish border could be seen as a soft underbelly into the UK. All you'd need to do is sneak over the border, ferry from Larne and you're in mainland Britain. So if the leave campaign are as serious about "controlling immigration" as they would have you believe, they're going to have to beef up security on the Irish border; a return to checkpoints, soldiers with machine guns, the works. That scenario would definitely harden republican sentiment in NI who can now say "we've been good little boys, accepted the Good Friday Agreement, accepted the principle of consent and now they're building military blockades between us and the south".
That's why I'm amazed the DUP campaigned for leave. If it was for some petty point scoring tactic to reintroduce a "hard" border with the Republic it would be pretty stupid - many Catholics in the north, while self identifying as Irish, were fairly satisfied in the UK - many may even have voted unionist. Even if the Catholic-Protestant population in the North reached near-parity, a sizeable number of middle to upper class Catholics would not vote for a united Ireland. Being hoisted out of the EU against their will could possibly change their attitude. Added to the fact that of all regions in the UK, NI probably benefits most from EU membership and suffers least from the dreaded "IMMIGRAAASHUNN". I really don't know what the DUP were playing at.
It's so depressing.
What do you think is likely to happen to the Republic IrishDad ?
Could we follow Britain out of the EU and link our economy to the pound again? Is that viable or would our economy implode without Europe? It would wouldn't it....?
Will the border issue spark a civil war of sorts now?
Nah, we're in the EU and the eurozone for the long haul now. Up to the banking collapse EU membership has been fantastic for us. But the UK is our largest trading partner and we're the most exposed of any of the EU countries to their exit. If we're allowed special concessions to trade with the UK things may carry on as (relatively) normal but like I said, the EU are going to make things as difficult as possible for the UK and our feelings won't come into it I'm afraid. But really I don't know scarlet, it's uncharted territories so everyone's just guessing!
Yes I would be worried that dissident republicans use brexit as an excuse to restart their "campaign". Ironic given that Sinn Fein were strident opponents of Ireland's joining the EU in the first place.
What do you think of the Irish diaspora in Britain invoking their ability to get an Irish passport/citizenship to get EU benefits for themselves and their kids? I am tempted. I voted remain and one of the reasons I did so was I was concerned about the impact on Ireland especially community relations in the North.
What is most shameful is how the Leavers have thrown the Gibraltarians under the bus. They want to be British cf the Ulster unionists but relied on the open border with Spain and free movement of people for their economy.
Perhaps somewhere in this mess there is a bright side but cannot see it at the moment.
Scarlet the bilateral agreements between the UK and Ireland were in place before both countries joined the EU. Ireland is also not in the Schengen so not 'free flow' as on the continent. DH thinks the border will stay open and then closed off at exit points in NI and poss also the Republic. I really can't see them re-erecting the border. I grew up in NI and it would be a huge step back.
Ireland is fucked I'm afraid.
You'll end up following us out whether you realise it yet or not. The sooner you do the more offshore tax avoiding companies will stay. Tariffs will really kill some of them quickly, Amazon and Google for instance.
Don't worry though, we in the UK will take care of you. Hell up until a few years ago I thought of our EU contribution as the Irish sympathy fund, basically all those slightly overlarge and pointless roads etc were funded by the UK taxpayer. No longer though.
If it was up to the Irish I wouldn't be worried. Simply put though the EU see it as their border and your politicians are arguably even weaker than ours..
The EU has served its purpose for Ireland, and whilst I understand it is popular now my crystal ball sees some major strife if you hold on too long.
Spin - You guys have done enough damage to yourselves and others this week. You aren't in a position to give credible advice. And I trust our politicians a hell of a lot more than yours at the moment - they may be eejits at times, but have not (this time) fucked up the prosperity and economic security of the country, put the island of Ireland at real risk of civil war and the whole of Europe at risk of collapse for some short term personal political. Our guys have pulled some strokes in their time, but never anything as monumentally stupid as this.
So fuck off with your patronising attitude of what Ireland needs. The last thing we will be doing is taking British advice at the moment. Gobshite
Thankfully Spin, we're an independent country so our future is not predicated on the whims of a 17 million Jeremy Kyle audience.
Re passports, my brother is one of those scumbag EU immigrants to the UK that the leave campaign were whipping little England into a frenzy over, but luckily he's already got an Irish passport for his one year old.
Thanks for the advice Spin - we won't be making our decisions based on the opinions of daily mail readers.
The news is doom and gloom. Brexit will have immediate effects on our economy. Because sterling is crashing our exports to the uk market will be affected. The U.K. Market is a key market for us particularly for agriculture.
The north will be the most seriously affected in the long term as borders will need to return. This is predicted to upset the peace process as a key part is Freedom of movement between north and the republic. There are calls for a referendum for a united Ireland in the north which likely won't happen as it would serve only to open old wounds. It's a tragedy for the north to be honest.
We'll also have lost our main ally in the EU. The U.K. and Ireland often supported each other and now we'll be doing it alone.
No good news really. People are pretty shocked that the UK have voted to launch themselves into the unknown . The only certainty is economic and political turmoil. I don't understand it at all - the only explanation is that a large portion of the British public felt like things couldn't get any worse.
I live in NI but am from the Republic. I work in a very border area in the financial sector (and suspect my job will be fucked) and I really think we are fucked across the whole Ireland. I have had meetings over the past few days and people in the area are frightened that they will be forced back into having a closed border - they still remember soldiers in towers looking down over the villages and peering in through their kitchen windows. This could definitely inflame things here along the border and it doesn't seem like anyone has thought about it or gives a shit.
There are mutterings from strong republicans about having a border poll - and that will not go well and therefore I suspect lead to some trouble. The 12th of July is coming up too.
On the other hand I hear the smugglers are quite happy
Charles Haughey's statement on Bertie Ahearn '..... the most devious of them all...'
I think Bertie has lost that accolade... it has been passed to Boris Johnson
How many saw that coming?
Boris not going for leadership.
He's left a right mess to be cleared.
Todays statement from Mark Carney, Bank of England spelling out his short/mid term view, I think puts Ireland and NI in an absolutely fantastic position.. Ill explain why, and of course, it is just my opinion.
Mark Carney has announced short to mid term, they will cut the base rate. Now he cant go down far, as at 0.5% theres not much room for anything. So most pundits are in agreement the base rate will go to about 0.25%.
Mark Carney has also announced base rate cuts on commercial lending. This is hugely significant, as it is a massive attraction for investors to borrow.
There is and will continue to be sustained low interest rates for the next 5, 6 years, even some pundits feel, maybe dropping into negative rates. The BoE were indeed prepared for a Brexit vote, and they have have mitigated their risks, whatever deal is thrashed out with the EU.
He was clear to say, you cant anticipate fully what may happen, and there will be forces outside their control that could impact monetary policy, but, IMO, the BoE are pretty good at covering their arses.
So how does that affect Ireland and NI.
You have a unique situation in Ireland and NI. And in very simplistic terms, Ireland has the gateway to the single market, and NI has access to what will be the cheapest borrowing in the world on a secure, uninterfered with £ sterling.
For me, this is an absolutely fantastic situation. Sure, its just IMO. But with co-operation and the respect you guys have shown each other in the last generation, this is a world changing powerhouse about to be born, relying on each retaining their unique identity.
Don't worry though, we in the UK will take care of you. Hell up until a few years ago I thought of our EU contribution as the Irish sympathy fund, basically all those slightly overlarge and pointless roads etc were funded by the UK taxpayer. No longer though
What a condescending pompous arse - are you Nigel Farage by any chance?
Spin I wouldn't take your piss if I was on fire, we're no charity case
Probably one of those two faced Leave voters now queuing up for an Irish Passport
Jesus how condescending Spin. Think I will stick with the other Irish threads on Brexit.
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