Please help me understand - what exactly WILL happen if we leave the EU?

(135 Posts)
DorynownotFloundering Tue 07-Jun-16 09:02:41

Because quite frankly I can't see how all these wonderful ideas Brexit have could be implemented if the govt are not in agreement & no one from the Leave side is in any position of power?

Genuine question.

BritBrit Tue 07-Jun-16 09:19:48

After a leave vote, Parliament would vote to exercise article 50 which tells the EU that the UK want to leave the EU. At this point the UK has a 2 year period to negotiate our exit with the EU & this can be extended for more time if the EU agrees. In this 2 year period (it can be less) the UK will send a negotiation team which would be lead by eurosceptics to make a deal. The only thing the UK really needs is free trade & that will continue because the EU-UK trade deficit is gigantic in the EU's favour & they depend on the UK market

Bolograph Tue 07-Jun-16 09:24:52

no one from the Leave side is in any position of power?

The conservatives would rip themselves to pieces, there will be a general election which a Conservative party led by a eurosceptic would win, by a short nose, because Labour at the moment would lose an election to Coco the Clown (and would be buy tearing themselves to pieces as well, something that the Labour Party does so well).

I speak as a remain-voting member of the Labour Party.

MyHovercraftIsFullOfEels Tue 07-Jun-16 09:25:15

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

MyHovercraftIsFullOfEels Tue 07-Jun-16 09:27:07

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Bolograph Tue 07-Jun-16 09:27:58

That was to BritBrit, obviously.

I was going to say...it would be nice to meet someone online who has hopes for Labour in a Labour vs Coco the Clown head to head...

MyHovercraftIsFullOfEels Tue 07-Jun-16 09:33:02

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

redhat Tue 07-Jun-16 09:35:59

I'm not sure you're going to get an answer OP because the reality is that both sides have a different view (and there are other views in between).

What I can say is that business is already being impacted for many due to the uncertainty. A number of my clients are already experiencing problems and the deals market (buying and selling of businesses) is being affected.

MrsBlackthorn Tue 07-Jun-16 09:40:57

The fact is, no one really knows.

Article 50 would be invoked. The U.K. would have to start negotiating. It's not clear who would lead this negotiation; the current government would be in turmoil if there's a leave vote, so there might need to be a general election first.

It's also possible that Scotland would launch another IndyRef to avoid leaving.

We have two years to agree terms of leaving. The rest of the EU could extend this, but on the other hand they might not, in order to discourage other EU members from doing the same.

In the next 2-5, possibly longer, years, no one will really know what trading relationship the UK will have with the rest of the world - that alone will put businesses from investing. Jobs are almost certain to be lost. Sterling will fall (it already is), making stuff more expensive (we are, as noted by a previous poster, a net importer).

Some EU migrants might leave. Brits abroad might come back - if both these things happen the NHS might struggle.

But in general there are so many unknowns - the only guarantee is that there will be a lot of uncertainty. And uncertainty is never good for the economy or jobs.

YourPerception Tue 07-Jun-16 09:44:56

There may be some changes with improvement and challenges. Life will go on.

We will watch the EU struggle too.

Bolograph Tue 07-Jun-16 09:51:25

It's also possible that Scotland would launch another IndyRef to avoid leaving

Unless Scotland has suddenly decided it's Rhodesia and wants UDI, I think you'll find that will require the agreement of the UK government. And they might be quite busy at the time.

Bolograph Tue 07-Jun-16 09:57:39

Sterling will fall (it already is)

I feel I need to namechange to "InvotingLabour", but it's worth pointing out that Sterling would obviously fall against the Yuan and the Dollar, but it is far from certain that in the aftermath of a Brexit (please God, let it not happen) that the Euro wouldn't fall at least as far and at least as quickly. The EU appear to think that they can be smug about this and gently mock the poor deluded Brexiteers (which has been the general tone of the remain campaign, sadly, "only fools and racists would vote out, you're not a fool or a racist are you?" "No," say a lot of the Brexiteers, "but if I want a lecture from smug Islington tossers like Eddie Izzard, I'll buy a ticket to one of his shows") but the reality is that the loss of a G8 country from the EU would not be a cost-free exercise for them either.

The Euro currently survives on the basis of being backed by Germany and the markets believing, probably accurately, that ultimately even if the UK did not formally get involved in another bail-out its presence adds a certain substance to the proceedings. A Euro where the only serious participant is Germany, there's no oil and it's weighed down by large economic deadbeats like France and Italy? Why would that not drop alongside sterling?

Perhaps a currency trader (I'm sure MN has them) would like to comment on the current price of Sterling-denoted Euro futures, and vice versa?

MrsBlackthorn Tue 07-Jun-16 09:59:16

"We will watch the EU struggle too."

The people we buy things from and sell stuff to being in trouble is more bad news for us.

Scotland = more uncertainty, possibly even civil unrest.

It will be an absolute mess if we leave.

EnthusiasmDisturbed Tue 07-Jun-16 10:13:35

So what happens if Germany leave

There is many people wanting a referendum in Germany and France

And why do they want a referendum it's because they want to get out. Many Germans resent that they uphold the EU and saved Greece and of course there is the issue of immigration and the huge growth of far right support in many countries in Europe far more so than here

bbpp Tue 07-Jun-16 10:26:35

Negotiating trade agreements will be messy. Over 50% of our exports go to the EU, and only 6.6% of EU exports come to the UK. We definitely have the short straw and may have to accept unfavorable conditions in order to recover our economy, which may mean we shall contribute to the EU budget and/or accept free movement, whilst no longer having the benefits such as being part of the largest economy and trading block in the world, who are top trading partners with 80 countries. They're much more powerful than us and those who think they're going to sit back and give us everything we want when they don't need to are naive.

moonbells Tue 07-Jun-16 10:30:53

Britain will lose the one thing its economy most depends on - the stock market, as a lot of companies depend on the EU and will probably move their trading to Frankfurt.

We'll lose our rights to work anywhere in the EU, which will hit our children hard in a global economy
We'll lose reciprocal healthcare (and EHICs)
We'll lose all sorts of compensation rights (eg flight delays)
We'll probably lose working hours protections
We might lose maternity leave protection (see US for details) if the govt deem it to cost too much.
We will probably lose a lot of multinational companies who like that they can trade easily with Europe in English

We might gain border autonomy, though most of our post-war immigration was before we joined the EU in the first place.

We will gain the huge EU levy back, but what about the money they invest in us and our companies? I bet that levy doesn't go far in balancing books of UK plc and then where will the money come from? We'll lose a lot of EU workers who do actually pay tax! Leaving the rest of us to find the balance...

We will lose a lot of medical and scientific research (which the UK is currently a world-leader in) as they depend on international collaboration especially with EU countries (where the big pharma are based)

We might crash and burn - in which case we'd have to beg the EU to let us in again and you can imagine what they'd do to us. We'd then lose the £ forever and all rights of veto.

It is worth remembering that the last time a country faced a massive load of political scaremongering (as in "we're being invaded by xyz people/ideology who are taking our jobs and stopping our people from living properly") it was 1930s Germany... they voted to keep out the "communist invaders" and then look what happened. One of the reasons the EU was formed was to make sure it didn't happen again.

Yes, I'm Pro-EU. Ten years ago I would have voted Leave but then I started to think about consequences. With the way our politics is going, we need an external check on the goons honourable persons in power, now the house of Lords is toothless.

And border security? Well, we're an island. We have beaches. If someone undesirable wants to get into the UK and cause havoc, they only need a boat and a dark night. They'll get in if they want to, either way. So that's not a reason to vote Leave.

Millyonthefloss Tue 07-Jun-16 10:43:13

As I understand it, not much will change initially.

We will have 2 years to renegotiate our dealings with the EU.

The EU citizens who are here will all be able to stay.

Over the next few years, slowly but surely we will begin to have more control over our own affairs and the way we spend our taxes.

We may even be able to start to control the immigration of people from the EU - if we think it is the right thing to do.

Bolograph Tue 07-Jun-16 10:47:50

Britain will lose the one thing its economy most depends on - the stock market, as a lot of companies depend on the EU and will probably move their trading to Frankfurt.

Unfortunately, precisely the same thing was predicted if we didn't join the Euro, which means that it looks awfully like crying wolf. There's no particular reason to believe it's true this time, either.

It is worth remembering that the last time a country faced a massive load of political scaremongering (as in "we're being invaded by xyz people/ideology who are taking our jobs and stopping our people from living properly") it was 1930s Germany...

And those of us campaigning for remain wonder why people think that the remain campaign is a load of scaremongering hysterics with no sense of proportion.

MrsBlackthorn Tue 07-Jun-16 11:12:00

Sadly I don't think the 1930s comparisons are hyperbole. If the Leave vote is won on a wave of anti-immigrant sentiment, people will actually expect action to reduce the number of foreigners they see around them. What does that actually mean in practice? Who knows.

Pangurban1 Tue 07-Jun-16 11:36:06

" In this 2 year period (it can be less) the UK will send a negotiation team which would be lead by eurosceptics to make a deal."

I think the negotiations in this 2 year period can only relate to the exit itself. It wouldn't be wrt new trade deal negotiations.

Nobody knows what would happen, in reality.

To have a guess politically and internally.

Boris is not pm material. He was sacked twice for lying. Once for making up headlines and then for lying about one of his affairs-Petronella Wyatt one. Never mind JM's court Jester squalid stuff like saying EU like Hitler etc. Irrespective of how much he beams as if to say 'what an adorable scamp am I'. Doesn't quite work for me! So like Farage, although saying he wouldn't want it for himself, Gove would be forced (don't you know) by his comrades to put himself forward for pm in a challenge. It wouldn't be going back on what he said (sure), just a response to those around him pointing out how much they want him.

Sterling is falling at the moment. Don't know where that is going or for how long.

Wrt trading. Although outside eurozone, London is still protected as a member of the club and UK still have a voice at the table in relation to imposition of tariffs etc. Once UK leave, what if the EU imposes taxes on each transaction for non-eu. If that collectively mounts up, I'd imagine those with no special link to the UK could move in the morning. Same with companies. In some cases, legislation mandates companies have to be established in the EU. If there were any companies where the UK was attractive because it fulfilled that requirement, why retain a second site in the UK?

Speculation, of course, just like everyone else.

Bolograph Tue 07-Jun-16 11:47:20

If the Leave vote is won on a wave of anti-immigrant sentiment, people will actually expect action to reduce the number of foreigners they see around them. What does that actually mean in practice?

Probably not Treblinka. Seriously, if the best you can manage to support remaining in the EU is "Britain will become a Nazi state with an active programme of genocide to murder a substantial portion of the population while invading several surrounding countries", could you perhaps not go door to door knocking, as you make us all a bit unhinged?

Claiming your political opponents are Nazis is rarely productive.

Bolograph Tue 07-Jun-16 11:48:24

Once UK leave, what if the EU imposes taxes on each transaction for non-eu.

Are the EU planning to leave the WTO?

YourPerception Tue 07-Jun-16 12:05:08

I love that theam pro EU are all for the welfare of other member states and against Little Englander ideas. Then they cry other EU member states will take our business away. grin

Millyonthefloss Tue 07-Jun-16 12:05:59

Boris is not pm material ... Gove would be forced (don't you know) by his comrades to put himself forward for pm in a challenge.

My guess is Teresa May for PM. She is a person of high integrity and well regarded. She is also a known eurosceptic but has remained loyal to the PM. So she could unite the party and the country.

This is pure speculation of course. Who knows what the Tories will do?

It is also wishful thinking. My daughter revealed the other day that she did not know that women could be PMs shock.

Pangurban1 Tue 07-Jun-16 12:13:06

They can still impose taxes on outsiders. Legislation still requires some sectors to be established.

Most people who have experience of the wto seem to think it ain't as simple and straightforward as people saying, "we'll just fall back on WTO rules".

The WTO itself has said the UK shouldn't leave

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/02/12/world-trade-uk-eu_n_4773835.html

Even a penny a transaction could see millions in costs. Maybe they could just smack it onto transactions from the UK so and other countries that don't have free trade agreements.

"The UK would not have access to trade in the EU on terms any more advantageous than third countries which do not have free trade agreements with the EU:"

"Financial services would not be covered such that the UK would not enjoy its current level of preferential access to the single market for financial services."

lawyers-inforbritain.uk/b-m-a/the-wto-option/

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