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AIBU?

To fear a repeat of the tiananmen square massacre in Hong kong

31 replies

ReallyTired · 01/10/2014 23:50

The Hong protestors seem to have lot in common with the optimistic students who were murdered in the tiananmen square massacre of 1989. I feel the international community should put pressure on China to find a peaceful compromise.

OP posts:
Cranfieldmc · 02/10/2014 00:20

Yanbu I fear it too; however, I am seeing a lot of posters on FB (friend of friends mainly I presume originally from mainland China) posting how irritated they are with the HK protestors, how the HK protestors shouldn't be protesting against the Chinese diktat as they have no viable alternative anyway and very little condemnation of the authorities brutal tactics with the protestors so far. There does seem to be a reasonable amount of antagonism between mainland Chinese and HK Chinese based upon the usual daft cultural misunderstandings which seems to be fuelling a lack of empathy from the wider Chinese community towards people protesting in HK. Views anyone on whether I have this right (I am not Chinese and do not live in HK so may be is representing the antagonism between the 2 sides).

Thebodyloveschocolateandwine · 02/10/2014 00:23

I was pregnant in 1989 and remember it so well as they were so young and full of hope and optimism

I fear it too op

BiscuitMillionaire · 02/10/2014 00:25

I fear that China might crack down, but I don't think they would dare to be as brutal as they were at Tiananmen Square, as it would be in the full glare of the world's media. And Hong Kong is a modern cosmopolitan city - I just don't think they would get away with it. Everyone has a camera-phone and facebook.

ReallyTired · 02/10/2014 00:32

"I just don't think they would get away with it. Everyone has a camera-phone and facebook."

Its quite easy to cut off a mobile phone signal and the dead cannot update facebook after the event.

I suspect that many chinese are far too brainwashed/ scared to question their govement.

OP posts:
BiscuitMillionaire · 02/10/2014 00:36

What I mean is that China in 1989 was a very different place to Hong Kong in 2014.

Canyouforgiveher · 02/10/2014 00:39

I'm worried too. I hope things have changed but no one back in Tiannamen could have predicted that the Chinese Government would have acted with so little disregard for the world looking on and other governments - they were in the full glare of the world's media then too. It was shocking at the time.

Apparently mainland chinese tourists to HK are gobsmacked by the protests - they have never seen anything like it.

Thebodyloveschocolateandwine · 02/10/2014 00:47

No one thought for one minute that would have happened in 89 either.

It was totally unexpected and shocking and although the internet and FB weren't around trust me there were hundreds of journalists and camera lenses.

emotionsecho · 02/10/2014 00:56

Cranfieldmc I heard the Chinese government were not showing anything of the HK protests in mainland China fearing it may spark protests in other regions of China that are unhappy with Beijing. Maybe people are seeing or hearing things specifically slanted by the government to discredit the protesters hence the posts you are reading? I am not aware of any antagonism between the Chinese in HK and the Chinese in mainland China. HK has always been China's capitalist money making powerhouse, money flowed into China from there to support the Communist government even when it was a British Colony and when it reverted back to China in 1997 it was given special treatment in order to keep the money coming in. Maybe, though that special treatment has caused a degree of discontent in mainland China.

On the subject of the OP I don't think China will react as they did in Tiannamen Square by bringing in tanks but equally I don't think they will give in either and I can't see it ending entirely peacefully.

CaoNiMa · 02/10/2014 02:04

"am not aware of any antagonism between the Chinese in HK and the Chinese in mainland China." There is plenty, particularly on HK social media, where photos go viral of Mainlanders letting their kids pee on the Metro.

I live on the Mainland and spend a fair bit of time in HK. I am afraid of now this will play out.

emotionsecho · 02/10/2014 02:23

Thanks for the info CaoNiMa, what is the cause of the antagonism do you think? I had family in HK pre the handover things were obviously very different then.

What is the general feeling as to what the Beijing government will do?

PetrovaFossil1 · 02/10/2014 05:54

Emotions - I live in HK. The antagonism is mostly due to tension between HK-ers having traditionally had more rights/freedom than China and wanting to hang onto these against a backdrop of concern around the gradual erosion of these rights. There were big protests a couple of years ago when Beijing tried to change the history curriculum in HK to put a more pro-communism spin on the syllabus (I think also planning to teach that democracy in US/Europe has been a catastrophic failure).

Also the mainland Chinese are seen as less 'sophisticated' than HK-ers. They are described in the local press as 'locusts'.
For example coming to HK in HUGE groups and not knowing how to behave in public. The point around letting children go to the loo on the streets has caused a huge fuss, there have been several photos/videos taken even including people letting toddlers poo in plastic bags on the tables in restaurants (grim!). As far as I'm aware there is also a view by the mainlanders that HK-ers are snobby.

Living · 02/10/2014 06:08

I'm afraid of how it will play out as well. China's a very different country now to 1989 but it's got massive mainland civil arrest simmering below the surface (and popping up now and then but not organised). If it gives in in HK there's a real risk of an uprising in the mainland and the authorities know that.

Plus it's not a China that's ever done well at being backed into a corner. They need a way to resolve this without losing face and I'm not sure what it is.

meglet · 02/10/2014 08:49

Yanbu. I remember watching the Tianamen Sq story unfold over those few weeks Sad.

Maybe it will be different this time, 25yrs on, lessons learnt, more media presence... I don't know.

textingdisaster · 02/10/2014 09:11

democracy in US/Europe has been a catastrophic failure Confused how do they back that statement up?

I am scared of violence as well and really hope it doesn't come to that. I am very impressed by the protesters in Hong Kong. Their energy, idealism and peacefulness.

Ignorant question but why exactly does the Chinese government fear democracy to this extent? The reasons I can think of are: it is an entrenched ideology, the people at the top are very rich (?), losing control and the resulting civil unrest, economic problems as people protest against their slave wages...

From my naive position I suppose I look at the Chinese old guard and just think enough already - at some point you are going to have to move with the times.

Also very impressed by the demonstration here in London in support of the HK Chinese.

deXavia · 02/10/2014 09:14

I live in HK and even here its hard to predict. There are too many factors in play. Originally it was Occupy Central (with Peace and Love) who were organizing the National Day protests, then the Students became involved the weekend before and they are much more pro-action - all be it peacefully still. For example they are talking about barricading the Govt Offices from Friday, whereas Occupy Central were more "lets back off after National Day". There is a big generational clash here as well - in a broad sweeping stereotype Occupy Central tend to be older, more keen on incremental change, the Students younger and desiring radical change.

Unlike previous protests, I don't think there is one body organizing things - and so no one body of people to say how it will end. With the statements from the China Govt today, I think they hoped to scare the HK protestors into backing off, I think it will just make some of them - especially the younger ones - dig in and stay longer. And you have to look at some of the video feeds and maps to understand where they are - it would be like tens of thousand protestors camping out on the Mall in London - so just outside the main shopping areas, near to Government buildings, and with satellite protests in - I don't know, say - Covent Garden, Southbank and Lambeth (others feel free to disagree with the locations they were just top of mind examples to give an idea on how central this is)

However to move PLA in force onto HK would be a huge step (they do actually have garrison on island but not noticeably) I'm not sure the Chinese want to go that far. I think it will become a waiting game - and a media/social media game. But equally I can't see the Chinese Govt backing down - its too fundamental a change, with too many implications for the Mainland.

ReallyTired · 02/10/2014 09:54

China is a very different country to the UK. For example they have the death penalty for crimes like tax evasion or more frightenly counter revoluntary crimes.

At lot of the students protesting in Hong Kong are school children rather than university students. They don't look much older than my twelve year old. I also guess that many of them have no knowledge of the Tiananmen square massacre or realise the risks they are taking with their lives.

OP posts:
Bambambini · 02/10/2014 09:56

I don't see how the Chinese gov can give in to HK without it having a massive effect on the mainland. Maybe some compromises can be reached but how can they back down in front of the world and in front of their own mainland population. Wishing HK and the protesters well and hope they keep safe.

scandichick · 02/10/2014 09:57

One commentator mentioned the risk of capital flight from HK - basically financial institutions may decide to leave if it's not perceived as stable. This could make the Chinese government more inclined to compromise.

But then, to compromise at all would be a massive loss of face, so I just can't see that happening either... The more I read about it, the worse the stand-off seems.

emotionsecho · 02/10/2014 10:41

PetrovaFossil1 thanks for your really informative and interesting post. I did wonder after I'd posted whether the different lifestyle of the HK Chinese pre the handover and the special status granted to them afterwards had engendered resentment.

It's difficult to see how this will end well for the protesters as it hits right at the authority of the Beijing government.

Sallyingforth · 02/10/2014 12:23

One commentator mentioned the risk of capital flight from HK - basically financial institutions may decide to leave if it's not perceived as stable. This could make the Chinese government more inclined to compromise.

A few years ago the Chinese government would have been concerned, because HK was its major trading contact with the world.
That's no longer the case because of the huge developments on the mainland, and the big multinationals now have offices all over China.
I think the government might even allow HK to decline in relation to other major centres, in order to demonstrate that rebelling against the party line is counter-productive.

AggressiveBunting · 02/10/2014 12:42

Another HK'er here. This has been a really interesting week for me. I've been here five years and this is the first time I've become aware of my local friends' and colleagues' political views. Normally, people just don't discuss it. One thing that is very apparent, which I really didn't expect, is that it is very unclear how widespread the call for democracy is. Certainly there is a significant minority (if not majority) who are not unhappy with less than universal franchise and are broadly supportive of HK's eventual reabsorption into the mainland, whether this is due to accepting the inevitable or because they think it's a better way forward. So that was quite a revelation. I discussed this with a friend who's a professor of political science and she said it's highly possible, even under full suffrage, that HK would return a pro-mainland Chief Exec.

Anyway, where we are now is that we have had 4 days of continuous occupation of various sites within central HK with no violence or clashes between police and protesters at all. It is very clear that the government strategy is simply to wait it out, assuming things don't escalate, because the protestor numbers are already waning, and it could all fizzle out in a few more days (I think Monday 6th will be the test). People have been quite excited by all this (not much happens in these parts Grin), enjoyed doing their supply trips down to the trenches, and understanding of the fact that schools in central HK have been closed, they can't get to work etc, but patience is wearing a little thin in certain quarters. People like taxi drivers/ shop keepers are struggling to make a living this week.

I think that it's very unclear what, if anything, can be gained from continuing the protest now. It's been a huge PR success to date for the protesters but Beijing will not compromise at all whilst this is ongoing. It's not the Chinese way. The protestors have to offer a way out so that they can save face (this is seen as a Chinese thing but I think it's pretty universal actually- always better to let the one that needs to offer a better deal pretend it was their idea). Beijing have seen first hand that there is a pretty significant unhappy contingent. They may therefore be inclined to look for a greater concession, or they may not, but people sitting in central isn't going to be a factor in that. One of the challenges they have is that (IMO) China cannot cope with democracy right now (or possibly ever - too big). It would be a disaster of USSR proportions. China has changed. It has undergone massive reform, and that is too slow for many, but even it's greatest critics admit that it has come a long way. Whether it will become a full democracy on western lines remains to be seen, but it cannot concede democracy to HK at present without bringing a whole lot of trouble on itself.

On balance, I do not think the protests will become violent unless the students do try to occupy government buildings, and even then I think it will just be pepper spray and a less than gentle hauling into a van, not a bullet through the chest. I also think the western media has been quite irresponsible in reporting. Yes, tear gas was used on Sunday (widely condemned locally). It has not been used since and riot police were withdrawn early on Monday morning, but CNN and Sky keep showing footage of Sunday's confrontations with "Breaking News" underneath it, implying that it's ongoing, and from tweets I've seen, people in the UK are getting that impression.

AuntieStella · 02/10/2014 12:57

The news is reporting that there is a deadline of midnight to end the demonstrations. I think it is likely that the police/army will act in the small hours.

emotionsecho · 02/10/2014 13:04

But what will happen after the less than gentle hauling into the van? I think you're right there will be no overt violence in view of the media but I think behind the scenes China will make the students well aware of their displeasure.

AggressiveBunting · 02/10/2014 13:05

Auntie Not really- there's a deadline of midnight for the Chief Exec (CY Leung) to resign, which is the main demand of the protestors (which is a bit bizarre as it doesn't really solve anything- he'll just be replaced with another Beijing puppet). If he doesn't resign, a faction within the protestors is threatening to occupy certain (as yet undetermined) government buildings. This will obviously be prevented by force (as it would be if a group of people decided to occupy, for example, the MoD on Whitehall). However, if they just stay put, they'll still be there tomorrow, and the next day. If they wanted them gone from the streets, it would have happened by now.

This is obviously just my opinion though.

AggressiveBunting · 02/10/2014 13:10

emotion Nothing really- they'll get arrested for breach of the peace/ causing a public disturbance etc, fined, maybe short jail term in HK. One thing to be clear on is that HK law is still largely based on British law and the students will not be subject to Chinese mainland law for this. HK judiciary is very transparent- people don't just disappear etc. In HK you are completely entitled to stand in the middle of Exchange Square and shout "CY Leung can suck my cock" and no-one would do anything.

I should add though that I think storming/ occupying a government building is a really really stupid idea.

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