(Narrow focus) I am voting Remain because if we leave, I believe the UK will break up, and probably the EU as well.

(49 Posts)
WestleyAndButtockUp Mon 02-May-16 10:15:07

As I get more pessimistic about the world, I value more and more the institutions that have maintained stability in the world. Even though those same institutions (EU) have acted deplorably on many occasions. If we Leave, it could precipitate the break up of the EU.

On another thread, I saw some convincing arguments about why that might not be a bad idea - although I'm not yet convinced.

But my main conviction is about the United Kingdom. Departing the EU, I believe, will make it more likely for Scotland quite soon, and perhaps Northern Ireland later, to break up the United Kingdom.

Whisky2014 Mon 02-May-16 13:50:35

And what's wrong with that?

SpringingIntoAction Mon 02-May-16 15:42:07

Exactly.

You cannot force parts of a union to remain in a union they no longer want to stay in.

That's want I want to LEAVE the European Union.

glenthebattleostrich Mon 02-May-16 15:47:44

Leave or remain Sturgeon will try to force through another referendum, it is her party's central policy. Although I do find it laughable that some Scots object to being ruled by Westminster (who they can at least influence via elections) yet are quite happy to sign up to the EU.

WestleyAndButtockUp Mon 02-May-16 16:26:54

I am not at all dismissive of people who believe it's better to be an independent nation - including the British and including the Scots. It's an entirely understandable principle.

I just believe the world is better, more stable, with supra-national institutions. Despite all the problems which come with that.

This is a debate, and I'm still learning from both sides.

Scone1nSixtySeconds Mon 02-May-16 16:34:44

I think its all cyclical Westley. Large empires (Roman, Persian, Ottoman, British) collapse into smaller nation states and then conglomerate again in different combinations.

I think we just might be on the turn of the circle IYSWIM.

If the people of Scotland or NI or Wales want independence then we should be graceful about it.

GoblinLittleOwl Mon 02-May-16 16:41:20

I think the EU will break up, which is why I want to leave, otherwise it will drag us down with it.

SpringingIntoAction Mon 02-May-16 17:27:01

Scotland has doe well out of the EU, Wales less so.

If they want to leave the UK and join the EU they will find that they are very rich member countries compared to many EU countries and certainly compared to the very poor countries that are in talks to join the EU, such as Albania, Macedonia, Bosnia, Kosovo

Those new EU members have massive unemployment and a multitude of problems and mainly agricultural economies that will suck up masses of EU money to put right.

I cannot see Scotland, Wales or Norther Ireland, as rich countries, wanting to join the EU so they can subsidise the really poor new member countries of the EU

AveEldon Mon 02-May-16 17:29:24

I think the EU will break up anyway
It may happen faster if the UK votes to leave

SpringingIntoAction Mon 02-May-16 17:34:44

^I think the EU will break up anyway
It may happen faster if the UK votes to leave^

It has managed to sustain a financial crisis and a migrant crisis so far.

I can forsee the Eastern European EU members breaking away and forming their own pact, as they adamantly refuse to accept migrants.

I can also imagine the EU falling apart once we've left and other countries joining us in a non-EU trading bloc.

Limer Mon 02-May-16 23:14:20

The EU will fall apart before long, whether we leave or not. Best to be the first to leave, we can set the trend and blaze the trail. Others will follow. If we don't leave now, we'll be stuck in a downward spiral of ever-poorer countries joining the EU, our wealth being siphoned over to them while they export their youth unemployment back to us in return.

STIDW Mon 02-May-16 23:29:15

I think the EU will break up, which is why I want to leave, otherwise it will drag us down with it.

What happens in the EU impacts on us & the rest of the world in much the same way as the US mortgage crisis triggered the financial crisis in 2008. IF we are members of the EU we at least we have some influence on the things that affect us.

Limer Tue 03-May-16 23:38:32

The UK's influence is negligible in such a huge group as the EU. If the UK votes to Remain, we will be top of the list for digging deep to sort out any further EU problems, such as the expected influx of millions more economic migrants over the summer.

SpringingIntoAction Tue 03-May-16 23:53:44

If we stay in we will be punished by the EU for having the temerity to think we could have escaped.

After the referendum they will tell us about the EU Army they are planning

www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e90a080e-107b-11e6-91da-096d89bd2173.html#axzz47d69aGHe

After the referendum they will tell us about the new migrant sharing system they are planning - we may even be fined for refusing to accept our share

www.rte.ie/news/2016/0406/779825-migrants-refugees-eu/

After the referendum the EU will tell us we have to buy new kettles and toasters:

www.rte.ie/news/2016/0406/779825-migrants-refugees-eu/

That's just what has leaked.

Will they also say - you must scrap the £ and change to the EURO - after all why do you want your own currency when you have just agreed you will sty in the EU?

Will they also cut subsidies and grants to our farmers and universities - because after all we've just voted to stay in the EU so the EU doesn't have to be generous to us anymore and can use those EU grants and subsidies too woo other countries to join the EU

Will they increase our EU membership fees (again) because, after all, you people in the Uk like the EU so much you've just voted to stay in - so the membership fee has just increased

Will they say the EU will now take over your UK seat on the UN Security Council because, after all, you've just voted to stay in the EU and we don't need to have a UK seat and a French seat when we could have one EU Un Security Council seat.

Couldn't happen?

They said that about the possibility of 2 planes flying into the World Trade Centre within hours of each other

They didn't say it about the possibility of over a million migrants suddenly arriving in Europe because that would have been just too bizarre - wouldn't it?

AnnaForbes Tue 03-May-16 23:57:56

The UK's influence is negligible in such a huge group as the EU and will gett smaller as each new state gains accession. Our influence is minimal. It seems Merkel is making the decisions without much consultation with other EU leaders. She has been allowed to do so such damage to the continent already. I want out before she does more.

It has taken 40 years to get this vote. Chances are we wont get another one. Being a sovereign nation may not be perfect but at least we can vote out our leaders every 5 years.

As others have said, the EU wont last. It is based on such a flawed ideology, it wasnt ever workable. It will be a race to the bottom when it does collapse and we are better gaining our independence now rather than wait for the inevitable.

Kummerspeck Wed 04-May-16 00:02:02

I too think the EU will break up anyway and I suspect we would be better getting out now rather than being caught in its death throes or being hauled over coals once our chance of leaving has gone

The problem with the Remain campaign is that it has implied that staying in is just like things are now but Brexit is scary and potentially catastrophic whereas nobody knows what the EU will look like in 5, 10 or 20 years and that could be terrifying too.

Unfortunately there is no accurate information. I read today that George Osborne's figure of every family being £450 a year better off is based on information supplied by the EU but, apparently, the study it is based on is from the USA and over 15 years old so maybe not as reliable as was thought

AnnaForbes Wed 04-May-16 00:05:14

Springing is right, Germany (them again) have delayed a white paper callling for a push toward the EU army till after June 23rd.

It is therefore necessary that military capabilities are jointly planned, developed, managed, procured and deployed to raise the interoperability of Europe's defence forces
German policy paper May 2016

Compulsory conscription for young men next?

SpringingIntoAction Wed 04-May-16 00:31:10

Kummerspeck

That's funny. He's got a whole lod of Treasury experts paid for by us at his disposal and he relies on EU and US to spoon feed him dodgy financial forecasts. He's not taking this seriously is he?

I could post an alternative forecast by the IEA or by Prof Minford that would show the Uk families would be better off post Brexit - but I won't because it's not about the money.

It's about taking back control of this country from the irresponsible clowns in the EU, before it takes us down with it.

Mistigri Fri 06-May-16 09:41:20

But my main conviction is about the United Kingdom. Departing the EU, I believe, will make it more likely for Scotland quite soon, and perhaps Northern Ireland later, to break up the United Kingdom.

Interesting topic. Under what mechanism can the Scots demand a new referendum? It seems likely to me that the result would be different if there was a new indyref.

I don't really have a strong opinion on the lifetime of the EU - nothing lasts forever. What's clear to me is that the EU would be completely intransigent in negotiations with the UK pour encourager les autres. This means that there is a high risk of post-referendum brexit negotiations resulting in an agreement that is damaging to both sides.

scaryteacher Fri 06-May-16 15:59:14

*It is therefore necessary that military capabilities are jointly planned, developed, managed, procured and deployed to raise the interoperability of Europe's defence forces
German policy paper May 2016*

This already happens via NATO; lots of work goes in to ensure this happens. There is a reason for the term 'NATO standard'!

As for conscription - many NATO nations still have it.

STIDW Fri 06-May-16 18:58:07

The UK's influence is negligible in such a huge group as the EU

I disagree. During the past 6 years Britain has been on the winning side 87% of the time in EU Council votes.

ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/does-the-uk-win-or-lose-in-the-council-of-ministers/

Government’s ability to influence policies doesn’t only occur through voting, but also in negotiations over the actual text of a draft law. Using comparison of what each country wants from a negotiation with what actually happens on the issues that matter most to them as a measure the UK is the second most successful country in the EU.

ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/is-the-uk-marginalised-in-the-eu-2/

STIDW Fri 06-May-16 19:06:46

This already happens via NATO; lots of work goes in to ensure this happens. There is a reason for the term 'NATO standard'!

With the prospect of someone like Trump becoming president & Commander-in-Chief can we rely on NATO indefinitely?

In any case the EU & NATO are partners & co-operate with & compliment each other. NATO is the main guarantor of the security of European nations from external threat. The EU creates, ensures & extends friendship, co-operation, democracy & the rule of law within the EU.

Democratic practices are a requirement of EU membership. In the 1990s, for example, the EU played a role in arbitrating border disputes in a peaceful way & helped push former Soviet satellites & possessions toward democracy.

scaryteacher Fri 06-May-16 21:44:59

STIDW NATO and the EU are NOT partners, don't kid yourself. There is no love lost there whatsoever. The co-operation isn't that great - the EU piggybacks on the work that NATO does, rather than do it itself, and I don't think they compliment or complement each other either. They have differing roles.

I like your Utopian take on what the EU does within Europe - it really worked well in Greece didn't it? I don't think that EU actions there could be construed as friendly, co-operative, or within the rule of law, and ousting a PM was profoundly undemocratic to boot.

The EU couldn't deal with the break up of Yugoslavia, and we ended up with the mess that is still ongoing there. If democratic practices are a requirement of EU membership, why is Turkey being potentially fast tracked...not that Greece will wear it, and how come the special deal for Ukraine, which isn't exactly a bright shining light in the anti corruption and democratic stakes?

STIDW Fri 06-May-16 22:07:40

NATO and the EU are NOT partners

In addition to its formal partnerships, NATO cooperates with the EU - NATO's words not mine

www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/51288.htm

STIDW Fri 06-May-16 22:13:40

it really worked well in Greece didn't it? I don't think that EU actions there could be construed as friendly, co-operative, or within the rule of law, and ousting a PM was profoundly undemocratic to boot.

The PM resigned because he had lost the confidence of the Greek parliament & his majority wasn’t there any more. Most of the democratically elected representatives gave their support to the new administration.

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