To think Trump will win

(243 Posts)
HappyCamel Sat 22-Oct-16 04:42:30

I'm living in the Southern States. I think he might well do it. Clinton is coming off as seriously corrupt. No one thought BREXIT would actually happen either. What's the feeling on the U.K. side of the pond?

lizzieoak Sat 22-Oct-16 04:50:07

Not presently in the UK, but Nate Silver says Clinton's chances of winning are over 80%.

DeathStare Sat 22-Oct-16 07:29:03

I worry that they're polling the wrong people

Lilaclily Sat 22-Oct-16 07:30:25

Nah I don't think he'll win

CheerfulYank Sat 22-Oct-16 07:31:09

I don't know.

I think she's got it after the last debates. Dear God I hope so.

ThroughThickAndThin01 Sat 22-Oct-16 07:33:17

I don't think he'll do it. Clinton is so far ahead in the polls isn't she? Brexit polls were neck and neck.

VeryBitchyRestingFace Sat 22-Oct-16 07:35:31

I'm terrified he will win.

sad

And I can't understand how this be even a possibility. Who is voting for him??

He doesn't have:

- the black vote
- the hispanic vote
- the female vote
- the gay vote
- the muslim vote

ForalltheSaints Sat 22-Oct-16 07:35:39

It is possible as I think the Trump voters are more likely to turn out and vote.

megletthesecond Sat 22-Oct-16 07:38:45

What deathstare said.

I don't trust the polls these days.

WordGetsAround Sat 22-Oct-16 07:42:03

I think he might do. After everything in the last few weeks, and he's still only 4 point behind?

Saying that, I'd find it very hard voting for Clinton too. What a choice.

TitaniasTits Sat 22-Oct-16 07:42:23

Yes, I'm terrified he's going to win. I think they're polling a lot of "shy" Trump voters - don't want to admit it but will vote for him on the day.

witsender Sat 22-Oct-16 07:43:52

His "nasty woman" comment from the last debate may well catalyse a few voters.

DoctorDonnaNoble Sat 22-Oct-16 07:45:36

I don't understand why anyone is voting for him. He's not the non-establishment candidate. He IS the establishment. Crap at his job, entitled and living off inherited wealth. Oh and sexist and racist. Are there really that many hate-filled people in America?

user1466690252 Sat 22-Oct-16 07:47:51

I just want to tell everyone to go out and vote! So many people I know didn't vote for brexit (despite my rants!) As they thought it was a given we would stay. This is my fear that will give trump the edge

RedStripeLass Sat 22-Oct-16 07:48:34

I can well believe he might win. So depressing. I'm feeling scared about the state of the world.

Laura222 Sat 22-Oct-16 07:49:58

Everyone shut up, let the Americans worry just be happy we have a great leader of Stalin pulling the UK through Brexithalo

PNGirl Sat 22-Oct-16 07:50:26

Yes, there are plenty of white men and women who hate black people, hispanic people, Muslims, and anyone non-Christian who is pro-choice and/or anti guns. They'd never vote for a democrat in a million years.

That said I think she will do it. In 4 years hopefully there will be a better choice as she's unlikely to do 2 terms.

Ankleswingers Sat 22-Oct-16 07:52:17

I don't think he'll win. Clinton will. The lesser of two evils.

WelshMoth Sat 22-Oct-16 07:53:05

I wonder if Clinton would still be in the running if she's been heard saying things like 'grabbing men's cocks' and them liking her power.

Despicable man.

WhispersOfWickedness Sat 22-Oct-16 07:53:28

I do for the same reason that Brexit won; disenfranchised voters looking for someone 'different' and the chance to shake up the political system. It was written a few months ago, but Michael Moore wrote quite a scary article about it: http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/

dybil Sat 22-Oct-16 07:54:04

I'm still a bit anxious he might win, but the polls look pretty solid to me, and the early voting signs look good for Clinton.

I dont think the UK referendum is a good precedent because the 'leave' vote was ahead in plenty of the polls for a while before Brexit, it's just we still somehow doubted it would really happen. Yes the YouGov exit poll was 4% off, but most places didn't even do exit polls due to the lack of historical data from referendums to be confident of accurate polling methods. There's far more data historically for US elections for pollsters to use, so the polls are more likely to be accurate - and Clinton's lead is significantly bigger than the error in Brexit-exit polling was.

And then there's the electoral college.

WelshMoth Sat 22-Oct-16 07:54:49

Laura222 comparing TM to Stalin? Are you drunk? Have you read any history books?

NickiFury Sat 22-Oct-16 07:57:56

I'm trying to trust that common sense will win out but you just never know. All my American friends are extremely vocal in their opposition to him but I was astounded that the conservatives got in and then again by Brexit, given that all the social media I am on indicated the opposite of those outcomes. I'm worried, I do admit.

Laura222 Sat 22-Oct-16 07:57:59

I studied history at Cambridge....

Hassled Sat 22-Oct-16 07:58:04

The problem (I think) is that while he doesn't have the vote of significant sections of the population, that doesn't mean they'll then vote for Clinton. She seems to be so disliked (which I just don't really understand) - I think the turnout will be very low. The Trump supporters will definitely vote - the Hispanic woman who hates Trump but dislikes Clinton may just not bother.

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