Before you vote.. please check whether your perceptions are in line with the figures (following the ipsos poll...)

(61 Posts)
nearlyhellokitty Sun 12-Jun-16 16:10:32

The EU referendum is such a critical decision... but seems that there are massive misperceptions.
www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3742/The-Perils-of-Perception-and-the-EU.aspx

ipsogenix Sun 12-Jun-16 16:42:01

Thanks, that was useful.

Limer Sun 12-Jun-16 17:04:22

This is just yet another example of Remain patronisation. Basically telling the voters that the houses they see occupied by EU migrants, the GP waiting rooms crowded with EU families, the local schools filled with EU migrant children, the workplaces staffed with EU migrants on zero-hours contracts, local tradespeople being undercut by EU migrant competition - all this is in their imagination, because the statistics prove otherwise.

And I would seriously question some of those figures. Even the government doesn't know how many EU migrants are working here. They've issued over three times as many NI numbers than the official numbers that are supposedly here.

nearlyhellokitty Sun 12-Jun-16 17:32:38

It's patronising to draw attention to the fact that perceptions might not match reality? Surely it's important that people have full access to all the information.

The poll is not just about migrant numbers anyway. It's about other issues.And yet you focus only on the migrant numbers..

Spinflight Sun 12-Jun-16 17:37:02

So we don't know how many there are...

But we know you think there are more than we actually do know about?

Both confusing and patronising.

duxb Sun 12-Jun-16 17:41:32

Voting for Brexit won't stop Immigration - legal or otherwise. It's foolish to think it will.

nearlyhellokitty Sun 12-Jun-16 17:41:41

how about the other parts Spin?

3) Barmaid cleavages and other regulations from the EU: The EU doesn’t always get credit for some of our laws they’re responsible for – like statutory holiday (37% correctly guessed) and two year guarantees on products (21% correctly guessed). On the other hand, we’re generally pretty good at spotting more ridiculous “Euro-myths”, but still 1 in 7 of us (15%) believe at least one Euro-myth – including bans on barmaids showing too much cleavage and forcibly renaming the snack “Bombay Mix” to “Mumbai Mix” (neither of which are real EU laws3). But EU law is complex– it’s no wonder there’s confusion. A quarter (24%) of us think bananas that are “too bendy” are banned from being imported into the UK. This is a long-standing favourite used as an example of excessive EU bureaucracy - most recently re-surfacing from Boris Johnson4. But is it a Euro-myth? Yes and no: the EU does have a regulation to stop malformed bananas being imported into the UK, but it’s a stretch to say the EU’s banned “bendy” bananas.
4) How much the UK pays in: The majority of us (67%) correctly say the UK annually pays more into the EU’s budget than it gets back - but we overestimate how much we pay compared with other countries. 84% of us put Britain in the top 3 contributors to the EU’s c.€140bn annual budget (the same proportion that picks Germany as a top contributor) and nearly a quarter of us (23%) think the UK is the single top contributor to the EU. In reality, Germany paid in twice as much as us in 2014 (21% of total EU income), followed by France (16%) then Italy (12%), with the UK in fourth place (11%)5.
5) How much the UK directly gets back: the majority of us are also correct that we get less back than other large countries. Three in five correctly (58%) rank the UK as one of the lower gross recipients from the EU budget: in 2014, the UK received less than other Western European countries like Germany, Italy, Spain and France6.
6) Child Benefit: we massively overestimate the proportion of Child Benefit awards given to families in other European countries. The actual proportion of UK Child Benefit awards going on children living abroad in Europe is 0.3%7, but 14% of us think that 30% of UK Child Benefit goes to children abroad and 23% of us think 13% does. This means that nearly 4 in 10 of us think the number of children in EU countries receiving Child Benefit from the UK is 40 to 100 times the actual level.
7) EU democracy: only 6 in 10 know that members of the European Parliament (MEPs) are elected by the citizens of each member state. One in five (18%) think that MEPs are not elected and a quarter (25%) say they don’t know whether they are or not.
8) Who our MEPs are: Unsurprisingly then, just 5% can correctly name at least one of the MEPs representing their region. This is much lower than the number who can name their local MP (41%).
9) The EU’s administration bill: we massively overestimate how much of the EU’s budget is spent on administration. The average guess is that 27% of the overall budget is spent on staff, admin and maintenance costs, when in reality it’s 6%8. If this estimate were accurate the EU would be spending €38.5bn on admin each year, instead of €8.5bn.
10) Inward investment from EU countries: we underestimate how much investment into the UK comes from EU countries. The average guess is that they contribute 30% of total investment into the UK, when it actually makes up almost half (48%). This perception gap is mirrored by an overestimation of investment from China, which people think makes up 19% of inward investment but actually only accounts for 1%9.

Limer Sun 12-Jun-16 17:48:03

It's not about the numbers. People are voting based on their experiences. They are allowed to, you know.

If you ask them, "how much does the UK hand over to the EU?" they'll answer "Too much". "How many EU migrants are here?" "Too many".

ExtremelyConfidential Sun 12-Jun-16 17:48:29

Good link, OP. People deserve to make fact based decisions.

nearlyhellokitty Sun 12-Jun-16 17:51:51

Right Limer, not patronising at all to make sure people can make it based on fact. if they then think it's too much or too many of course it's their choice. Do you think the facts are not important then?

dogchewedtoy1 Sun 12-Jun-16 17:52:06

I will make my decision based on my real life experience not some propaganda put forward by Remain. I suspect this will apply to most people on both sides. Knowing the % of child benefit going to Poland doesn't help me get a school place or doctors appointment. Getting really bored of all this now. Roll on June 23.....

Spinflight Sun 12-Jun-16 17:52:32

Sorry Kitty,

I can't take an article which leads with barmaid cleavages seriously!

nearlyhellokitty Sun 12-Jun-16 17:54:11

Wow dog. This is not propaganda. Feeling like Leave really get touchy when people make efforts to ensure there are actually some facts around!

plus is the point about MEPs propaganda? that such a large percentage of people don't realise they're elected?

nearlyhellokitty Sun 12-Jun-16 17:55:23

That's Point 3, I left out the migrant ones given your comment. how about you scroll down to the key points about investment etc

OhtoblazeswithElvira Sun 12-Jun-16 17:59:03

Thanks for this OP. I thought I was well informed but I am shock at many of those points.

Surely you know that you are wasting your time though... I think most people have made up their minds based on emotions and no amount of facts and figures will make people change their minds either way.

thecatfromjapan Sun 12-Jun-16 18:03:49

How is it patronising to produce actual, real, researched figures? How? In what universe did it become patronising to invoke reality and real facts?

thecatfromjapan Sun 12-Jun-16 18:05:49

In fact, what on earth is happening if actual, real facts can be dismissed as some kind of 'lie' in favour of ... what, exactly?

nearlyhellokitty Sun 12-Jun-16 18:10:13

I guess I'm hoping that people might find it helpful as they consider ... but I know that in the end it will be a gut feeling.

OhtoblazeswithElvira Sun 12-Jun-16 18:20:12

This is the sort of stuff we should be discussing on this board... facts! Instead we get an overload of the same posters repeating Leave campaign slogans in a "lala la, I'm not listening" fashion.

Keep it coming OP

ExtremelyConfidential Sun 12-Jun-16 18:21:05

Kitty, I think there is still a significant group of undecided voters who are seeking facts.

Of course, people can vote on "gut" but in reality, human gut feel is based on perception of the situation and that's heavily influenced by awareness of facts.

Some people have different experiences and values so will naturally place different weights of importance on the issues at stake, irrespective of facts. I understand and think that's OK too.

But everybody deserves to have basic facts as a starting point for their decisions, so they can take responsibility for the consequences of their vote.

Thanks again for the link.

PausingFlatly Sun 12-Jun-16 18:27:54

fullfact.org Full Fact are also trying to check the claims made by each side, as neutrally as possible.

PausingFlatly Sun 12-Jun-16 18:39:40

You can also submit your own questions:

"If you have a question about the EU submit it here to our Ask Full Fact board - we will try to answer as many as we can. You can upvote other questions too, we'll notify you when we write a factcheck on it".

Inside Full Fact
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nearlyhellokitty Sun 12-Jun-16 18:57:19

Thanks ExtremelyConfidential and ohtoblazes

good point PausingFlatly

nearlyhellokitty Sun 12-Jun-16 18:59:05

thecatfromjapan I know...

ItsAllGoingToBeFine Sun 12-Jun-16 19:03:06

Thanks OP.

I find it slightly terrifying that so many people are going to vote based on their lived experience (anecdata) and find facts patronising. <despairs>

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