To wonder if the EU could push us before we jump

(8 Posts)
Mistigri Fri 24-Jun-16 16:49:49

Noises from the leave campaign today suggest they are not that keen on actually leaving the EU any time soon.

The EU on the other hand is clearly pressing for an early exit.

Could delaying the formal decision to leave result in the UK getting the sack by the other 27 members? Anyone know?

HellsBellsnBucketsofBlood Fri 24-Jun-16 16:52:42

Not if we go via article 50 - that has to be triggered by the UK.

However, if Scotland were to have another Referendum fast and vote to leave the UK and stay in the EU, it could be argued that they are the successor state (so they get the EU deal we currently have) and we are just a chunk of the UK that has decided to go it alone (making us the 'new state' that is not a part of the EU).

In that case I understand we'd be out on our ear, without a trade deal.

GooseRocks Fri 24-Jun-16 16:55:48

Scotland have to get agreement from Westminster for referendum. Not going to happen any time soon as would add even more uncertainty. Unfortunate as I think I might actually be persuaded to vote Yes under those circumstances Hells

RiceCrispieTreats Fri 24-Jun-16 17:21:04

Good question.

Short answer: no.

Article 50 is what is designed to be used for a country to leave the EU. It would be triggered by PM Cameron or PM Johnson notifying the Council that the UK wants to withdraw. So that scenario has to be led by the UK.

At a stretch, it's conceivable that Article 48 (on how to amend the Treaty) could technically be used to amend Article 52 (which lists the UK as a member). So, for example, the European Parliament, or another EU state, could suggest to strike "United Kingdom" from the list of members. This would require the European Council to vote on creating a constitutional convention, which would then deliberate, and submit its opinion on the proposed amendment back to the Council for another vote. It would take ages, just to strike a few words from the Treaty, and wouldn't be the body to negotiate the actual exit agreement.

Politically horrific, and technically way too cumbersome.

Treaty is here

So it's down to the UK Government to actually say to its partners in the Council that it wants out, in order to trigger the process.

HellsBellsnBucketsofBlood Fri 24-Jun-16 17:25:54

Of course they can push us politically. Not such how best they could do that though.

RiceCrispieTreats Fri 24-Jun-16 17:30:10

Well, the opening gambit today was declaring that Cameron's negotiated reform package "has ceased to exist" as of today.

Mistigri Fri 24-Jun-16 18:30:25

Well, the opening gambit today was declaring that Cameron's negotiated reform package "has ceased to exist" as of today.

That's not a gambit though; it's just stating the obvious. Cameron's deal is irrelevant now, because we have voted to leave.

OrangesandLemonsNow Fri 24-Jun-16 18:32:54

The negotiaged reforms hadn't yet kicked in though. They were to start the moment a remain result came in.

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