I'm still on the fence and will spend the rest of the evening reading all sorts, but for now I have two questions:

(42 Posts)
WhereTheFuckIsWonderWoman Wed 22-Jun-16 20:09:45

Sorry if they've been covered in other threads:

1) I've heard that if we leave it comes with a clause that allows us to re-enter the EU within five years. Is there any truth in this?

2) I also heard (fairly certain it was in the Standard) that this referendum is actually just our opportunity to say to parliament that we want them to vote on it. Given that 70% of MPs are said to be on the remain side, this presumably means that even if Brexit wins at the polls there's no guarantee at all that we actually leave confused

Oh and a third:
Can someone talk Turkey to me? Are they definitely likely to become a member in the near future?

Thank you!

Arcadia Wed 22-Jun-16 20:14:08

1. Not true - announced today by EU that if we leave we leave and that's it;
2. Not true - a referendum is exactly that; could threaten current government but they will have to enact it;
3. Turkey are WAY off meeting the criteria to join - so far they only fulfill one of the many criteria required.
This is based on mainly Radio 4 info I think!

Hamishandthefoxes Wed 22-Jun-16 20:14:37

1) not true - we'd have to reapply and any of the other countries could veto our application.

2) it does need an act of Parliament, but the MPs hands would be pretty effectively tied by the referendum. If they voted against despite the referendum they wouldn't get through another election.

3) not true. See 1) any country can veto. If we remain in the eu we can veto Turkey joining.

3)

ThroughThickAndThin01 Wed 22-Jun-16 20:16:42

1. Not true
2. Not true
3. I absolutely don't trust them on this.

Arcadia Wed 22-Jun-16 20:16:46

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35832035

Turkey has only met 1 of 35 policy areas and any country could veto entry

WhereTheFuckIsWonderWoman Wed 22-Jun-16 20:18:49

Don't trust who ThickandThin?

WhereTheFuckIsWonderWoman Wed 22-Jun-16 20:19:08

Thanks by the way

ThroughThickAndThin01 Wed 22-Jun-16 20:23:02

The eu leaders, op.

TheClacksAreDown Wed 22-Jun-16 20:23:35

No
No
No

MrsGradyOldLady Wed 22-Jun-16 20:27:05

I can't see the UK using a veto against Turkey. Maybe Cyprus would?

Swirlingasong Wed 22-Jun-16 20:27:56

1. Not true
2. An act of parliament is needed but a government wouldn't last long if they disregarded a referendum. I do however think it will all take a loooong time if we vote to leave so wonder what happens if the government changes in that time anyway? Can another party then keep us in?
3. I doubt it. I don't think the EU really wants a direct border with the Middle East. I suspect they do want to keep Turkey as a friendly buffer though.

Jayfee Wed 22-Jun-16 20:30:02

The opposite is true. Vote out and we can only go back in if the other countries let us. Vote to remain in and because we are a democracy, we can ask our parliament for another referendum later if we want one.

If you aren't sure take a look at Martin Lewis Money Saving expert who gives a short summary of both sides. I am for remain for my future and my children's.

Kimononono Wed 22-Jun-16 20:33:10

I don't trust them either on the Turkey issue either especially with John Major slipping up today and saying they are already having accelerated talks and will be pushing forward to sign them up the day after our vote. Why the secrecy? Why was Ducan lain smith spitting mad about it calling David Cameron a liar and saying it was supposed to be hidden untill after the referendum.

In fact I'm really surprised I haven't seen it on any other news channel, I wonder if he was actually supposed to talk about it

The Turkey issue: on a brutally cynical level, the policy seems to be to keep dangling the prospect of EU membership in front of them while never actually letting them get it.

As mentioned, they are a long way short of the human rights (etc) steps they'd need to take to be admitted to the EU. If they were in a position to be admitted, the world would be a considerably different (and better) place from what it is today.

Mishaps Wed 22-Jun-16 20:38:54

fullfact.org/europe/

Try this link. Full Fact exist to check the validity of politicians' claims and have been doing a lot of fact checking over EU the referendum. Thye are impartial.

Kimononono Wed 22-Jun-16 20:41:37

I agree to a point about the human rights issue but when has that ever bothered Cameron? He is up the Saudi Kings arse (they still crucify) and he voted them in to the UN shock

Vango Wed 22-Jun-16 20:52:47

If you're seriously undecided this is quite useful.

Mistigri Wed 22-Jun-16 21:13:20

1. Not true. It would be possible to apply to rejoin the EU at a future date, but it would be on the EU's terms (which most likely would mean no opt outs from the euro, Schenghen and closer union) and would not be possible in a 5 year time-frame.

2. The decision to take the formal steps to trigger a brexit lies with the government, not parliament. It does this by formally declaring its intention to leave under "article 50" of the Lisbon treaty. Parliament may be called upon to ratify the terms of the brexit once they have been agreed with the EU, but parliament has no say over whether we leave or not - that decision is down to the government alone.

3. Turkey. Applied to join the EU in 1997 (or 8, don't quote me). Started formal negotiations in 2005. In that time, it has completed one out of the 35 "chapters" it must ratify before joining. It's safe to say that the accession of any new members is a decade away (at least) - certainly much longer in Turkey's case.

Kimononono Wed 22-Jun-16 21:15:40

But what happens after the decade is up?

Mistigri Wed 22-Jun-16 21:15:58

The Turkey issue: on a brutally cynical level, the policy seems to be to keep dangling the prospect of EU membership in front of them while never actually letting them get it.

Brutally cynical, but probably true. They have moved further away from EU membership in the last decade, not closer.

Mistigri Wed 22-Jun-16 21:19:08

But what happens after the decade is up?

There's a moratorium on new members at the moment so there are unlikely to be any new members in the next 10 years. After that there are 2-3 smaller countries which may have a shot at membership, although all face hurdles. In fact I have seen it argued convincingly that the next new EU member is most likely to be Norway - and I think both leave and remain camps would agree that that's not very likely.

As the EU grows, so do the hurdles for new members, because any existing member has an absolute right of veto.

Kimononono Wed 22-Jun-16 21:38:48

I'm confused now! Lain Duncan Smith was emphatic today on tv that John Major slipped up and said there was accelerated talks to rush it through? These talks were behind closed doors and the Turkish foreign minister was supposed to be said to getting pissed off that Cameron is his biggest supporter behind closed doors but saying the opposite in front of public.

It's one of my deciding factors 🙈

colouringinagain Wed 22-Jun-16 21:46:28

Extremely unlikely that Turkey will become a member within a decade, if ever.

Mistigri Wed 22-Jun-16 21:56:57

kimono it wouldn't be surprising if the Turkish were pissed off about being strung along, but the reality (and they must know it) is that Turkey has little chance of accession in the foreseeable future even with the support of the British (and remember that Boris Johnson himself has been one of the strongest supporters of Turkish accession in the past).

The reality is that several countries would veto Turkey's accession even if the UK and Germany agreed to it - there is no way that France would accept it not to mention Cyprus.

RedToothBrush Wed 22-Jun-16 22:00:32

They have 'opened' talks again.

What this means is they are talking to Turkey. They have done a lot of opening and closing talks with Turkey.

Since 1987.

I don't think talking to Turkey again, means a lot more. Of course people will be reading all sorts into this, but the reality is, that joining the EU, takes a lot of talking.

Especially if you are not managing to meet the criteria for joining and so need to talk about what to do next to progress a little more.

There will be talking for years and years and years.

And even if they stop talking and magically do manage to meet the required standards for joining (they won't).
They still need to get it past the French public in a referendum (they won't).
And all the other countries of the EU (they won't).
No other EU could get it pass their own country's parliament at the moment without majority problems and possibly civil unrest.

Its not happening. Its just not.

Its all to try and make Turkey feel like its making progress and keep them happy (possibly to keep the Turkish people happy) when the reality is that the rest of the EU just can't even if they wanted to, because of how it would destabilise everywhere.

As previous posters say, its a cruel trick at the expense of Turkey.

Join the discussion

Join the discussion

Registering is free, easy, and means you can join in the discussion, get discounts, win prizes and lots more.

Register now