To Wonder If Cruz Quitting Is Good News For Clinton?

[FirstWeTakeManhattan]

What do you think? It's a short AIBU, as I'm keen to hear the range of views, and from those posters with a better eye-view of the US campaigns than I've got

[ApocalypseSlough]

I'm boggling. I can't get my head round Trump's popularity, or the implications of if he wins, or the chances of that- infinitesimal, surely? But then Clinton's so tainted (unfairly imo) and lovely Bernie is a socialist which is like being a kitten killer...
Gah!

[VeryBitchyRestingFace]

I think Donald Trump is going to be the next American president.

[Pettywoman]

Very noooo!

[scatterolight]

I don't think it is good news for Clinton. She has a very chequered career with numerous scandals bubbling away in the background. Any other Republican candidate wouldn't have touched these but Trump will go after her - his nickname for her is already "Crooked Hillary". I think Trump will hammer these and tear her apart in the debates.

Bernie would have had a much better chance of beating Trump.

[lavenderdoilly]

She can stand up to Trump. There are republicans who are so against Trump they would vote for Hillary. It will be interesting to see what eg Lindsay Graham will say. He reluctantly support Cruz as an "Anybody but Trump". Will also be interesting to see if it is still a contested republican convention and Kasich is still in it.

[BeALert]

Yes it's excellent news for Clinton, and for Democrats generally.

The Republicans have no idea what to do next. It's delightful to watch.

[Littlemisslovesspiders]

There are republicans who are so against Trump they would vote for Hillary

There are also Democrats who won't vote Hillary.

As others have said she isn't exactly scandal free (allegedly)

[BeALert]

There are also Democrats who won't vote Hillary.

I'm sure there are some, but the Democratic party is quite happy with her as their nominee because they know she can win.

The Republican party is horrified that Trump is their nominee because they know he will lose.

[BeALert]

She has a very chequered career with numerous scandals bubbling away in the background. Any other Republican candidate wouldn't have touched these...

You are joking, right? Election season in the US is disgusting. You have to give up watching TV because of the constant hate ads. Even if the candidates themselves don't say 'She's crooked' (and I'd be amazed if they don't) the DNC, RNC, all the PACs and super PACs will run ads saying whatever they can get away with.

[BarbarianMum]

Oh I hope so OP. The thought of Trump as President horrifies me.

[OrangesandLemonsNow]

The Republican party is horrified that Trump is their nominee because they know he will lose

No one 'knows'

No one thought Leicester would win the championship
No one thought Corbyn would become Labour leader
No one really thought Tories would win GE.

All these things however happened.

As much as I hope he doesn't win I think it is very naive to say you know what will happen because unless you can time travel, you don't.

[FatherReboolaConundrum]

The only downside of Cruz quitting now is that it gives the Republicans (well, those Republicans willing to back Trump) more time to get their strategy together before the general election. If they'd still been fighting it out until July, that would have been ideal for the Democrats. On the other hand, if that had led to a contested Republican convention, they might have been able to pick a candidate who appealed to constitiuencies beyond the pointy-white-hood-and-burning-cross demographic of Trump supporters. So, it would have been a risk for Clinton.

Trump is polling 50% or less of the Republican vote in most places. Pretty much everyone who isn't a Republican man has a very strong dislike of him. He has unprecedented disapproval ratings (though Cruz was close to the same levels), particularly among the key demographics that are generally understood to determine US elections these days: minorities and women. One analyst on the excellent FiveThirtyEight website (the number crunching site for election nerds) estimated a few weeks ago that Trump has about the same share of the US electorate as UKIP does in the UK, about 12-13%. Unless he can shift that, not only is he utterly screwed but he will almost certainly cost the Republicans their majority in the Senate and is even, some people think, putting the Republican House of Representatives majority at risk too.

As with the swing constituencies UK, in the end what matters is who can capture the swing states. Even in good years this is hard for the Republicans because they have gone ever further to the fundamentalist right and as a result their core demographic (less educated, older, conservative white people, particularly men) has shrunk. Since the end of the Cold War, the Republican candidate has only won the popular vote (the largest number of voters across the country) once, in 2004 when War on Terror nationalism was at its height and the Democrats put up a useless candidate. Even then, with all the massive advantages of incumbency, a useless opponent, and the then-popular War on Terror, Bush only just scraped a majority of the vote (50.6%).

After the 2008 and 2012 electoral disasters the Republicans had discussions about how they could broaden their appeal to women and Hispanic voters. Instead, they have Trump: a gibbering misogynist who wants to build a wall to keep the Mexicans out.

This is an interesting analysis from earlier in the week, from Republican and Democrat insiders, speaking anonymously to a Republican-leaning site. 75% of the Republicans - who are the people most likely to have an unrealistically positive view of Republican chances - thought that Clinton would beat Trump in their own state.

So, unless things change dramatically, all the evidence suggests that Clinton will crush Trump like a bug in November, as she would have done Cruz. I don't think there is any serious analyst or party strategist (in either party) who thinks any different at this point.

[judgelionelnutmeg]

Thanks for that very informative post, Father - bloody hope you're right!

[FirstWeTakeManhattan]

Brilliant, thanks Father (and others). We're all on the hunt for good news, obviously and I really appreciate the information. I work a lot in the US markets but find the political system hard to negotiate - really helpful stuff.

[Butkin]

It's now really a match race and I'm sure that Hillary would appreciate the time DT will have to prepare his presidential campaign. She'll probably have to battle on for a few more weeks - maybe through to California.

However the bookmakers have her at 1/3 to win the Presidency with DT at about 5/2 (he has shortened up with Cruz coming out).

DT will go after HC you can be sure but I think it's her campaign to lose..

[FatherReboolaConundrum]

I hope I'm right too .

Obviously, if the Clinton email issue (using her private email for government business while Secretary of State, which the Republicans have tried to make a major issue despite the fact that their last two Secretaries of State did the same thing) blows up, she'll look weaker but it's hard to see anything else stopping her. The hard right in the US have had the Clintons' private and professional lives under a microscope for a quarter century now, so if there were anything else to use against her it's a fair bet that they would have found it before now. In contrast, the Democrats must have a Trump-tower-sized stack of dirt on Trump.

People see big scare headlines about Trump and understandably worry. But even with the Republican party and fundraising machine behind him, which he is nowhere near having, how is Trump going to win Florida, for example?

This is an interesting article about Republican Trump-related fundraising problems. This is interesting, too.

[TickleMyTeacakes]

Thanks for that informative post FatherReboola.

Personally I'm glad Trump is the candidate. I was worried that if it had been Cruz (or any other non Trump candidate) he'd have won the Presidential race because Republican supporters would feel more comfortable voting for him as he's far less divisive. And Cruz was just as abhorrent to me as Trump is.

[FatherReboolaConundrum]

An interesting map from today's New York Times

[FirstWeTakeManhattan]

It's all very reassuring, which is excellent news, and I realise it's in no way an exact science, but do the current opinion polls and maps tend to change to any significant degree at this point in the race? Barring any campaigning disasters,obv.

I suppose I mean, are we right to feel cautiously reassured but not complacent?

[Puzzledandpissedoff]

Frankly I wouldn't want either of them as president, but one thing I'm sure of is that it's going to be a uniquely dirty campaign

I'll be in Arizona for all of August and in many ways it's going to be fascinating